March 31st Recap:
LPL: 2 - 17 (-2.7275 units)
TOTAL: 2 - 17 (-2.7275 units)
TOTAL: 2 - 17 (-2.7275 units)
EDG/LGD (Net: -0.4775)
LGD can only do one thing well and it's snowball on people... sometimes. EDG played right into it in game one. I'll give credit to LGD for that one. Game two it looked like EDG were actually going to lose this series at the start of it before LGD got a bit lost by their own lane assignments and lost tempo advantage. Overall the takeaway from this is that EDG are surrendering objectives and are slow to lane assignments a bit too often for my liking. They're generally pretty smart in terms of big picture concepts and how to play a game out but they're just a tad slow in macro execution. I'd expect that to improve but that's a few series in a row now where it's been a problem.
Invictus/OMG (Net: -2.25)
I tweeted out about this one quite a bit but the long and short of it is that Invictus are so cocky and they completely get away with murder. I don't know what it is, maybe it's just a fear aura (a la fighting games), but teams just crumble with any kind of lead against them and it's not because Invictus are doing anything specifically proactive on defense. In other words, unforced errors from opposing teams benefit Invictus more than other teams, at least it feels that way. If they were doing things to force this stuff out I could spot that and give credit to it (sometimes they do), but so many teams just punt leads against this team and it's inexplicable. Oh well... LPL gonna LPL I suppose.
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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS!
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
2012 World Championship
Grand Finals
Taipei Assassins +500 (+1.5 @ +150)
vs
Azubu Frost -1000 (-1.5 @ -200)
Najin Sword? They shouldn't have been in this tournament anyway and definitely shouldn't have had a bye based on Spring results! Maknoon? Watch? Ssong? Pray? Cain? All over rated. Moscow Five? Cheese meet the stinky limburger. Warmog's Corki was a stupid idea anyway. This team is lucky as shit. FADE ALERT! Taiwan isn't even a major region.
Azubu Frost are probably the greatest team we've ever seen in League of Legends. Shy, Cloud Templar, RapidStar, Woong, and MadLife are the greatest players at their positions in the world.
This is a joke of a final. Only a fool would take TPA here. The magic ends!
Azubu 3-0 bet the mortgage on it.
Spread:
Azubu -2.5 maps @ whatever (50u whale play of the year)
Spread: Azubu -1.5 maps @ -200 (150u megalodon play of the year)
Moneyline: Azubu Frost -1000 (New York Stock Exchange Blue Chip Stock of the Decade 1000 units)
.....
Talk about a once in a century bad beat....
Seriously look at how far we've come though. Look at this shit!
Don't worry Deman and Jatt, I see you.
Appreciate how far we've come everyone.
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LPL (China)
Week 5 - Day 3
LNG eSports -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
vs
Dominus eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
Dominus eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Asura, Iwandy
Dominus: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
This will be the first game for Iwandy this year. My guess would be that it's a stylistic consideration. Typically teams that have multiple supports on the roster are either developing them for the future or to have two different roles. Duan has gotten a lot of flack for his play this season but overall hasn't been nearly as bad as public perception. His biggest issue is he almost entirely plays engagement based supports which leaves Asura to fend for himself way too often even in spots where he shouldn't have to. I'd guess this move probably has something to do with Taric being in the metagame or perhaps some niche mage picks bottom like Brand or Zyra to potentially punish opposing Taric selections. Taric has been absolutely nuts in the LPL given their teamfight heavy metagame. His ult is just insanely powerful in those situations.
I think a lot of people are going to look at Dominus' match against eStar as well as their previous win over the WeiYan-less Rogue Warriors and be optimistice for this team's trajectory. I'm not. eStar are a lot like Invictus in that they play the game in a way that could sometimes make the other team look competitive. People like watching fighting. It doesn't mean the enemy team is good just because they put up some kills against a team that gives up a lot of kills. It's like saying "man our baseball team has really been killing it the past few games" while they've faced three of the worst starting pitchers in the league.
I'm not buying Dominus. They can't really get much worse than they were and they'll probably take a game here or there but I think Iwandy might actually be a situational upgrade as long as he doesn't have first start nerves working against him. Subs have mostly worked out well for every team in the LPL or at least haven't been the reason they lose games most of the time. Given the metagame considerations this could be a good thing for LNG and Asura specifically who might finally get a helping hand in peeling Renektons and Aatroxes (Aatroxi?) off of him so he can do his job even better than he's already been doing it.
LNG actually have the second lowest AMOV this season only to Invictus. They're only winning games by an average of 9 kills and have won by 6, -8, 5, and 23 in their last four. Pretty wide range of outcomes there... Dominus actually have the 4th lowest AMOD in the LPL but they're also below league average in kills per loss which makes sense given that they tend to just roll over and die once they're behind (depressing right?).
This total is set at 26.5 which is a half above the league average of 26 kills per game and in a situation where I'd expect the under to come in. I like the under here but only because the total is too high. I wouldn't avoid this for DFS purposes. With Iwandy in I'd imagine LNG are going to go for a more protect-the-carry type look and those compositions tend to play lower kill games as they want to scale up and not fight early.
I'm going to go with LNG to sweep even with the sub in and under kill total as well as the over in time. LNG tend to be on the slower side when they do win games and if they're playing a more protect style composition that lends itself to that.
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ -102 (1.53 units)(Nitrogen)
Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ -127 (0.3175 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 kills @ -111 (0.2775 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ -112 (0.28 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 kills @ -139 (0.3475 units)
---
Vici Gaming +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
vs
eStar Gaming -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
At some point eStar are going to start losing some more games at the very least just by the nature of how they play. Vici have looked pretty good recently but I also think they've benefitted quite a bit from opposing teams making some real boneheaded plays (see the poorly executed dive onto Forge's Kassadin compliments of Duan to feed him a kill and start that snowballrolling...) ... I know I just finished saying Duan hasn't been that bad but he has had some real megastar moments like this one.
I went back and watched some of Vici's tape to see how they handle bottom side pressure and there just isn't a lot of it in their last few matches. They've been a very mid lane centric team which is one of the other less obvious ways to deal with eStars "always dive bot" gameplay that teams like Invictus and FunPlus have begun to adapt. Even typically bot centric teams like RNG didn't bother with it in their loss to Vici so we're really treading on some less frequently visited territory here.
I think the time to fade eStar is later this week against RNG. I have a detailed writeup on that match coming out on The Action Network hopefully later tonight so keep and eye out, sub over there, and get them page views up to support esports over at a great network!
Vici haven't really shown a particular ability to deal with bottom lane dives because they haven't had to but I know iBoy's propensity to feed and be overaggressive as well as his lack of ability to play well from behind which is what separates him from the elite ADC's in the world. This just seems like a terrible stylistic matchup other than Cube being able to play a great weakside game in the top lane.
It could happen. There's a chance Kkoma cooks something up but this team hasn't really played like a Kkoma team yet so it's difficult to tell what's going on. I also think that if Forge is going to play something that cedes priority and wave control in the mid lane that Vici's bottom lane is in for a bad time.
eStar win this one.
I'm actually staying away from the sides in this game but I do like the eStar OVER 15.5 kills. eStar have gone over 15.5 kills in 18 out of 24 games this season that's all games not just wins. In wins they've gone over that total 16 out of 18 times. Feels a bit low to me even considering Vici's below league average margin of defeat this season. If I thought Cube might try to play a split pusher that might be a reason to avoid it but I like eStar's ability to get over that number even in some losses if they happen to drop one here.
Map 1:
Kill Total: eStar OVER 15.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: eStar OVER 15.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
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Royal Never Give Up -11,111 (-1.5 @ -535)
vs
The One and Only Victory Five
+988 (+1.5 @ +329)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Clx, y4, Max
Victory Five punted YET ANOTHER lead. This time against FunPlus. That's about three times this season they've gotten a lead, a pretty big one at that and squandered it.
I'm not messing with this game. All the markets are so inflated that even kill spreads and totals are just whacked. RNG also tend to be methodical when they win. That said, this is the first truly easy opponent for them so maybe we see them open it up a little here. I'm just abstaining from this one. You can probably throw the -1.5 into parlays.
No wagers
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LCK (Korea)
Week 7 - Day 1
DragonX -535 (-1.5 @ -141)
vs
Sandbox +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
I got in on this a little earlier in the week but this is the lock of the week even at this number. Sandbox just got embarassed by APK and it wasn't even anything particular that APK did to merit the win, just screw ups by Sandbox. This team looks like it's in full dumpster fire mode. I'd expect that Summit and OnFleek return or Sandbox simply don't have the horses to keep up in this race. They're severely outclassed in every position which hasn't matter nearly as much this season unless it's a drastic difference. I think it is. Sandbox got a game the first time around but these were different teams then.
I'll direct you to my article on The Action Network that mentions this pick in more detail for the rest.
vs
Sandbox +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
I got in on this a little earlier in the week but this is the lock of the week even at this number. Sandbox just got embarassed by APK and it wasn't even anything particular that APK did to merit the win, just screw ups by Sandbox. This team looks like it's in full dumpster fire mode. I'd expect that Summit and OnFleek return or Sandbox simply don't have the horses to keep up in this race. They're severely outclassed in every position which hasn't matter nearly as much this season unless it's a drastic difference. I think it is. Sandbox got a game the first time around but these were different teams then.
I'll direct you to my article on The Action Network that mentions this pick in more detail for the rest.
Map Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -119 (2.38 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: DragonX -6.5 kills @ -147 (0.3675 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: DragonX -6.5 kills @ -125 (0.3125 units)
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Griffin +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
KT Rolster -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
You've got to love the way KT Rolster are playing right now. Veteran players in Korea have a bit of a different vibe than they do in other regions. There's a ton of pressure on new players to perform and mistakes are heavily criticized by the fan-bases even more so than other regions. Along with coaching, it's another factor that contributes to Korea's conservative playstyle. They don't like to make mistakes. When you have a crew of five well-established veterans (well maybe four, Bono still has a lot to prove), they're very comfortable with who they are and where they're at in their careers so they're much looser on stage. They also bring the discipline and veteran savvy that can steal you games and make you more consistent. It helps that Aiming is playing some of the best league of his career. People seem to have forgotten just how good some of these players are just because this team wasn't expected to do a lot. Start watching they're balling out.
I love this team right now and I don't think it's a fluke or that they're going to come to a crashing halt. These guys are playing really intelligently and confidently. This is exactly the kind of match a team that's feeling themselves loses but with a win over Afreeca and the ability to take a game lead in the playoff race, I don't think we'll see a rusty or sloppy KT Rolster here.
It's also an awful stylistic matchup for Griffin who seem to know how to jump out to a lead and then throw it just like a certain head coach's former team (lookin' at you H Dragon and Jin Air....). KT don't panic when they get behind but they've also been the best uptempo team in the LCK this split so they usually don't let anybody but the elite teams get ahead of them.
The time may come to fade KT Rolster but I don't think this is it.
Griffin are 1-10 straight up and 5-6 ATS as underdogs. They've also lost their last 8 series taking only four games in that span.
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -141 (1.41 units)
----
vs
KT Rolster -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
You've got to love the way KT Rolster are playing right now. Veteran players in Korea have a bit of a different vibe than they do in other regions. There's a ton of pressure on new players to perform and mistakes are heavily criticized by the fan-bases even more so than other regions. Along with coaching, it's another factor that contributes to Korea's conservative playstyle. They don't like to make mistakes. When you have a crew of five well-established veterans (well maybe four, Bono still has a lot to prove), they're very comfortable with who they are and where they're at in their careers so they're much looser on stage. They also bring the discipline and veteran savvy that can steal you games and make you more consistent. It helps that Aiming is playing some of the best league of his career. People seem to have forgotten just how good some of these players are just because this team wasn't expected to do a lot. Start watching they're balling out.
I love this team right now and I don't think it's a fluke or that they're going to come to a crashing halt. These guys are playing really intelligently and confidently. This is exactly the kind of match a team that's feeling themselves loses but with a win over Afreeca and the ability to take a game lead in the playoff race, I don't think we'll see a rusty or sloppy KT Rolster here.
It's also an awful stylistic matchup for Griffin who seem to know how to jump out to a lead and then throw it just like a certain head coach's former team (lookin' at you H Dragon and Jin Air....). KT don't panic when they get behind but they've also been the best uptempo team in the LCK this split so they usually don't let anybody but the elite teams get ahead of them.
The time may come to fade KT Rolster but I don't think this is it.
Griffin are 1-10 straight up and 5-6 ATS as underdogs. They've also lost their last 8 series taking only four games in that span.
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -141 (1.41 units)
----
T1 +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
vs
Gen.G -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
To me this series is close to even. Gen.G have been a bit more consistent but T1 have been more explosive by a tad. I''m going to go with the underdogs just for the value. Gen.G have also been keeping games relatively close recently. Typically when two juggernauts like this that are clean and disciplined, the games tend to be more lopsided than people want them to be because the execution is so crisp on both sides.
I actually think if I was ignoring the odds I'd take T1 to win this series right now. It doesn't mean they're a better team, just that I think they've looked sharper of late and if they were able to beat Gen.G earlier in the season when Canna was still getting comfortable I think they've got a better shot now. Of course there's the chance that Gen.G have been looking ahead to this match and that's why they've looked a little less sharp in their last couple matches.
I'm going to have a light wager on T1 and the T1 -1.5 but mostly just for value. This is going to be a great series between two world championship contenders. Enjoy it!
Moneyline: T1 +125 (0.5 units)
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.1 units)
vs
Gen.G -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
To me this series is close to even. Gen.G have been a bit more consistent but T1 have been more explosive by a tad. I''m going to go with the underdogs just for the value. Gen.G have also been keeping games relatively close recently. Typically when two juggernauts like this that are clean and disciplined, the games tend to be more lopsided than people want them to be because the execution is so crisp on both sides.
I actually think if I was ignoring the odds I'd take T1 to win this series right now. It doesn't mean they're a better team, just that I think they've looked sharper of late and if they were able to beat Gen.G earlier in the season when Canna was still getting comfortable I think they've got a better shot now. Of course there's the chance that Gen.G have been looking ahead to this match and that's why they've looked a little less sharp in their last couple matches.
I'm going to have a light wager on T1 and the T1 -1.5 but mostly just for value. This is going to be a great series between two world championship contenders. Enjoy it!
Moneyline: T1 +125 (0.5 units)
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.1 units)
Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
Parlay (3): LNG ML + DRX ML + KT ML @ -119 (1.19 units)
Triple Sweep Parlay (3): LNG -1.5 + DRX -1.5 + KT -1.5 @ +520 (0.1 units)
If your book lets you use RNG in parlays (none of mine are) then I like putting their -1.5 into any you want to play.
Parlay (3): LNG ML + DRX ML + KT ML @ -119 (1.19 units)
Triple Sweep Parlay (3): LNG -1.5 + DRX -1.5 + KT -1.5 @ +520 (0.1 units)
If your book lets you use RNG in parlays (none of mine are) then I like putting their -1.5 into any you want to play.
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