March 8th Recap:
LCS: 1 - 3 (-1.68 units)
TOTAL: 1 - 3 (-1.68 units)
--------------------------
CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
-------------------------
(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 2 - Day 1
OMG +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
LNG eSports -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
There are a bunch of substitutions for tomorrow but not in this match.
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, cold
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Asura, Duan
JD Gaming +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
JDG: 705 (sub), Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
FPX: Gimgoon (maybe sub?), Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
TOP eSports -154 (-1.5 @ +197)
vs
Royal Never Give Up +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, Yuyanjia (sub)
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty (sub), Ming
I'm taking a blanket approach to the LPL tomorrow even with the substitutions in mind. I'm treating this as another week one. Just to give you the rundown again, I love underdogs in week ones. With extra time to prepare, not only is there a more level playing field overall but also the chance that teams are simply unknowns and haven't been figured out yet. This happens frequently with teams that start hot and then get solved. Good teams tend to differentiate themselves the longer a season goes on as more and more adjustments need to be made. I also think the current metagame is extremely punishing to any mistakes so even some rust by the good teams can cause losses. As an added bonus, I think a few of these lines are just dead wrong and aren't factoring in the current forms of these teams after offseason roster moves. I do think that with the accelerated schedule in the LPL that we'll see that separation of good/bad teams much quicker than usual BUT there's also a chance that because of the schedule we'll see even more substitutions than normal (yet again favoring dogs most times). That's the angle I'm taking on this first week. I haven't changed my pre-season thoughts based on the scrim league or what we saw in week one but I'll post some of the numbers anyway.
Week One Trends/Info:
14 matches
Favorites went 9 - 5 straight up
Favorites went 5 - 9 against the spread
There were 2 underdog 2-0 victories (RW over Suning, EStar over RW)
There were 4 favorites 2-1 victories
7 out of 14 matches went to three games
Sett was disabled for the first three days of play
Those that follow me on Twitter already saw my OMG and JDG plays last week but I'll reiterate them here as well as my play on RNG. Keep in mind this is more of a blanket approach, I'm not putting too much weight on substitutions, especially since the ones here shouldn't have too much of a bearing on the results outside of maybe 705.
OMG/LNG
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -181 (1.81 units)
Moneyline: OMG +185 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +420 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
JDG/FPX
Spread: JDG +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)
Moneyline: JDG +160 (1 unit)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +375 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
TOP/RNG
Spread: RNG +1.5 maps @ -270 (2.7 units)
Moneyline: RNG +108 (1 unit)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +280 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
OMG +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
LNG eSports -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
There are a bunch of substitutions for tomorrow but not in this match.
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, cold
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Asura, Duan
JD Gaming +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
JDG: 705 (sub), Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
FPX: Gimgoon (maybe sub?), Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
TOP eSports -154 (-1.5 @ +197)
vs
Royal Never Give Up +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, Yuyanjia (sub)
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty (sub), Ming
I'm taking a blanket approach to the LPL tomorrow even with the substitutions in mind. I'm treating this as another week one. Just to give you the rundown again, I love underdogs in week ones. With extra time to prepare, not only is there a more level playing field overall but also the chance that teams are simply unknowns and haven't been figured out yet. This happens frequently with teams that start hot and then get solved. Good teams tend to differentiate themselves the longer a season goes on as more and more adjustments need to be made. I also think the current metagame is extremely punishing to any mistakes so even some rust by the good teams can cause losses. As an added bonus, I think a few of these lines are just dead wrong and aren't factoring in the current forms of these teams after offseason roster moves. I do think that with the accelerated schedule in the LPL that we'll see that separation of good/bad teams much quicker than usual BUT there's also a chance that because of the schedule we'll see even more substitutions than normal (yet again favoring dogs most times). That's the angle I'm taking on this first week. I haven't changed my pre-season thoughts based on the scrim league or what we saw in week one but I'll post some of the numbers anyway.
Week One Trends/Info:
14 matches
Favorites went 9 - 5 straight up
Favorites went 5 - 9 against the spread
There were 2 underdog 2-0 victories (RW over Suning, EStar over RW)
There were 4 favorites 2-1 victories
7 out of 14 matches went to three games
Sett was disabled for the first three days of play
Those that follow me on Twitter already saw my OMG and JDG plays last week but I'll reiterate them here as well as my play on RNG. Keep in mind this is more of a blanket approach, I'm not putting too much weight on substitutions, especially since the ones here shouldn't have too much of a bearing on the results outside of maybe 705.
OMG/LNG
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -181 (1.81 units)
Moneyline: OMG +185 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +420 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
JDG/FPX
Spread: JDG +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)
Moneyline: JDG +160 (1 unit)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +375 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
TOP/RNG
Spread: RNG +1.5 maps @ -270 (2.7 units)
Moneyline: RNG +108 (1 unit)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +280 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
------------------------
--------------------
LCS (North America)
Week 7 - Day 3
Immortals +246 vs Team Liquid -369
Cloud 9 -1408 vs Golden Guardians +593
While this isn't technically a "must win" for Immortals, they play TSM and FlyQuest next week. Their week nine schedule is easier with Dignitas and Evil Geniuses but still a loss here and a presumed two losses next week would put them to 6-10 and likely an 8-10 best. 8-10 has made the playoffs before in the LCS but it's not common. Immortals have looked pretty terrible of late dropping 5 of their last 6 including losses to 100 Thieves, Golden Guardians, Dignitas, and a struggling Evil Geniuses. They also lost to Cloud 9 but we'll throw that one out since they look to be elite. Their lone win in this time frame was to CLG in their second week with Pobelter. Admittedly CLG have looked better but I don't know if anybody would call them a good team. The point is that Immortals haven't had a quality win since beating Liquid in Broxah's first game after traveling from Europe just days earlier.
An upset would truly surprise me here but I'm also not going to lay -369 with Liquid as that's just a bit too rich. Expect Immortals to break out all the tricks for this one but I think Liquid, who are also in borderline "must win" mode, should be able to handle business here.
IMT/TL: No wager
I missed the fade C9 payoff with TSM this weekend but I'm going to take a shot on Golden Guardians here for a few reasons. First, now that the "playing for the perfect season" motivation is over I could see Cloud 9 wanting to show some new looks or try something different. They literally only need a single win to lock up the #1 seed so they have some wiggle room. Second is that Golden Guardians aren't bad. Third, Golden Guardians have been specifically good in the early and mid game with a 77% first tower rate, 62% first blood rate, and +362 gold differential at 15 mins (#4 in the league). In their first meeting, Cloud 9 ended up with a decisive victory but GGs did get the first tower and first blood. Fourth, I tend to like huge underdogs with great junglers because they often know how to blow a game open or introduce variance. Fifth, this is a must win for Golden Guardians even though they've won 5 of their last 8. Sixth is a trend, Golden Guardians are 6-7 as underdogs. Seventh, the best line I found (+640) line implies a 13.5% chance of winning and in a best of one region I'll almost always take a shot especially with a team coming off their first loss. Eighth, we don't know how Cloud 9 are going to respond to a loss because we haven't seen it yet, that unknown is intriguing.
In all likelihood Cloud 9 win this game but these odds are outrageous and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see a Golden Guardians victory here. We saw G2 lose twice in a weekend already this season and I think most people would consider them a better team than Cloud 9 even still.
I put the +640 in literally as I was writing this. I'm adding another half unit even though the line dropped to +600.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +640 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +600 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Immortals +246 vs Team Liquid -369
Cloud 9 -1408 vs Golden Guardians +593
While this isn't technically a "must win" for Immortals, they play TSM and FlyQuest next week. Their week nine schedule is easier with Dignitas and Evil Geniuses but still a loss here and a presumed two losses next week would put them to 6-10 and likely an 8-10 best. 8-10 has made the playoffs before in the LCS but it's not common. Immortals have looked pretty terrible of late dropping 5 of their last 6 including losses to 100 Thieves, Golden Guardians, Dignitas, and a struggling Evil Geniuses. They also lost to Cloud 9 but we'll throw that one out since they look to be elite. Their lone win in this time frame was to CLG in their second week with Pobelter. Admittedly CLG have looked better but I don't know if anybody would call them a good team. The point is that Immortals haven't had a quality win since beating Liquid in Broxah's first game after traveling from Europe just days earlier.
An upset would truly surprise me here but I'm also not going to lay -369 with Liquid as that's just a bit too rich. Expect Immortals to break out all the tricks for this one but I think Liquid, who are also in borderline "must win" mode, should be able to handle business here.
IMT/TL: No wager
I missed the fade C9 payoff with TSM this weekend but I'm going to take a shot on Golden Guardians here for a few reasons. First, now that the "playing for the perfect season" motivation is over I could see Cloud 9 wanting to show some new looks or try something different. They literally only need a single win to lock up the #1 seed so they have some wiggle room. Second is that Golden Guardians aren't bad. Third, Golden Guardians have been specifically good in the early and mid game with a 77% first tower rate, 62% first blood rate, and +362 gold differential at 15 mins (#4 in the league). In their first meeting, Cloud 9 ended up with a decisive victory but GGs did get the first tower and first blood. Fourth, I tend to like huge underdogs with great junglers because they often know how to blow a game open or introduce variance. Fifth, this is a must win for Golden Guardians even though they've won 5 of their last 8. Sixth is a trend, Golden Guardians are 6-7 as underdogs. Seventh, the best line I found (+640) line implies a 13.5% chance of winning and in a best of one region I'll almost always take a shot especially with a team coming off their first loss. Eighth, we don't know how Cloud 9 are going to respond to a loss because we haven't seen it yet, that unknown is intriguing.
In all likelihood Cloud 9 win this game but these odds are outrageous and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see a Golden Guardians victory here. We saw G2 lose twice in a weekend already this season and I think most people would consider them a better team than Cloud 9 even still.
I put the +640 in literally as I was writing this. I'm adding another half unit even though the line dropped to +600.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +640 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +600 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Parlays:
Parlay (Round Robin)
RNG ML + JDG ML + OMG ML
4 bets, 0.25u each
Total Risk: 1.0 units
Max Net: ~8.17 units
Worst Possible 2/3: +0.28 units
I think there is a very high likelihood of two or even three of these dogs winning outright tomorrow. We're going to put another unit as risk in a round robin parlay.
RNG ML + JDG ML + OMG ML
4 bets, 0.25u each
Total Risk: 1.0 units
Max Net: ~8.17 units
Worst Possible 2/3: +0.28 units
I think there is a very high likelihood of two or even three of these dogs winning outright tomorrow. We're going to put another unit as risk in a round robin parlay.
No comments:
Post a Comment