April 1st Recap:
LPL: 4 - 3 (-0.6275 units)
LCK: 2 - 4 (-3.3825 units)
Parlays: 0 - 2 (-1.29 units)
Total: 6 - 9 (-5.3 units)
LCK: 2 - 4 (-3.3825 units)
Parlays: 0 - 2 (-1.29 units)
Total: 6 - 9 (-5.3 units)
LNG/Dominus (Net: -1.6275)
Had the right read on what LNG wanted to do with Iwandy (Taric/defensive support) but it turns out without Duan they just sort of rolled over and died because nobody would pull the trigger. Right read, didn't give enough credit to the fact that they'd be missing that. Looked at it as a plus move in the meta, didn't factor in that the team would miss that element.
Vici/eStar (Net: +1.0)
eStar were going to lose at some point, I just figured it'd be RNG not Vici given their lack of bottom lane focused play this season. Forge played the best series of his life and has really looked on form. Still a competitive back and forth series.
RNG/Victory Five (no action)
... lol
DragonX/Sandbox (Net: -2.4975)
Sandbox managed to get the ball rolling too hard and too fast early in game two and even with the overall great scaling on DRX, the lack of magic damage was just too easy to itemize against. This one is frustrating because DRX dominated the other two games. They've shown a propensity to drop a game, might need to consider that moving forward but they're still an outstanding team.
T1 / Gen.G (Net: +0.525)
Excellent series from both teams but T1 are really starting to blow me out of the water. Early in the season they were a scaling, slow team and now they're winning with skirmish heavy compositions, outmaneuvering everyone in team fights, finding a way despite strange drafts a lot of the time to just play their way out of weird situations. I think that could be an issue moving forward but it's really awesome to see a top level Korean team actually playing more aggressively and trusting their ability to outplay. T1 are terrifying right now. Legitimately look like one of, if not the best team in the world and that's with a new top laner Canna who has been lights out this season. Impressive.
KT Rolster/Griffin (Net: -1.41)
KT had one of their first odd, non-coherent drafts of the year in game two of this series and were punished for it. It kind of looked like they drafted themselves into a corner and trapped themselves into a comp with not only limited win conditions but poor ones. Dominated game three. Griffin are showing some fight. I loved seeing the Tarzan Nocturne, a pick that I think is being underutilized right now. It can be difficult to navigate and it's very all-in by nature meaning if you get behind you're usually done but I think a lot of these tempo based teams or huge underdogs could benefit from a pick like that more often than they show.
-----
The bloodbath continues... This is probably the coldest I've run in the three years I've been doing this so I wanted to take a second and evaluate what I think might be happening and what I can do to improve.
The original intent of this blog was to serve as a check and balance to my process and to be able to back track and see what exactly I was thinking in certain positions so that I can learn from them moving forward.
I've stopped "listening to my own advice" way too often. An example. Prior to the season, I quickly idenfied that the season ten metagame was going to be extremely high variance compared to previous seasons. With the introduction of the new dragon/dragon soul as well as second rift herald to the map and changes to jungle experience (which have since been pseudo-reverted), the game was just naturally going to lend itself to being more snowbally. In some regions we see that manifest in faster, lopsided games. In most regions it's been a slow death. If you get ahead on dragons you're winning the game more often than not. Obviously there have been exceptions to that rule but generally speaking, the winner of the first fight gets control of the map unless they screw it up. Even bad teams will win some games this way.
So what did I do with this information/read? Early in the season I was all over the underdogs and it was a profitable endeavour. And then I stopped. Over the last few weeks I've been all over favorites over and over and over and most of them have missed. The underdogs I have been on have mostly missed.
I've let the film lie to me. It's admittedly a weakness in my evaluation. I am significantly more film heavy than trends, statistics, or any sort of modeling. As a former coach I trust what my eyes tell me on film. I can identify bad teams that are doing the right things regardless of what the numbers say. I can usually see through when a team is fraudulent. I've been very accurate at it over the years too but I think right now I'm giving way too much credit to good film and not enough credit to the built in variance in the game as it currently stands. It's not that I ignore value when I see it, I just haven't been putting enough stock into the concept that being better straight up matters less right now than it ever has and I've been stubborn in refusing to admit that.
Bottom line:
The game is closer to 50/50 than it's ever been primarily due to the design of the current iteration of the game.
I'm being too biased toward good teams and teams that are doing the right things when that doesn't matter nearly as much right now as the odds and embracing the variance that is season ten League of Legends and until that changes I'm going to shift to a more value centric approach.
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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS!
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 5 - Day 4
Team WE -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
LGD Gaming +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
Lineups:
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
LGD: Cult, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
vs
LGD Gaming +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
Lineups:
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
LGD: Cult, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
This line is down from the -260 / +172 it was at yesterday morning, likely because of reaction to yet another big underdog day in the LPL.
The LGD roster merry-go-round is almost around it's first spin with Cult making another appearance tonight against Team WE replacing "The Fenfen Experience." Fenfen wasn't bad but I think you get the idea of why I've disliked LGD's approach over the last few years.
We haven't seen Cult since before the hiatus where he played decently in all three games of a series in a 1-2 loss against LNG. Doesn't move the needle much for me unless it's because he has some spicy pick lined up to combat Morgan who has been surprisingly good this season.
LGD have been able to jump out to leads on people including EDG, Suning, and Invictus. Teacherma has been significantly better than he has been in his career as well. That said, I think this Team WE squad are going to be one to fade in the coming weeks. They aren't bad but they've been a bit overrated by a few good results. This is a gatekeeper team. Likely out of playoffs but better than the remainder of the field.
The metrics tell a similar story between these two so anybody looking through the lens of a statistical model is probably going to like LGD quite a bit in this spot but I don't. Underdog moneylines have been a profitable endeavour in the LPL this split but only because OMG and eStar have pushed it into the green. This feels like a 3 game series but not at the odds we have to pay. WE haven't lost to a bad team, I almost think they're due but I'll take the WE moneyline to win half a unit here. Because of the uncertainty of how exactly they'll do it I'm just sticking to the moneyline on this one.
Moneyline: Team WE -193 (0.965 units)
(Nitrogen)
---The LGD roster merry-go-round is almost around it's first spin with Cult making another appearance tonight against Team WE replacing "The Fenfen Experience." Fenfen wasn't bad but I think you get the idea of why I've disliked LGD's approach over the last few years.
We haven't seen Cult since before the hiatus where he played decently in all three games of a series in a 1-2 loss against LNG. Doesn't move the needle much for me unless it's because he has some spicy pick lined up to combat Morgan who has been surprisingly good this season.
LGD have been able to jump out to leads on people including EDG, Suning, and Invictus. Teacherma has been significantly better than he has been in his career as well. That said, I think this Team WE squad are going to be one to fade in the coming weeks. They aren't bad but they've been a bit overrated by a few good results. This is a gatekeeper team. Likely out of playoffs but better than the remainder of the field.
The metrics tell a similar story between these two so anybody looking through the lens of a statistical model is probably going to like LGD quite a bit in this spot but I don't. Underdog moneylines have been a profitable endeavour in the LPL this split but only because OMG and eStar have pushed it into the green. This feels like a 3 game series but not at the odds we have to pay. WE haven't lost to a bad team, I almost think they're due but I'll take the WE moneyline to win half a unit here. Because of the uncertainty of how exactly they'll do it I'm just sticking to the moneyline on this one.
Moneyline: Team WE -193 (0.965 units)
(Nitrogen)
BiliBili Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
vs
Rogue Warriors +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
Lineups:
BLG: ADD, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
RW: Holder, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
By now I think most people know that I have BiliBili pegged as the best candidate for a second half run and with Rogue Warriors getting crushed against Dominus in their first match without their former jungler AND the fact that Holder is rejoining the top lane over the superior (in my opinion) Crazy makes me absolutely love BiliBili in this spot. We get the added bonus that I much prefer the ADD in the top lane version of this BiliBili lineup for draft leverage.
All but two of BiliBili's wins have been by double digits this season and RW haven't been graceful losers with one of the highest AMOD's in the league at 11.38 kills.
While BiliBili are just 1-3 as favorites, RW are just 2-4 as underdogs and only 3-3 ATS in those matches. BiliBili are a turnaround team with a good second half trajectory. They finally appear to have settled on a better lineup and Rogue Warriors are potentially on dumpster fire alert.
Moneyline: BiliBili -333 (1.665 units)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +103 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: BiliBili -7.5 kills @ +109 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: BiliBili -8.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: BiliBili -9.5 kills @ +155 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: BiliBili -7.5 kills @ +113 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: BiliBili -8.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
---
TOP eSports -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
vs
Suning Gaming +197 (+1.5 @ -167)
Lineups:
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
Suning: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
This is just a value dog for me. I like what TOP have been doing recently, which is finally figuring out that Aphelios is a really busted character, but Suning are by no means a bad team. By no means am I calling TOP fraudulent, as a matter of fact they're more or less delivering on preseason expectations in a roundabout way but I think Suning find a way to get a game in this spot. I question how they take the series with the mismatch on the top side of the map but I'm fairly ocnfident they get a game.
Underdog spreads in the LPL are 47 out of 79 on the season.
TOP are 5-2 as favorites but only 3-4 ATS.
Suning are 3-3 as underdogs and 4-2 ATS. Their only losses were to Invictus and FunPlus.
TOP have one of the shorter margins of victory in the LPL at 8.83, well below the league average of 10.55. They've covered by double digits in only 6 of their 12 wins.
Suning are above league average margin of defeat of 10.25 kills. They sit at 9.5. 6 out of 14 losses were by 6 or less.
TOP have the second lowest kill per win total in the LPL averaging just 15.17 and 15.8 in their last five.
Suning also have the third highest kill per loss total in the league at 11.07 well above league average but have just three kills in their two most recent losses.
Suning should keep this competitive and with playoff stakes potentially on the line for both squads (looking ahead a bit) I think this might be a bit tighter than usual. The data indicates this should be an under and in those spots I tend to favor the kill spread, especially on a new patch.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -139 (1.39 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -116 (0.29 units)
Kill Spread: Suning +7.5 kills @ -169 (0.4225 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (0.354 units)
Kill Spread: Suning +7.5 kills @ -164 (0.41 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
---------------------------------------------
Week 7 - Day 2
(all at 5Dimes)
----
Underdog spreads in the LPL are 47 out of 79 on the season.
TOP are 5-2 as favorites but only 3-4 ATS.
Suning are 3-3 as underdogs and 4-2 ATS. Their only losses were to Invictus and FunPlus.
TOP have one of the shorter margins of victory in the LPL at 8.83, well below the league average of 10.55. They've covered by double digits in only 6 of their 12 wins.
Suning are above league average margin of defeat of 10.25 kills. They sit at 9.5. 6 out of 14 losses were by 6 or less.
TOP have the second lowest kill per win total in the LPL averaging just 15.17 and 15.8 in their last five.
Suning also have the third highest kill per loss total in the league at 11.07 well above league average but have just three kills in their two most recent losses.
Suning should keep this competitive and with playoff stakes potentially on the line for both squads (looking ahead a bit) I think this might be a bit tighter than usual. The data indicates this should be an under and in those spots I tend to favor the kill spread, especially on a new patch.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -139 (1.39 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -116 (0.29 units)
Kill Spread: Suning +7.5 kills @ -169 (0.4225 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (0.354 units)
Kill Spread: Suning +7.5 kills @ -164 (0.41 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
---------------------------------------------
LCK (Korea)
Week 7 - Day 2
Afreeca Freecs -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
vs
APK Prince +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
Don't buy the APK hype. Draft matters a lot and their coaching staff has been creative in finding ways to win the draft with vastly inferior players but Afreeca are coming off of an embarassing loss to Sandbox and a shellacking at the hands of Gen.G. They need this win to keep pace with KT Rolster at this point. What was looking to be a surefire 4th place team has been slipping.
Feels like a get right spot for Afreeca. Afreeca are being slightly devalued based on back to back losses and APK are being overvalued based on a win against a poor Sandbox team.
That said, Afreeca aren't exactly destroying people when they win. Their uptempo, skirmish oriented playstyle tends to lead to a lot more fighting than you'd think leading them to have the lowest average margin of victory in the LCK. However, they've won by double digits in their last five wins and seven of their past ten even though they were last week.
It's no surprise that APK have the largest margin of defeat in the league and I think we're actually getting a value based on Afreeca's recent losses and season long average in this spot. We'll take the plus odds kill spreads on maps one and two as well.
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +103 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: Afreeca -7.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Afreeca -8.5 kills @ +143 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: Afreeca -7.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Afreeca -8.5 kills @ +139 (0.1 units)
vs
APK Prince +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
Don't buy the APK hype. Draft matters a lot and their coaching staff has been creative in finding ways to win the draft with vastly inferior players but Afreeca are coming off of an embarassing loss to Sandbox and a shellacking at the hands of Gen.G. They need this win to keep pace with KT Rolster at this point. What was looking to be a surefire 4th place team has been slipping.
Feels like a get right spot for Afreeca. Afreeca are being slightly devalued based on back to back losses and APK are being overvalued based on a win against a poor Sandbox team.
That said, Afreeca aren't exactly destroying people when they win. Their uptempo, skirmish oriented playstyle tends to lead to a lot more fighting than you'd think leading them to have the lowest average margin of victory in the LCK. However, they've won by double digits in their last five wins and seven of their past ten even though they were last week.
It's no surprise that APK have the largest margin of defeat in the league and I think we're actually getting a value based on Afreeca's recent losses and season long average in this spot. We'll take the plus odds kill spreads on maps one and two as well.
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +103 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: Afreeca -7.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Afreeca -8.5 kills @ +143 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: Afreeca -7.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Afreeca -8.5 kills @ +139 (0.1 units)
----
DAMWON Gaming -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
vs
Hanwha Life eSports +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
DAMWON are capable of 2-0ing this series but their stubbornness has gotten the best of them this season. They're still playing the game like it's 2019. It's not. Mistakes are way more likely to lose you a game on the spot in this iteration of the game. Hanwha Life have been cheesy, weird drafters even though I don't think they necessarily have to be.
My gut tells me DAMWON remind everyone who they are and smash this series but the numbers and trends tell a different story. DAMWON are a way better team but not in 2020. I actualy like Hanwha Life in this spot. Before the season I never would have told you that but here we are. There's also a strong possibility that Hanwha have some random pick, maybe the new 10.6 Wukong, to throw DAMWON, who are obviously poor at adjusting, for a loop.
If you like DAMWON to take this down 2-0 then you can take that map spread and kill spreads as Hanwha tend to get demolished when they lose with near APK numbers in losses.
Spread: Hanwha Life +1.5 maps @ -196 (0.98 units)
Moneyline: Hanwha +169 (0.25 units)
----
vs
Hanwha Life eSports +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
DAMWON are capable of 2-0ing this series but their stubbornness has gotten the best of them this season. They're still playing the game like it's 2019. It's not. Mistakes are way more likely to lose you a game on the spot in this iteration of the game. Hanwha Life have been cheesy, weird drafters even though I don't think they necessarily have to be.
My gut tells me DAMWON remind everyone who they are and smash this series but the numbers and trends tell a different story. DAMWON are a way better team but not in 2020. I actualy like Hanwha Life in this spot. Before the season I never would have told you that but here we are. There's also a strong possibility that Hanwha have some random pick, maybe the new 10.6 Wukong, to throw DAMWON, who are obviously poor at adjusting, for a loop.
If you like DAMWON to take this down 2-0 then you can take that map spread and kill spreads as Hanwha tend to get demolished when they lose with near APK numbers in losses.
Spread: Hanwha Life +1.5 maps @ -196 (0.98 units)
Moneyline: Hanwha +169 (0.25 units)
----
DragonX -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
KT Rolster +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
This is an absolutely fascinating matchup between the 3rd and 4th teams in the LCK based on overall performance this season. KT Rolster, the crew of savvy veterans, have been mostly rolling over everyone after opening the season on a four game losing streak. DragonX are coming off of a weird past few matches but are likely still the gatekeeper between the elite teams like T1 and Gen.G and the rest of the LCK.
I mention on the podcast this week that just because DragonX have disappointed doesn't mean they've been a bad team. Quite the contrary. My guess is DragonX win this series but I'm hesitatnt to get in the way of this KT Rolster train at the moment.
If DragonX were coming off of consecutive wins or something this would be different but it should speak volumes that I agree with the book here and that DragonX are still a -190 favorite against a team that's won six straight series should be respected.
I do, however, absolutely love the time under in this spot. The books have this set at a juiced 35:00 I'd assume based on the LCK average game time of 33:59 and two fairly close and competitive teams battling it out. KT Rolster have been the fastest team in the LCK with an average game time of 31:56 and DragonX have been pretty quick themselves with 33:33.
Two of DragonX's past seven games (wins and losses) were over 34 minutes.
One of KT Rolster's past eight games was over 34 minutes.
More than half of both have ended under the 30:00 mark.
I have no idea why this number is set so high but we're going to strike. Both teams are very capable uptempo teams and tend to close wins in a hurry. Regardless of who wins I think the under map time is a great play.
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 35:00 @ -159 (0.795 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 35:00 @ -169 (0.845 units)
vs
KT Rolster +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
This is an absolutely fascinating matchup between the 3rd and 4th teams in the LCK based on overall performance this season. KT Rolster, the crew of savvy veterans, have been mostly rolling over everyone after opening the season on a four game losing streak. DragonX are coming off of a weird past few matches but are likely still the gatekeeper between the elite teams like T1 and Gen.G and the rest of the LCK.
I mention on the podcast this week that just because DragonX have disappointed doesn't mean they've been a bad team. Quite the contrary. My guess is DragonX win this series but I'm hesitatnt to get in the way of this KT Rolster train at the moment.
If DragonX were coming off of consecutive wins or something this would be different but it should speak volumes that I agree with the book here and that DragonX are still a -190 favorite against a team that's won six straight series should be respected.
I do, however, absolutely love the time under in this spot. The books have this set at a juiced 35:00 I'd assume based on the LCK average game time of 33:59 and two fairly close and competitive teams battling it out. KT Rolster have been the fastest team in the LCK with an average game time of 31:56 and DragonX have been pretty quick themselves with 33:33.
Two of DragonX's past seven games (wins and losses) were over 34 minutes.
One of KT Rolster's past eight games was over 34 minutes.
More than half of both have ended under the 30:00 mark.
I have no idea why this number is set so high but we're going to strike. Both teams are very capable uptempo teams and tend to close wins in a hurry. Regardless of who wins I think the under map time is a great play.
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 35:00 @ -159 (0.795 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 35:00 @ -169 (0.845 units)
Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): Afreeca ML + BiliBili ML @ -145 (1.45 units)
Parlay (2): Afreeca ML + BiliBili ML @ -145 (1.45 units)
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