March 10th Recap:
LPL: 1 - 3 (-2.12 units)
Live : 1 - 1 (+0.065 units)
TOTAL: 2 - 4 (-2.055 units)
Suning and eStar wasn't too much better although they both showed signs of good things. Both teams were able to snowball a game, Suning successfully in game two, eStar not so successfully in game one where it took ocean soul, multiple elder buffs, and multiple barons to close it out while Huanfeng managed 81k damage on Ezreal. Suning decided to try to abuse the Rumble mid in game three with Elise+Renekton which I like (also had Naut bot to help) but they just couldn't get enough done.
My beef isn't with Elise or "sinner" champions, it's that teams pick them and then just play as they normally would. If there is proactive defense happening from the other side you can point to those things and say "oh well this is why it didn't work, XYZ did AB and C to track W and maintained scuttle control" or whatever. That's one thing. Most of the time teams pick the Elise and just immediately stray from their game plan or even worse, play it like it's just any other champion with zero sense of urgency about the fact that it DOES NOTHING later. Olaf same issue, etc. I like the champions but you have to alter the way you play. If you're not going to do that, don't both with it. Throw the tier list out the window and figure a new direction.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 2 - Day 3
OMG +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
Royal Never Give Up -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, icon, Smlz, cold
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
OMG and LNG played a ridiculously fast paced game one where the no-farm Senna+Tahm just ended up being too much to deal with despite a decent counter idea with the Bard for OMG. Game two, we saw Flandre try his hand at the top lane Janna vs Sett but the rest of the map was once again super fast paced and back and forth. Eventually OMG came out on top with a couple of won team fights but this was probably the best game we've seen this split in terms of pace, quality, and individual play. Game three was another blistering game that was looking to be going in LNG's favor before OMG managed to really MF + Sett ult combo to wipe LNG and take a baron and eventually the game off of it even after a 4th dragon steal resulted in an ocean soul for LNG. LNG made a few mistakes in game three in terms of team fight positioning but OMG played the fights brilliantly. Curse looked unbelievable on Sett.
RNG looked arguably the cleanest of all the LPL teams we've seen in both weeks of play so far. That feels weird to say not just because it's RNG and "clean" in the same sentence but because of the six week layover. Really though RNG cleanly dispatched of TOP who, all of last year, were the disciplined and clean team in the LPL amongst a sea of chaos. TOP got absolutely rocked in this series. XLB looks like the real deal and along with Langx they're going to terrorize a lot of the league. Betty seems to be enjoying his new home in the LPL and has picked up exactly where he left off with a ridiculous 22/2/12 scoreline over the two games. It was against the new bottom lane of Photic and substitute support Yuyanjia but still an impressive performance.
This is really tough. I loved OMG looking ahead to this week but RNG have looked squeaky clean. That said, I do think TOP looked much worse than expected because of their bottom lane. It wasn't the reason they lost, they were legitimately outplayed by the top trio, but something felt off about TOP in this series. Maybe they were caught off guard by the Trundle in game one but it's troubling that a team as good as TOP were last year managed to lose decisively with the Ornn+Sejuani combo. TOP literally lost game two with Ornn, Sej, Aphelios, and Yuumi, all four of which are premium power picks right now. TOP just couldn't keep up with the pace of RNG.
OMG showed the ability to play with pace against LNG who looked much better than they did at any point last year. The change of scenery for Maple appears to be working so far. This is the kind of gameplay that I think you need to have in the LPL right now. Most of these teams simply aren't disciplined enough to play defense and for scaling. You want to be playing fast, in-your-face League of Legends right now.
Earlier in the week I loved the prospect of getting OMG at such a ridiculous number. I'm slightly less enamored with it after seeing RNG dismantle TOP but I still think the value is just too good to pass up in this metagame. OMG also just looked pretty good against LNG. I still think the game itself is high variance and I don't want to entirely judge too much based on the first games back for both teams. I'll be sticking with my OMG call here even if I'm a little bit less confident than I was last week about it. It's rare to get this kind of number with a good team. There's a chance OMG aren't good but I'm betting against it.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ +125 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: OMG +435 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +775 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
---
Team WE -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
Victory Five -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
Lineups:
Team WE: Morgan, Beishang, Plex, Jiumeng, Missing
Victory Five: Aliez, As6, Mole, y4, clx (sub*)
* clx is designated as a top lane sub but will be playing support
The last time we saw both of these teams was in mid-January and it was far from inspiring. However, a lot can change in six weeks. Both teams had challenging matchups. WE perhaps had the more challenging of the two facing off against the new look JDG and they were utterly destroyed. Victory Five faced off against a slightly downgraded EDG, in my opinion and while game two went on for awhile they weren't really ever likely to win it.
I'm assuming both of these teams will end up on the weaker end of the spectrum in the LPL but I do think that with this much time to prepare you can fix a lot. Now, I said that about LGD and Dominus this morning and that was CLEARLY NOT THE CASE but perhaps those will be outliers. I think WE are the stronger roster here but I wouldn't be caught dead laying -141. Beishang is the strongest individual player in the game but not enough to swing the tables that much. Clx is going to be playing an offrole as a sub but who knows how much time he's had to practice with the team, maybe he's an upgrade over Max (who went 0/13/1 in the last series).
Normally in spots like this I like taking both teams to 2-0 (or -1.5). A lot of times with these weaker teams one has a good plan or one just shows better on the day and it's not always close just because they're close in the rankings. With the long layoff and time to plan I'm going to trust these teams to look at least decent in this series and keep it close. Maybe they'll each have a niche strategy prepared and steal games that way. I'm taking the OVER 2.5 maps as I like to do in week ones. I'd lean to WE but I'm going to wait to see if I can find a better line closer to even money.
Map Total: OVER 2.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
---
Vici Gaming +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
Invictus Gaming -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Chieftain, Zeka (sub), iBoy, Hang (sub)
Invictus: TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
I'm so so SO happy that Zeka is getting the start. Forge was mostly terrible from what we saw in the first week and in Demacia Cup and as mentioned multiple times both here and on the podcast, I thought he'd be a huge liability for this Vici team that's already running iBoy.
Invictus managed to take down FPX 2-1 in match one way back on January 13th. We've now seen FPX against JDG and Invictus, probably their two strongest competitors based on my pre-season expectations. DO NOT SLEEP ON FPX but that's FPX, this is about Invictus. In their only other match before the break, Invictus obliterated Dominus which is to be expected given the overall quality of that roster (and even more so after today). IG are still IG but I think this is a tough spot for anybody to be favored by this much.
I'm going with a bit of a narrative on this one. I actually trust Kkoma as a coach. He might not be the four dimensional chess player that he used to be but he's been a tremendous coach, arguably the best ever, over the years. He's actually had time to work with the team now instead of jumping in right at the start of the season. My only reserveration is that he's going to try to play slow and controlled with a team that isn't built to do that, other than that I absolutely love this spot. We have the extra preparation time with a known good coach, typical week one variables, substitution of a known liability, the high variance metagame, and another substitution that I'm going to trust is a good idea. Similar to the first series on this slate, I just think this number is too big given the extra time to prepare and we're going to take a shot on the underdogs.
Spread: Vici +1.5 maps @ +105 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Vici +400 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +775 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
OMG +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
Royal Never Give Up -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, icon, Smlz, cold
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
OMG and LNG played a ridiculously fast paced game one where the no-farm Senna+Tahm just ended up being too much to deal with despite a decent counter idea with the Bard for OMG. Game two, we saw Flandre try his hand at the top lane Janna vs Sett but the rest of the map was once again super fast paced and back and forth. Eventually OMG came out on top with a couple of won team fights but this was probably the best game we've seen this split in terms of pace, quality, and individual play. Game three was another blistering game that was looking to be going in LNG's favor before OMG managed to really MF + Sett ult combo to wipe LNG and take a baron and eventually the game off of it even after a 4th dragon steal resulted in an ocean soul for LNG. LNG made a few mistakes in game three in terms of team fight positioning but OMG played the fights brilliantly. Curse looked unbelievable on Sett.
RNG looked arguably the cleanest of all the LPL teams we've seen in both weeks of play so far. That feels weird to say not just because it's RNG and "clean" in the same sentence but because of the six week layover. Really though RNG cleanly dispatched of TOP who, all of last year, were the disciplined and clean team in the LPL amongst a sea of chaos. TOP got absolutely rocked in this series. XLB looks like the real deal and along with Langx they're going to terrorize a lot of the league. Betty seems to be enjoying his new home in the LPL and has picked up exactly where he left off with a ridiculous 22/2/12 scoreline over the two games. It was against the new bottom lane of Photic and substitute support Yuyanjia but still an impressive performance.
This is really tough. I loved OMG looking ahead to this week but RNG have looked squeaky clean. That said, I do think TOP looked much worse than expected because of their bottom lane. It wasn't the reason they lost, they were legitimately outplayed by the top trio, but something felt off about TOP in this series. Maybe they were caught off guard by the Trundle in game one but it's troubling that a team as good as TOP were last year managed to lose decisively with the Ornn+Sejuani combo. TOP literally lost game two with Ornn, Sej, Aphelios, and Yuumi, all four of which are premium power picks right now. TOP just couldn't keep up with the pace of RNG.
OMG showed the ability to play with pace against LNG who looked much better than they did at any point last year. The change of scenery for Maple appears to be working so far. This is the kind of gameplay that I think you need to have in the LPL right now. Most of these teams simply aren't disciplined enough to play defense and for scaling. You want to be playing fast, in-your-face League of Legends right now.
Earlier in the week I loved the prospect of getting OMG at such a ridiculous number. I'm slightly less enamored with it after seeing RNG dismantle TOP but I still think the value is just too good to pass up in this metagame. OMG also just looked pretty good against LNG. I still think the game itself is high variance and I don't want to entirely judge too much based on the first games back for both teams. I'll be sticking with my OMG call here even if I'm a little bit less confident than I was last week about it. It's rare to get this kind of number with a good team. There's a chance OMG aren't good but I'm betting against it.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ +125 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: OMG +435 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +775 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
---
Team WE -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
Victory Five -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
Lineups:
Team WE: Morgan, Beishang, Plex, Jiumeng, Missing
Victory Five: Aliez, As6, Mole, y4, clx (sub*)
* clx is designated as a top lane sub but will be playing support
The last time we saw both of these teams was in mid-January and it was far from inspiring. However, a lot can change in six weeks. Both teams had challenging matchups. WE perhaps had the more challenging of the two facing off against the new look JDG and they were utterly destroyed. Victory Five faced off against a slightly downgraded EDG, in my opinion and while game two went on for awhile they weren't really ever likely to win it.
I'm assuming both of these teams will end up on the weaker end of the spectrum in the LPL but I do think that with this much time to prepare you can fix a lot. Now, I said that about LGD and Dominus this morning and that was CLEARLY NOT THE CASE but perhaps those will be outliers. I think WE are the stronger roster here but I wouldn't be caught dead laying -141. Beishang is the strongest individual player in the game but not enough to swing the tables that much. Clx is going to be playing an offrole as a sub but who knows how much time he's had to practice with the team, maybe he's an upgrade over Max (who went 0/13/1 in the last series).
Normally in spots like this I like taking both teams to 2-0 (or -1.5). A lot of times with these weaker teams one has a good plan or one just shows better on the day and it's not always close just because they're close in the rankings. With the long layoff and time to plan I'm going to trust these teams to look at least decent in this series and keep it close. Maybe they'll each have a niche strategy prepared and steal games that way. I'm taking the OVER 2.5 maps as I like to do in week ones. I'd lean to WE but I'm going to wait to see if I can find a better line closer to even money.
Map Total: OVER 2.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
---
Vici Gaming +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
Invictus Gaming -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Chieftain, Zeka (sub), iBoy, Hang (sub)
Invictus: TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
I'm so so SO happy that Zeka is getting the start. Forge was mostly terrible from what we saw in the first week and in Demacia Cup and as mentioned multiple times both here and on the podcast, I thought he'd be a huge liability for this Vici team that's already running iBoy.
Invictus managed to take down FPX 2-1 in match one way back on January 13th. We've now seen FPX against JDG and Invictus, probably their two strongest competitors based on my pre-season expectations. DO NOT SLEEP ON FPX but that's FPX, this is about Invictus. In their only other match before the break, Invictus obliterated Dominus which is to be expected given the overall quality of that roster (and even more so after today). IG are still IG but I think this is a tough spot for anybody to be favored by this much.
I'm going with a bit of a narrative on this one. I actually trust Kkoma as a coach. He might not be the four dimensional chess player that he used to be but he's been a tremendous coach, arguably the best ever, over the years. He's actually had time to work with the team now instead of jumping in right at the start of the season. My only reserveration is that he's going to try to play slow and controlled with a team that isn't built to do that, other than that I absolutely love this spot. We have the extra preparation time with a known good coach, typical week one variables, substitution of a known liability, the high variance metagame, and another substitution that I'm going to trust is a good idea. Similar to the first series on this slate, I just think this number is too big given the extra time to prepare and we're going to take a shot on the underdogs.
Spread: Vici +1.5 maps @ +105 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Vici +400 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +775 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
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Parlays:
none for now
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