March 11th Recap:
LPL: 1 - 7 (-2.125 units)
TOTAL: 1 - 7 (-2.125 units)
This second match I'm kicking myself for not taking WE in. Victory Five likely should have taken game two in this series. y4 was absolutely massive in game two and just decided he didn't think the enemy team would ever try to kill him the way he was positioning in fights. They scored kills on him in back to back fights and the game turned from there. If Victory Five can't win with a seven kill, massively ahead carry against WE that's concerning. If they can't do better than this after six extra weeks of preparation and getting whooped in game one? I think Victory Five might be the worst team in the league. Their "solo lanes" no longer have the mystery factor that they had last year because every team is flexing their solo lanes. That was almost their entire edge.
Vici and Invictus both infuriated me this morning. As fun as it was to watch TheShy get tremendously fed on Kalista top, the fact is Invictus should have lost game one. They were ahead and threw, then Vici re-threw, then Invictus threw again, then Vici threw again... can you tell the LPL triggers me sometimes? Ooof... Well, in good news I do think both these teams are going to be in the top half of the table and it was good to see a non-Forge mid laner for Vici. I think this team is likely going to dominate the bottom half teams even if they struggle against the elite ones.
--------------------------
CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
-------------------------
(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 2 - Day 4
LGD +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
eStar Gaming -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
This is a weird one. On one hand, LGD look so terrible that I'm tempted by the plus money on the eStar -1.5, but I also don't trust that eStar is the real deal yet even though they've looked decent so far. Something about not being able to close out a game with ocean soul, two barons, and two elder buffs just can't be forgotten easily.
I think eStar is probably the side here but I don't trust them. This is going to be a pass.
No wager
---
LNG eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
BiliBili Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Asura, Duan
BiliBili: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
The last time we saw BiliBili was before the hiatus when they played an absolute slugfest of a match against RNG that they ended up taking down 2-1 after losing game one. I commented that both teams looked very disciplined relative to this region. RNG have looked that part so far, I'd expect the same from BiliBili who have looked that way over the last year or so.
LNG actually impressed me in their match against OMG in the first day back. Both teams were playing at a blistering pace and pushing their advantages appropriately. OMG look like a legitimate contender after challenging an RNG team that looks outstanding and LNG appear very similar.
This is a fascinating matchup. Meteor vs Xx in a battle of two of the stronger junglers in the league, Maple and FoFo, two former LMS stars. The storylines are plentiful. To me, this is two teams that are playing different styles very well and both can work. Personally I prefer the way BiliBili tends to play, limiting mistakes, controlling the map, and utilizing leverage with a lot of discipline but LNG look to be favoring an uptempo style that's perfect for disrupting that.
I like BiliBili to win this match but these odds should be much much closer than this and because of that we're going to stick with the value and take the underdog. II think this is a 60-40 matchup which implies roughly a -150 or so range meaning we're getting a ton of value on both the moneyline and the +1.5.
Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ -130 (1.3 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: LNG +265 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +530 (0.1 units)(5Dimes)
---
EDward Gaming -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
Suning Gaming +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
Lineups:
EDG: Xiaoxiang, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Suning: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
For those of you following the spreadsheet and my Twitter you saw that there was a lot of news about this game. On Monday morning Ran (@ran_lpl) tweeted out that EDG would be playing without Jiejie, Xinyi, Jinoo and coaches Heart and ClearLove for the entire Spring due to concerns over the coronavirus outbreak. This morning EDG's official Twitter refuted it saying Heart and Jinoo are healthy and safe in the Shanghai office.
Just to unwind this a bit, EDG had two listed junglers, Jiejie and Xinyi. While Jinoo and Heart are healthy and at the office working, both junglers and ClearLove are not. Because of this EDG had to bring in an emergency jungler, JunJia. JunJia doesn't have Chinese residency as he's from Taiwan which lies under the PCS (and formerly LMS) residency restriction. Since both Jinoo and Scout are Korean residents and you can only have two imports on your starting roster, Jinoo is being benched for Xiaoxiang because he has Chinese residency. Now that that's done let's look at this match.
On Monday, upon hearing this news, I immediately fired a book max bet on Nitrogen on both the Suning ML and -1.5. Missing both junglers, both lead coaches, and your starting top laner is a massive problem especially if the majority of pracitce time had been spent with them. That said, Xiaoxiang looked outstanding in Demacia Cup and at least Heart will be available to coach. As frustrated as I was with Suning in game three in their match the other day I'm still going with them here but I'll be hedging by buying back some EDG now that the numbers are different.
Initial Wagers from Monday:
Moneyline: Suning +246 (3 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +543 (3 units)(Nitrogen)
In this scenario:
If Suning win 2-0 I'll be netting +23.67 units.
If Suning win 2-1 I'll be netting +4.38 units
Hedge Wagers:
Moneyline: EDG -185 (3.7 units)(5Dimes)
I'm going to buy back 2 of my initial 6 unit wager.
This will result in the following:
If Suning win 2-1 Net +0.68 units
If Suning win 2-0 Net +19.97 units
If EDG win by any amount Net -4.0 units
I still think Suning are going to take this down which is why I'm not hedging further in favor of EDG. I'll take the loss if EDG can manage to pull this out with a brand new import jungler and a rookie top that has only played in Demacia Cup.
LGD +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
eStar Gaming -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
This is a weird one. On one hand, LGD look so terrible that I'm tempted by the plus money on the eStar -1.5, but I also don't trust that eStar is the real deal yet even though they've looked decent so far. Something about not being able to close out a game with ocean soul, two barons, and two elder buffs just can't be forgotten easily.
I think eStar is probably the side here but I don't trust them. This is going to be a pass.
No wager
---
LNG eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
BiliBili Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Asura, Duan
BiliBili: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
The last time we saw BiliBili was before the hiatus when they played an absolute slugfest of a match against RNG that they ended up taking down 2-1 after losing game one. I commented that both teams looked very disciplined relative to this region. RNG have looked that part so far, I'd expect the same from BiliBili who have looked that way over the last year or so.
LNG actually impressed me in their match against OMG in the first day back. Both teams were playing at a blistering pace and pushing their advantages appropriately. OMG look like a legitimate contender after challenging an RNG team that looks outstanding and LNG appear very similar.
This is a fascinating matchup. Meteor vs Xx in a battle of two of the stronger junglers in the league, Maple and FoFo, two former LMS stars. The storylines are plentiful. To me, this is two teams that are playing different styles very well and both can work. Personally I prefer the way BiliBili tends to play, limiting mistakes, controlling the map, and utilizing leverage with a lot of discipline but LNG look to be favoring an uptempo style that's perfect for disrupting that.
I like BiliBili to win this match but these odds should be much much closer than this and because of that we're going to stick with the value and take the underdog. II think this is a 60-40 matchup which implies roughly a -150 or so range meaning we're getting a ton of value on both the moneyline and the +1.5.
Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ -130 (1.3 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +530 (0.1 units)(5Dimes)
---
EDward Gaming -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
Suning Gaming +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
Lineups:
EDG: Xiaoxiang, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Suning: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
For those of you following the spreadsheet and my Twitter you saw that there was a lot of news about this game. On Monday morning Ran (@ran_lpl) tweeted out that EDG would be playing without Jiejie, Xinyi, Jinoo and coaches Heart and ClearLove for the entire Spring due to concerns over the coronavirus outbreak. This morning EDG's official Twitter refuted it saying Heart and Jinoo are healthy and safe in the Shanghai office.
Just to unwind this a bit, EDG had two listed junglers, Jiejie and Xinyi. While Jinoo and Heart are healthy and at the office working, both junglers and ClearLove are not. Because of this EDG had to bring in an emergency jungler, JunJia. JunJia doesn't have Chinese residency as he's from Taiwan which lies under the PCS (and formerly LMS) residency restriction. Since both Jinoo and Scout are Korean residents and you can only have two imports on your starting roster, Jinoo is being benched for Xiaoxiang because he has Chinese residency. Now that that's done let's look at this match.
On Monday, upon hearing this news, I immediately fired a book max bet on Nitrogen on both the Suning ML and -1.5. Missing both junglers, both lead coaches, and your starting top laner is a massive problem especially if the majority of pracitce time had been spent with them. That said, Xiaoxiang looked outstanding in Demacia Cup and at least Heart will be available to coach. As frustrated as I was with Suning in game three in their match the other day I'm still going with them here but I'll be hedging by buying back some EDG now that the numbers are different.
Initial Wagers from Monday:
Moneyline: Suning +246 (3 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +543 (3 units)(Nitrogen)
In this scenario:
If Suning win 2-0 I'll be netting +23.67 units.
If Suning win 2-1 I'll be netting +4.38 units
Hedge Wagers:
Moneyline: EDG -185 (3.7 units)(5Dimes)
I'm going to buy back 2 of my initial 6 unit wager.
This will result in the following:
If Suning win 2-1 Net +0.68 units
If Suning win 2-0 Net +19.97 units
If EDG win by any amount Net -4.0 units
I still think Suning are going to take this down which is why I'm not hedging further in favor of EDG. I'll take the loss if EDG can manage to pull this out with a brand new import jungler and a rookie top that has only played in Demacia Cup.
--------------------
Parlays:
none for now
No comments:
Post a Comment