March 30th Recap:
LPL: 13 - 14 (-0.236 units)
TOTAL: 13 - 14 (-0.236 units)
TOTAL: 13 - 14 (-0.236 units)
LNG/Vici (Net: +0.658)
Vici actually played very well in this series but LNG were able to hang in two of the games. Similar teams in terms of overall level but very different teams in how they approach the game.
FunPlus/Victory Five (Net: -0.014)
FunPlus went from looking like justified -10,000 favorites in game one with a 10k gold lead at 15 minutes (that's got to be close to a modern record right?) to basically inting in game two and then still winning. Victory Five showed some fight but they once again had a lead and they still got bullied off of objectives because they have absolutely zero confidence.
Suning/JDG (Net: -0.88)
Leave it to me to take the Suning over when they'd almost double their single digit kill total games in a single series including an impressive, but annoying as a bettor, showing on the lethality Varus by Huanfeng where he had all 6 kills on his team for most of the game as they were sieging the nexus. JDG looked somewhat back to form but I do think Suning actually underachieved in this series, particularly in game one.
LCS Tiebreakers:
I didn't have any action on these but it was a bummer seeing Dignitas play so well all day and just screw up a setup or two and lose their run. Golden Guardians might be the second worst team in the league and they're in playoffs. NA is whack!
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They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
LPL Trends:
Favorites: 52 - 25
Favorite Spread: 32 - 45
Underdogs: 25 - 52
Underdog Spread: 45 - 32
Underdog 2-0's: 13 out of 77
Week 5 - Day 2
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
LGD: Fenfen, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
The LGD roster merry-go-round begins.... For those that are new, LGD played about 147 different players over the last two years. Ok that's an exaggeration but the point is, as soon as they started doing this, they were never able to establish any kind of consistency whatsoever and that's why they've been at the bottom of the table for years.
That said, Fenfen is a pretty good player. He's not a top half in the LPL by any stretch but he's definitely deserving of being in the league. He's been a mid laner his entire career and I'd assume he's been in the training chamber learning top lane since most mid and top laners have been transitioning to play some of both to be able to swap when drafts call for it. That's a relatively new thing. You used to see that once in awhile, now it's almost every series. The champion pools have intersected enough in the past 18 months that it actually makes a lot of sense most times. I digress...
I can't stress how impressive it is that EDG have remained competitive even with all the roster moves. It's a testament to good coaching and the core of Scout and Meiko quietly being two of the best at their positions in the world. Hope has had a pretty easy time thanks to them but it has to be noted that he has also improved leaps and bounds from the disappointing performances last year when he got to play. Hope was the biggest question mark we had for this team and similar to the DragonX rookies, he's answered that question. This team plays the game so intelligently that I think they're just going to win a lot of games on that alone. I'ts impressive.
I still have a difficult time seeing this team compete with the best teams but I'm coming around the the possibility that maybe they'll just improve with time and could, perhaps, be in that conversation.
This matchup is a strange one. EDG actually have really bad economic stats for a team that's played as well as they have but they've also faced a more difficult schedule than LGD and have come out with more wins. LGD have stolen games from Invictus, 2-0'd TOP, and 1-2'd LNG back before the hiatus. The carries on this team are good enough to take a game if it's given to them, they just have a difficult time creating on their own. LGD are a bottom three or four team but they're clearly better than Dominus and Victory Five by a decent margin.
I think EDG is the side here but there's a chance this could be a "let down" spot. After facing RNG, Vici, and JDG in a row, it's not unreasonable to expect EDG to have put more effort into preparing for those matches. The argument against that is that, given the condensed schedule, they're treating it all the same AS THEY SHOULD.
There's a lot of noise in the numbers for this series but I like EDG to take it down especially with Fenfen in at a new position even if he busts out a weird pick. This line opened at EDG -287 / -1.5 @ +118. At this point I don't see any value in the spread or the moneyline with EDG. I do like EDG + odds spreads.
EDG AMOV = 13.0 for season, 10.6 in their last 8.
EDG have won by 8 or more in all but one of their 11 wins this season and by double digits in 7 out of 11 including 3 of their last 4.
LGD AMOD = 9.71 on the season, 11.375 in their last 8
LGD have lost by double digits in their last 9 losses.
EDG are 2-2 as favorites and 1-3 ATS as favorites.
LGD are 1-6 as underdogs and 3-4 ATS as underdogs.
LGD have lost 7 of their last 8 under 33 minutes. 6 of these were in under 30:30, 5 under 30:00
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -102 (0.51 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -127 (0.3175 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -9.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -130 (0.325 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -9.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
---
Invictus -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
vs
OMG +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
OMG went from facing Victory Five and Dominus back to back to facing FunPlus, TOP, and now Invictus back to back to back. They managed to take a game off of FunPlus but fell 2-0 to TOP after a close game one. Invictus had their "get right" spot against Suning after being embarassed by eStar in the match prior.
This is going to be an underdog special for a few reasons. First, OMG are actually a good team and their solo lanes should be able to not get blown out of the water like a lot of teams against Invictus. Second, Invictus are starting Leyan who I find much less consistent than Ning even though they've lost a similar amount of games so far this season. Third, Invictus are a highly variant team as it is and tend to drop games just based on how they play the game (high risk/high reward).
This number also went up from IG -369 to -478 (or equivalent elsewhere) so we're getting more value on OMG and I already liked this spot.
Invictus also have the smallest AMOV in the LPL this season which is actually amazing considering how out of hand a lot of their games seem. They only have an AMOD of 5.5 and have only won by double digits 5 times this season. They've won two games while behind in kills and have won their last 4 by 3, 10, 1, and 6. OMG aren't a great team at covering as losers but I'l tack on the plus odds kill spreads in this spot specifically.
Invictus are 6-1 as favorites and 5-2 ATS as favorites. OMG are 2-4 as underdogs and 4-2 ATS as underdogs.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -110 (1.1 units)
Moneyline: OMG +304 (0.25 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +603 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: OMG +5.5 kills @ +102 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +4.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +3.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +2.5 kills @ +147 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: OMG +5.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +4.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +3.5 kills @ +136 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +2.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)
------------------------
Favorites: 52 - 25
Favorite Spread: 32 - 45
Underdogs: 25 - 52
Underdog Spread: 45 - 32
Underdog 2-0's: 13 out of 77
Week 5 - Day 2
EDward Gaming -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
vs
LGD Gaming +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
vs
LGD Gaming +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
LGD: Fenfen, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
The LGD roster merry-go-round begins.... For those that are new, LGD played about 147 different players over the last two years. Ok that's an exaggeration but the point is, as soon as they started doing this, they were never able to establish any kind of consistency whatsoever and that's why they've been at the bottom of the table for years.
That said, Fenfen is a pretty good player. He's not a top half in the LPL by any stretch but he's definitely deserving of being in the league. He's been a mid laner his entire career and I'd assume he's been in the training chamber learning top lane since most mid and top laners have been transitioning to play some of both to be able to swap when drafts call for it. That's a relatively new thing. You used to see that once in awhile, now it's almost every series. The champion pools have intersected enough in the past 18 months that it actually makes a lot of sense most times. I digress...
I can't stress how impressive it is that EDG have remained competitive even with all the roster moves. It's a testament to good coaching and the core of Scout and Meiko quietly being two of the best at their positions in the world. Hope has had a pretty easy time thanks to them but it has to be noted that he has also improved leaps and bounds from the disappointing performances last year when he got to play. Hope was the biggest question mark we had for this team and similar to the DragonX rookies, he's answered that question. This team plays the game so intelligently that I think they're just going to win a lot of games on that alone. I'ts impressive.
I still have a difficult time seeing this team compete with the best teams but I'm coming around the the possibility that maybe they'll just improve with time and could, perhaps, be in that conversation.
This matchup is a strange one. EDG actually have really bad economic stats for a team that's played as well as they have but they've also faced a more difficult schedule than LGD and have come out with more wins. LGD have stolen games from Invictus, 2-0'd TOP, and 1-2'd LNG back before the hiatus. The carries on this team are good enough to take a game if it's given to them, they just have a difficult time creating on their own. LGD are a bottom three or four team but they're clearly better than Dominus and Victory Five by a decent margin.
I think EDG is the side here but there's a chance this could be a "let down" spot. After facing RNG, Vici, and JDG in a row, it's not unreasonable to expect EDG to have put more effort into preparing for those matches. The argument against that is that, given the condensed schedule, they're treating it all the same AS THEY SHOULD.
There's a lot of noise in the numbers for this series but I like EDG to take it down especially with Fenfen in at a new position even if he busts out a weird pick. This line opened at EDG -287 / -1.5 @ +118. At this point I don't see any value in the spread or the moneyline with EDG. I do like EDG + odds spreads.
EDG AMOV = 13.0 for season, 10.6 in their last 8.
EDG have won by 8 or more in all but one of their 11 wins this season and by double digits in 7 out of 11 including 3 of their last 4.
LGD AMOD = 9.71 on the season, 11.375 in their last 8
LGD have lost by double digits in their last 9 losses.
EDG are 2-2 as favorites and 1-3 ATS as favorites.
LGD are 1-6 as underdogs and 3-4 ATS as underdogs.
LGD have lost 7 of their last 8 under 33 minutes. 6 of these were in under 30:30, 5 under 30:00
Map 1:
Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -127 (0.3175 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -9.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -102 (0.51 units)Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -130 (0.325 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -9.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
---
Invictus -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
vs
OMG +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
OMG went from facing Victory Five and Dominus back to back to facing FunPlus, TOP, and now Invictus back to back to back. They managed to take a game off of FunPlus but fell 2-0 to TOP after a close game one. Invictus had their "get right" spot against Suning after being embarassed by eStar in the match prior.
This is going to be an underdog special for a few reasons. First, OMG are actually a good team and their solo lanes should be able to not get blown out of the water like a lot of teams against Invictus. Second, Invictus are starting Leyan who I find much less consistent than Ning even though they've lost a similar amount of games so far this season. Third, Invictus are a highly variant team as it is and tend to drop games just based on how they play the game (high risk/high reward).
This number also went up from IG -369 to -478 (or equivalent elsewhere) so we're getting more value on OMG and I already liked this spot.
Invictus also have the smallest AMOV in the LPL this season which is actually amazing considering how out of hand a lot of their games seem. They only have an AMOD of 5.5 and have only won by double digits 5 times this season. They've won two games while behind in kills and have won their last 4 by 3, 10, 1, and 6. OMG aren't a great team at covering as losers but I'l tack on the plus odds kill spreads in this spot specifically.
Invictus are 6-1 as favorites and 5-2 ATS as favorites. OMG are 2-4 as underdogs and 4-2 ATS as underdogs.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -110 (1.1 units)
Moneyline: OMG +304 (0.25 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +603 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: OMG +5.5 kills @ +102 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +4.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +3.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +2.5 kills @ +147 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +5.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +4.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +3.5 kills @ +136 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +2.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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