March 15th Recap:
LPL: 1 - 1 (-0.86 units)
TOTAL: 1 - 1 (-0.86 units)
It's nice to hear the official English broadcasters back in their element. While I also enjoy the work OpalCasts and others do, it was just good to hear these casters again for the first time in awhile. BACK TO WORK!
I'm going to talk about TOP vs LGD first because it was the most shocking result of the day. I can commiserate with the botched dive by TOP in the top lane in game one. Perhaps a little bit of tilt set in but it was good to see TOP settle down and bring it back in the middle of the game. The issue was that they were just too far down at that point. This game got away from them. It happens. Game two it looked like TOP had settled into control against the double beefy tanks of Ornn and Maokai with fed Azir but then a really smart baron call ended up going horribly wrong as they were just barely short of the necessary damage to kill it before Karsa got killed and Peanut stole it. It looks bad but damage estimation is a bit of an art form if you've ever done it yourself in game, it's a judgement call. What ends up happening on these a lot of the time is that if the estimation is even a little bit wrong it can be disastrous and make you look REALLY REALLY stupid. Again, don't be results oriented, something that looks REALLY stupid is often not as stupid as it looked. I think that was the case here.
That said, something is up with TOP. They were the LPL team we could trust most to have clean execution and smart decision making last year and that hasn't been the case so far. I'm going to speculate a lot here but it looks like poor communication on the top side. 369 and Knight had outstanding chemistry with Xx when he was here. Sometimes when you replace a piece like that, the remaining players continue doing the same thing or just forget that you have to clearly communicate, especially early on in a tenure together. It's not automatic like they were used to. Again, it's speculation but that's what it looks like is happening. TOP still have the right idea, I still like their drafts a lot, and they're setting up the right plays, the execution just hasn't been very crisp. I actually trust that it will improve especially with a wakeup call loss like this. You could argue that it should be there already with the time off as well.
Team WE looked way too hyped up for this match. They had big time tunnel vision while RNG were able to see and take advantage of the big picture. WE had what they thought was a catch on Ming's Nautilus early and ended up expending a ton of resources chasing it down. Eventually they got the kill but it cost them four because they chased way too far and RNG just cleaned it up. In a way, that scenario was a microcosm for what would eventually be both games in this series. I'll give credit to WE for being decisive and commiting to their decisions but against good macro teams that's just not going to work most of the time. Additionally, Betty and Ming look like a match made in heaven. They're absolutely dominating lanes even in matchups they shouldn't be. RNG look like the best team in the LPL right now.
Rogue Warriors were really proactive in this series which I like to see from teams that are heavy underdogs. Make some plays, take the fight to them, don't roll over an die! Game one was really sloppy and disrespectful by Invictus, including some Rumble proxy farming by TheShy, unnecessary tower dives in the mid lane, and more. This looked almost like old Invictus honestly. It was like they were playing solo queue and assuming they'd outplay every single situation. It wasn't like G2 who fight to get macro advantages, this was undisciplined, nonsense fighting. There were 33 kills in 25 minutes in this game one. Invictus looked like they were going to punt a game away but ended up winning it. Holder, who got dominated by TheShy in game one, swapped out for Holder. Rogue Warriors jumped out to yet another huge advantage in game two but frankly it didn't look like they knew what to do with their lead at times. Poor setups, letting Invictus wedge them over neutral objectives, and poor target selection were a few of things I noticed. Game three was yet another solo queue style bloodbath but this one was closer. Rogue Warriors made the last mistake and lost the game on it.
I have to be honest, watching this game and Invictus' last series makes me think that we might be looking at the ressurection of 2018 Invictus again. A team that knows they're better than everyone and doesn't give a damn about the regular season other than limit testing themselves. I'll give credit to Rogue Warriors for taking the fight to Invictus in this series but there was absolutely no preparation or, frankly, respect paid by Invictus. I want to be optimstic for Rogue Warriors but it's just so difficult to judge these series that Invictus seem to take off. This match felt to me like Invictus could have easily smashed it 2-0 in about 45 minutes if they just wanted to but they decided to have some fun and play with their food. It's hard to explain but if you watched 2018 Invictus this looked remarkably similar to that. If that's the team we're going to get moving forward it might be time to jump back on the underdog spread train again.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 3 - Day 1
eStar Gaming -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
vs
Victory Five +395 (+1.5 @ +118)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
V5: Aliez, As6, Mole, y4, clx
I'm still not buying eStar. They're a one trick pony that will eventually get figured out. Victory Five finally looked in the last match like they realize how bad they are and have started drafting accordingly, to win lane or to cheese. I mentioned that I thought they wouldn't be an easy sweep with that mentality.
This is a weird one. My gut says this is an eStar 2-0 because their top trio should absolutely dumpster this map but I also think that it doesn't take that much to figure out this weird "always dive bot" gameplan they've marched out every single game. The thing is, I have no respect for Victory Five and they've given me no reason to have any. I don't trust this coaching staff to even set them up to battle against this. This is probably an eStar 2-0 but I'm not paying -167 for it.
No wager
---
OMG +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
vs
BiliBili Gaming -154 (-1.5 @ +197)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
BBG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
I think BiliBili and TOP are going through a bit of a similar thing right now. They're both teams that look just a little bit off in one way or another and when you play a more disciplined and by-the-book style, it can often make you look stupid when you don't execute even if you've done all your homework. If these were companies I'd be buying stock in both because it feels like they should be able to work through these few early season hiccups. The foundation is there they just need to execute better.
OMG have had a really tough schedule facing two of the best teams in the LPL in JDG and RNG so far as well as an improved and aggressive LNG. When they finally faced an easier opponent the other day against Rogue Warriors, they completely destroyed them in just under 50 minutes. I had OMG in my top five in the LPL and I still think that's the case. This team is the real deal.
This match is interesting because we have two common opponents within the last three matches in LNG and RNG. OMG lost to RNG 1-2 and beat LNG 2-1. BiliBili lost to LNG 1-2 but beat RNG 2-1. It's a bit weird because the break happened between when BiliBili faced RNG and their most recent matches so we don't want to put too much stock into it but nonetheless it's a decent measuring stick.
I'm assuming BiliBili can perform better than they've been performing. It's not that they've been bad but I'd expect better. That said, I still had OMG ahead of them in my pre-season tiers and they've done nothing but meet and somewhat exceed those expectations so far. OMG should probably be slightly favored here. This line is incorrect based on what we've seen so far and would be incorrect based on pre-season evaluations as well. Give me the underdogs.
Moneyline: OMG +108 (1.75 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +275 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
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JD Gaming -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
vs
Vici Gaming +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
Lineups:
JDG: 705, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
Vici: Cube, Chieftain, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro
Vici's bottom lane was horrendous in their previous series to WE and weren't exactly impressive against Invictus in that clown fiesta of a match either. Seeing Maestro back at support actually brings me a little bit of confidence that we'll at least see some smarter decision making by Vici. We've yet to see this exact lineup for them. The last we saw Maestro play was before the hiatus with Forge in the middle lane.
JDG looked pretty sloppy against Victory Five even if the scoreline didn't indicate it. While I don't necessarily want to hold it against them too much I wrote that "it should be noted."
This is a really tough looking handicap because I think both of these teams are better than they've showed but I also think that if you take a step back and really look big picture at this series, that the value is actually on JDG.
Vici are likely going to be the gatekeepers. They're going to smash the bottom half teams but struggle against the top of the table because of the talent disparity. I had JDG pegged as an elite team, S+ in my pre-season tier list. They've largely delivered on that. I had high hopes for OMG. JDG smashed them. An improved, proactive WE squad? JDG dispatched them with ease. The Victory Five win was a bit sloppy but I also felt a bit like they were playing with their food. And the 1-2 loss to FunPlus? Well it's FunPlus, they're the only team I rated better than JDG going into this season. JDG are good. Really good. And their most recent matches have been with 705 at top lane, not Zoom. He's also looked good.
Vici are going to have a tough time here. I like the move back to Maestro and think that this team will eventually figure it out, but they aren't there yet. At first glance this looked like a Vici +1.5 maps slam dunk but the more I think about it, the more I like the JDG sweep. They've handled strong competition rather easily and I don't see that changing here.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -150 (1.50 units)(5Dimes)
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none yet
eStar Gaming -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
vs
Victory Five +395 (+1.5 @ +118)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
V5: Aliez, As6, Mole, y4, clx
I'm still not buying eStar. They're a one trick pony that will eventually get figured out. Victory Five finally looked in the last match like they realize how bad they are and have started drafting accordingly, to win lane or to cheese. I mentioned that I thought they wouldn't be an easy sweep with that mentality.
This is a weird one. My gut says this is an eStar 2-0 because their top trio should absolutely dumpster this map but I also think that it doesn't take that much to figure out this weird "always dive bot" gameplan they've marched out every single game. The thing is, I have no respect for Victory Five and they've given me no reason to have any. I don't trust this coaching staff to even set them up to battle against this. This is probably an eStar 2-0 but I'm not paying -167 for it.
No wager
---
OMG +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
vs
BiliBili Gaming -154 (-1.5 @ +197)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
BBG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
I think BiliBili and TOP are going through a bit of a similar thing right now. They're both teams that look just a little bit off in one way or another and when you play a more disciplined and by-the-book style, it can often make you look stupid when you don't execute even if you've done all your homework. If these were companies I'd be buying stock in both because it feels like they should be able to work through these few early season hiccups. The foundation is there they just need to execute better.
OMG have had a really tough schedule facing two of the best teams in the LPL in JDG and RNG so far as well as an improved and aggressive LNG. When they finally faced an easier opponent the other day against Rogue Warriors, they completely destroyed them in just under 50 minutes. I had OMG in my top five in the LPL and I still think that's the case. This team is the real deal.
This match is interesting because we have two common opponents within the last three matches in LNG and RNG. OMG lost to RNG 1-2 and beat LNG 2-1. BiliBili lost to LNG 1-2 but beat RNG 2-1. It's a bit weird because the break happened between when BiliBili faced RNG and their most recent matches so we don't want to put too much stock into it but nonetheless it's a decent measuring stick.
I'm assuming BiliBili can perform better than they've been performing. It's not that they've been bad but I'd expect better. That said, I still had OMG ahead of them in my pre-season tiers and they've done nothing but meet and somewhat exceed those expectations so far. OMG should probably be slightly favored here. This line is incorrect based on what we've seen so far and would be incorrect based on pre-season evaluations as well. Give me the underdogs.
Moneyline: OMG +108 (1.75 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +275 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
---
JD Gaming -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
vs
Vici Gaming +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
Lineups:
JDG: 705, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
Vici: Cube, Chieftain, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro
Vici's bottom lane was horrendous in their previous series to WE and weren't exactly impressive against Invictus in that clown fiesta of a match either. Seeing Maestro back at support actually brings me a little bit of confidence that we'll at least see some smarter decision making by Vici. We've yet to see this exact lineup for them. The last we saw Maestro play was before the hiatus with Forge in the middle lane.
JDG looked pretty sloppy against Victory Five even if the scoreline didn't indicate it. While I don't necessarily want to hold it against them too much I wrote that "it should be noted."
This is a really tough looking handicap because I think both of these teams are better than they've showed but I also think that if you take a step back and really look big picture at this series, that the value is actually on JDG.
Vici are likely going to be the gatekeepers. They're going to smash the bottom half teams but struggle against the top of the table because of the talent disparity. I had JDG pegged as an elite team, S+ in my pre-season tier list. They've largely delivered on that. I had high hopes for OMG. JDG smashed them. An improved, proactive WE squad? JDG dispatched them with ease. The Victory Five win was a bit sloppy but I also felt a bit like they were playing with their food. And the 1-2 loss to FunPlus? Well it's FunPlus, they're the only team I rated better than JDG going into this season. JDG are good. Really good. And their most recent matches have been with 705 at top lane, not Zoom. He's also looked good.
Vici are going to have a tough time here. I like the move back to Maestro and think that this team will eventually figure it out, but they aren't there yet. At first glance this looked like a Vici +1.5 maps slam dunk but the more I think about it, the more I like the JDG sweep. They've handled strong competition rather easily and I don't see that changing here.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -150 (1.50 units)(5Dimes)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
none for now
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