Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Betting: March 1st (LCK / LMS)

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines. 

Afreeca Freecs -200 (66.6%) @ SK Telecom

KT Rolster -400 (80%) @ Kongdoo Monster


LCK February 28th Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-102, +1.5 @ -323, M1 -110, M2 -111, M3 -111)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
SK Telecom  (-123, -1.5 @ +236, M1 -115, M2 -116, M3 -116)

Kingzone DragonX (-909, -1.5 @ -204, M1 -455, M2 -400, M3 -400)

@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+538, +1.5 @ +153, M1 +306, M2 +263, M3 +263)


Moneyline SK Telecom -123 (2 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

I took some time to rewatch the Afreea vs KSV series over again this time without the immediate post match emotion and to be perfectly honest, both teams played really sloppy and made a lot of errors in these games. Mechanical mistakes, horrific team fight positioning, a situation where Crown just had no idea where his team was when they were already on their way out showed me that KSV absolutely had communication errors. Afreeca weren't too much better. A couple Taliyah walls nearly botched fights for them and I'm finding it hard to be impressed with these teamfight victories when KSV seemed to be playing solo queue in this match with such horrible movement and team fight coordination in game one but by game two they had it all figured out and looked much cleaner.

Similar things could be said about SK Telecom in their most recent effort against ROX Tigers. Sloppy fights, collapse and rotational plays that took way too long and resulted in bloody skirmishes instead of clean kills, and this weird obsession with playing aggressively with scaling champions. SK Telecom are either the most impressive team in this league by playing super aggressive early in games with Azir and Ezreal, or Bang and Faker are just that good. I'm guessing the latter but it gives me some cause for concern.In the current patch, and likely for long time moving forward, the team that gets ahead is going to stay ahead and this is a bit of a long shot call but I think that red side is going to become more prevalent. Counterpicks have been working out quite well since the break and a lot of teams have been innovating with new picks to get an early edge. 

I had this line at Afreeca -200 because they've been the stronger team over the course of the season and have wins against stronger teams but in recent weeks they've shown some vulnerabilities that I feel the SKT carries can exploit. I'm going with SK Telecom and here's why:

  • SKT: 1908 GPM, 2032 DPM, +83 GD/M
  • Afreeca:  1934 GPM, 1753 DPM, +101 GD/M
  • Afreeca won the last meeting 2-0 but they were two close, hard fought games and it was the last series that Blank played in. Since Blossom has replaced him in the lineup (whether Thal or Untara has played in top) their record has been 4-0 (8-2). If SKT were competitive in those games with a weaker jungler then I'd assume they can perform even better this time around.
  • Afreeca started Aiming yesterday against KSV and still won but as we discussed I personally think that at least in game one it was more a matter of KSV playing horribly than Afreeca necessarily playing really well. (This is a plus for Afreeca btw)
  • Both teams have played mostly middle to bottom of the table teams since the break but Jin Air faced Kingzone and took a game. They also got absolutely stomped by the Jin Air Green wings who looked incredible and then... horrible against BBQ.
  • Faker and Bang are coming back into form at the same time and that's terrifying. Faker has been absorbing jungle pressure and turning it into kills even on champions that are weak skrimishers like Azir. Bang has had some excellent Kalista and Ezreal performances.
  • Bang and Faker are both in the top 5 in damage dealt despite negative gold differentials making them two of the top damage per gold per minute players in the world.
  • Faker has historically "had Kuro's number." A handful of Kuro's worst individual performances in his career have been in important matches against Faker. 2015 World Finals, Spring 2016 Finals, 2016 Worlds Semi-finals, the list goes on. For whatever reason (perhaps that he's the best player of all time), Faker is Kuro's kryptonite. It's been over many years, through many metagames and many lineups.
  • With the Faker kryptonite idea combined with a metagame coming into his favor and his play steadily improving as the season goes on this just smells like a Faker pop-off series on picks that have been appearing here and there this past week like Ekko or Leblanc.
I'm keeping this light because this series could go either way but I'm sticking with my gut here despite the vast line disparity. SKT have been a team on the rise while Afreeca have shown some holes in the armor. I'm going to take the unders but no other props here. Should be a great series!


Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -164 (2 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 KT Rolster First Blood @ -145 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Map 2 KT Rolster First Blood @ -145 (0.5 unit)

I'm trying desparately not to be too shell-shocked by this bizarre season and the absolute beating we've taken the past two days (-25 units). It's tough. Can KT Rolster be the voice of reason in all of this? 

  • KT Rolster won the last meeting in two 35 minute stompings.
  • KT Rolster just got stomped by ROX Tigers. This was partially due to individual misplays (Pawn sucked) but mostly a fundamental misread on the draft. I have no idea why KT thought ROX would play a long game, perhaps it was scrims but we'll never know. They came out with this dedicated 2-core as if it was still Patch 8.1 and we were playing for 45 minutes and ROX just ran them over with Zoe and Taliyah as well as a Kennen counterpick to Gnar. 
  • I think that series should be a wake up call to KT Rolster that you can't play the game that way right now (also that ROX isn't to be messed around with). When this team is firing on all cylinders they're incredible, perhaps the best in the world.
  • KT can move to within a Kingzone match loss of first place with a win here. A 2-0 would give them even game wins.
  • This season has made absolutely no sense and no team seems to be able to get into a rhythm besides SKT currently, Afreeca and Kingzone during their runs. Hopefully that's motivation for these superior teams to stop playing with their food. 
  • Kongdoo have one a single game in their past 6 matches. Perhaps that's reason to believe they're "due for a win" but I try to stay away from that fundamentally flawed philosophy. 
Now Kongdoo do have side choice so I could imagine a world where they do something wild to change things up in game one but I like KT to take care of business, unlike their other top half breatheren this week.


LOL Masters Series (Taiwan) February 28th Schedule:

Machi e-Sports (-244, -1.5 @ +134, M1 -192, M2 -204, M3 -175)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team Afro (+161, +1.5 @ -185, M1 +132, M2 +139, M3 +121)

Flash Wolves (-345, -1.5 @ -109, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
J Team (+216, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +165, M2 +162, M3 +149)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -109 (2 units)

Prop: FW @ JT Map 1 OVER 34:00 @ -118 (0.5 unit)

Prop: FW @ JT Map 2 OVER 34:00 @ -119 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Machi @ Afro Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -123 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Machi @ Afro Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -122 (0.5 unit)

J Team might be in 3rd place and their record might be excellent but they lost back to back games against now 2nd place G-Rex after a thorough stomping in game one. Flash Wolves are a cut above the rest of this league with more than three times the gold differential per minute of the second place team (J Team). I'm fairly confident in a 2-0 here from Flash Wolves if J Team struggled with G-Rex. I'm going to put half a unit on the overs in the Flash Wolves/J Team series and the unders in the Machi/Afro series because I think 34.5 is about where the number should be with games either going 35+ or under 34 in the past two weeks in the LMS.


Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Betting: February 28th (LCK / LPL)

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines. 

Jin Air Green Wings -200 (66.6%) @ BBQ Olivers

Kingzone DragonX -567 (85%) @ MVP

BBQ Olivers took a series off of Kingzone following the break and then immediately got trounced by MVP. This isn't a good team and I think 


LCK February 28th Schedule:

Jin Air (-222, -1.5 @ +146, M1 -175, M2 -175, M3 -152)

@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
BBQ Olivers (+171, +1.5 @ -192, M1 +133, M2 +134, M3 +117)

Kingzone DragonX (-909, -1.5 @ -204, M1 -455, M2 -400, M3 -400)

@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+538, +1.5 @ +153, M1 +306, M2 +263, M3 +263)


Moneyline: Jin Air Green Wings -222 (4 units) 

Handicapped: Jin Air Green Wings -1.5 maps @ +146 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 - Jin Air First Blood @ -116 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 - Jin Air First Blood @ -116 (0.5 units)

Over/Under: Map 1 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Over/Under: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ +107 (1 unit) 

So BBQ beat Kingzone and then immediately lost to MVP later in the week. That should tell you everything you need to know about this team. They're inconsistent. Competitive and aggressive, but wildly inconsistent. They play a very risk inclined style of League of Legends and sometimes it pays off and others it doesn't. Jin Air, on the other hand have been steady and are, for the most part, beating everyone they should be beating and losing to everyone they should be losing to like any middle of the table team tends to do. To me this boils down to a handful of points:

  • Jin Air are significantly more consistent.
  • BBQ's wins, while impressive, have had a lot of variance baked in (Rascal got the start in games 2 and 3 of the Kingzone series and a few of these early fights easily could have gone the other way). 
  • Jin Air are light years better in almost every metric besides first blood %.
  • Jin Air seem to have settled on their roster and have been performing excellently in this brutal part of the schedule that includes the Top 3 teams in a row in which they got a decisive 2-0 over Afreeca, a competitive 1-2 loss to KT Rolster, and an 0-2 against Kingzone through two long, very close slugfest games.
  • Jin Air seem to have a really strong grasp on Patch 8.3 and have been giving stronger teams than themselves a lot of trouble with their excellent tempo play from Grace and UmTi on picks like Skarner, Taliyah, and Camille.
Coming off of the bye week it's not unreasonable to suspect BBQ had very specific plans cooked up for Kingzone and while Jin Air likely had the same for Afreeca, I buy Jin Air's wins more, if that makes any sense. These are similar teams in that their current forms are very aggressive and look to play the tempo game, I just feel the Jin Air have stronger players, are more consistent, have better quality wins against, better quality wins against good opponents, and have the three best players in this specific match in Teddy, Grace, and SoHwan. Jin Air and BBQ both have high first blood rates due to early aggression at 57% and 54% respectively.  I expect fast games in one direction or the other from these two heavily tempo-reliant squads. They'll be fast, decisive wins in one direction or the other and I'm betting on Jin Air.

Result: LOSS 0-8. Lost every single bet. This season is something else. I'm going to rewatch this tonight but essentially this boiled down to Jin Air getting stomped and then not showing up in game two. I can't tell if teams are just totally disrespecting each other, if the records are severely inaccurate, if teams are just up for certain matchups, or if the league is just more competitive overall (which I didn't think was possible in the LCK). There is no consistency, rhyme, or reason to almost anything that's going on in the LCK this season and as someone that's watched literally every single game of this league since it's inception back in 2012 I can honestly say that I've never seen anything like it.

Anyway now that the emotions ran out let me talk about this series. First of all I think the Leona pick really threw Jin Air off in game one but they recovered nicely and were in control at one point up 5 kills to 3 and proceeded to have two of the worst team fights I've seen all season. Teddy and Grace put themselves in a places where their front line couldn't protect them multiple times and they got picked off. In game two Jin Air tried the Illaoi counterpick to Ornn but did absolutely nothing to protect the Illaoi from inevitable jungle pressure. Even still they had chances in this game and early on actually looked to be in control after a successful bot tower dive and two infernal drakes. 

In summary I think BBQ played a good series. They didn't do anything too whacky (Leona pops up from time to time) and played the macro game, particularly in game two the way they should by just camping the Illaoi. If Jin Air did anything to support the Illaoi, and SoHwan didn't overextend on one occassion I think this could have worked but after an 0-2 start they essentially quit on their strategy, tried to team fight with Illaoi, and lost because of it.  This patch is extremely unforgiving to teams that get behind early and I think it will only get more severe in Patch 8.4.


Handicapped: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 maps @ -204 (3 units)

Prop: Map 1 - Kingzone First Blood @ -175 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 - Kingzone First Blood @ -175 (0.5 units)

Over/Under: Map 1 UNDER 36:00 @ -125 (1 unit)

Over/Under: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -125 (1 unit) 

MVP don't have a single game win against a team I'd call a "quality" team. Their game wins were as follows: 

  • 2 against the slumping, confused SK Telecom that was making roster swaps
  • 4 against the inconsistent and wild BBQ Olivers
  • ... that's it.
It has been the year of the upset but with Kingzone just losing a competitive series against Afreeca and being upset by the BBQ Oliver in a really bizarre series coming out of the break, I don't think they'll be taking this game lightly and unlike KSV (we're divorced now by the way...), I think this team has too much pride to be embarassed a second, or third, or fourth time. It's only been two weeks since we watched this team rattle off 14 games in a row in completely dominant fashion. Surely the other teams were going to figure something out but now that Kingzone has had a couple series to see the rest of the leagues counterpunches they can begin to start striking back. They're going to want to secure a #1 seed in the most competitive region in the world and they can do that with a couple more wins but they have to put away bad teams like this first. I got burned for saying it but this is another series that I think Kingzone win even with Rascal or Cuzz in the picture but with first place on the line I'd be surprised to see either outside of starting them after a crushing game one victory. 

Result: 3 wins - 2 losses. Kingzone almost lost game one of this series which would have completely put me in the red on every bet today in the LCK but they showed up like themselves for game two. I'm really hoping all these upsets and good performances by bad teams start to motivate the stronger teams to quit messing around. It's not a pushover to "experiment" or try new things against these weaker teams anymore and with playoff seeding on the line I think you'll start to see less of it in the coming weeks.


LOL Pro League February 28th Schedule:

Vici Gaming (+400, +1.5 @ +144, M1 +275, M2 +276, M3 +276)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Royal Never Give-Up (-667, -1.5 @ -200, M1 -400, M2 -400, M3 -400)

Rogue Warriors (+151, +1.5 @ -208, M1 +120, M2 +123, M3 +123)

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5)
EDward Gaming (-196, -1.5 @ +158, M1 -167, M2 -161, M3 -161)


Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -200 (3 units)

Prop: Map 1 - RNG First Blood @ -175 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 - RNG First Blood @ -169 (0.5 units)

Over/Under: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -137 (1 unit)

Over/Under: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -133 (1 unit) 

Vici got just their second game win of the season yesterday against fellow bottom dwellers TopSports and their fresh new solo laners MaRin and Corn. RNG finally got Uzi back last match and took a 2-1 victory over long time rivals Team WE. With or without Uzi in the lineup RNG has pretty convincingly destroyed lower level teams. This roster is stacked with individual talent and in China that matters a lot more than in other regions. Karsa AND Mlxg, Zztai AND LetMe, Xiaohu, Uzi, Ming... like jeez. Anyway Vici is the worst team in the LPL and it's not close. Even Easyhoon and Swift can't save this team and in this specific matchup I just don't see it happening. I do think Vici is due for a win however I think it will be against one of these other middle of the pack teams without as much starpower.

Result: 2 wins - 3 losses for us, 2 - 1 win for RNG. Mlxg went absolutely bonkers in game one on Camille and that was that. Game two was one that RNG is going to want back. Both teams were trading kills, Vici camping top and RNG camping bottom both with success. After lane, RNG was in full control of pacing this game and methodically went around destroying towers until baron. Then they just hard lost the 5v5 at baron by ignoring Kogmaw and getting 4 man Camille ulted. Vici won the game off the ace. Just single real big mistake and that was all she wrote. I think Vici played well trading top pressure for bot pressure but ultimately this boiled down to one really good team fight in which Vici got the optimal setup and that was it. RNG is still good, Vici might be slightly better than they were but didn't exactly show me anything exciting from this series. RNG just threw a game. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Moneyline: EDward Gaming -196  (3 units)

I'm fairly confident EDG are the better team and take this series but I'm not entirely sure if it will be a clean 2-0 or a slugfest. Rogue Warriors have been impressive so far this season but similarly to the points I was talking about before the EDG vs Suning series, it's about time EDG starts turning it on for their playoff push. This roster is very strong and while Rogue Warriors have impressed with superstar ADC SmLz and mid laner DoinB, I think EDG have the more complete roster and Rogue Warriors have been a bit reliant on "protect the carry" style comps. I think EDG can play that style around iBoy or find some way around it with Scout's versatility. 

Result: LOSS BUT WE GOT SOME INFO! Game 1 was 7-0 for RW and Game 2 was 7-0 for RW... wow... I actually don't think I've ever seen a complete series shutout before and against a strong EDG team. Steak (RW coach and former LMS player, multi-time World Championship Top 8) really has these guys playing super disciplined, Korean-esque League of Legends and it's incredibly impressive. The takeaway from this isn't that EDG laid and egg. They had good team compositions but RW just had the answer at all points and closed nearly perfectly in both games. I think this Rogue Warriors team isn't just one of those "early season tryhards" we were discussing earlier this week in a long LPL season. The Rogue Warriors are the LPL's version of the NHL's Golden Knights. "Are they going to crash and burn yet? Nope, still going." That seems to be the reality we're living in so maybe this team is the real deal and a Top 2 or 3 team in China. Now we just need to be burned next week :)


Betting: Week In Reivew for February 19th - 26th (Week 6)

I'm a bit late with this piece this week and suffered a devastating loss this morning but you'll have to wait until next week as this will cover through Monday morning from this week since I didn't get a chance to get to this.

Big/Smart Winners:

Moneyline: Team Solo Mid +149 to defeat Echo Fox
Wager: 2 units
Payout: 4.98 units

This was mostly psychology and line value. When a team is backed into a corner they are capable of great things. We've seen this with SKT, ROX, and now TSM amongst other this season. They HAD to have this game. Echo Fox is still quite good and Huni is destroying teams even in losses but they're not perfect.

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 @ +197 to defeat LGD
Wager: 1 unit
Payout: 2.97 units

Keep and eye on the LPL because these grossly inaccurate spreads pop up fairly often and they're worth putting a unit or two on even without completely having viewed every single game for a team as long as you know what they've done recently.
Moneyline: Giants +154 to defeat Vitality
Wager: 1 unit
Payout: 1.54 units

Choo choo, the Vitality overhype train is here to deliver money!

Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -200 to defeat OpTic
Wager: 6 units
Payout: 9 units

Same as the TSM vs Echo Fox. Had to have this game against a bad OpTic roster.

Moneyline: Misfits -135 to defeat Vitality
Wager: 3 units
Payout:  5.22 units

Combination of overhype on Vitality paying off and Misfits coming into form. This line should've been like -250 or something in hindsight.


Currently 73-43 in props this year overall. Absolutely killing it in TCL and LPL. Check to see if lines change drastically to accomdate otherwise keep slamming these.


Moneyline: KSV eSports -769 to defeat BBQ Olivers
Wager: 5 units
Payout:  LOSS

You guys will see that I lost a 5 unit wager on KSV to beat Afreeca today (for next weeks numbers) making it 15+ units I've lost to this team over 3 bets this year. Clearly I have some type of emotional thing going on with this game because I'm not being logical about it (besides the scheduling thing which made sense). What am I doing laying 5 to make 1 here with a team tha'ts been as two-faced as... well... Two-Face.

Moneyline: KSV eSports -111 to defeat Afreeca (also map 1 and 2 bet)
Wager: 5 + 1 + 1 = 7 units
Payout: LOSS

(read above) I included this because it happened today.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -278 to defeat 100 Thieves
Wager: 4 units
Payout: LOSS

This one I think was sound logic and not an overaggressive wager for a best of one but I maybe should have put more consideration into the Cloud 9 have some breathing room narrative. Either way this one I can live with.

Lesson Learned:

1) KSV is your kryptonite, stay away:

I don't know what it is but I keep wanting to trust this team to get it's shit together and they just can't. They show up some weeks and don't on others and it makes no sense when they do and when they don't so I'm done trying to play the guessing game on them for awhile.

2) (REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK) Make sure a bad team is as bad as you think and a good team is as good as you think because best of ones really suck if you're not sure.

"Liquid, TSM, Giants... These are teams that haven't proven that they're "elite" teams just good teams. Golden Guardians, UOL... these are two bonafied bad teams but one has a fighting spirit (GG), one is actually bad and I just severely overrated Giants (UOL), and TSM has yet to show me yet that they can punish a mid tier team like Clutch who more or less plays to scale."

TSM get taken off this list, KSV and CLG added to this list.

3) You're absolutely killing it on these props and over/under bets. Let's check the line adjustment and see if our trends and reads on game script continue to match expectations. Currently 73-43 in props and over/unders. 

Week Six Roundup:
NA LCS: +11.87 units
EU LCS: -1.7475 units
LCK: -0.48 units
LPL:  +9.21 units
LMS: +1.28 units
TCL: +8.035 units (this is the past two weeks, I didnt put it in last weeks review)
LCL: -1.0 units
Parlays/Combos: 0

TOTAL FOR THE WEEK: +27.1675 units

Monday, February 26, 2018

Betting: February 27th (LCK / LPL)

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines. 

Afreeca Freecs -120 (54.5%) @ KSV eSports
KT Rolster -233 (70%) @ ROX Tigers


LCK February 27th Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-125, -1.5 @ +240, M1 -116, M2 -116, M3 -116)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KSV eSports (-111, +1.5 @ -357, M1 -116, M2 -116, M3 -116)

KT Rolster (-333, -1.5 @ -104, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+245, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +175, M2 +176, M3 +176)

Moneyline: KSV eSports -111 (5 units) 

Moneyline: KSV eSports Map 1 -116 (1 unit)

Moneyline KSV eSports Map 2 -116 (1 unit)

The first time these teams met this season was a hard fought series that went 47 minutes in game one to an Afreeca victory, then to a 71 minute slugfest that Afreeca missed out on ending by one auto attack on the nexus (literally one auto it's right here), followed up by a swift and decisive game three win by KSV against a clearly tilted Afreeca. Now you could look at this one of a few ways. The first is that Afreeca are clearly the stronger squad and should have 2-0'd this series in 47 minute game and roughly a 35 minute game. Another is the KSV are now in their heads much like the Patriots and their crazy comebacks seem to get into peoples heads in the NFL. At the time KSV was coming off of back to back 2-0 victories against Kingzone and Jin Air Green Wings and looked well on their way to disproving the championship hangover that typically happens. After that gut wrenching loss Afreeca proceeded to rattle off 10 game wins in a row. It wasn't until their first match after the week off against Jin Air that they finally lost a game and they did so in startling fashion. The Kingzone series was extremely close as well but ultimately a 1-2 loss. On the other hand KSV dropped a match 0-2 to bottom tier Kongdoo and their Galio comps, 1-2 against the upstart ROX tigers, and then two more 0-2s against a desparate SK Telecom and a close but winless 0-2 against top contender KT Rolster. 

I'm going with KSV and here's why:

  • For as good as Afreeca have looked (and damn is it exciting to have another contender), their 10 game winning streak was against the bottom 5 teams which included a struggling SK Telecom, and a ROX Tigers lineup that hit their stride immediately after that series. This leads to a little bit of public overestimation. In other words Afreeca have decimated the bottom tier temas but struggled with the top 5 (and Jin Air apparently).
  • KSV have shown better against the top teams, even in losses.
  • Similarly to the LPL topic yesterday, in a long season the good teams tend to "decide to start playing" a little bit later so as to avoid burnout. KSV it's less extreme a case than with EDG yesterday but I think theat lull of games was mostly just lazy drafting and likely lazy practice in the middle of the season in a metagame that they just assumed they'd win because of their history in the style. 
  • KSV have shown a willingness to play aggressive again, something that was severely lacking in their weird mid-season lull.
  • Individually I like every player on KSV slightly over their Afreeca counterpart except for AF jungler Spirit and KSV top laner CuVee who I feel has a decided advantage against Kiin even with Kiin playing well this split.
  • KSV: 1855 gold per minute, 1878 damage per minute, -24 gold differential per minute but only a -77 at 15 minutes
  • Afreeca: 1927 gold per minute, 1772 damage per minute, +75 gold differential per minute, but only +185 at 15 minutes  (MOST OF THIS COMES FROM AF's 57% First blood rate)
  • The tale of the tape shows us the KSV are typically doing more with less and have a similar record despite early game deficets during their weird mid-season lull.
  • In my Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" tiers for LCK I had KSV in the S+ and Afreeca alone in the S tier half a tier below them for a reason.
  • KSV have side choice.
  • KSV's last match was Thursday and they don't play another match until this coming Sunday while Afreeca played a tough series against Kingzone Saturday morning and have to come right back to play this one Tuesday morning and another tough matchup against a hungry and surging SK Telecom team on Thursday.
To me this is largely a momentum play. As impressed with Afreeca's improvement as I am (I had them underrated going into the season), they're still not quite to the level of the top three teams in Korea. Sure they can take games off of them but Afreeca are solidly in 4th place to me and there is a reason they'll finish there, they can't consistently beat KSV, KT, and Kingzone. Their opportunity to beat KSV was in week three and they just couldn't. KSV on the other hand seems to be waking up from their slumber and preparing for a playoff push. The counter argument would be to say that Afreeca are extra motivated for this match because of how the first one ended but I think the combination of the extremely tilting manner in which they lost having a boogeyman effect and their absolutley brutal schedule this week could have the opposite effect. KSV get to put some extra day's focus into this match that Afreeca unfortunately did not get the chance to. I think this could be a 2 - 0 for KSV so I'm putting a unit on each game score as well.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS

I'm done with this KSV team. Two-faced is an understatement. This is like that scene from Beerfest where the guy wakes up with the woman he slept with when drunk.  I mean look, Afreeca are a good team so this isn't like the biggest upset in history or anything like that but just the manner in which KSV went down in this series gives me very little hope the rest of the way against literally any team that's giving a shit about the games. So maybe they'll beat the bottom of the table teams or maybe they'll kick it back into gear if their playoff hopes are threatened but this was just a lazy, miserable performance. Very few teams ever get the luxury of the individual players KSV has, the money and resources, and the schedule that spoon fed them this win because it's the only game they need to give a damn about in a 7 day period. They squandered all of that. Props to Afreeca who I think are just the better team after having effectively 4-0'd this KSV team. I was misguided to think these guys would show up.


Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -104  (3 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -125 (1 unit each)

Moneyline: KT Rolster Maps 1 and 2 FIRST BLOOD @ -152 / -149 (1 unit each)

KT are in form and looking like the superteam that they are and they have an easy schedule this week which can go one of two ways. They play to show nothing and maybe lose a game because of it or they continue innovating to make a push for the #1 seed and maybe show more things for other teams to have to manage in the draft. With the Telecom War as well as a match with KSV next week I think there's a slight chance this becomes a week to keep things under wraps but with how SKT ran over ROX the other day I can't see a significantly stronger KT Rolster squad not doing exactly the same thing. I like this ROX team and there is a still a chance for them to make playoffs but I think they're more likely to be focused on their match later this week against BBQ Olivers, one of their competitors for that final playoff seed along with Jin Air and SK Telecom. With two wins this week KT Rolster can all but lock up a playoff spot so I'm trusting them to take care of business here.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN WIN

Result: LOSS WIN

Man this ROX Tigers team is fiesty. I really didn't like the draft from KT who simply HAD TO KNOW that ROX was going to take the fight to them and I think it lost them the game in both games. The first game was a lot less forgiveable a game for KT. The second was just ROX playing exceptionally well and executing a Taliyah+Tristana comp to perfection but the first there were a lot of errors by Pawn and he and Score did not seem on the same page. The real thing I'm wondering is whether or not people continue to underestimate this ROX Tigers team or if they're simply that good. Maybe it's a little bit of both.


LOL Pro League February 27th Schedule:

Team WE (-200, -1.5 @ +156, M1 -167, M2 -161, M3 -154)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
JD Gaming (+155, +1.5 @ -208, M1 +128, M2 +128, M3 +128)

TopSports Gaming (+126, +1.5 @ -250, M1 +113, M2 +112, M3 +112)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (-175, -1.5 @ +175, M1 -152, M2 -152, M3 -152)

Moneyline: JD Gaming +155 (1 unit)

Moneyline: JD Gaming +1.5 @ -208 (2 units)

Moneyline: JD Gaming Maps 1 and 2 First Blood (0.5 units each)

Similarly rated teams sit in similar positions within their conferences. As much as I like to think the whole "time to start trying again" narrative that we've been riding yesterday and today is a thing for worlds participants Team WE I don't think they've really settled on a roster that they like yet. There is a constant shuffle with three junglers and three supports that has to be maddening despite the strength of the players that remain starting. 

Both teams are coming off of relatively disappointing losses as well so I'm not entirely sure why Team WE is such a heavy favorite in this game. Loken has been one of the best players in China this split with an absolutely ridiculousy 10.1 KDA over 17 games so far and Yagao has been absolutley crushing it on a variety of picks with the help of Clid. 

With a 76% first blood rate I'm also going to roll with some wagers on that.

  • Roster volatility for WE
  • First blood in fast region with a faster patch than we've seen all season
  • Arguably the best ADC in China at the moment in Loken in a totally stacked pool at the position.
  • Line value
  • Side choice for JD Gaming
Result:  LOSS

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN  LOSS

JD got smashed in these games simply put. It happens. World Elite are the better team and showed it.


Moneyline: TopSports Gaming +126  (1 unit)

TopSports Gaming came back from the Chinese New Year break with two new solo lanes. Hall of Fame bound, former world champion MaRin (ex-SKT, LGD, and Afreeca) and multi-world championship participant Corn. They got their first match victory 2-1 against Vici Gaming (the worst team in the league). While it might not mean much to barely beat the bottom team in the league these are two game changing players. MaRin inparticular has played with Chinese lineups before (in LGD) and despite his age and limited champion pool causes a lot of problems for enemy teams in drafts even as recently as last Summer in the LCK. MaRin is still good and it's surprising none of the lower ranked Korean teams took a flyer on him even in a leadership role. Regardless I'm willing to lay a unit on the Corn + MaRin effect. FunPlus Phoenix did just upset JD Gaming and take a game off of Invictus but the truth is this isn't really a good team and I'm sure during their extended times in the professional scene in both Korea and China that GimGoon has had his ass kicked by MaRin a bunch of times.

Result: LOSS

I'm ok with this lottery ticket loss. There's a reason I kept it to one unit but it appears FPP might but on a slight uptick.


Sunday, February 25, 2018

Betting: February 26th (LPL / TCL)

LOL Pro League (China) February 26th Schedule:

Rogue Warriors (-250, -1.5 @ +140, M1 -189, M2 -182, M3 -182)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
BiliBili Gaming (+185, +1.5 @ -192, M1 +137, M2 +139, M3 +139)

EDward Gaming (-303, -1.5 @ -104, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Suning Gaming (+215, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +186, M2 +186, M3 +186)

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming +185 (1 unit)

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming +1.5 maps @ -192 (2 units)

This is mostly a bet on a line being grossly inaccurate but unlike the EDG bet you'll see next this one feels like it will be a closer match. BBG had a couple of clean games against a relatively poor LGD squad hwile RW haven't played since the returning from break so it's possible they're just too prepared but I actually think this matchup should be close to a pick 'em. Rogue Warriors have been playing a lot of really bizarre strategies and while SmLz and DoinB are excellent players they can't keep getting away with this Karma/Lulu mid plus Kog or another hyper carry nonsense. They're also undefeated from red side and I'm not sure BBG are going to give them counterpick in these games. This should be like a -100/-120 type of matchup to me. Both teams are relatively even in economy and other metrics and, in my opinion BBG have had a very slightly tougher schedule. I think Athena and SKS can keep Flawless under control and use that to influence the bottom lane enough that SmLz can't just free scale on a hyper carry.




Moneyline: EDward Gaming -1.5 maps @ -104 (2 units)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)

I don't really think this line should be this big. Suning are 4-3 with a 10-7 game record while Edward are 5-1 with a 10-5 game record. Both teams struggle against the top teams but are decisively better than the bottom of the table which puts them in their own tier in the 3rd place slot. I'm going to go with EDward gaming here even with this inaccurate line. They've got better economy, stronger players in every position besides ADC which I think goes to ex-LCK player Fury who has been absolutely destroying every other ADC besides Loken in the LPL. Maybe I'm a bit biased towards history but this EDG team has been so dominant domestically and this feels similarly to RNG yesterday in that "it's about time we start trying." 

The LPL season is significantly longer than the other leagues around the world so, similarly to hockey or basketball, you have really good teams that just coast or start their subs early in the season so they don't burn out by the end. This feels like as good a time as any in EDG's first game after the break to kick it into another gear. I also think for as good as Suning have been they're one of those first half hockey teams that has to try hard and outhustle to beat teams because they don't have the talent and then the Pittsburgh Penguins just decide to start playing hockey again and make a deep playoff run. It happens almost every year and the LPL has a similar trajectory for a lot of teams. This is a bit of a gut shot because the metrics would tell you this line is grossly inaccurate and you should take Suning for the value but I'm going to zig while everyone else is zagging and go with the multi-time LPL champions to kick it into gear for the second half coming off of a break.



Turkish Champions League Feb 26th Schedule:

Royal Bandits -385 @ Team AURORA +255
Dark Passage -909 @ Galakticos +470
SuperMassive -1250 @ YouthCrew +565
1907 Fenerbahce -400 @ HWA Gaming +264

Moneyline: Royal Bandits First Blood @ -159 (1 unit)

Moneyline: RB @ AUR UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Moneyline: DP @ GAL UNDER 35:00 @ -120 (1 unit)

Moneyline: SUP @ YC UNDER 32:00 @ -135 (1 unit)

Moneyline: FB @ HWA UNDER 34:00 @ -132 (1 unit)

Once again following up on my under trends in the TCL that I've been collecting on this week.