Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Betting: May 1st (MSI Play-In Day 1)

Mid Season Invitational - Play-In Stage Day 1

We did an entire podcast episode about the first two days and out general outlook on these teams so I'd direct you to check that out. That said here are my picks and a brief justification.

Bombers +287 vs Phong Vu (1 unit)

This is mostly a bet against Phong Vu not for the Bombers. While I think Phong Vu offer perhaps the highest ceiling in this group along with Fenerbahce, the manner in which they play is really inconsistent. You might ask how I can say that when they utterly destroyed domestically and I'd point that itself as evidence. Phong Vu are worlds miles better than the rest of the VCS. I'd say honestly like two tiers better at least. They brute force their way through everything with absolutely no tact whatsoever and while that works domestically it could be exposed by stronger competition. On the show I compared them to a fighter that just has tremendous size but no real skills that can win fights against unskilled opponents just on his size alone but against more skilled fighters that are ALSO his size his lack of ability will come to bear. Phong Vu could definitely prove me wrong but Vietnam has been overrated (and miscast) since the Gigabyte Marines run. I think Phong Vu have a reasonable chance to get out of this group and they're my second pick behind Fenerbahce as I think they're clearly better than Bombers and Isurus but I'm going to bet against their style/mannerisms that they'll drop a game and if we pick the right one we're up even if we lose the others. Look around on your books I've seen +300 or more at other shops.

Isurus +223 vs Phong Vu (1.5 units)

Similar reasoning to above. I may be overrating Isurus a tad because of the combination of the two Latin American leagues improving competition but I'm willing to stick to my guns. I think Isurus might suprise some people.

Isurus -147 vs Bombers (3 units)

I don't mean to disrespect the Oceanic Pro League representatives but as mentioned above I think people are sleeping on Isurus just a bit. Consider this my flag being planted on the hill of Isurus. This is a tad heavy for regions I don't follow closely I'll admit but just from what I've watched I actually like Isurus more and think they'll be the 3rd best team in this group come tournaments end as long as they stick to how they like to play.

Fenerbahce +115 vs Phong Vu (5 units)

I got this in earlier in the week and this line has since moved to -105. I think Fenerbahce are the strongest team in this group by enough of a margain that I'm going to fire on this. I don't normally bet more than 3 units on best of ones and this is admittedly heavy handed so feel free to cut this in half but I think Fenerbahce are the strongest team in this group and the entire play-in tournament besides Liquid. If it was possible I would have liked to see them face Flash Wolves because I feel they could have won. This team is good. Their style isn't exactly the greatest for best of one which is my only real reservation but I think they'll mop the floor with this group and win five or all six games. Phong Vu is their only challenge and while it wouldn't surprise me to see Phong Vu take them down in a game I do think Fenerbahce should be the favorite to get out of this group and the books don't seem to think that. Firing on this heavily for a combination of value and strong albeit not surpreme confidence.

Parlay (2): Isurus -161 vs Bombers + Fenerbahce +115 vs Phong Vu @ total odds +248 (1 unit)

Unfortunately I put this parlay in before Isurus odds dropped to -147 but I try to share all my wagers.


Day two tomorrow or later tonight.

Thursday, April 18, 2019

Betting: April 19th-21st (LPL and LMS Finals)

LPL Spring 2019 - Finals

What a strange trip this LPL Spring has been. Seemingly having everything pinned down and sorted out, we were on pace to finish way up in the LPL. I thought I had finally figured the region out and then things went completely haywire in playoffs. JDG's rise to this point has been, at times, impressive. Taking down a red hot Team WE was an impressive upset but one that a lot of people certainly didn't rule out, myself included. I bet WE heavy which was a mistake because it was mostly the value that interested me however I, as well as many others, thought "There's no way they beat RNG." Well they did. And then they beat FunPlus... and we're going all the way to Idaho... YUUUUURRRRREAAAAAA!! 

While not all of you may have caught that reference you did catch that this JDG team just keeps winning. I know I've been saying "the buck stops here" against every opponent they've faced and I probably look like a dumbass by now but the truth of the matter is that JDG are STILL EXTREMELY LUCKY. There I said it. JDG are making an incredible amount of mistakes and getting away with it. I don't believe in "chaos style" or "dragging your opponents down" as much as most people do but they've certainly been doing some degree of that because RNG were off and FunPlus were TOTALLY OUT OF CHARACTER. 

That said I think we need to give some amount of credit to JDG for taking what was given to them even though they refused to accept a few gifts that were handed to them by FunPlus Phoenix and I think that's the main point I'm getting at. It takes a ceratin level of play to get to an LPL Finals for sure but this team has been straight up lucky and I'm not afraid to say that. If anything it speaks volumes about just how good Zoom is because he, Flawless, and Yagao have been hard carrying this bot lane like I do my level 2 teammates on a brand new account against bots. Imp inparticular (impparticular?) has been absolutely abysmal all playoffs long. So many pointless deaths that could have lost a game and just haven't! Sure you could argue that "well they didn't lose anything so he clearly knew they wouldn't lose anything" and that's fine. I disagree but that's fine I can't convince you otherwise. Imp has been terrible and can only improve but I'm fairly certain he's going to remain a liability.

This series boils down to one player on JDG and that's Zoom. JDG have him to thank for being here as he's been absolutely dumpstering everyone in his path in all sorts of matchups. As a matter of fact I think he should be the MVP of the LPL this split regardless of the result here. He's not only one of the best players in the LPL but one of the best players in the world at any position.... but TheShy is better....

TheShy might be the only top laner on the planet right now that I would say is better than Zoom and both of them are playing at intergalactic level. I'm not sure Zoom is going to be able to acrue the same advantages against him as he has everyone else he's played and it's for that reason that I'm hammering Invictus. Invictus severely outclass JDG in three of the remaining four and slightly outclass in the jungle. IG just obliterated TopSports in the only series they've had to play while JDG have been slugging it out with back to back five game series against RNG and FunPlus as well as a 3-1 against Team WE. Invictus have all the game film they could possibly want and the concern of "rust" from all the playoff byes was clearly not an issue as they dismantled TopSports.

This is a literal double book max bet for me. It comes out to a little more then 21 units on the Invictus -1.5. Invictus are still one of the three best teams in the world and are the class of an extremely strong LPL which speaks volumes. They have the individual advantage, they have arguably the one player on the planet that can match or potentially outplay Zoom's ridiculous level of play right now in TheShy, they have experience, more team versatility, and significantly stronger team play AND individuals across the board, all this while only playing one series in which they showed very little and JDG have played a whopping 14 playoff games worth of film for IG to study. IG have also shaken off any potential rust in their match against TopSports while JDG have to be growing exhausted both strategically and physically. Invictus just have too many game changers that can blow a game wide open.

I feel very strongly that this will be a 3-0 for Invictus and I'm betting accordingly. We aren't exactly getting a ton of value here but this is about as close to a shoebox bet as we can get. I'll note that I've missed a few of these this season but I'm as all in as I possibly can be on this match maxing out the -1.5 AND the 3-0 prop.

"Gut": Invictus 3-0 (heavy)

Confidence: 5 / 5 (handicap), 6 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0 /1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 @ -192 (21.5 unit BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact Invictus 3-0 @ +158 (5 units BOOK MAX)

UPDATE: Line moved up, limit opened up, 36.5 ADDITIONAL units on the IG -1.5. 

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 @ -200 (36.5 units)

Yes this absurd, no you don't need to tail at these weights, but I've never been more sure of a bet in my life! This is the largest wager I've ever placed.


LMS (Taiwan) Spring 2019 - Finals

I'll first state that I've only really watched MAD Team, Flash Wolves, JTeam and AHQ matches for the regular season in the LMS but I have watched all the playoff series (coincidentally these four teams). I feel this series should probably be closer to 50/50 than it is. Flash Wolves own the regular season advantage with both match wins and a 4-1 game score. They looked shakey at times throughout the season with a few weird losses but this feels a lot to me like they're peaking at the right time after winning a slugfest against a red hot AHQ that had come in with only a few losses since mid season solidifying their roster.

I trust the machine and process here. You need to remember that this was essentially a "rebuilding year" for Flash Wolves who lost a lot of their roster so it took some time for them to come together. I'm going to put a light wager on the Flash Wolves. This is 3/4th's value and 1/4th gut feeling/eye test. I think Flash Wolves are the higher potential team and we haven't seen all they can do yet. MAD Team certainly have the strategic advantage of being able to watch all this playoff film on Flash Wolves and that's the edge here but between having their number all year WHILE growing, AND looking good against a suddenly good AHQ team, AND a full week to prepare for this match I think this line should be closer to 50/50 and thus, a small wager on the underdog or should I say the underwolves!

"Gut": Flash Wolves +120 (light)

Confidence: 4 / 5 (handicap), 3 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 1.0 /1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Flash Wolves +120 (2 units)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves +1.5 @ -182 (4 units)



Parlay (2): IG 3-0 + Flash Wolves +1.5 @ +309 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Flash Wolves ML + IG -1.5 @ +232 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): KT -1.5 vs JAG (W) + FPP -159 (W) + IG -1.5 @ +269 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): Flash Wolves +120 + IG -1.5 + FunPlus -159 (W) @ +441 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): IG -1.5 + Funplus -159 (W) @ +146 (2 units)

Parlay (2): FunPlus -1.5 + IG -1.5 @ +235 (1 unit)

Friday, April 12, 2019

Betting: March 12th, 13th, 14th (LCK, LPL, NA Finals, LEC R3, IWC Region Finals)

Full Disclosure:
I'm going extremely heavy this weekend. When I say extremely heavy I mean likely my biggest single day ever on Saturday. I'd advise cutting my actual pick wagers in half or just ignoring one or the other of the moneyline/-1.5s. I'm doing both. 


Ahh Finals Week (mostly)! We got absolutely crushed last week but as we talked a lot about on the podcast this week it wasn't all bad beats either. I actually feel just as strong about this weekends slate. We're going to see the cream rising to the top as we get deeper into the final rounds of playoffs here and I'll be super heavy duty this weekend. I'm not going to scare from a historically bad week when the lines are ripe for the picking! Let's get to it!

Speaking of the podcast The Gold Card Podcast Episode 8 is up on iTunes and PodBean!

iTunes Link

(NOTE: I put a lot of these bets in Tuesday and Wednesday this week so the lines likely changed significantly. Use your judgement on whether it's grown out of range or adjust your weight acccordingly.)

LCK Spring 2019 Finals:

Man oh man is this going to be a match! The last meeting between these two in the regular season was, for my money, the best series worldwide so far this season. Super high level, dramatic, twists, turns, the whole nine yards! We talked at length about this one on the podcast but I'll recap a few of the major ideas I had. I'm on Griffin here. I know they looked shakey to end the season but they've literally had a couple weeks to prepare for SK Telecom, who you'd presume to be facing and SK Telecom had their moments of shakiness as well this season. 

The public is going to be on SK Telecom I think. All of my cohosts were on SKT for various reasons that mostly amounted to a combination of veteran experience and gut feeling. There's also the narrative of the kings recapturing their throne. I for one feel that while not quite as experienced as the four Hall of Famers on SKT, Griffin were here last season against a KT Rolster team that was just as formidable and in their very first split nearly walked to Worlds as Korea's #1 seed.

SK Telecom did just 3-0 Kingzone who were blazing hot the entire second half and playoffs and that's significant even if we think the 3-0 was a closer series than the score indicates. It means something to defeat such a good squad that way but it's like we completely forgot just how ridiculous this Griffin team was for most of the season.

 Another aspect to this series is information. Information matters more in Korea than any other region because of the way they approach and play the game. Griffin with information and time to prepare is a much more potent weapon than I think people are giving credit for. They'll have seen film from SKT's series against a great Kingzone team AND will have side selection. I think this series goes the distance but Griffin edge it out 3-2. My colleagues had this more of a 3-2.8 score for SKT I'm closer to a 3-2.1 for Griffin. As impressive as SKT's victory was I think people are just forgetting how good this Griffin team is and to me the only two arguments you can make against them is the veteran leadership on SKT or the "getting cold" from not playing factor. This team might not be as experienced but they're ready and I think they get the job done!

(This bet is a little heavier than I think this series actually deserves because I want to hammer the point home that I like Griffin but I do think this is a 1-2 unit moneyline wager without the amplified point)

"Gut": Griffin ML (light)

Confidence: 2 / 5 (handicap), 3 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0 /1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Griffin -149 (3 units)

Prop: Exact Griffin 3-2 @ +407 (1 unit)

Prop: Game five played? Yes @ +188 (1 unit)


LPL Spring 2019 Semifinals:

We spent a lot of time talking about this matchup on the podcast so I'd encourage you to listen to that discussion. The long and short of it is that we parsed out exactly why JDG has been able to do what they've done in back to back series and it goes beyond just "they're hot." JDG are hot. They're playing more or less at their ceiling and have been for a few series now but I, as well as my cohosts, believe that they've benefited quite a bit from a stylistic advantage that we just didn't give enough credence to.

Team WE and RNG are both ADC-centric strategic teams. Of course one of those is better than the other but the big picture philosophical approach is similar by both teams. JDG had an execellent game plan that plays directly to their strengths as a team to attack those kinds of teams which was, quite simply, dive the ADC and that's what they did. They made life a living hell for Uzi and Mystic. Now that's certainly not an easy thing to do so I'll give credit where it's due for that but FunPlus are a completely different animal. They're more like the roided up version of JDG. They're a deathball style team and they're damn good at it, so much so that I've taken to calling FunPlus "The Juggernaut" because they just bullrush and you have a lot of trouble stopping them regardless of whether they show any tact or not.

The counterargument to this selection is actually rather simple. You could say that JDG and FunPlus are "basically the same team so this is closer to a 50/50" and I wouldn't fault anybody for approaching it in that way but to me if we're going to rate the "deathball" teams in the LPL I actually think FunPlus are the best at it and JDG wouldn't even crack the top five in that style alone. I even think teams like Victory Five and SinoDragon do this better than JDG does but JDG aren't totally one dimensional like those teams are. Speaking of that, I don't want to just paint JDG one color here. They're more than capable of playing other strategies but they're significantly worse at them (except maybe 1-3-1).

To me this series boils down to two primary factors.

First, that FunPlus are simply a much MUCH better team. FunPlus are just about as strong a brute force team that I've ever seen. There isn't even a lot of creativity to them they're just better than you and they play like they know it and often win bad compositional and individual matchups regardless. FunPlus also have the best individual player and this season LPL MVP DoinB as well as a distinct advantage at all positions except the top lane where GimGoon has actually done an excellent job neutralizing other threatening top laners.

Second is that JDG have benefited tremendously from favorable stylistic matchups. In other words if JDG are scissors in rock-paper-scissors they just ran into paper twice. Admittedly this is something I should have factored in more than I did but if you remember I did call RNG carbon filament or something that could beat the scissors in this metaphor. FunPlus Phoenix are the rock. A really big, rolling rock... hell let's just call it the Pokemon Golem.

The point I'm getting at is that not only are FunPlus Phoenix significantly better, despite their strategic shortcomings, but JDG honestly wouldn't be anywhere close to here without catching a few favorable matchups. Because of this we're getting better than expected value on FunPlus as well, not by a lot but certainly better than I thought this series would be. I'm firing heavy once again on this selection and it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see FunPlus 3-0 bulldoze JDG.

"Gut": FunPlus -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.8 / 5 (handicap), 5 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0 /1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: FunPlus Phoenix -1.5 maps @ +105 (5 units)

Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix -208 (10 units)


LEC (Europe) Spring 2019 Round 3:

I'm not quite as bullish on Fnatic as I am on FunPlus simply because I think there is a slightly smaller gap between these two teams but I'm still quite heavy on Fnatic. To me, Europe sort of feels like Korea in that the top three teams are distinctly tiered. G2 are the clear cut best team, Fnatic are the next best currently, and I think Vitality would be at the top of the next tier which you could argue includes Origen. So are Fnatic going to utterly destroy this with absolute certainty? No. As a matter of fact I actually do think Origen will get a game against Fnatic because if each team had it their way, they'd play a very similar style. The big difference to me is that Fnatic, like G2 but to a lesser extent, have more weapons in their arsenal and we saw how that panned out in the G2 series for Origen.

I also think Bwipo has returned to his MVP level. He's not perfect by any stretch but the opportunities he creates with his stalls, counterplay to dives, and his versaility just make him such a nightmare for other teams to deal with in much the same way that TheShy does in the LPL. Fnatic look a lot like the team we thought they'd be before the season started and a lot of people had them at #1 in Europe by the end of the split. It turns out G2 had something to say about that but Fnatic are still an excellent fundamental team with some extra surprises cooked in.

Origen, on the other hand, are exactly what they look like. Origen are kind of like 100 Thieves in NA last year in that they just play good, solid, fundamental League of Legends and they do their best to gameplan to attack the weakness of the opponents even if it's not flashy in much the same way that the New England Patriots do. The difference is that this team doesn't have Tom Brady or Bill Belichek. I'm higher on Origen than a lot of people are and teams like this always do well domestically but struggle against the top teams in their region or against elite, international competition because, to put it simply, their ceiling is just not that high.

Origen are a high floor, low ceiling, consistent team and those often don't get the job done in clutch situations where elite players can break games open. Fnatic have gamebreaking players like G2 does. These are two teams that are going to be international contenders and likely will make it out of groups at Worlds if their draw isn't absymal. These are World Class Teams. Origen just isn't and unlike a team such as Vitality or Schalke where you could envision a spike in play quality towards that teams ceiling and an upset of Fnatic, I'm just not seeing it with Origen. If Fnatic were able to 3-0 Vitality I'm extremely confident they'll at least 3-1 Origen. By no means is Fnatic flawless or as good as G2 but after handling two distinctly different teams in Vitality and Splyce they now get to face perhaps the most fundamentally sound but also a significantly limited team in Origen.When we're getting close to even money on the -1.5 I'm going to slam that all day.

"Gut": Fnatic -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5 / 5 (handicap), 5 / 5 (ML)

Value: 1.0 /1.5 (handicap), 0 /1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Fnatic -1.5 maps @ -112 (4 units)

Moneyline: Fnatic -238 (8 units)


North American LCS Spring 2019 Finals:

I want to give a lot of credit to TSM for that comeback against Cloud 9 because they did play quite well but the fact is Cloud 9 threw that series in spectacular fashion. Even in game three I thought they were in good shape to clean up a sweep before a few arrogant mistakes cost them the game. Game four was a panic/punt draft if you ask me and I'm not sure but perhaps Reapered thought they could slam the door shut but as soon as that doesn't work you can't go back to the well. What I'm saying is that while TSM earned the win I think this was much more a Cloud 9 loss than it was a TSM win.

Going into the TSM/C9 series I tried to figure out exactly how the line had TSM slightly favored and in my search I believe I figured it out. If you were to build and ELO model for professional play I could see TSM being higher rated than Cloud 9 solely based on the fact that they had two wins against the top rated team in Team Liquid while Cloud 9 had zero. Those familiar with ELO systems will know that your quality of oppoennt has a great impact on rating earned and lost relative to you. Anyway the point I'm getting at is that this matchup looks like it could be interesting with Bjergsen playing in great form AND the fact that TSM took both games during the regular series. I'm here to tell you it's not going to be.

Team Liquid are a lot like G2 to me in that they're just so much better than their region that they're in a tier all their own. I'm not sure Liquid are quite as creative and good as G2 is but they also don't get the credit they deserve for a lot of the things they do because people just like to rag on them for punting a few games while experiementing in the middle of the season. You wanna talk about experimenting? Supposedly, based on comms which could be BS so take this with a grain of salt, but Team Liquid said in comms that they'd only scrimmed with Sona+Taric once before bringing it on stage and I actually believe that because it wasn't that clean. Teams like this can get away with that. Team Liquid are smurfing.

I actually like TSM quite a bit going into this season so I'm not surprised at all to see them performing as well as they are but they're still not even in the same ballpark at Team Liquid if you ask me. As a matter of fact, just like in Korea and Europe, I think the top three teams are distinctly tiered from each other which puts TSM two tiers below Team Liquid for me. Liquid is a world class team and while TSM might end up going to worlds, much like Origen, they simply are not. Team Liquid also didn't need to show much against FlyQuest and will have side selection for this series.

Strategically I think Team Liquid have a lot more depth and a higher ceiling. The statistics also tell us this should be a fairly lopsided victory for Team Liquid. The eye test tells me this should be clean victory for Team Liquid. Factor in side selection and the fact that Cloud 9 threw harder than Nolan Ryan to get TSM here and I think we're look at a 3-1 Liquid win. I do think TSM are good enough to take a game in this series but I'd be shocked if it was more than that. Because of the models I presume the books are using we're actually getting a tasty +105 on the handicap for Liquid now which incentivizes us even more and to me we're actually getting a bit of value on the moneyline too even though it's still pricy. I think this is a series where it'd be easy to get fooled into thinking TSM have a good shot because of how they played and who they just beat but upon further investigation you'd find this should be more lopsided than this. I give them a game, two at best.

"Gut": Liquid -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5 / 5 (handicap), 5 / 5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0.5 /1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Team Liquid -1.5 maps @ +105 (5 units)

Moneyline: Team Liquid -196 (10 units)


Wildcard Regions Finals/Semifinals:


I used to watch Brazil a fair amount but I just haven't kept up with it this season. Flamengo went 20-1 in the triple round robin, best of one CBLoL losing only to Kabum! (RIP). INTZ went 13-8 for the #2 seed. INTZ battled to a 3-2 victory against #3 seed Redemption POA last round while Flamengo 3-0'd #4 CNB. This is probably a Flamengo 3-0 and weirdly, as you'll see, we're getting WAY better odds on the -2.5 than we are with DFM who are a -1429 favorite.

Handicapped: Flamengo -2.5 @ +156 (1 unit)


Detonation Focus Me are just too good for this region. With a ridiculous 20-1 game score in the triple round robin best of one LJL, DFM utterly obliterated the competition. Unsold Stuff ended the regular season #3 with a 12-9 game score but decisively 3-0'd #2 seed Crest in the first round of the playoffs. You could see Unsold taking a game here but there's a reason this line is -1429... in a finals.... In a 21 game regular season DFM won SEVEN MORE GAMES THAN 2nd PLACE.

Handicapped: Detonation FM -2.5 @ +117 (0.5 unit)
(max allowed by book)


This is actually going to be a really interesting final because unlike previous years, the TCL has three really excellent teams in SuperMassive, Fenerbahce, and Royal Youth. Both SuperMassive and Fenerbahce finished the season 16-2 but Supermassive had the significantly harder road to finals. After taking a two game lead in the series, Royal Youth was able to bring it all the way back to a game five with a decisive game three win to turn the momentum.

If I had to bet this I'd take the underdog Fenerbahce to finally unseat this SuperMassive team that has more or less become a dynasty despite roster changes. I think SuperMassive have the better players individually if you consider history but in the current season Ruin, Kirei, and Hades have been absolutely ridiculous. Ruin inparticular has been borderline unstoppable this season and is putting up a performance similar to TheShy... but so is Frozen and the SuperMassive bottom lane.

This is ultimately a battle of top of map vs bottom of the map. If you prefer bottom take SuperMassive. I'm going to put money on the underdog Fenerbahce because I think these teams should be 50/50 and that  fabFabulous is going to get utterly destroyed by Ruin while Hades and Japone could hold their own. Also I think Fenerbahce have been better on the whole this season.

Moneyline: 1907 Fenerbahce +122 (1 unit)

Commonwealth of Independent States (LCL):

I unfortunately haven't been able to catch any of the LCL this split so take this with a grain of salt. The LCL is 8 teams and they play best of one double round robin for regular season. Elements and Gambit finished the regular season atop the standings at 12-2 while Vega finished #3 at 10-4. Vega Squadron split their regular season series 1-1 with both Elements AND Gambit. Vega Squadron then decisively 3-0'd Gambit in their first playoff match. Elements ALSO 3-0'd their playoff series but against the much softer M19.

I haven't watched the LCL all split but Vega Squadron absolutely dismantled Gambit with a 25 minute game one win, 27 minute game two (despite even kill total), and a longer 35 minute win in game 3. A cursory review of these drafts would reveal that Gambit really do not have a firm grasp on this metagame and while the strong teams can sometimes get away with that in an IWC region it's not always the case. Vega are drafting the power picks and using them well. Elements are a weird. Yorick, Jarvan, Vi, Urgot jungle (just like Gambit btw), Miss Fortune in two games... like what is this?

Again take this with a grain of salt because I didn't watch these games but honestly on drafts and momentum alone I'm willing to take a two unit gamble on the underdogs to take this at this number. If you consider Elements and Gambit similar level and Vega Squadron trashed the veteran Gambit squad AND have a great read on this metagame I absolutely love the underdogs here. One unit for pure value, the other because I think they're actually the right side. Light wager obviously because this isn't a region I'm in tune with.

Moneyline: Vega Squadron +194 (2 units)

Vietnam (VCS):

Vietnam plays best of three for their regular season. Phong Vu went 13-1 with a 27-5 game score. Their only match loss was to #5 ranked GAM. EVOS entered playoffs as the #3 seed with their 9-5 regular season record and 18-11 game score. Phong Vu went 4-0 in the regular season series between the two. Three of the four games were very lopsided stomps by Phong Vu and one was a close 39 minute win by Phong Vu. This is a pretty obscene line but I think it's accurate. I'm going to put a unit on the Phong Vu 3-0. You could hedge and do a 0.5-0.8 unit pick on the 3-1 if you like but in all likelihood this is going to be an utter stomping. Phong Vu are like Flash Wolves the last four years, simply too good for this region to keep up with. That said I haven't watched a ton of VCS just Phong Vu's games so I'm keeping action light here.

Prop: Exact Phong Vu 3-0 @ +140 (1 unit)



I haven't done a ton of this this year but I was profitable running what I like to call grid parlays last year on slates of 3-4 games I'm extremely confident in. Essentially you bet relative weights on outcomes of series to net money from the plus odds even if one goes awry. Just for sheer amount of work I won't list the odds of each individual bet but the two part parlays are mostly in the +100 (lowest the FPP + IG MLs)  to +290  range (TL + FNC -1.5's). You could do the same with three and four parts if you like but anybody that knows factorials know the amount of entries gets pretty nuts. I'll pick a few choices ones in the next section.

  • 1 unit on moneyline + moneyline
  • 0.5 unit on one moneyline + one handicap
  • 0.25 unit on one handicap + one handicap
I'll also be doing a few "moonshots" or fun larger parlays on this weekend since I feel quite strongly that I have this weekend nailed down entirely. On the fun ones tail at your own caution since I'm not weighting them relatively just kinda firing.

Grid Parlays:

(parts to the left, wager to the right)

Moonshots / Fun Parlays:

(TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK these are mostly for entertainment! Weights are not relative to confidence!)

Saturday Major Non-LCK ML Parlay (3): 
Fnatic ML + Liquid ML + FunPlus ML @ +183 (2.5 units)

Saturday EXACTA Parlay (4): 
FNC 3-1 + Liquid 3-1 + Griffin 3-2 + FunPlus 3-0 @ +20,097 (0.25 units)

Saturday Major ML Parlay (4):
Fnatic ML + Liquid ML + Griffin ML + FunPlus ML @ +373 (1.5 units)

Saturday Major Handicap Parlay (4):
Fnatic -1.5 + Liquid -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + FunPlus -1.5 @ +1545 (1 units)

Sat + Sun Major Handicap Parlay (5):
Fnatic -1.5 + Liquid -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + FunPlus -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 @ +3140 (1 unit)

Mixed Major Parlay (5): 
FunPlus -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + SuperMassive ML + Liquid ML + Fnatic ML @ +1570 (0.5 units)

Full Saturday Slate Moneyline Parlay (6): 
Fnatic ML + Liquid ML + Griffin ML + FunPlus ML + SuperMassive ML + Phong Vu ML @ +878 (1 unit)

Saturday + Sunday Handicap plus Liquid -2.5 from last week (5):
Liquid -2.5 (won) + Fnatic -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + FunPlus -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 @ +3921 (0.25 units)

The Big Kahuna #1 (8):
Invictus -1.5 + Fnatic -1.5 + Liquid -1.5 + Griffin ML + FunPlus -1.5 + Flamengo -2.5 + Detonation FM -2.5 + Phong Vu -1.5 @ +18,370 (0.05 units)

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Betting: April 7th (LCK Playoffs Round 3, LPL Playoffs Semifinals

LCK Spring 2019 - Playoffs Round 3:

This is an absolutely fascinating matchup! Kingzone look unbelievably good this year (glad I got one prediction right!) but as impressive as they looked in their 3-0 vs DAMWON we need to remind ourselves that all year long we've said SKT and Kingzone both are a tier better than DAMWON and Sandbox. So the question becomes how do these two teams stack up? Is SKT substantially better? A little better? Not better? Let's take a closer look.

Before any sort of discussion of metrics or other thoughts I want to do something that I'm going to try to pay more attention to in my capping moving forward and that's the generalized approach of both of these teams. What kinds of compositions do they like to play? What are their strengths? Are they versatile? How do they measure up against each other? 

SK Telecom have shown a lot of versatility this split. They've tried all sorts of compositions but their bigger picture styte regardless of whether it's a late or mid game focus is to maintain two priority lanes. Super fundamental and rather simple in theory but the bind that their superstar roster puts other teams into during draft is how they're able to get it so often.

Kingzone have also shown a lot of versatility playing a ridiculous number of champions and styles and the late career resurrection Pawn has seemed to have has allowed Kingzone to do a lot of things we couldn't have imagined before this season started. Kingzone are a lot more willing to take risks in draft than SK Telecom are which is unsurprising considering the coaching both of these teams have.  The biggest difference besides that risk aversion level is that Cuzz is much more focused on playing tanks and playing proactive defense while Clid is a much more about getting actual gold into the hands of his lanes through kills or his own through jungle 1v1's. Both junglers are more than capable of playing other things but that's been the general approach by both this season. 

So what does all this big picture stuff mean? The way I see it, Kingzone actually have a higher strategic ceiling because they're much more willing to take risks in the draft. That's not to call them a risky team but they're willing to try something different. SKT aren't completely risk averse either but they're much less so than Kingzone are. If Kingzone can jump out and take game one then SK Telecom are going to be in quite the bind because of Kingzone's willingness to try different things but SKT also have a handful of Hall of Fame players that have the ability to stabalize.

This is an extremely difficult one to call. I think SKT have the higher overall ceiling and I think they are the slightly better team. So many of their advantages have come in the draft, Clid getting lanes ahead, and their bottom lane just generally being incredible but Kingzone's bottom lane has looked like the best bottom lane in any region this split. Deft and Tusin are ridiculously good and they don't miss any edge they can get. To me this series boils down to Clid and Faker vs Pawn and Cuzz. It's close. Before this season I would've said Clid and Faker no problem but Pawn's late career ressurection and history of having Faker's number could come into play here. It's more even than it looks.

Another angle is momentum and whether or not SKT can stop it. SKT have had the film advantage and we saw in the Kingzone vs DAMWON series just how huge of an advantage that can be. SKT are likely going to know exactly how Kingzone want to approach things but SKT are also a much different team than DAMWON is in how they approach the game so maybe the film doesn't reveal much. 

I know a lot of these thoughts were scatterbrained and segemented but it's all a really long way of saying that I believe SKT probably win this series but I think the correct bet is actually the Kingzone moneyline from a technical standpoint. This series is extremely close considering how hot Kingzone have been and I don't think there's as big a gap here as there was. I don't say that just because of the absolute tear the Kingzone have been on either. They've looked like they're in the same tier as SK Telecom the second half of the split.

I'm going to put a light wager on the Kingzone moneyline because I think we're actually getting some value here but other than that I'm going to just enjoy this one. These two teams look excellent and SKT have had a lot of time off to prep so this could be an unstoppable force meeting and impenetrable wall sort of situation.

"Gut": SKT ML (lean)

Confidence: 5 / 5 (KZ handicap), 2.5 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0 / 1.5 (handicap),  1.0 / 1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Kingzone +149 (1 unit)


LPL Spring 2019 - Semifinals:

Friday, April 5, 2019

Betting: April 6th (LPL Quarterfinals, LEC Semifinals, NA LCS Semifinals)

It's very rare that I get really bent out of shape over a loss, even big ones because it's a long season and in the grand scheme of things it rarely matters but we took an absolutely brutal loss yesterday. I don't like to get all conspiracy theory on everyone but that sincerely felt fixed. That EDG -1.5 was the most confident in a pick that I've been more or less since the World Championships (where we also got roasted). I'm not going to sit here and bitch and moan about losing 15 units in embarassingly bad fashion but I did want to bring this up because we'll likely be using this as a topic on the cast next week. When do you change expectations vs stay the course? It's the billion dollar question right? We had this type of paradigm shift in the LCK last summer when we simply couldn't believe Griffin could actually be this good. Are we at that stage with the new rising teams in the LPL? Are the old dogs done? Obviously we don't want to overreact to a few brutal beats this season but at some point the question needs to be asked. Are we wrong, unlucky, or some combination of both? And if it is both then which has more weight? I'm not sure but we're going to talk a lot about it next week. 



LPL Spring 2019 - Quarterfinals:

After the absolute beating we've taken the past couple weeks in the LPL it's probably going to come as a surprise that I'm confidently going to fire on RNG here. After rewatching the WE/JDG series again I found that I didn't think the Team WE drafts were quite as egregious as I originally thought upon a second take except for game three. The Morgana pick doesn't work unless you have a lot of damage coming out of the jungle and top lane otherwise you end up with this 1.5 core situation that hasn't been relevant since Juggermaw. I actually admire JDG's willingness to keep it simple. Dive Mystic. That was the game plan and it worked. We even got to see the LvMao Fiddlesticks in game four!. I'll throw some respect on JDG for this one. Team WE looked like the better team and while I still think they were the right side I do regret betting them as heavily as I did. This should have been a light wager on Team WE. That was the correct move. Now.....

Enter RNG. A team that's looked really weirdly not themselves over the past few weeks. At times they've appeared to be "coasting to playoffs" even though they, by no means, had any sort of guarantee until the last week. Other time they looked as though they were flailing and panicking. Then Zzta1's return. There's just been a lot of weird momentum swings with RNG but historically this is a team that ALWAYS gets their shit together for playoffs. As a matter of fact in previous years they've come in similarly to this, with roster shuffles, ups and downs, and then they just seemingly turn it on in playoffs. Last year IG looked so much better than them the entire year except in the playoff series they played where RNG suddenly looked like the best team on the planet. 

So can RNG once again come up big in the clutch? I think yes. I do want to play devil's advocate a bit here. If you examine Team WE and RNG they're similarly constructed with strong carry players, an aggressive "firestarter" jungler, and role players otherwise. RNG have struggled at times this season with teams that just put a ton of pressure on Uzi partially because they leave him to his own device in some games and assume, correctly most times, that he'll play his way out of bad situations. I also think part of that is just lack of focus in regular season games. 

To me this series boils down to a couple of key angles:
  • RNG got to see how JDG handled a series against a fairly similar team to them in Team WE and will have the strategies and approach that JDG take in advance and can be prepared.
  • JDG have the right weapon for this job and are going to present problems for RNG
I was speaking with John George (@TheESportsPlug) about this and I made the comparison of JDG having scissors, the correct counter to RNG's paper.... but RNG's paper is more like carbon fiber or sheet metal or something. So are the scissors going to be enough here? 

I'm going with RNG -1.5 for six units (three units normal). If I got to see this before this morning I wouldn't have even hesitated. I don't want to put too much weight on "RNG always show up for playoffs" because, as we've seen this split, history doesn't mean jack sometimes. To me this series actually hinges more on Xiaohu and Karsa than it does Uzi. Uzi is going to receive his focus and this JDG team have more or less been playing the same way all split with varying degrees of consistency. With a sample size to scout and prepare for against a relevant opponent I'd expect the veterans on RNG and their coaching staff to be well prepared for this series. They also get side selection. Keep in mind that the further into playoffs we go the more of an edge information has when in the hands of good teams. We shouldn't ignore momentum, such as with JDG here, but information almost always triumphs.

"Gut": RNG -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -154 (6 units)


LEC Spring 2019 - Semifinals:

(lines taken down temporarily)

I fired earlier in the week on G2 -1.5 @ +100 for five units and I'll be sticking with that bet. We talked extensively about this one on the cast. G2 are in a very similar situation to RNG except they haven't seen a series in advance from Origen. I expect this series to play out similarly to how Fnatic/Splyce did this afternoon where it's competitive for two or three games but eventually the cream rises to the top. G2 have more or less been coasting for five weeks and who knows what kind of things they have cooked up for this series. If G2 are going to drop more than a game in this series it'll be because the ADC metagame doesn't favor Perkz that much AND he's shown the capability to be a weakness at times. I actually think he'll be the liability if this goes south for Origen but I don't think that's likely. 

It was said a lot on the post game shows for today's match but G2 just have so many unbelievable players and any one of them can steal a game on their own so it's very difficult to bet on any team but the most exceptional to make this a series. I have respect for Origen but they're not even the same species as G2 and I'm not going to shy away and hedge this bet just because we've been burned a few times this week. We're also getting plus odds on the -1.5 when I think, sincerely, that the most likely outcome in this series is a 3-0 or 3-1 (leaning 3-0). G2 are going to smash this series, likely in intimidating fashion.

"Gut": G2 -1.5 maps (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: G2 eSports -1.5 maps @ +100 (5 units)


NA LCS Spring 2019 - Semifinals:

(lines down temporarily)

Similarly to G2 I fired on Cloud 9 ML @ -110 earlier this week. On the cast we tried to figure out every which way we possibly could why on EARTH TSM were slight favorites (-118) in this series or why this was remotely close to even money. What we boiled it down to was that the elo algorithm that the books likely use saw that TSM have won six straight and have a 2-0 record against Liquid who are likely the top elo rating team based on this season while Cloud 9 have lost to Liquid twice and have only gone 4-2 in their last six. Does that sound like a stretch to anyone else? Look I think we all respect TSM and they could very well make this a competitive series but this line should be closer to -175 or more for Cloud 9. They've had playoffs clinched for awhile, started their challenger team, and TSM have been battling to avoid the cluster until the last week. 

I have Cloud 9 and Team Liquid a full tier better than TSM and TSM a full tier better than the rest of NA and yet they're favored here. Cloud 9 also get side selection. It's NA and we only get to see best of ones so the depth of strategies might not be there but Cloud 9 have looked better to me in every way and that's in no way any disrespect to TSM. Almost every metric is led by Cloud 9.  They have an absolutely absurd 1.13 damage per gold ratio which rivals Invictus' 1.19. Both teams have a surprisingly low ~41% ward clear percentage but that's about the only metric they're close in. Cloud 9 have also not had to show anything strategically in a couple weeks which is a huge edge.

This is one of the best value bets this year and it happens to be in a best of five and involving a team that's really really good in Cloud 9.  The metrics say Cloud 9, the strategic advantage goes to Cloud 9, the algorithm that puts these lines out is just dead wrong here just like it is for G2, and was for EDG. We sometimes lose those but we can't be afraid to bet the value where we see it unless we have good reason not to. In this case we have a ton of reasons that encourage us to. 

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

"Gut": Cloud 9 -1.5 (moderate)

Confidence: 5 / 5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 2.0 /1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -110 (5 units)

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Betting: April 5th (LCK Playoffs Round 2, LPL Quarterfinals, LEC Semifinals)

I usually amp up my stakes for the playoffs. I feel insanely good about this entire weekend and I'm going to be doubling my wagers as I usually do for playoffs (mostly for fun). I also think best of fives decrease variance a lot so I'm willing to go heavier on lines that would normally be out of range in best of one or best of three. This will be reflected in my total tallies for the year but I'd advise cutting my wagers in half for the playoffs if you're tailing me as the extra is mostly for the thrill.


LCK Spring 2019 - Playoffs Round 2:

We talked a lot about this matchup and how much respect we have for both of these teams on the podcast last night. The unanimous outcome we predicted was a 3-1 Kingzone victory for a few reasons. Kingzone have lost a single game in their last six matches including a 2-0 against DAMWON and a 2-0 against Griffin (although they had nothing to play for). Kingzone are the real deal people. Their only match losses this season have been to Griffin, SK Telecom 2x, Sandbox, and a weird one against Hanwha Life. Of their 13 wins all of them were 2-0 victories besides a 2-1 to Afreeca and a 2-1 to Gen.G. They aren't an impressive metrics team. They don't have ridiculously gawdy numbers to point to but they're towards the top in every category. Kingzone are just plain good and we all had them along or just behind SK Telecom behind Griffin. At this point you could honestly make a case for Kingzone being the second best team in the LCK. 

DAMWON are no slouches either. If not for an unbelievably good call by Sandbox in game two, DAMWON would have ran away with their Sylas/Akali split composition and this series would have been a 2-0 victory. To me DAMWON have an even higher ceiling than Kingzone do but Kingzone have just been so unbelievably consistent and versatile over the course of the season and across so many patches, something DAMWON can't claim.

I think DAMWON have a good chance to take a game in this series and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them take two if they come out guns blazing in this series. They have the individual players to potentially run away with any series against any team, including Griffin but I still have them and Sandbox a tier below Kingzone. I'm placing a light wager on the Kingzone -1.5 but you should shop for lines. I've seen this as low as -190 on some books. This should be a good, competitive series even if the game score ends up 3-1.

"Gut": Kingzone -1.5 (light)

Confidence: 3.0/5 (handicap), 4/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -112 (1 unit)


LPL Spring 2019 - Quarterfinal 2:

This is going to be my biggest game of the year.
Rough beats today as it turns out JDG were sandbagging hard and WE decided they'd try something completely new and stick with it even after getting whooped but anyway let's look at tomorrow's matchup....

We talked extensively about this one on the cast last night because I think for John, Kalvin, and I at least that this is going to be one of our biggest bets of the year. This line opened at -179 which is where I got in on it but I'm actually going to be adding on even at this number. Here's how this breaks down.

First of all, Haro is starting for EDG. To me this signals that EDG plan to play game one "in your face." What I mean by that is that Xiaopeng is an aggressive jungler that likes to be up in your face as often as possible disrupting you. ClearLove's primary champion pool (think Jarvan, Reksai, etc) struggle with this a lot more than Haro's more duelist/skirmish options. Haro tends to be quite good at this 1v1 counter jungling style as a matter of fact it was what he became known for. Picks like Khazix, Xin Zhao, and Camille were specialties for him. I'm a huge fan of ClearLove and he's been a huge strength for this team but I actually think this is a creative move by EDG. They get side selection in game one and if they can beat SinoDragon at their own game WITH Haro then SinoDragon are going to be completely demoralized. And having an experienced, studious ClearLove waiting in the wings to watch Xiaopeng's pathing is a huge edge for EDG even if they were to drop game one. Could this backfire? Yes. As a matter of fact in best of one and best of three I hate when teams do this type of power move but in a best of five you can psychologically end the series in game one with it. It's going to make drafting much more difficult for SinoDragon and gives EDG a huge edge in both the draft and from an overall strategic approach to the series.

EDG have a slight edge in most metrics but a rather sizeable one in damager per gold per minute which makes sense because their carries are significantly more efficient. SinoDragon are slightly better in securing first tower. We mentioned it on the cast but one of the really bizarre things to note about SinoDragon is that they've pretty much had exactly what champions they've wanted or consistently defaulted to certain picks when theirs were taken which could mean one of two things. Either they don't have that much depth or they're very one dimensional. EDG have this habit of shooting themselves in the foot when drafting which is my biggest reservation regarding this series but with how simplistic SDG's playstyle is EDG should be able to craft exactly what they want to, especially with side selection.

When you watch SinoDragon they're basically like a lesser version of FunPlus Phoenix (on the show I compared them to Diet Shasta Orange). They're not just a lesser version but a significantly lesser version. To give them their due, they are decisive, right or wrong, and good team fighters but they lack the individual talent to gain leads in lane phases and more or less have to hope their opponents mess up fights or take a fight they shouldn't. In a playoff series EDG aren't going to clown around in the draft (although I won't rule out botching one). They also aren't going to take every fight SDG attempt to start but here's the catch.... I think even if they do they can play out of it.

Perhaps the biggest factor to me in this series is that EDG can do everything SinoDragon does and more. If SinoDragon want to rough and tumble EDG can do that better. If it becomes a more disciplined, macro game EDG are going to tear this team apart. In other words EDG have the edge even playing SinoDragon's style. EDG also have the roster depth to potentially make drafts borderline impossible for SDG to win. They'll also have fresh brains to sub in if it comes to that while SDG's subs barely saw any time this season. 

I fired on this earlier this week and while researching more for it started to feel a bit less confident about it. I was talking myself out of this but after thinking about it more from a philosophical and strategic perspective I actually like EDG even more in this series. This is going to be my biggest wager of the year. I'm actually going to be a total of ten units on my plays for this game. Five each on the moneyline and EDG -1.5. I actually still think EDG 3-0 this series even with Haro starting. As I mentioned if they manage to take game one with Haro this series is over. EDG just hold all the cards here. SinoDragon are going to have to do something they haven't done all season which is completely reinvent themselves and if you consider how this team got into the playoffs, they've already pulled out all their stops while EDG have a ceiling as high as Invictus. We haven't even talked about the ridiculous value you're getting here. If you consider that the 3-0 is the most likely (or even the 3-1 if you think that's the most likely) to be getting plus odds on a significantly better team to do that is absolutely ridiculous. IF you got in when the ML was as los as -179 that's a bettable number too if you're a bit more skeptical. Everything about this screams EDG.


"Gut": EDG -1.5 (super heavy)

Confidence: 4.5 / 5 (handicap), 5 / 5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0.5 /1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +129 (5 units)

Moneyline: EDG -200 (10 units)


LEC Spring 2019 - Semifinal 1:

I think this series is roughly Fnatic 3 maps to Splyce 0.75 maps. What I mean by that is that I think If we played this best of five ten times Splyce get a game in most of them. The thing is we're only playing one best of five here so you need to make a judgement call on whether you think Splyce take a game in this series or not because unless your book offers the -1.5 (mine do not but places like BetWay do!) then you're basically forced to a decision here. I was originally going to fire on the Fnatic -2.5 at plus odds but I'm feeling a tad skeptical on it. I think if both of these teams play the way they "want" to play and not necessarily how they feel they need to play then Splyce can coin flip their way to a late game victory. We've talked a lot about how when both teams draft and play to scale that it shrinks the advantages you can gain. Splyce are very good at playing proactive defense and I could definitely see a game where either both teams draft for late or Fnatic draft for early and don't get a big enough lead. 

I don't want to overrate the "Splyce are unbeatable after X minutes" because frankly I think it's not only a stupid narrative but that teams haven't equipped themselves to battle Splyce late so of course they're going to win. Don't give too much credence to that mumbo jumbo! 

Fnatic are the better team here and while I depserately want to bet the 3-0 I actually do think Splyce are going to find at least one game through one of the scenarios we talked about (or Humanoid having rookie nerves). 

"Gut": Fnatic -2.5 maps (light)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Prop: Exact Fnatic 3-1 @ +208 (2 units)

Handicapped: Fnatic -2.5 @ +143 (1 unit)


Parlays and Specials:

Again tail at your own risk as these are really heavy handed but hey it's playoffs and I've actually done better on parlay betting this year than none and I actually think this slate is fairly chalky so maybe we collect bigtime here. I'm going to be mixing the iterations of most of these predicted outcomes. The smaller ones I think we have a real shot at collecting some value on these huge favorites if these slates end up a little weird or favorites end up punting an extra game than we think.

(Podcast Pick of the Week!) Parlay (2): Fnatic -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +139 (3 units)

Parlay (2): Fnatic ML + EDG ML @ -127 (3 units)

Parlay (3): Fnatic ML + EDG ML + Kingzone ML @ +152 (3 units)

Parlay (3): FNC ML + Kingzone ML + EDG -1.5 @ +236 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): FNC ML + KZ -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +340 (1 unit)

et al.... combining these -1.5 and ml iterations and some -2.5s

Parlay (4): FNC ML + Kingzone ML + EDG -1.5 + G2 -1.5 @ +571 (0.5 units)

et al...

Full Weekend Major Region Parlay (6):
FNC ML + Kingzone ML + EDG ML + G2 ML + C9 ML + Liquid ML @ +667 (1 unit)(call it a hunch little extra here!)

Full Weekend Major Region EXACTA Parlay (6):
FNC -2.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + G2 -1.5 + C9 ML + Liquid -2.5 @ +7132 (0.5 units)