March 22nd Recap:
LPL: 4 - 5 (-0.81 units)
LCS: 5 - 13 (-2.29 units)
TOTAL: 9 - 18 (-3.1 units)
I'll be on a different work shift this week (nights) so I'll likely be doing recaps and posts in the morning instead of the afternoon this week. We'll still be bringing you The Gold Card Podcast. I'll recap the LCS on this post when I home tomorrow morning.
Rogue Warriors managed to deal with more Victory Five shennanigans with no issue. It's good to see one of these middle of the table teams actually not get cheesed out. Usually bad to mediocre teams will drop a game here or there to a team like Victory Five but Rogue Warriors didn't.
Suning made a good adjustment after playing a game one cannonball comp (Jarvan+Galio) into a Kalista. Kalista love this sort of thing, she can stack up spears into the frontline and as soon as a damage dealer steps up burst two people. Suning had no way to deal with it in game one. Game two and three they drafted more balanced in a way that they wouldn't get completely blown out by one pick. This wasn't a good series by LGD but they were able to get game one for us. They're not a good team.This series wasn't close as Suning blew them out in games two and three.
FPX looked really sharp this morning. I can't even fault RNG for losing even if it did sting a little. Can't even be mad at that.
Evil Geniuses showing a controlled look was really interesting. They look good. Glad I hopped off the bandwagon as soon as they turned it around. (insert I find your lack of faith disturbing joke). TSM just lost really hard in draft. I understand trying to show new things but Diana against a comp like the one Immortals drafted seemed terrible. Maybe they wanted to set up a 1-3-1 but they just never did. FlyQuest similarly with the Ahri, like why? I know its a PoE special but come on. Props to 100 Thieves who played well, not flawless but well. C9 got really lucky they didn't lose to CLG in this spot but their ability to pull a rabbit out of a hat is very G2-esque.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 4 - Day 1
Dominus +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
TOP eSports -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
Dominus: Melody, Bless, Xiye, GALA, Mark
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
Invictus showed up to play against TOP. They kept it close in game two but Invictus showed why they're a clearly stronger team. Don't hold that series against this team. There's not a lot of advanced analysis I can do for this one. Dominus are terrible. They're at the bottom of the league with Victory Five. We're going to see Melody and Bless (not the Korean bless but the LDL Bless) for Dominus. Bless was decent against OMG who are a pretty good team. There's a chance this works out for them but Natural is the only plus player on this entire roster so it feels a bit weird to switch him out for your LDL top/jungle duo. I don't hate bringing in the duo though, especially if they have a lot of experience together.
TOP should destroy this team. 369, Karsa, and Knight against two non-starters and a washed up veteran in Xiye? I'll take that all day. GALA and Mark are also not the type of bottom lane to punish so Photic and QiuQiu should have an easier time than they've had in their last handful of matches against premium bottom lanes. Dominus' only victory this season was a 2-0 vs LGD. Not all that impressive. Their only other individual game win vs Vici. I will mention that Dominus have had a hard schedule facing only one "bad team" in LGD and they did win that one but they've struggled against similarly middle of the table teams like Team WE and Vici game to game.
You could make an argument for the Dominus +1.5 but I think TOP stomp this series. TOP did, in fact, lose to the similarly bad LGD but that was a weird series. I have to think that TOP are starting to finally see how busted Aphelios is. They haven't prioritized it all season and Photic's production and their win columns have suffered. I'm going to trust TOP to take care of business here.
TOP have won by 9 or more kills in all but 1 of their 6 game wins this season. Dominus have lost by 9 or fewer kills in 5 out of their 10 losses this season. I'm still going with the TOP spreads but reducing exposure.
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)
Prop: Map 1 TOP first to 5 kills @ -114 (0.114 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 TOP -7.5 @ -130 (0.13 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 TOP -8.5 @ -103 (0.103 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 TOP -9.5 @ +125 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 TOP -10.5 @ +157 (0.1 units)
Prop: Map 2 TOP first to 5 kills @ -114 (0.114 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 TOP -7.5 @ -130 (0.13 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 TOP -8.5 @ -104 (0.104 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 TOP -9.5 @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 TOP -10.5 @ +154 (0.1 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
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Vici Gaming +160 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
Edward Gaming -234 (-1.5 @ +123)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Maestro
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Forge has been absolutely terrible outside of a couple performances (like last match) as an LPL player. He's shown a clear lack of big picture understanding, doesn't seem to watch the map, and hasn't even shown a lot of flashy micro or individual ability either.
The other frustrating thing about this is that it makes this series a lot tought to bet. EDG shouldn't be favored by this much but this number is probably about right when you consider putting Forge into the equation. There's also the element of Forge losing game one and then Zeka coming back in. We're going to focus on EDG in game one. They looked a lot better and more proactive against a significantly better team in JDG.
Kill Spread: Map 1 EDG -5.5 kills @ +125 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 EDG -4.5 kills @ +104 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 EDG -3.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
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eStar Gaming +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
Invictus Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
IG: TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
Both of these teams play extremely bloody games. Invictus have an absurd 1.09 combined kills per minute this season. 35.0 combined kills per game.... that's ridiculous. eStar aren't far behind at 0.84 combined kills per minute and 30.4 combined kills per game. Both teams have similar economic stats but Invictus are dealing an insane 2485 damage per minute as a team. There isn't a team that's remotely close to that in any major region.
So the question with this one is whether or not you think Invictus respect eStar or not. Invictus tend to elevate and not screw around against teams they care about beating. Invictus are starting their World Championship top trio. My gut tells me that this is a big brother/little brother situation and Invictus smash. I still think eStar haven't been exposed and while I don't know if Invictus are the most well-equipped to expose them, I do think that if you want to play rough and tumble League of Legends, Invictus are the last team you want to do it against.
There is going to be a lot of kills in this game. Both of these teams are way too headstrong. I normally would love this spot for a contratian bet but honestly the totals are so high I'm just going to avoid them.
I may add to this later. Check back for updates.
Kill Spread: Map 1 IG -7.5 @ -101 (0.101 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 IG -8.5 @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 IG -9.5 @ +134 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 IG -7.5 @ -102 (0.102 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 IG -8.5 @ +114 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 IG -9.5 @ +133 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 IG -8.5 @ +114 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 IG -9.5 @ +133 (0.1 units)
Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
none for now
none for now
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