Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Betting: February 1st (LCK)

LCK February 1st Schedule (Week 3 Day 2):

KT Rolster (-278, -1.5 @ +104, M1 -217, M2 -222, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Jin Air Green Wings (+199, +1.5 @ -141, M1 +160, M2 +159, M3 +159)

MVP (+351, +1.5 @ +153, M1 -152, M2 -156, M3 -156)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
SK Telecom T1 (-556, -1.5 @ -147, M1 -370, M2 -370, M3 -370)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -278 (5 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 @ +104 (2 units)

We got the chance to see both Jin Air and KT play against the BBQ Olivers last week. KT dropped a game in a 2 - 1 series while Jin Air was defeated 2 - 0 but only one of the games was really close despite both being 40+ minutes in length. This KT team plays fast and dominates lanes which is how you get big enough leads against this Jin Air squad to run them over before they do GladPlane.jpg things. While I think Jin Air is a good team, they're not an elite team like KT is, at least most of the time. KT and Kingzone are your up tempo elite teams (SKT will join this eventually I believe), and to a lesser extent ROX on the lower tiers. These are the teams that are going to give this Jin Air team the biggest challenge from a stylistic standpoint. KT should be more heavily favored in this game if you ask me. I'm going to place a hefty wager on KT here. For as good as Teddy is he's not Deft and the rest of his team are severely outclassed in every position. This should be a 2 - 0 and cement KT, along with Kingzone and KSV in the elite tier top 3. It's about time KT turn up the heat and just stomp somebody like the other good teams have been doing this week.

Result: WIN (+6.8 units)

Result: WIN (+5.04 units)

Jin Air showed some ability to play up tempo with Grace on Taliyah and multiple dives in the first 8 minutes of the first game. This was a pretty competitive game, back and forth for the first 35 minutes or so but KT eventually came out on top because they were getting more out of the fights. Superior objective control and some disgustingly good Jax jungle play by Score were eventually just too much for Jin Air to handle. Game two got out of hand fairly early and KT were able to close like good teams do even against Zoe.

Moneyline: SK Telecom -556 (6 units)

Moneyline: SK Telecom -1.5 @ -147 (3 units)

Doesn't this just feel like a "get right" week for SK Telecom? They had this disasterous start and while I think this iteration of SKT is weaker than almost every previous one they're not as bad a team as they've shown. Faker hasn't been himself, Bang has been underwhelming and they can't seem to figure out this top side of the map situation but just in time, like a gift from the gods, MVP are rolling into town. Somehow this MVP team took massive steps back to me. Last season they were the chippy, synergistic squad without any true superstars but great teamwork, similar to Misfits. They had creative strategies, would take risks when necessary, and despite their lack of elite talent they found ways to get it done. That energy seems lost this season. I don't know what happened or if there was a coaching change that I don't know about or this patch has literally just dulled their sharpness but this team is probably the worst in LCK right now. The combination of player quality, underperformances recently by said quality players (looking at you Faker and Bang and even Untara), and the fact that this feels like a "get right" for a team that should be stronger than they've showed makes me want to wager a lot more on this game but the line is simply too rough. MVP is just what the doctor ordered for an SK Telecom team looking to regain some of it's confidence and, although I hate to invoke the name on Super Bowl week (GO EAGLES!), Faker is League's closest player comparison to Tom Brady. He goes into "FU Mode" after bad losses and performances on his part. Wouldn't surprise me if he just obliterates Ian to remind everyone who he is.

Result: LOSS 

Result: LOSS

Wow... So I've been holding the line, in a matter of speaking, for SKT since the beginning of the season. I've been insisting that it'll be rough for awhile but "they'll figure it out." I'm beginning to be skeptical of that. They can't possibly be this bad but I'm not willing to surrender that they're a definite playoff team by seasons end because with this roster I'm not so sure. Blank had a day he'd like to forget. Lost a couple of smite battles in game one (although this is 50/50 so we won't hold these against him) but more importantly he just had so many senseless deaths. I counted 4 borderline unforgiveable deaths across the 3 games including 2 in the pivotal game 3. I don't know what happened to this guy. He looked so good as a specialist last season and showed a lot of promise after having some time to learn but it just seems like he can't hang. He might be the worst jungler in LCK. 

So let's see if we can find a silver lining here. In game two SKT absolutely obliterated MVP despite a couple mistakes from Blank. I've been saying it all season but on these patches, it's extremely difficult to close games quickly and cleanly off of even a slight lead and SKT showed the ability to do that against a weaker MVP squad which is good news because SKT had previously shown absolutely no willingness to play quickly so that's promising I guess... 

What do I take from this? Well let's look at my reasons for the heavy bet on this selection:
1) "Get right" game for Faker and SKT
2) MVP is likely the worst team in LCK
3) SKT needs to start getting wins

4) Massive mid lane mismatch
5) MVP haven't even looked like their old selves and that team wasn't even good

You could argue the "get right" philosophy but the other reasons for this seemed sound to me so where did this go wrong? Was this really that drastic of an upset or does it just feel that way because I wagered a lot? I think the breakdown that was wisely brought up by a friend of mine (YO JIM) was that SKT isn't one of those elite teams even though this moneyline said they were. So the lesson here is to only be 350+ moneyline favorites if it's actually a good team and not a mediocre one that's struggling. This should have been a 4 unit/1.5 unit type of wager not a 6/3. I would have been closer to even on money for the day despite the upset if that was the case and it made a lot more sense to have this as a 2-4 unit wager because SKT hasn't shown it yet. I got too cute and too ahead of myself.

Tomorrows wagers should be up later this afternoon.


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Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Betting: January 31st (LCK)

LCK January 31st Schedule (Week 3 Day 2):

Kingzone DragonX (-435, -1.5 @ -137, M1 -294, M2 -294, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+307, +1.5 @ +106, M1 +204, M2 +204, M3 +204)

Afreeca Freecs (-200, -1.5 @ +128, M1 -167, M2 -167, M3 -167)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
BBQ Olivers (+145, +1.5 @ -167, M1 +122, M2 +122, M3 +122)

(UPDATE: Patch 8.1 not 8.2)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -435 (5 units)

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -137 (1.5 units)

I feel bad for the ROX Tigers this week. They've got to face Kingzone AND KT Rolster who are both top 4 teams and while I like this ROX lineup to be the "best of the rest" (AKA 7th place, the gatekeepers) they're just not up for this unless Kuzan plays, which might not happen, and can just go completely ballistic on something like Zoe. This ROX lineup is going to run into the same problem the BBQ Olivers did against these higher quality teams and that is that they are just outclassed in every position. The B tier LCK teams (BBQ and ROX) have an identity and can defeat the bad teams like MVP and Kongdoo and ocassionally a mid tier team with a flaw like SKT or Jin Air but they just can't measure up to the premium squads. Could an upset similar to KSV vs Kongdoo happen where the star players on the inferior team pull out a massive carry performance? Sure but I'm not going to rely on that. I'm willing to bet the win and I think the 2 - 0 has like an 80% chance of happening but I've been burned all last week going too hard on the 2 - 0 bets so I'll keep this to a limit where I'll cover the buy in for the -1.5 @ -137 bet and break even on a 2 - 1. Unlike other teams I'm not afraid of Kingzone playing slow and letting a team back into the game because they're a great team so I'm relatively confident in the 2 - 0 here.

Result: WIN (+6.15 units) KZ absolutely roflstomped these games including a BM Riven counterpick in game two.

Result: WIN (+2.595 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs  -200 (4 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ +128 (1.5 units)

Afreeca had a rough schedule last week having to face both Kingzone and KSV. Kingzone absolutely demolished them but the KSV series was interesting. Afreeca won a long, drawn out game one that had a total of 4 kills in a 47 minute game which show's their ability to utilize good macro play and disciplined use of Zoe. Game two was a 72 minute heartbreaker in which Afreeca led more or less until everybody was full build but simply could not close the game against the reigning world champs. This was the game where, with three inhibs down five players strong could not kill the exposed nexus leaving it at one health. After an ace with their nexus at one auto attack KSV pushed to win the game right then and there at 72 minutes. Now it'd be easy to say "Afreeca effectively 2 - 0'd KSV the other day if the nexus had just been auto'd by one person or a super minion" but they did, understandably, tilt the next game away in a 30 minute loss and in a matter of really 31 minutes went from 2 - 0'ing KSV to losing 2 - 1. Let's clear some things up. This Afreeca team is good, perhaps better than I anticipated and I was fairly high on them, but they're not quite an elite team. You need to be able to close a game like that out and while I think it was just a little bit unlucky they had 70 other minutes in that game to try to close. KSV defended admiarably and as one of the best defensive teams I've ever seen (coincidentally they remind me a lot of SKT and old Samsung Blue) I wasn't that surprised at the defense but COME ON! You gotta close that!! Regardless I think Afreeca are a cut above BBQ and this should be a stomping. You have to think the one thing they worked on all week was closing games out and BBQ have plenty of weaknesses for this strong lineup to expose. I'm maybe 70/30 in favor of the 2 - 0 here. This line seems way WAY out of whack to me which makes me want to go heavier on it but I'll keep this bet to 4 units simply because Afreeca are just barely on the cusp of being considered a "great" team to me so they are still relatively likely to randomly drop a series like this one. They're not quite there yet and this bet will leave me plus money on a 2 - 1 win or a 2 - 0.

Result: WIN (+6 units),  Afreeca's bot lane owned both these games to make short work of BBQ

Result: WIN (+3.42 units)


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Monday, January 29, 2018

Betting: January 30th (LCK)

LCK January 30th Schedule (Week 3 Day 1):

MVP (+347, +1.5 @ +128, M1 +239, M2 +239, M3 +239)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Kill Total 18.5)
KSV eSports (-556, -1.5 @ -175, M1 -357, M2 -357, M3 -357)

Kongdoo Monster (+131, +1.5 @ -250, M1 +110, M2 +111, M3 +111)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Kill Total 18.5)
Jin Air (-175,  -1.5 @ +175, M1 -152, M2 -149, M3 -149)

Moneyline: KSV eSports -556  (6 units)

Moneyline: KSV eSports -1.5 @ -175 (2 units)

I actually don't think Kongdoo's players are that much worse than Jin Air's but that KSV series easily could have turned into a game two win into a game three win instead of the flukey outplays that were strung together. For what it's worth I do think MVP are a cut lower than Kongdoo and BBQ and Rox but I would have guessed otherwise at the end of last year so who knows maybe MVP can recreate some of the magic but I doubt it. KSV just got embarassed and they're going to be on an absolute war path here. I feel kind of bad for MVP who could have maybe pulled an upset based on the classic "let down game" scenario but not after that loss this weekend. 

Result: WIN (+7.08 units)

Result: WIN (+3.14 units), Game one was a 28 minute dismantling but game two KSV were actually down kills 9 to 6 but were really in no threat of losing the game with a fed Trist and farmed Azir + frontline.

Moneyline: Jin Air Green Wings -175 (2 units)

Kongdoo showed the ability to play up tempo and dive focused against KSV in game one. When given the tools with the Galio + Jarvan + Vladimir combo they absolutely decimated. Game two was a loss until a couple of unbelievable plays by Edge on Zoe and Ssol on Ezreal. I think a team that wants to play for late game, similar to KSV by the way, could learn a lot by that upset victory and simply ban out or prepare for this strategy. So yes, Kongdoo look good but I do think the game two victory was a bit flukey in that it took some unbelievable plays to swing it and you can't count on that happening every week. I like Jin Air for a couple units here. They are coming off a tough loss of their own against BBQ but are also benefitting from something else that I think is worth mentioning. Unless something comes up, Patch 8.2 will be in tomorrow and while I expect it to slightly increase the tempo of games over time I don't think it will on the first day when teams are effectively playing with just scrim data. Usually it takes a few days of professional matches before teams really start adapting so this works in Jin Air's favor in two ways. First, Kongdoo and Jin Air both haven't had as much time as some other teams as they both played Saturday and Sunday so they'll likely both be playing similarly to how they were last week. Second, Jin Air's slow and steady style will still be the default "most effective" way to play until teams figure out all the nuances of this patch. For what it's worth I do think these teams are relatively closely matched but Jin Air is just slightly better. They also have the X-factor player in the matchup in Teddy. 

Result: WIN (+3.14 units), Snap back to reality ... jeez Jin Air stomped these games despite it taking forever, in typical Jin Air fashion. By game two they were playing with their food.

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Betting: Week In Review (January 22nd-28th)


Moneyline: Echo Fox +105 to defeat Cloud 9 (PICK OF THE MONTH)
Wager: 6 units

Payout: 12.3 units

First pick of the month was a slam dunk despite Cloud 9 showing an excellent game plan to deal with Huni, the predicted X-Factor. If there are matchups or special players that can absolutely force a matchup to be lopsided that deserves to be respected. This bet had momentum (Fox red hot, C9 still figuring it out), a severe mismatch (Licorice to Huni although this ended up not being a huge a deal due to game plan), and a massive misevaluation of the line (which moved from -112 to +105 for Echo Fox). On top of these three main reasons it also had yet another overperformer in Fenix for Echo Fox who has been better than I imagined he'd be this season (and I was relatively high on him). This is the kind of spot to lay a big wager founded in good logic and philosophy.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -103 to defeat 100 Thieves
Wager: 5 units
Payout: 9.85 units

If I can come up with really a really solid foundation for why a team is a strategic mismatch and it combines with my inclination on a team then I should stick with my gut. Where I get into trouble is just blindly trusting heavy favorites. This was a great example of breaking down exactly how and why C9 would get this done and why 100 Thieves was overperforming cooked into one bet.

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +114 to defeat CLG
Wager: 4 units
Payout: 8.56 units

This was good evaluation of previous matches and film review. If you actually watched the games and didn't just follow the record and results you would have known that CLG looks like a legitimately bad team while CG took care of business against a bad team in GG and happened to be unlucky enough to run into the early buzzsaw in Echo Fox which dropped the value of their stock. Febiven is the real deal and even in their Sunday night loss he was excellent on Ryze giving him back to back high level performances. It looks like the European superstar is in top notch form and will be a force going forward. This should be a top 4 or 5 team as long as Lira doesn't have anymore trainwreck performances like he did Sunday.

Moneyline: ROCCAT -116 to defeat Unicorns of Love
Wager: 2 units

Payout: 3.72 units

Maybe I should just bet against bad teams rather than bet on good teams. It sure as hell seems more reliable but the good thing to take away from this one is my evaluation of teams seems to be pretty spot on for the bad squads I just need to know when good teams might not have their edge that week.


Moneyline: KSV eSports -769, also -1.5 @ -175 to defeat Kongdoo Monster (2-0 with the 2nd bet)
Wager: 4 + 4 = 8 units
Payout: LOSS

This is definitely approaching the extremes of heavy moneyline favorite bets but I thought this was for sure a lock and that just goes to show you anything can happen. I thought Kongdoo is the second worst team in Korea and I still believe that but apparently the region is competitive enough to steal not just games but to SWEEP the top tier teams IN THE WORLD. This was just a bad beat but a reminder that you can lose these. Lucky it wasn't two awful beats by KSV in one week as they easily could have been 2-0'd by the Afreeca Freecs if their nexus got auto'd one more time.

Moneyline: Fnatic -222 to defeat Vitality
Wager: 4 units
Payout: LOSS

This Fnatic team has some soul searching to do. They're just like TSM has been in NA so far. WAY TOO PASSIVE. They get themselves into situations they shouldn't be in. I don't know if it's just learning, a bad patch, or what but I'm willing to stick with them for another week. If they look bad again I'm going to be coming off them. As it turns out Vitality are better than I thought although I still think they'll fall off. This was a case where trusting my gut got be burned but we'll see what another week shows before making any real drops in my personal ratings.

Moneyline: Jin Air -182 to defeat BBQ Olivers and -1.5 @ +163
Wager: 3 units + 1 unit
Payout: LOSS 

Unless I have a really strong inclination or reason to put more than 2 units on these closer matches I should limit bets to that and take small winnings instead of trying to look like a smartass. This one actually stung mostly because I literally caught myself trying to look smart and did it anyway. These teams are evenly matched despite playing two different styles and I thought Jin Air being more favored in the meta was enough to bet 3 units? That's weak.

Moneyline: OVER/UNDER Wagers on the LPL

I'm down 2.18 units just this week on the "trend" I thought I'd discovered (granted I missed multiple games by seconds). I'm going to come off these for the time being until I have more data.

Lesson Learned:

1) You can always lose... but once again don't shy away from big moneyline favorites:

This seems like the most classic tilt situation but my preseason and in season evaluation has been spot on for about 90% of the field I'm observing (NA, EU, and LCK) so why should I give up on that. It's the advantage I have over the books and to shy away from a few bad losses that I'm going to chalk up to bad luck would be faulty. KSV almost wrecked me twice this week but I'll probably be betting them next week. The same doesn't necessarily go for teams that have noticeably dropped off (maybe Fnatic).

2) Trust your film evaluation, your best bets have been based on it:

I rewatch a lot of games although I'll admit not all of them. I also catch a lot on the first view so when I make a strategic evaluation whether it be a team having a drastic draft advantage, a player mismatch, or the ability to exploit a certain matchup or style then I should trust myself on it. My best wagers from this week were based in sound matchup and strategic play. Don't go heavy without it.

3) Bad teams, Good teams, and Great teams:

Bad teams are reliably bad, good teams are usually good but sometimes bad, great teams exceed good level and rarely don't. Differentiate teams that are bad, good, and great. The West as a whole doesn't have a truly great team right now. The closest are Liquid and Echo Fox but I think they're just some consistency away from being great. The East has Kingzone, KSV, and KT (although I'd like a little more consistency). Great teams create their own opportunities proactively they don't respond to what is given to them, they take it. The lesson here is don't trust good teams as much as you trust great teams and don't be afraid to trust them just because of a fluke loss (lookin' at you KSV).

4) No Parlays of more than 3 teams and 0.2 units this week

I didn't los a lot on these but I'm going to restrict myself even more on them.

Week Two Roundup:
NA LCS: +11.91 units
EU LCS: --5.05 units
LCK: -3.835 units
LPL:  -1.998 units
Parlays/Combos: -1.378 units

TOTAL FOR THE WEEK: -0.351 units

Considering the bad beats we hit in Korea and EU this week we came out close to even which means I'm doing something right if I just clean up the anscilary stuff and figure out when to just abstain or go light.

Bets for tomorrows games, if any, will be up later tonight. 

Until next time...

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Saturday, January 27, 2018

Betting: January 27th (LCK / LPL / NA LCS)

LCK January 28th Schedule (Week 2 Day 5):
Jin Air (-182, -1.5 @ +163, M1 -143, M2 -139, M3 0139
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Kill Total 17.5)
BBQ Olivers (+142, +1.5 @ -227, M1 +105, M2 +107, M3 +107)

Kingzone DragonX (-769, -1.5 @ -175, M1 -333, M2 -303, M3 -303)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Kill Total 17.5)
MVP (+470, +1.5 @ +134, M1 +210, M2 +218, M3 +218)

Moneyline: Jin Air -182 (3 units)

Moneyline: Jin Air -1.5  @ +163 (1 unit)

Jin Air are an extremely predictable team but on Patch 8.1 there really isn't a lot you can do to stop the strategy that they're good at as we've learned from the ridiculous amount of upsets that have happened. Despite our ridiculous KSV 8 unit loss yesterday we were still up for the week by sticking to our guns. I think Jin Air and BBQ will end up close to each other in the standings but I do think Jin Air is a cut above BBQ and I think this meta is perfect for the way they like to play. I think this is like 75% chance to win and maybe 50% to be a 2-0 even if they're long games so I'm going to wager in a way that if this ends up 2-1 we're still up money.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -769 (8 units)

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -175 (2 units)

You could say I made this mistake yesterday but I'm not going to shy away from this. If lightning strikes twice then I guess I deserve it. If anything, Kingzone have even more reason to stomp MVP who I think is the worst team in LCK because it will move them into first place. Kingzone are going to be heavy favorites all week long as their Week 3 matchups are ROX and KM so I could totally see them being alone in first place come next week and being 6-0 in their next 3 matches. Unfortunately for us "money gets the money" as they say. This line is obscene but also accurate so I'm doubling down.

Result: WIN (+9.04 units)
Result: WIN (+3.14 units)

LPL January 28th Schedule (Week 2 Day 6):
Vici Gaming +282 
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 18.5)
Snake eSports -400

TopSports Gaming +560
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 18.5)
Invictus Gaming -1000

Oh My God! +263
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 18.5)
EDward Gaming -357

Moneyline: VG @ SS UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 1 unit)
Result: WIN WIN

Moneyline: TSG @ IG UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 2 units)


Moneyline: OMG @ EDG UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 1 unit)

(UPDATE: I'm putting another 0.5 units on each Map 1 and 2 of the TSG @ IG series. After some research I've seen that IG have the fastest game time of any team in any major region by a long shot and TSG are 0-8 in games this season with equally short times. TL:DR IG is stomping and TSG is getting stomped.)

This looks like three tremendously lopsided games and you know what we do with big LPL favorites. THE UNDER. Upping to 1 unit totals for these.

NA LCS January 28th Schedule (Week 2 Day 2):
Echo Fox -125 @ Team Solo Mid -101
Cloud 9 -103 @ 100 Thieves -122
OpTic Gaming -125 @ FlyQuest -101
Golden Guardians +173 @ Counter Logic Gaming -227
Team Liquid -250 @ Clutch Gaming +189

This Sunday slate is full of interesting and likely close games. I'm placing wagers on three of them. Echo Fox vs TSM feels like a TSM wake up moment to me but I'm not confident enough in it to wager at these lines and OpTic vs FlyQuest should be close but I'm not sure I like the values on it.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -103 (5 units)

100 Thieves have vastly outperformed my expectations of them but their victories have been against a weak OpTic team, a CLG that looks lost, and a longer 46 minute game that more or less became a coin flip against the stronger Team Liquid. They've shown excellent control but I really haven't seen anything that distinguishes this team. They're like the Jin Air of the NA LCS, they have their one strategy based around scaling and playing slow and steady and it's working for them but I think Jensen and Svenskeren can blow this game wide open. Another angle to this is that Licorice actually showed a great performance against Huni yesterday in a matchup I thought would for sure be exploited. Cloud 9 had a great game plan to minimize losses around the top half of the map and 100 Thieves will likely employ a similar strategy. I'm putting a lot of faith in my preseason evaluation here. Cloud 9 is an elite team that still hasn't reached their ceiling and with Licorice ahead of schedule I could see them challenging for a title. I can't imagine the same for 100 Thieves and at some point they're going to come back down to earth. I'm willing to "pay to see it" in this situation but I feel strongly that Cloud 9's combination of 4 superior players and the evidence that they're able to game plan against an elite top laner like Ssumday based on their success against Huni yesterday makes me really like the value of the line we're getting here. 100 Thieves should not be favored in this game just because Cloud 9 lost yesterday. Echo Fox is a significantly better team than 100 Thieves despite the records being similar.

Result: WIN (+9.85 units), Cloud 9 showed some excellent up-tempo Taliyah play trying to close a game out early and they were able to do so before 40 minutes. Licorice with another EXCELLENT performance on the counter pick against Ssumday. The kid is a beast.

Moneyline: CLG -227 (3 units)

You all know by now that I'm not a fan of this CLG squad but I think the Golden Guardians are in their own tier below the rest of the league and CLG absolutely needs this victory to keep up. They outclass every lane and I can't see them playing as poorly as they did yesterday in a massive throw.

Result: WIN (+4.32 units), CLG looked awful. They were down 4k to GG at one point in this game and if GG didn't have back to back to back tremendous throws they would have won this game. I know they act all calm and professional but this CLG squad is a complete dumpster fire. I'm glad we got to see this.

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +189 (2 units)

(UPDATE: I tacked another unit onto this after the "rough start" ballooned this line up to +308, losing first blood and an early flash isn't a huge deal and Febiven was roflstomping Pobelter and Solo was way up on Impact)

This game feels close to a 50/50 match to me. Both of these teams are great and this line shouldn't be this far apart. Typically in moneyline betting you simply want to pick the winner and the strength of wager is how you declare your confidence in the pick but I think this line is just too much of a value not to put a couple units on the coin flip for a handsome payout.

Result: LOSS, Lira had an uncharacteristic bad game and the Caitlyn lane didn't get going enough and their solo lanes being ahead wasn't enough.


Parlay (2): Jin Air -1.5 @ +163, Kingzone -1.5 @ -175 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (3): Jin Air -1.5 @ +163, Kingzone -1.5 @ -175, Invictus -1.5 @ -208 (0.5 unit)

With such huge favorites I'm willing to put a couple 2 and 3 part parlays down. I know I've been trying to avoid these but this is as close to surefire as you're going to get.


Parlay (3): CG +189, CLG -227, OpTic -109 (0.2 unit)


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Friday, January 26, 2018

Betting: January 26th (LCK / LPL / EU LCS / NA LCS)

LCK January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 5):
KSV eSports (-765, -1.5 @ -175)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+477, +1.5 @ +127)

Afreeca Freecs (-250, -1.5 @-127)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.6)
ROX Tigers (+188, +1.5 @ -175)

Moneyline: KSV eSports -769 (4 units)

Moneyline: KSV eSports -1.5 @ -175 (2 units)

(UPDATE: I'm upping the -1.5 @ -175 to 4 units as well. I just can't see KSV dropping a game to this Kongdoo squad even in this current metagame)

This should be an absolute stomping so I'm going to place a 4 units on the moneyline and 2 more on the 2-0. KSV is one of the top two and Kongdoo is one of the bottom two and in best of 3's I'm more resilient to the best of one heavy favorite upset.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS, Kongdoo with the 2 - 0 makes you realize nothing makes sense and sports betting is really really difficult. There are no words...

NA LCS January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 1):
Clutch Gaming +114 @ CLG -152
Team Solo Mid -213 @ OpTic Gaming +157
Cloud 9 -118 @ Echo Fox -112
100 Thieves +122 @ Team Liquid -167
Golden Guardians +129 @ FlyQuest -172

This NA LCS Week 2 slate is JUICY! 

Moneyline: TSM -213 (4 units)

Once against sticking to my guns on heavy favorites. Good teams figure out their problems and I think in this specific situation the player quality differential is just too big. I got absolutely torched last weekend and in EU LCS yesterday by losing big favorites but even in this best of one format that I can't stand these good squads need to start winning eventually. TSM's problems have been draft issues more than anything else to me. When you have a bad setup you're forced to make suboptimal decisions and when a team is still learning each other there isn't that automatic chemistry to play your way out of a bad situation. I think TSM makes the proper adjustments and gets the train rolling against an overrated 100 Thieves team. 

Result: WIN (+5.88 units)

Moneyline: Team Liquid -167 (4 units)

I have no idea why Liquid vs 100 Thieves is a closer spread than TSM vs OpTic simply based on what we've seen. I had TL and TSM two and one in My Preseason Predictions and OpTic and 100 Thieves next to each other at seven and eight. TSM had a slow start and Liquid looks excellent. It's probably because 100 Thieves are overrated as I mentioned in that post as well. They beat two bad teams on the way to their 2-0. They haven't been tested yet. This seems like easy money to me and I really want to make this a heavier wager but I'll keep it to 4 units and maybe update tomorrow before the games.

Result: LOSS

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +114 (4 units)

Clutch took care of business against a bad Golden Guardians team but unfortunately ran into the buzzsaw that is Echo Fox right now. CLG had losses to C9 and 100 Thieves. This is a defining moment for CLG. They need to win this game. I might be underplaying the psychological part of this matchup. Clutch could be looking forward to their match against Liquid on Sunday or they could have focused a lot more attention on this one to secure the win. CLG is either entirely focused on this match and assuming they'll beat GG or, because of their rough start, are treating both equally. Ultimately I think it's more about team build and preparation. As I've said I think this CLG team is tremendously overrated going into this season and while I think they're more than likely a playoff team I don't think they're better than the other five at the top to beat them consistently. I'm also going to start this one at 4 units but check back tomorrow for an update.

Result: WIN (+8.56 units)

Moneyline:  Echo Fox +105 (6 unit January Pick of the Month)
(UPDATE: This line has moved from C9 -118 @ EF -112 to C9 -135 @ EF +105)

I was already going to make this a 4 unit wager but I'm upping it to 6 and making it my January Pick of the Month. Echo Fox are not only red hot right now but present a matchup nightmare in Huni vs rookie top laner Licorice. That was enough of a disparity for me to make this a 3 unit wager on it's own. I'm also factoring in that Fenix has looked excellent so far and could perhaps nullify Jensen or at least not be a liability. If Fenix had not impressed me so much I'd probably just leave it at 3 based on the Huni and eye test factors but I like how Fenix has looked. To me these two teams are evenly matched squads but this is perhaps the worst matchup for Cloud 9 strategically in the entire league and the timing is definitely not in their favor either. Enter a line swing from -112 to +105 for Echo Fox in a market that rarely has line movement. People are pounding Cloud 9 OR the oddsmakers seem to like Cloud 9 and I just think they're dead wrong. I'll collect my value all the way to the bank on this one.

Result: WIN (+6.3 units), This didn't go quite as cleanly as I hoped as C9 laid out a good plan to deal with the top centric strategy but ultimately great players made great plays to close this one out.

EU LCS January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 2):
H2K +127 @ Giants -161
Unicorns of Love -115 @ ROCCAT -111
Team Vitality +124 @ Misfits -159
Splyce +110 @ Schalke 04 -152
Fnatic -152 @ G2 eSports +114

(UPDATE: Adding a wager on Schalke 04 at -167 vs Splyce

Moneyline:  Schalke 04 -167 (4 units)

Schalke looks like the real deal and maybe the best team in EU and with a chance to take over first place and Splyce looking completely lost I'm going to place a healthy 4 unit wager on Schalke to take this game down.

Result: LOSS

Moneyline:  Giants -161 (2 units)

I know H2k pulled the upset last week but I think that was more a matter of their opponents sleeping through that match. Call it narrative based or whatever but I really don't think this is a good team. Giants on the other hand are proving that they're ahead of schedule. In my preseason predictions I talked about how I thought this Giants team had the most upside of the bottom teams and it turns out they're delivering on that. Ruin is absolutely demolishing everyone and it's not close. He's taking over games from the top lane in much the same manner the Huni was in week one in the NA LCS and they're playing around it well. The guy is a monster and I don't think SmittyJ and Santorin are up for the task.

Result: WIN (+3.24 units)

Moneyline:  ROCCAT -116 (2 units)

During the post game show they interviewd Kold (Trashy) from UoL and he admitted to the team "not gelling yet" and that he was focused more on playing fun picks with his new approach to non-burning out and that his new philosophy aligned well with what UoL wanted... does anybody else read this as "I'm trying to win but not doing everything in my power to win" because I do. Look I get that you gotta keep your mind right and that can definitely pay dividends but in the moment I'm not touching this UoL team and I think I might even take H2k over them. Their best player just tried to fire off Kayn in a zero engage composition yesterday and justified it afterwards. I hope the best for Trashy and I thank him for his honesty hopefully leading us to a bunch of money.

Result: WIN (+3.72 units)

LPL January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 5):
FunPlus Phoenix +245 
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 20.5)
Team WE -333

Rogue Warriors -263
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 19.5)
LGD Gaming +197

JD Gaming +194
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 19.5)
Royal Never GiveUp -256

Moneyline: FPP @ WE UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 unit)

Moneyline: RW @ LGD UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 unit)

Moneyline: RNG @ JDG UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 unit)

Going to keep our estimation of a trend going. If this stays this way I may end up moving these up to total one unit or more plays weekly.

Result: LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS LOSS (total: -0.57)

Preaseaon Predictions Articles can be found here:

Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (1/21)!!