KT Rolster (-278, -1.5 @ +104, M1 -217, M2 -222, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Jin Air Green Wings (+199, +1.5 @ -141, M1 +160, M2 +159, M3 +159)
MVP (+351, +1.5 @ +153, M1 -152, M2 -156, M3 -156)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
SK Telecom T1 (-556, -1.5 @ -147, M1 -370, M2 -370, M3 -370)
Moneyline: KT Rolster -278 (5 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 @ +104 (2 units)
We got the chance to see both Jin Air and KT play against the BBQ Olivers last week. KT dropped a game in a 2 - 1 series while Jin Air was defeated 2 - 0 but only one of the games was really close despite both being 40+ minutes in length. This KT team plays fast and dominates lanes which is how you get big enough leads against this Jin Air squad to run them over before they do GladPlane.jpg things. While I think Jin Air is a good team, they're not an elite team like KT is, at least most of the time. KT and Kingzone are your up tempo elite teams (SKT will join this eventually I believe), and to a lesser extent ROX on the lower tiers. These are the teams that are going to give this Jin Air team the biggest challenge from a stylistic standpoint. KT should be more heavily favored in this game if you ask me. I'm going to place a hefty wager on KT here. For as good as Teddy is he's not Deft and the rest of his team are severely outclassed in every position. This should be a 2 - 0 and cement KT, along with Kingzone and KSV in the elite tier top 3. It's about time KT turn up the heat and just stomp somebody like the other good teams have been doing this week.
Result: WIN (+6.8 units)
Result: WIN (+5.04 units)
Jin Air showed some ability to play up tempo with Grace on Taliyah and multiple dives in the first 8 minutes of the first game. This was a pretty competitive game, back and forth for the first 35 minutes or so but KT eventually came out on top because they were getting more out of the fights. Superior objective control and some disgustingly good Jax jungle play by Score were eventually just too much for Jin Air to handle. Game two got out of hand fairly early and KT were able to close like good teams do even against Zoe.
Moneyline: SK Telecom -556 (6 units)
Moneyline: SK Telecom -1.5 @ -147 (3 units)
Doesn't this just feel like a "get right" week for SK Telecom? They had this disasterous start and while I think this iteration of SKT is weaker than almost every previous one they're not as bad a team as they've shown. Faker hasn't been himself, Bang has been underwhelming and they can't seem to figure out this top side of the map situation but just in time, like a gift from the gods, MVP are rolling into town. Somehow this MVP team took massive steps back to me. Last season they were the chippy, synergistic squad without any true superstars but great teamwork, similar to Misfits. They had creative strategies, would take risks when necessary, and despite their lack of elite talent they found ways to get it done. That energy seems lost this season. I don't know what happened or if there was a coaching change that I don't know about or this patch has literally just dulled their sharpness but this team is probably the worst in LCK right now. The combination of player quality, underperformances recently by said quality players (looking at you Faker and Bang and even Untara), and the fact that this feels like a "get right" for a team that should be stronger than they've showed makes me want to wager a lot more on this game but the line is simply too rough. MVP is just what the doctor ordered for an SK Telecom team looking to regain some of it's confidence and, although I hate to invoke the name on Super Bowl week (GO EAGLES!), Faker is League's closest player comparison to Tom Brady. He goes into "FU Mode" after bad losses and performances on his part. Wouldn't surprise me if he just obliterates Ian to remind everyone who he is.
Wow... So I've been holding the line, in a matter of speaking, for SKT since the beginning of the season. I've been insisting that it'll be rough for awhile but "they'll figure it out." I'm beginning to be skeptical of that. They can't possibly be this bad but I'm not willing to surrender that they're a definite playoff team by seasons end because with this roster I'm not so sure. Blank had a day he'd like to forget. Lost a couple of smite battles in game one (although this is 50/50 so we won't hold these against him) but more importantly he just had so many senseless deaths. I counted 4 borderline unforgiveable deaths across the 3 games including 2 in the pivotal game 3. I don't know what happened to this guy. He looked so good as a specialist last season and showed a lot of promise after having some time to learn but it just seems like he can't hang. He might be the worst jungler in LCK.
So let's see if we can find a silver lining here. In game two SKT absolutely obliterated MVP despite a couple mistakes from Blank. I've been saying it all season but on these patches, it's extremely difficult to close games quickly and cleanly off of even a slight lead and SKT showed the ability to do that against a weaker MVP squad which is good news because SKT had previously shown absolutely no willingness to play quickly so that's promising I guess...
What do I take from this? Well let's look at my reasons for the heavy bet on this selection:
1) "Get right" game for Faker and SKT
2) MVP is likely the worst team in LCK
3) SKT needs to start getting wins
4) Massive mid lane mismatch
5) MVP haven't even looked like their old selves and that team wasn't even good
You could argue the "get right" philosophy but the other reasons for this seemed sound to me so where did this go wrong? Was this really that drastic of an upset or does it just feel that way because I wagered a lot? I think the breakdown that was wisely brought up by a friend of mine (YO JIM) was that SKT isn't one of those elite teams even though this moneyline said they were. So the lesson here is to only be 350+ moneyline favorites if it's actually a good team and not a mediocre one that's struggling. This should have been a 4 unit/1.5 unit type of wager not a 6/3. I would have been closer to even on money for the day despite the upset if that was the case and it made a lot more sense to have this as a 2-4 unit wager because SKT hasn't shown it yet. I got too cute and too ahead of myself.
Tomorrows wagers should be up later this afternoon.
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