Tuesday, March 3, 2020

March 4th: LCK

March 2nd Recap:


LCS: 0 - 1 (-1.0 units)

Parlays: 0 - 1 (-0.5 units)


TOTAL: 0 - 2 (-1.5 units)



Dignitas looked like they were going to be able to match Cloud 9's pace in this game but then made a fatal mistake trading the 3rd drake (their 1st) while Cloud 9 intelligently used herald mid to take both mid towers. From there they blew the game open. I wasn't a huge fan of the Dig draft. Froggen's Anivia is always a pleasure to see and it's a good matchup into Cassio both in and out of lane because you can deny her a lot of damage by just walling her out of fights. Cloud 9 are just too fast paced. You can't make errors against this team. I think eventually they might get solved or at least partially figured out but for the time being I don't think anybody besides maybe Liquid is going to be able to keep up with them consistently.

This game turned into a back and forth clown fiesta after looking innocent enough to start off. I actually liked Immortals draft in this spot quite a bit but an early roam top to make it a 3v2 while Pobelter was still just farming mid was the early turning point in this game as Immortals were then able to secure a dragon for free and get the snowball rolling. There were a lot of disjointed fights in this game by both teams. Weird positioning, indecisiveness, and what looked to me like a lot of miscommunication or lack of communication. There was also this strange attempt at a quick end by CLG that didn't end up working out. From there, Immortals stabalized and ended up on the winning side.  Make no mistake, Immortals won this game because they made fewer mistakes but this certainly wasn't one for the highlight reel. 

Unfortunately it was announced that, following the end of the first round robin this Friday March 6th, the LCK will be going on an indefinite hiatus due to the continued spread of the coronavirus. It's really sad news but we need to keep the safety of everyone in mind. My guess is that they'll take a week or so to assess the situation and then move to an online stream similar to what the LPL plans on doing. We'll see what happens.
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LCK (Korea)

Week 5 - Day 1

DAMWON +1197 (+1.5 @ -167)
vs
DragonX -287 (-1.5 @ +118)

Trends:
DAMWON are 0 - 3 straight up as underdogs
DAMWON are 2 - 1 against the spread as underdogs (Afreeca and T1)
DAMWON have gone to three games in 4 out of 8 series this season

DragonX are 6 - 1 straight up as favorites
DragonX are 3 - 4 against the spread as underdogs (T1, AF, SB, KT are the non-covers)
DragonX have gone to three games in 5 out of 8 series this season

Tale of the Tape:
DAMWON:
0.99 damage per gold, 50% first blood, 40% first tower
46.5% of wards cleared, 3.7 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +146,  CS @ 15: +17.2

DragonX:
1.06 damage per gold, 24% first blood, 67% first tower
45.5% of wards cleared, 3.6 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +1375, CS @ 15: +40.1

This is a fascinating series to me. I'm going to take a look at this from the angle of Griffin vs DAMWON from last year and then mix in some current form and the new rosters. The reason for this is because DragonX have both Griffin solo laners as well as cvMax as the coach. DragonX also look to be playing the exact same style that Griffin did last season so I think it's an appropriate comparison.

Last Summer Griffin and DAMWON split the season series with a 2-0 win for each side. In the Spring, Griffin 2-0'd both sets. I haven't been referencing previous season records that much but given the similarities I'm seeing in DragonX and last years' Griffin I think it should be noted. Last years' metagame was significantly better for DAMWON than the current one. Stylistically this is a really bad matchup for DAMWON. DragonX are a very disciplined team and DAMWON are a team that's prone to a lot of mistakes. This is also a tough individual matchup from player to player. A lot of people love Nuguri but he's way too overaggressive and his champion pool isn't great on this patch. Doran should be able to handle him. DAMWON have won maybe one game this season where Nuguri wasn't the reason. I think you can put two and two together here.

DragonX are exactly the kind of team DAMWON hate facing. They're intelligent and disciplined. They won't scrap with you for no reason and they punish mistakes like a team that's been together for much longer than they have. TL:DR they're really well-coached. I also think that DragonX have significant advantages at every single position besides top lane as evidenced by the differential stats given the lack of consistent first bloods by DRX. They get so much done without kills, if they ever consistently start getting more gold besides first tower they're going to be even more dominant.

We've seen what happens when DAMWON aren't carried by Nuguri, they lose. DAMWON are always a team that can get hot on a given day and just go ballistic so it always feels a bit weird betting against that but they're given me very little to be confident about right now. The meta is bad, they're really clumsy in a game that's extremely punishing to even a single mistake, and they're playing against a team that's going to punish efficiently and force errors out of them. They're also outclassed significantly on an individual level and facing a coach that's 3-1 (6-2 games) in his last three series against this team with a similar style and roster and in a metagame that's better for that style.

We're actually going somewhat against trends and taking DragonX to sweep this. This shouldn't be a plus number, even a small one. The value is on the DragonX -1.5 maps even in this current underdog favored iteration of League of Legends. DragonX have been a significantly better team than their record shows and DAMWON are a slightly worse team than their record shows. This is a stylistically terrible matchup for DAMWON.


Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ +123 (1 unit) 


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APK Prince +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
Hanwha Life -369 (-1.5 @ -113)

Trends:
APK Prince are 1 - 7 straight up as underdogs (win vs KT)
APK Prince are 3 - 5 against the spread as underdogs (covers vs KT, GRF, AF)
APK Prince have gone to three games in 2 out of 8 series

Hanwha Life are 1 - 1 as favorites (win vs Griffin)
Hanwha Life are 0 - 2 against the spread as underdogs (losses to KT and GRF)
Hanwha Life have gone to three games in 4 out of 8 series

Tale of the Tape:
APK Prince:
1.07 damage per gold, 50% first blood, 61% first tower
45.1% of wards cleared, 4.2 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: -1405,  CS @ 15: -24.7

Hanwha Life:
0.96 damage per gold, 40% first blood, 45% first tower
41.7% of wards cleared, 3.6 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: -1330, CS @ 15: -24.8

As weird as it is to say it, this series is appropriately handicapped. If you look at the measurables these teams look awfully similar. APK Prince weirdly still have the highest wards per minute and second highest damage per gold in the league but when you factor in that they're behind and that they have a handful of Illaoi games to buff the damage numbers and their economy stats are garbage, you can see the numbers are inflated. As a team, Hanwha have 98 more gold per minute and have taken games over superior competition than APK.

I'm just going to tell it straight here. I think I've been incapable of identifying just how poor Ikssu is when he's not on his main champions. We saw an embarrassing Zilean top performance as an attempted counter to tanks. As a Zilean second-trick (my second main for years), he did so much wrong in that game that I honestly questioned his professional player status. Missed bomb combos, lack of understanding on optimal or even acceptable build, etc. He also looked terrible on Sett, and on Ornn and Soraka in the previous series. Keine has also not been an LCK caliber player this season. Now, admittedly, APK have faced the dominant Gen.G and DragonX in their last two series but these signs are alarming. APK haven't shown any signs of life since teams figured out to just ban Illaoi and isolate the top lane. Nobody else on this team is capable of handling anyone else straight up in the LCK.

It sounds weird to say but I actually think this number is correct and that Hanwha, for all the problems they have, are rightfully favored by this much. The KT win was almost entirely on KT severely botching both drafts and losing before the games were even started and even then APK almost lost. APK also don't know what to do with leads once they get them.

It's really tough to imagine APK even taking a game here. Their individuals, outside of Flawless and Secret, are severely outclassed. I was wrong to think this team could hang they're probably going to take one or two game wins the rest of the split. They might not be as bad as Jin Air but this isn't a good team by any means and I think as the meta gets figured out by better teams they aren't going to have the "automatic" draft wins that we saw earlier in the season.

Spread: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)


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Parlays:

Parlay (2): DragonX ML + Hanwha ML @ -127 (1 unit)(5Dimes)

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