Thursday, August 30, 2018

Betting: August 30th (EU LCS Playoffs)

Hasn't been a whole lot of action with LCK, the Asian Games being too lopsided and keeping the LPL quiet, and other regions in playoffs. I've also been nursing a core injury, some kind of weird abdominal strain that we still haven't quite figured out so I've been unable to sit up for extended time to type besides on my phone. Because of this I've been sticking mostly to Twitter. Anyway here's hoping that gets figured out and I can get back on my ... ass? soon enough.

EU LCS Playoff Schedule 8/30:


FC Schalke 04 (+156, +1.5 @ -135)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 21.5
Team Vitality (-204, -1.5 @ +104)


Moneyline: Team Vitality -204 (3 units)

Handicapped: Team Vitality -1.5 maps @ +125 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -114 (1 unit)


You all know how much it pains me to do this. I'm the Vitality hater and the Schalke truther. All last season that was my storyline and for most of this season it was too but to me Vitality have shown the ability to do two things extraordinarily well; smash early games and have excellent draft preparation. There I said it. I actually gave Yamato some credit because this is the first squad of his that hasn't self destructed by split two with him. Usually his teams trend downward after the first split, they get figured out easily.

Anyway I like Vitality here mostly because this is a stylistic nightmare for Schalke. Schalke have turned into the EU verson of last splits Clutch Gaming. They're very good at 2-core, scaling team compositions when they're allowed to get there but haven't exactly shown the best defensive ability and will often get run over.

These two teams met three times in the regular split because of an extra tiebreaker match. The regular season series was split 1-1 with Vitality stomping in a 30 minute game in which Schalke didn't even take a tower in the first game, a long 43 minute slugfest in the second game that S04 won, and Vitality winning a long 43 minute game in the tiebreaker. If we look to last weeks playoff series S04 had a comeback 3-2 victory over Splyce. Both teams played traditional 2-core compositions and tried to scale. The only short game in the series was the 32:33 victory for Splyce in a game three that really got away from S04.

So to me Schalke have shown themselves to be a good team when able to play 2-core compositions but I just don't think Vitality are going to let that happen. They're simply too good at playing uptempo. Splyce are the other slowplaying team in the EU LCS and Schalke didn't even try to abuse that in their drafts against them opting instead for close, scaling games. Splyce even jumped out and ran them over in game three. I don't want to put too much stock into one game but I just look at this series at Vitality completely running over Schalke every game and maybe in one of those games they botch their lead and can't close the game. As an added bonus Vitality also have side selection for the series. This series looks like a 3-1 Vitality win to me and I'd lean closer to the 3-0 than the 3-2. Taking the UNDER 35:00 in the first two games as well. I think Game three Schalke might put up a fight.


Saturday, August 18, 2018

Betting: August 19th (LPL, EU LCS Tiebreak, NA LCS)



LOL Pro League (China) 8/19 Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-500, -1.5 @ -139)

@ Total Time ???, Total Kills ???
Vici Gaming (+343, +1.5 @ +103)


Snake eSports (-213, -1.5 @ +145)
@ Total Time ???, Total Kills ???
OMG (+162, +1.5 @ -192)


I've been getting utterly destroyed on handicaps from a win-loss record standpoint but a lot of these bets have been small bets attempting to attack line value when the moneylines have often been borderline unplayable to me.


Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 @ -139 (6 units) 

Invictus are starting their owner at ADC this match. I legit think they'll still 2-0 this. I tried to write this under the assumption that he wasn't playing just as an excercise and came up with this

"The only thing I'm "missing" here is that Invictus might not care about this game and Vici could look at it as a way to "go out with a bang." People are gonna hate this pick because "Invictus have been dropping games every series." This is true, they've dropped a game in seven of their last nine series but they also smashed BiliBili and RNG 2-0. They've only dropped one game to the bottom two (Team WE and Vici). Invictus 2-0'd Vici back in week two in under 57 total minutes and I actually expect the same thing here. I played this in a parlay as early as yesterday and the line then was -1.5 @ -179. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth here. I think Invictus destroy this series to end the season on a good note, perhaps might even show a new pick to bait bans for playoffs and plant the seed of doubt. The lineup doesn't matter to me, any iteration should 2-0 this. I have no idea why this line is this low, probably because people are afraid of the trend of Invictus dropping games within series but let's keep in mind they've been playing against teams that are still fighting for playoff spots and the only team quite as bad as Vici that they've faced is Team WE (who admittedly did take a map). 
I'm not going to look this gift horse in the mouth."

I'm going to roll with this still not just because it's hilarious but because I honestly wouldn't rule out that he paid Vici under the table to let him win (this is China after all). Also who wouldn't want to impress the boss man so he buys you a new car or some bling? LET IT RIDE


-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Handicapped: Snake eSports -1.5 @ +145 (3 units)

With their loss to EDG, OMG are eliminated from playoff contention but Snake are still alive. OMG are at least a competitive team and they've even stolen a few game wins from some good teams like Rogue Warriors, Invictus, and Suning but they're ultimately not that great. To me they're a clear cut above the true bottom dwellers of the LPL and they have some good players they just haven't been able to put it all together. Snake have lost five in a row but in those five losses they took games off of RNG and IG. Prior to this loss streak they convincingly 2-0'd Vici and LGD, teams that are a little above and a little below OMG's level. 

Snake are in a must win situation and they actually have a good shot at taking the #4 seed away from FunPlus. With two matches left (vs RW and EDG) the best FunPlus can end is 9-10 if they win both. Snake have five matches remaining (vs OMG, RW, TSG, WE, and EDG) meaning the best they can end is 11-8. Is is likely? Not really considering EDG and TSG are going to be battling until the very last match for the #2 seed but if one of them pulls ahead then it could happen, hell TSG could lose out and Snake could even end up as high as the #2 seed if they can take down TSG and EDG. 

I know narrative isn't everything and I've been leaning on "must win" situations a lot lately but that's the end of the season and I think this Snake team are much much better than they've shown this season. OMG aren't a good team and Snake, while not as good as people anticipated going into the season, are still a decent team with some gamebreaking players. I'm actually expecting Snake to 2-0 this with a moderate amount of confidence. 

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EU LCS Tiebreakers (Europe) 8/19 Schedule:


(pending)


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NA LCS (North America) 8/19 Schedule:

(pending)



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PARLAYS:


Parlay (2): Invictus -1.5 @ -179 + Snake -213, Total Odds: +129 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Invictus -1.5 @ -139 + Snake -1.5 @ +145, Total Odds: +321 (1 unit)





Friday, August 17, 2018

Betting: August 18th (LCK Playoffs Rd 3, LPL, EU LCS, NA LCS)


LCK Summer Playoffs Rd 3 8/18 Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-114, -1.5 @ +184)
@ (Total Time 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Griffin (-109, +1.5 @ -250)


DISCLAIMER: I'm doubling my unit count for the rest of the LCK season both as a statement of confidence and, to be honest, some more fun having a bigger stake in the games. I'd caution against tailing at these numbers. Cut them in half unless you're as confident as I am. So 5u = 2.5u normal bet etc




Moneyline: Griffin -109  (4 units)

PROP: Exact Griffin 3-2 @ +393 (0.25 units)

PROP: Exact Griffin 3-0 @ +493 (0.25 units)


Talked a lot about this matchup with the /r/sportsbook crowd on the Discord server. To me this is an actual pick 'em. There are plenty of reasons to like both sides of this game so what I'll do here is go over the "pro's" of each side to allow people to make their own decision on this and then I'll explain mine.


Pro Afreeca Side:


  • Experience, momentum - Afreeca are "coming in hot" after demolishing two of the top four teams in the LCK and have players with big game experience unlike the rookies on Griffin.
  • Kiin is a monster - Pretty hard to disagree with this. He's definitely the person to break ties in favor of right now (a la Faker). He's going to create havoc in the draft for Griffin and earn Afreeca a lot of advantages there. His Ryze and how Griffin choose to handle it will be the most impactful pre-game champion in the series.
  • The meta has shifted to one that favors Afreeca - They've shown a mastery of 1-3-1 and vision exploitation (always in the meta). Kuro and Kiin have close to optimal champion pools for the current patch.
  • Even Kramer is playing really well - What can I say, he has been excellent and taking advantage of every mistake his opponents have made


Pro Griffin Side:

  • Hungry, motivated - Similar to the "coming in hot" and experienced narrative except sort of the opposite
  • They've seen two series of mistakes from enemy teams and ideas from Afreeca - With Afreeca showing two very different ideas against two very different attempts to beat them Griffin have more information to work with about how Afreeca might handle certain situations both in and out of game.
  • Poise, "wise beyond their years" - This is a different kind of rookie team, not just because they're actually doing well in the LCK but because they don't play afraid of more experienced and "better" teams.
  • Side selection + information from Afreeca's previous games - This is a potent combination.

So I'm going with a light wager (again remember I'm doubling playoff wagers) on Griffin here. I'm not going to go through the cons of each team because they both have them but what this series ultimately boils down to is preference of the known versus the unknown. Afreeca are a known quantity. They're always well-prepared, versatile, and have enough gamebreaking players like Kiin and Kuro to mise victories out of nowhere but they're really just a team that takes what's given to them both in game and in the draft. This isn't a bad thing, as a matter of fact it's a lot like what the very best teams in the NFL do. Don't get an ego about "we're a running team" or "we're the best split pushing team" they just do what's best for the given situation and this is very effective. It also can only go so far to me. Over the years in the LCK we've had a ton of teams like this have success and even go far in the World Championships but they've NEVER won LCK. The teams that win LCK are the ones that can take what's given to them but also go cook the damn meal themselves! I'm talking about the KT Arrows, Samsung White, SK Telecom (who always played on another level in playoffs), and even Samsung last year at Worlds. Am I saying Afreeca can't be that team? No I'm not I just don't think they are. Afreeca are the VERY GOOD team that isn't quite on the great level. Griffin haven't proven to use they're on the great level either but I'm willing to bet the unknown and I think Griffin haven't even shown us everything they can do and they still almost took down the #1 seed in the LCK in their first season. 

Throughout their time in the Challenger scene they excelled at "protect the Viper" comps and those kind of traditional 2-core compositions are back in. So is 1-3-1, the counter to that, I'm not fogetting that. I repeat, Griffin almost had the #1 seed in LCK Summer in their first season and that was playing an uptempo, odd meta advantaged style that was so far removed from how they preferred to play and they STILL were housing people. Griffin are also a team that can take what they're given, they'll play whatever they need to, I just think we haven't even seen their best yet and I'm willing to put a couple units on the "allure of the unknown" here. 

I don't want to take anything away from Afreeca making it this far but the truth is they abused a very one-dimensional Gen.G team and Kingzone appeared to have an abysmal read on both the current metagame and Afreeca for the first two games and essentially handed them on a silver platter to Afreeca as we discussed in our stream analysis the other day. In other words I think the Kingzone win was more on Kingzone being terrible than it was on Afreeca being excellent. Now beating Kingzone in any fashion isn't a small feat. You still need to take what's given to you and Afreeca are great at that. My bet isn't on Afreeca to "come back down to earth." They're a good team and they're playing perhaps a little better than their own average but well within reasonable expectations so I'm not going to call them "playing way above their level" or anything like that. I simply think the combination of Griffin having information, Afreeca having very little information on Griffin, and the fact that we just don't know how good (or how bad) Griffin are make me lean towards them in this scenario.

As I stated above, this really is a pick 'em and you need to find your reasons for your pick but I'm siding with Griffin here although I wouldn't fault anybody for taking either side with so much justification for either.


-----------------------------------------------------------
EU LCS 8/18 Schedule:

(picks pending)



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NA LCS 8/18 Schedule:

(picks pending)

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Betting: August 16th and 17th (LMS, LPL, EU LCS)


LOL Pro League (China) 8/17 Schedule:

(pending)

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EU LCS (Europe) 8/17 Schedule:

(pending)

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League Masters Series (Taiwan) 8/16+8/17





8/16 Schedule:

JTeam (-345, -1.5 @ -115) vs Team Afro (+230, +1.5 @ -118)

Hong Kong Attitude (-244, -1.5 @ +124) vs Machi eSports (+1.5 @ -175)

8/17 Schedule:

MAD Team (-385, -1.5 @ -102) vs AHQ eSports (+238, +1.5 @ -141)

Flash Wolves (-714, -1.5 @ -167) vs G-Rex (+362, +1.5 @ +117)



The LMS is finishing up its final week of the regular season with Flash Wolves in full control of the #1 seed, HKA and MAD duking it out for #2 and the #4 yet to be decided with JTeam and G-Rex in non-mathematically eliminated situations. Things to know. LMS does a gauntlet style playoff similar to the LCK so seeding is really important. Flash Wolves have had first place locked up and will automatically go to finals yet again. They're miles ahead of the rest of the region. HKA and MAD are convincingly the #2 and #3 teams in some order (personally I think MAD has looked better recently). These are the only three teams I actively watch in the LMS. There is another large gap between #3 and #4 so whichever team gets the #4 seed, whether thats JTeam or G-Rex doesn't really have that great of a chance of even winning the first round but hey, anything can happen. The point here is that Flash Wolves COULD get to "pick" the team that either they'd like to face in that miracle scenario where the #4 team actually gets to finals or the team they think has the best chance to knock off either MAD or HKA which leads me to my first pick.

Handicapped: JTeam -1.5 @ -115 (2 units)

Handicapped: Hong Kong Attitude -1.5 @ +124 (1.5 units)


Both of these are "must win" teams against bottom of the table teams. I know I'm MEGA squaring this slate but I think the handicaps are the way to go today. This is also sweet value considering the situation I'd think these lines are at least a little higher.


Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -167 (3 units)

So in a way Flash Wolves get to choose who they want to face here. They could punt this game on purpose to G-Rex to give them to the win and allow them to clinch the #4 seed regardless of a JTeam victory if they wanted. It's doubtful either G-Rex or JTeam would get through the bracket to Flash Wolves in the finals but they do get to choose a bit. JTeam have taken one of the three game wins off of Flash Wolves this season but we don't know how scrims go and we don't know what Flash Wolves thinks of these teams behind closed doors we can only speculate. Here's the information we need to know if you're going to play this situation:

  • Hong Kong Attitude vs G-Rex 2-0 (4-1), vs JTeam 1-1 (3-3), vs MAD 1-1 (3-2), vs FW 0-2 (0-4)
  • MAD Team vs G-Rex 1-1 (3-3), vs JTeam 2-0 (4-1), vs FW 0-2 (0-4) vs HKA 1-1 (2-3)
IF you're going to play the speculation game on this then my read is, especially considering MAD Team's most recent victory on 8/11 over HKA and the absolutely ridiculous play of budding superstar Kongyue and strong midlaner Uniboy, that MAD are the actual #2 right now so Flash Wolves would want the team that could beat them which, based on season results is G-Rex which leads you to say Flash Wolves might just let them win this game.

That said I don't think it will matter here and Flash Wolves, even playing very conservative as to not show anything still should smash every team in this region 2-0 in most situations. It's what they've done for two calendar years. I don't think that's going to really change. The only reason these odds are like this is because G-Rex have something to play for and Flash Wolves don't unless you count them more or less fixing their playoff opponents.


I'm going to straight up square bet this (as I'm one to do) and take Flash Wolves to win anyway because honestly, this team is so much further ahead of this entire region than maybe any other team in any other region on earth right now. We'll keep it to three units because of the G-Rex must win + Flash Wolves throwing on purpose if they think G-Rex is weaker than JTeam but I doubt that has any effect on this game. I also doubt a team like them wants any sort of allegations lobbied at them and with this being the last game before weeks of time off waiting for finals they want to end on a good note.

TL:DR - I'm not going to overthink the "Flash Wolves would rather see G-Rex so they'll let them win" narrative here and I'm just going to expect Flash Wolves to Flash Wolves on people like they do. I'm not concerned about the two game losses they've dropped recently and I think they'll want to end on a strong note as they'll have a lot of downtime before Finals.


Handicapped: MAD Team -1.5 @ -102 (2 units)

(UPDATE: My initial wager on this was 2 units but when I went back to add on my book was closed, This will be an addition 2-3 units for a total of 4-5 depending on where the line is when it opens back up.)

This line is so weird to me. MAD have looked really good outside of a match where G-Rex played out of their mind for a 1-2 loss (watch this game, it wasn't MAD team messing up as much as it was G-Rex just overperforming). They also upended HKA for the #2 spot in their last match and should be riding this momentum. If MAD were to lose this they'd lose the #2 seed with an HKA win over Machi (likely to happen) because HKA hold the tiebreaker (in LMS it goes h2h match score then to h2h game score that HKA leads 3-2). Again since LMS does a gauntlet style playoff seeding is crucial. MAD Team can clinch the #2 spot with a win and AHQ are dead last and with nothing to play for. They haven't really been using subs often but it wouldn't surprise me to even see some subs tried out here looking forward to next year. MAD Team are the second best team in this region right now and NEED this win, AHQ have nothing to play for except maybe some subs potential careers if that happens or potentially some pros last professional games if they choose to retire but this just seems like a sad end type of situation to me. I have no idea why this line isn't near to twice this number. I know these aren't elite teams so relying on the 2-0 is sketchy but this is a bad line and I'm going to attack it.

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PARLAYS:

These have absolutely no semblence of system or logic just a handful of yolo, fun parlays I've put down at different points today. Putting them down for the record but tail at your own risk. Also going to be mixing quarter unit wagers on the iterations of 2-3 but I'm not gonna write all those out.

Parlay (2): JTeam -1.5 @ -115 + Hong Kong Attitude -244, Total Odds: +164 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (2): JTeam -345 + Hong Kong Attitude -244,  Total Odds: -122 (1 unit)

Parlay (4): JTeam -1.5 @ -115 + HKA -244 + JD -1.5 @ -256 + Invictus -1.5 @ -154, Total Odds: +505 (1 unit)

Parlay (4): JD -1.5 @ -256 + IG -1.5 @ -154 + MAD -385 + FW -1.5 @ -167, Total Odds: +362 (0.25 units)

Parlay (6): FW -1.5 @ -167 + MAD -385 + IG -1.5 @ -154 + JD -1.5 @ -256 + JTeam -1.5 @ -115 + HKA -244, Total Odds +1119 (0.25 units)


Parlay (6): JTeam -345 + HKA -244 + JD -1.5 @ -256 + IG -1.5 @ -154 + MAD -1.5 @ -102 + FW -1.5 @ -167, Total Odds: +1222 (0.5 units)
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The International 2018 Picks (DOTA2)

So I don't play or analyze DotA at a high level or anything but I do enjoy watching the game quite a bit and usually try to find time to watch what I can of the majors. I'll do like casual fans do and just pick a team and ride them. Couple friends of mine that know the game better are on Virtus.Pro so I'm gonna ride with them for the tourney. I'll be taking the VP 2-0's for 0.25 units per tomorrow.

Virtus.Pro -161 vs TNC (0.25 units)

Virtus.Pro +105 vs Team Secret (0.25 units)

These are like soccer bets since they are best of twos so these are for the 2-0 only.








Tuesday, August 14, 2018


LCK Summer Playoffs Rd 2 8/15 Schedule:

(UPDATE: This line is now -303/-1.5 @ -185. This is the same writeup as yesterday just moved it for you all.)
Kingzone DragonX (-270, -1.5 @ -141)
vs Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5
Afreeca Freecs (+195, +1.5 @ +102)


DISCLAIMER: I'm doubling my unit count for the rest of the LCK season both as a statement of confidence and, to be honest, some more fun having a bigger stake in the games. I'd caution against tailing at these numbers. Cut them in half unless you're as confident as I am.



Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -128 (12 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-0 @ +208 (1 unit)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-1 @ +231 (1 unit)


As I said above this is a bit heavy handed so tail at your own risk but I'm surpemely confident in Kingzone here for a myriad of reasons. These are roughly in order of weight towards my decision from top to bottom.

  • Kingzone have had more time to plan for this match and have more film on Afreeca who had to prepare for Gen.G
  • Kingzone will not be surprised by the draft/champions that Afreeca showed on Sunday morning against Gen.G.
  • For as well coached as Afreeca are they'd be hard-pressed to have another curveball like that to throw on a few days notice and unlike Gen.G, Kingzone will actually aggressively draft counterpicks.
  • Kingzone have not only seen Afreeca's first curveball but they've seen a weekend of games in other regions that have punished greedy drafting from blue side so I doubt they'll make those mistakes.
  • Similarly to the last point, Kingzone can use some of those punish strategies effectively themselves since they have side selection they hold a lot of the cards here.
  • Side selection.
  • Kingzone was 4-1 in the head-to-head this season against Afrreca.
  • By the end of the Summer Split Kingzone looked like the team that I pinned to be the best team in the world prior to this entire year starting back in January. They're following the trajectory of elite teams that coast or even struggle a bit during the early Summer but ramp up and reach another level as we move toward the end of the year and Worlds time.
  • Khan is one of the few top laners in the world that could beat up on Kiin.
  • BDD is better than Kuro. Don't get me wrong I love Kuro and he's been severely underrated for his entire career (including his time on the Tigers) but he's just not as good as BDD plain and simple.
  • Kingzone have individual advantages at every other position.

I am a Kingzone fanboy and I think you all know that but even considering that this is clear as day to me. The most important things to consider are that Afreeca aren't going to surprise Kingzone and if by some chance they do it will be with a significantly less effective strategy and a strategy they picked up and prepared with less time. Kingzone are also a more dynamic team than Gen.G are, they're much more versatile and willing to punish aggressive picks than Gen.G who always play the same style.

LETS GET IT!



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LOL Pro League (China) 8/15 Schedule:


Rogue Warriors (-417, -1.5 @ -132)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5
TopSports Gaming (+299, +1.5 @ -102)


No Action


I'm tempted to go TopSports +1.5 here because Rogue Warriors don't really need this game and TopSports are in a must win situation. Rogue Warriors aren't the type of team to just coast, they have too much pride and fire in their bellies but after a triple 40 minute game slugfest with a bottom tier, nothing to play for OMG, I definitely think TopSports have a chance to take a game here. Rogue Warriors have iced the #1 seed already.

As an aside, Rogue Warriors have looked extremely reliant on Dr. Mundo. OMG banned it game one and won, didn't ban it game two and three and lost, also Mouse has played it a staggering 19 times... this next most played champion is 3 games played. Do I think Mouse can only play Mundo? Not at all but this type of reliance can make you get complacent. They did beat IG in a game without it so it's not like they need it, Mouse just hasn't really had to absorb any bans so he gets to play the extremely powerful Dr. Mundo quite a bit.

IF you're going to play this game I think the play is TopSports +1.5 @ -102. I'm going to wait to see if this line shifts at all and even then it might be a light 1-2u play.




Monday, August 13, 2018

Betting: August 14th (LPL and EARLY PICK LCK Summer Playoffs Round 2)

LOL Pro League (China) 8/14 Schedule:

Royal Never Give Up (-500, -1.5 @ -123)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
BiliBili Gaming (+336, +1.5 @ -105)


Suning Gaming (-175, -1.5 @ +153)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
LGD Gaming (+136, +1.5 @ -204)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -123  (3 units)

PROP: Map 1 OVER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 OVER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)


With BiliBili effectively eliminated from playoff contention and RNG having only two matches left to catch JDG you can bet they'll be hell bent on trying to give themselves the best shot at the #2 seed... that is, unless you think they're just coasting now that they're comfortably ahead of Suning Gaming. I think there's a possibility that RNG are doing a bit of that, not so much coasting out of comfort but because it'd be pretty tough to change their situation and they're not at any threat of losing a Worlds spot with so many Championship Points already. If BiliBili had something to play for here I'd like the +1.5 quite a bit but as it stands I like RNG to sweep this barring some unforseen carelessness. I'd like RNG to 2-0 as the most likely outcome even if both teams were in a heated race because I think RNG are enough better that that's a reasonable expectation. The current situation simply moves that expected 2-0 from say 60% to maybe 75%+.

I'm also taking the OVER's here. Both of these teams PREFER to play slow and with the metagame trending/already in that direction it wouldn't surprise me to see two slow, disciplined wins from RNG here especially if Uzi starts. Of course this could backfire as RNG could adjust from getting punished for this against Vici the other day but I doubt they'll change, they more or less know who they are. BiliBili's average game time has been lower than the line at 32:56 but they still prefer to play slow, those numbers are just skewed from when they were being run over earlier in the split.


------------------------------------------------------------------


Moneyline: Suning -175 (4 units)


PROP: OVER 2.5 maps @ +129 (2 units)


This is actually a fascinating match to me. LGD have been surging and finally living up to their individual talent. Suning have struggled off and on during the season but are still in possession of a playoff spot in their conference. Only one match win separates these two teams and they get to duke it out tomorrow and the winner will have a huge edge on holding that #4 playoff seed with the "double swing" of a win + loss.

As good as LGD have looked of late they're still not a particularly great team, just good individuals. Suning are a little bit of both but more importantly they play much better as a team than LGD do. Stylistically Suning are able to do a little bit of everything while LGD have embraced their new uptempo identity for better or for worse.

Both teams have had impressive wins this past week but we're going to go with Suning here. This team has only dropped one "bad" series all season and it was to Team WE a few weeks ago and one game loss to Vici in their first match of the entire split. They decisively beat the teams they should beat and they've even taken a few games off of superior teams like RNG, Rogue Warriors, Invictus and JDG. I love Suning to win this outright but I'm not confident enough in the 2-0 as LGD have looked the best they have in almost three seasons and their aggressive, uptempo style can likely take a game off of Suning, not that they're a passive team or anything.

Ultimately this will be the team that belongs in playoffs beating the team that doesn't.That's not the reason it's just what I think will be the reality here. Suning have only lost to good+ teams and they've been competitive with the great teams. LGD have a couple wins against good teams but nothing against the great teams. Both teams have won three of their last four so I don't really think either is hotter than the other. I also think Suning have the tools to handle LGD's early aggression with their strongest asset being their mid+jungle duo in Angel+H4cker.



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THIS PICK IS FOR WEDNESDAY!

LCK Summer Playoffs Rd 2 8/15 Schedule:


Kingzone DragonX (-270, -1.5 @ -141)
vs Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5
Afreeca Freecs (+195, +1.5 @ +102)


DISCLAIMER: I'm doubling my unit count for the rest of the LCK season both as a statement of confidence and, to be honest, some more fun having a bigger stake in the games. I'd caution against tailing at these numbers. Cut them in half unless you're as confident as I am.



Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -128 (12 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-0 @ +208 (1 unit)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-1 @ +231 (1 unit)


As I said above this is a bit heavy handed so tail at your own risk but I'm surpemely confident in Kingzone here for a myriad of reasons. These are roughly in order of weight towards my decision from top to bottom.

  • Kingzone have had more time to plan for this match and have more film on Afreeca who had to prepare for Gen.G
  • Kingzone will not be surprised by the draft/champions that Afreeca showed on Sunday morning against Gen.G.
  • For as well coached as Afreeca are they'd be hard-pressed to have another curveball like that to throw on a few days notice and unlike Gen.G, Kingzone will actually aggressively draft counterpicks.
  • Kingzone have not only seen Afreeca's first curveball but they've seen a weekend of games in other regions that have punished greedy drafting from blue side so I doubt they'll make those mistakes.
  • Similarly to the last point, Kingzone can use some of those punish strategies effectively themselves since they have side selection they hold a lot of the cards here.
  • Side selection.
  • Kingzone was 4-1 in the head-to-head this season against Afrreca.
  • By the end of the Summer Split Kingzone looked like the team that I pinned to be the best team in the world prior to this entire year starting back in January. They're following the trajectory of elite teams that coast or even struggle a bit during the early Summer but ramp up and reach another level as we move toward the end of the year and Worlds time.
  • Khan is one of the few top laners in the world that could beat up on Kiin.
  • BDD is better than Kuro. Don't get me wrong I love Kuro and he's been severely underrated for his entire career (including his time on the Tigers) but he's just not as good as BDD plain and simple.
  • Kingzone have individual advantages at every other position.

I am a Kingzone fanboy and I think you all know that but even considering that this is clear as day to me. The most important things to consider are that Afreeca aren't going to surprise Kingzone and if by some chance they do it will be with a significantly less effective strategy and a strategy they picked up and prepared with less time. Kingzone are also a more dynamic team than Gen.G are, they're much more versatile and willing to punish aggressive picks than Gen.G who always play the same style.

LETS GET IT!












Sunday, August 12, 2018

Betting: August 13th (LPL)

LOL Pro League (China) 8/13 Schedule:

EDward Gaming (-294, -1.5 @ +112)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
OMG (+220, +1.5 @ -147)


FunPlus Phoenix (-154, -1.5 @ +189)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
Team WE (+120, +1.5 @ -256)


Handicapped: EDward -1.5 maps @ +112 (2 units)

Would you look at that? EDG actually took care of business against a bottom tier team and held onto their current #2 seed in the West Region. It wasn't pretty and actually WE had a lead which is something they pretty much don't have against anybody even when they win. That's a worrying thing for EDG but they did a great job of stabalizing and eventually outscaled. Scout's Velkoz was outstanding in fights with excellent positioning. I'll admit I'm  skeptical on this one but I think the value is just too good to pass up. OMG are a scrappy team that can be competitive. They took a game off of Rogue Warriors the other day and beat Team WE 2-1 but I think we should put a bit more weight on their struggles against Team WE than their single game win against Rogue Warriors.

I don't hate the OMG +1.5 here but I think EDG should be up for this game so I'm going with the -1.5. TopSports could have taken over 2nd place in the conference with a win over FunPlus but they lost in spectacular fashion so that gives EDG a bit of a new lease on life for the #2 seed and I, against my better judgment, am going to trust them to take that momentum and run with it. This team should be so much better than this, they have an unbelievable amount of talent on this roster and while they haven't been able to put it together I do think they can 2-0 a bottom of the table team in OMG.

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Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix -154 (2 units)

FunPlus looked quite good in their 2-0 against the surging TopSports the other day and they're not out of playoff contention. They currently sit in 5th with a 6-9 match score while Snake holds 4th with a 6-7 score. With two matches in tow Snake are likely going to get this seed especially with how easy their schedule is moving forward but FunPlus are going to be motivated to stay alive here and they're just coming off of a great win against a team that I'd characterize as a mid tier team now in TopSports. FunPlus and Snake face off later this week and FunPlus could potentially have a double swing of a win plus a Snake loss to slingshot them into 4th place and give them much better odds of holding on to it. The point I'm making is that this match is really important for FunPlus, they looked great the other day against TopSports, Team WE have nothing to play for, and this is borderline "must win" territory for FunPlus. I like them for a couple units on the moneyline but this is a very mediocre team so I'm limiting wagers in this spot due to inconsistency and quite a bit of unpredictability.



Betting: August 12th (LCK playoffs, LPL, LMS, NA LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 8/12 Schedule:


Gen.G eSports (-192, -1.5 @ +161)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 16.5
Afreeca Freecs (+148, +1.5 @ -213)






Moneyline: Gen.G eSports -196 (6 units)

Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +159 (2 units)

By the end of the regular season I think there was a pretty big gap between the top four teams and the 5th and 6th seeded Afreeca and Hanwha. I think that stays in effect here. Gen.G have a metagame that heavily favors their playstyle, have side selection to do whatever they want in the draft, have looked A LOT better in the past two weeks, and after a rocky game one, utterly smashed Afreeca in their last meeting a couple weeks ago. Gen.G tend to play low kill games and in playoffs teams tend to play more reserved so even though 16.5 looks pretty low I don't think it's unreasonable to take that under but I'm going to avoid it because I think if Afreeca are going to take any games in this series it's by upping the tempo on Gen.G who have proven to be a potent macro team with a few exceptions. 

I don't have any numbers or metrics to really support this one as both teams are fairly even in those regards but I like Gen.G's form more recently and I think their ability to play short and long slightly better in each category than Afreeca as well as having side selection in a meta that's trending toward their playstyle gives them a big enough edge to like them for a 2-0 here.

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LOL Pro League (China) 8/12 Schedule:

LGD Gaming (-345, -1.5 @ +100)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
Vici Gaming (+248, +1.5 @ -130)


JD Gaming (-294, -1.5 @ +112)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 23.5
Suning Gaming (+220, +1.5 @ -147)


Invictus Gaming (-164, -1.5 @ +179)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5)
Royal Never Give Up (+127, +1.5 @ -244)



Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +100 (2 units)

I'm kind of on board with Pulse that LGD might be a better team than their record. They aren't a good team but they have good enough players that this should be a stronger lineup. Vici are cemented firmly at the bottom of the standings. They have eight game wins on the season and only one match win which was against LGD so why am I taking the LGD sweep here? LGD are actually only one match win out of playoff contention and if you consider that Suning have to play the strong JD Gaming today and could lose, LGD could actually move into the #4 seed in the East Region playoff. LGD have also been on a bit of a tear recently winning six of their last eight matches and five of their last six with their only loss against top team Rogue Warriors. In those wins were a 50 minute series win against OMG, and a decisive 2-0, albiet one that took a bit longer, over Team WE which included Y4's Viktor bottom.

I'm not going to put too much stock in Vici stealing a game from RNG yesterday but I will give them credit for jumping out to a lead against RNG. The problem this team has is that it will make aggressive plays and does a really poor job of taking objectives off of the action they force. It's the sign of a bad team. They're aggressive and constantly making plays but they look like they don't think about the next step or why they're doing things a lot of the time. In both game one and game three yesterday Vici jumped out to large leads against RNG and simply couldn't close the games. It took them 52 minutes in game one after repeated mistakes setting up a split/siege and in game three they ended up losing a 64 minute game that RNG appeared to be trying to lose (not literally) over and over and over and over and Vici still couldn't close. This isn't a good team.

Ultimately LGD are a tough team to read but it appears that their quality of individual players has been doing a lot of work for them recently and they're finally beginning to put things together. With revenge from the loss the first time around as well as a potentially tie for the #4 seed with Suning coming with a win and a Suning loss today you can expect LGD to pull out all the stops and ice this one against the LPL's worst team. I also think this is the only real value we can derive from this matchup and it's a decent line for something I'd expect to happen. The next choice would be the over 2.5 maps @ +132 if you don't believe in the sweep.

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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +112 (3 units)

We've talked a lot about JD's rise this season. They continued their winning ways yesterday with a different kind of win than has been the norm for them beating BiliBili at their own scaling game with Gangplank, Ezreal, and Azir picks that show that this team is continuing to grow and improve their versatility. JD Gaming are the real deal folks. I'm not quite sure they're on the level of Invictus or Rogue Warriors but you're looking at someone that's knocking on the door of elite status. Right now I think they're a better team than RNG are. Now there's a chance RNG are just slow rolling but just based on what we've seen JD are the stronger team. That puts them as the third best team in China. With RNG's championship points lead there's a good chance they'll end up at Worlds regardless of whether they win this season long as they make the playoffs and win a round. JD don't have that luxury so they're going to have to make quite a run and it looks like that could be happening.

Suning have struggled at times this season, so much so that with a loss here and an LGD win against Vici they'd be tied for the #4 seed in the East Region but this isn't a bad team. For this reason I don't think this will be a walk in the park for JDG. Suning are also a pretty good team consistently towards the top of that mid tier of LPL teams. Their only fault really has been that the East Region has three excellent teams ahead of them in IG, JDG, and RNG. They've really only had one "bad" loss and that was to Team WE. You could consider their loss to Edward "bad" if you want but I put these two teams in a similar tier. So if you consider Team WE a "bad" loss to a lower tier team, Suning have only really lost to good teams and have even taken some games against the elite teams. They even took a match against RNG the other day.

I want to hammer this play for JDG. These are very good odds for us but I'm going to dial it back for a couple of reasons. First, Suning have had four days or rest and preparation since their last match. Second, Suning have LGD breathing down their necks for the #4 seed and could move into a tie with a loss here. So why aren't I going with Suning? I just think JD are an ascending team right now and I like these odds quite a bit. As I said I'm staying reserved with this but I'm trying to attack a line I like here in some way. We'll take the favorites to sweep for 3 units although I think one or both of these games could be close.

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Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -164 (5 units)

PROP: Exact Invictus 2-1 @ +235 (1 unit)

PROP: OVER 2.5 total maps @ -128 (2 units)

This looks like it's going to be an absolute slobberknocker. With Uzi out of the lineup I would've SLAMMED Invictus here but with him appearing to be "back" I think RNG have a better outlook. How often are you going to get + odds on RNG? This seems like an easy mid unit dog play on RNG so why am I so heavy on Invictus? I have a few reasons. First, I think Invictus are the best team in the LPL right now and have been all season. I honestly thought they were even after RNG won MSI and still thought so even after RNG won Rift Rivals. I think they happened to lose Spring Semifinals to RNG in a CLASSIC series that could have gone either way and perhaps were a bit tilted for the third place match against Rogue Warriors. I know it sounds like I'm giving them a lot of leeway and making excuses for them but hear me out here because I'm trying not to be too results oriented.  Invictus have only lost to RNG and it was 2-1. Yes they've punted a lot of games to mid tier teams. With or without Uzi, RNG have dropped four series including losses to mid tier teams like Suning and FunPlus but most importantly two of RNG's losses have come to the other top tier teams. 1-2 vs JDG in week one and an 0-2 vs Rogue Warriors July 22nd. Now they also beat Invictus 2-1 the first time around which is going to be one of the main counterpoints here but in more or less every other way Invictus have been a better team.

  • Invictus: 1951 gold per minute, 1965 damage per minute, +262 gold differential per minute, 41% first blood, 65% first tower
  • Royal Never Give Up: 1852 gold per minute, 1776 damage per minute, +126 gold differential per minute, 44% first blood, 65% first tower

These numbers aren't that skewed because both teams play in the same conference and both teams have similar win% records  27 - 10 and 22-12 respectively. Invictus are a blazing fast team and although RNG are capable of the same thing, they prefer to play longer scaling games where they can feed Uzi resources.

I'm loving Invictus here for a a lot of reasons. The above stated metrics are one, JackeyLove being one of the only ADC's that can actually hang with Uzi is two, Invictus' utter dismantling of Rogue Warriors in 24 minutes and sub 20 minutes in their wins in that 2-1 match is a statement and I think RW are a better team than RNG is currently which is point number three. Invictus are a stylistic counter to how RNG want to play and have looked in better form in the past few weeks than RNG has. There is also the vengeance factor at hand. If the meta game wasn't as wild as it was back when these teams first met it wouldn't have surprised me to see either team win. Right now even with the metagame shifting more towards RNG's style I think Invictus have actually looked even better. They're so so good at punishing that they don't even need to draft early game teams to snowball so I like their odds in a long game too. I like Invictus to 2-1, I might actually drop a half unit on the 2-0 if I'm feeling more confident toward game time.

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League Masters Series (Taiwan) 8/12 Schedule:


Flash Wolves (-1250, -1.5 @ -233)
JTeam (+550, +1.5 @ +155)


G-Rex (-250, -1.5 @ +124)
@
AHQ eSports (+172, +1.5 @ -182)


Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -233 (2 units)

I haven't had a lot of action on the LMS this split because it's been quite weird and we haven't had too many good spots to bet in my opinion. There have been a few redditors that have had more success on the LMS season so I'd direct you to the esports daily thread in r/sportsbook for more frequent and accurate action. The one thing I'm sure of is the Flash Wolves are still roflstomping this region and we haven't seen a number this close to -200 in awhile so we'll throw a few units at it. Flash Wolves have lost only two games all season. One of them was, in fact, to JTeam but I'm not going to overthink this. Flash Wolves should stomp this. JTeam aren't even as good as they were last season.

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PROP: GRex vs AHQ OVER 2.5 maps @ -105 (1 unit)

AHQ look like one of the worst teams in the LMS but GRex haven't been too consistent either and these teams played a back and forth match the first time around that was actually quite entertaining if you get a chance to check out a vod or highlights. GRex have played all three games in all but two of their series this season. That makes ten out of twelve have gone to the third game and that's been against a mixture of good and bad teams including a 1-2 loss to the other bottom of the table team Team Afro. I actually don't have the AHQ moneyline here either but I'll probably just stay put on this. 


North American LCS 8/12 Schedule


(pending)