March 6th: LCK, LEC

March 5th Recap:

LCK: 2 - 1 (+1.75 units)


TOTAL: 2 - 1 (+1.75 units)

Afreeca with the outright wasn't too surprising. This was a competitive series that had a lot of ups and downs. Canna illustrating that he can play the neutralizer role well as Karma but then straight up lost the Gangplank Akali matchup by mismanaging his first few waves and showing that he didn't truly understand the matchup.

Afreeca firmly plant themselves as the best of the rest heading into the break. 

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)

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LCK (Korea)

Week 5 - Day 3

KT Rolster -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
Griffin +123 (+1.5 @ -234)

Trends:
KT Rolster are 0 - 1 straight up as favorites (loss to APK)
KT Rolster are 0 - 1 against the spread as favorites (loss 2 - 0 vs APK)
KT Rolster have gone to three games in 4 out of 8 series

Griffin are 1 - 6 straight up as underdogs (win vs SB)
Griffin are 3 - 4 against the spread as underdogs (covers vs SB, DWG, and HLE)
Griffin have gone to three games in 4 out of 8 series


Tale of the Tape:
KT Rolster:
0.91 damage per gold, 85% first blood, 65% first tower
49.2% of wards cleared, 3.8 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +1745 ,  CS @ 15: +10.2

Griffin:
0.89 damage per gold, 55% first blood, 55% first tower
47.3% of wards cleared, 3.8 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +45 , CS @ 15: -9.5

This line opened at -154 / +108 so we've lost a lot of line value. I still like KT to take this down. Griffin have the talent to compete in the LCK but the coaching staff and drafting has been a huge liability and I think it's starting to wear on these players. Griffin need this hiatus to reset their approach and clean a lot of things up. I also think that KT's uptempo, low to the ground approach to the game punishes teams that are indecisive like Griffin. It feels weird laying this much with KT but I think they're the right side. Value is probably on Griffin but I'm going against the grain, half weight on the KT moneyline. 

Moneyline: KT Rolster -181 (0.905 units)

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LEC (Europe)

Week 7 - Day 1

Rogue -769 vs Vitality +395
MAD Lions -313 vs Schalke +222
Misfits -260 vs Excel +172
G2 eSports -260 vs Origen +172
Fnatic -1136 vs SK Gaming +543

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Rogue -769 vs Vitality +395

As the Western leagues head into the final third of their season, the playoff picture is beginning to take place. In the LEC, there are three teams tied for first place and seven teams vying for only six playoff spots. Who isn't going to make the cut? Let's take a look at the Week 7 slate and which sides I like this weekend.

While Team Vitality have only managed a single win this season and are all but eliminated from playoff contention, they've looked significantly improved recently. The roster move to switch Jactroll for Steeelback at the support position finally appeared to be paying dividends but then, strangely, Jactroll started against G2 eSports last Saturday. Vitality will look to play spoiler on Friday.

Rogue have gone 1-1 in each of their last two weeks but against a very difficult schedule. Before that, in Week 4, they demolished FC Schalke 04 and SK Gaming, two of the bottom teams. Rogue are 6-1 straight up as favorites (average odds: -239) this season with their only loss coming to MAD Lions

.

When these teams last met in Week 2, a poor draft by Vitality led to an absolute stomping by Rogue. I expect a similar result especially because Rogue need this win in the playoff race. Rogue have taken the first tower at an 83% clip, better than almost every team in the world. There is some value in Rogue 1st Tower @ -256 (implied ~71% odds) if you have access to these kinds of props.

No wager: if you have access to first tower go for it

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Misfits -260 vs Excel +172

Excel bounced back from a blowout loss to Rogue by defeating MAD Lions on Saturday to move to 6-6 on the season. They've had some really low lows this season which people tend to overreact to but have generally been a good team and have one of the best coaching staffs in the league.

Misfits looked somewhat shaky against an SK Gaming team that I have pegged as the worst team in the league. They were also demolished by Fnatic last week. I've been saying Misfits are overrated all season and they've proven me wrong multiple times but it's starting to look like teams are figuring them out.

Misfits are 3-1 as favorites but the three wins were against Schalke, SK Gaming, and Vitality, the bottom three teams. While Excel are only 3-5 as underdogs this season I absolutely love them as a value play in this spot. To me these teams are evenly matched and this should be even money.

Moneyline: Excel +175 (1 unit)(5Dimes)

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MAD Lions -313 vs Schalke +222

Schalke are coming off of a difficult weekend against two of the top three teams. They managed to keep the Origen game close but were soundly defeated by Fnatic. After a few weeks of settling into the new lineup with Innaxe and Lurox, they've looked much better but are still not a playoff caliber team.

MAD Lions have been competitive against the top of the table taking games off of G2 and Fnatic but have had mixed results against the middle of the table. They've been a difficult team to read this season since they started much stronger than I expected for a team that I thought would take some time to develop with a lot of rookies.

MAD Lions are 4-3 as favorites (average odds: -234). Schalke are 1-9 as underdogs (average odds: +195). Like Vitality, Schalke are all but eliminated from the playoffs but I expect them to be competitive here and try to play spoiler. Their recent form is much improved and even back in the second week with the old Schalke lineup this was a close game. Give me the underdogs!

Moneyline: Schalke +240 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)

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G2 eSports -260 vs Origen +172

The game of the week in Europe is akin to a classical vs jazz music battle. Origen are a by-the-book, technique and structure team while G2 are constantly improvising. While I think Origen's approach is the superior way to play the game right now, this lineup has never been able to keep G2 within that structure and solve the puzzle. Origen have only taken a single game from G2 since the beginning of 2019. G2 are 4-1 in the regular season and swept Origen 3-0 in both playoff series they played last Spring.

Some people might hesitate to take a heavy favorite like this in the current state of the game and with G2 having lost three games this split to inferior competition but this is just a poor stylistic matchup for Origen. G2 are the exact kind of team they struggle with.

Moneyline: G2 -215 (2.15 units)(5Dimes)

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Fnatic -1136 vs SK Gaming +543

There aren't any angles on this game that I like. Fnatic should win decisively but the markets are all out of range. If I had to make a selection I'd look to SK Gaming first blood @ +148 because huge underdogs tend to take risks to get ahead early but Fnatic are such a strong early game team and SK have only a 33% first blood percentage.

No wager

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Parlays:

none today