Friday, March 27, 2020

March 28th: LPL, LCK, LEC, LCS




March 27th Recap:

LCK: 9 - 5 (+1.146 units)
LPL: 12 - 18 (+2.7335 units) 
LEC: 9 - 13 (-2.252 units)
Live: 1 - 1 (+0)

TOTAL:31 - 36 (+1.6275 units)





KT/Hanwha (Net: +1.396 units)

Griffin/Sandbox (Net: -0.5 units)

T1/DragonX (Net: -0.75 units).

OMG/FunPlus (Net: +0.934 units)

eStar/LNG (Net: -0.4units)

JDG/RNG (Net: +2.1995 units)

Rogue/SK Gaming (Net: -2.536 units)

Misfits/Vitality (Net: +0 units)

Schalke/G2 (Net: -0.25 units)

Origen/Excel (Net: +0.784 units)

Fnatic/MAD Lions (Net: -0.25 units)


--------------------------

The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS! 
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.

--------------------------

The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top! 

--------------------------

CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!

Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!

-------------------------

(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


------------------------




LCK (Korea)




Week 6 - Day 4


APK Prince +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
DAMWON Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)

I know DAMWON have looked really bad and haven't made adjustments but I sort of just feel like this is going to a be a matter of APK not having the horses to race here. The one thing DAMWON still have is good individual players. APK can get cheesy in the draft all they want but DAMWON are going to make you outplay them. I actually love the DAMWON sweep here and I didn't think I'd say that at any point this season.


APK are losing by an average of 10 kills per game in losses


DAMWON are winning by an average of 7.5 kills per game in wins

DAMWON almost lost game one of the first series before turning it around with a crazy backdoor. Game two was complete destruction. I'll take the all the DAMWON I can get my hands on and the map spread.



Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -101 (1.01 units)


Map 1: 

Prop: DAMWON OVER 13.5 total kills @ -102 (0.51 units)
Prop: DAMWON first to 5 kills @ -161 (0.805 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -4.5 kills @ -159 (0.159 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -5.5 kills @ -132 (0.132 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -6.5 kills @ -102 (0.102 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -7.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -8.5 kills @ +167 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -9.5 kills @ +215 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -10.5 kills @ +275 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -11.5 kills @ +349 (0.1 units)

Map 2:

Prop: DAMWON OVER 13.5 kills @ -116 (0.58 units)
Prop: DAMWON first to 5 kills @ -161 (0.805 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -4.5 kills @ -156 (0.156 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -5.5 kills @ -132 (0.132 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -6.5 kills @ -101 (0.101 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -7.5 kills @ +129 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -8.5 kills @ +162 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -9.5 kills @ +206 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -10.5 kills @ +261 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -11.5 kills @ +327 (0.1 units)

---


Gen.G -350 (-1.5 @ -102)

vs
Afreeca +236 (+1.5 @ -141)

I always like Afreeca as a "punch up" underdog. The all-in early style they prefer to play is just going to allow them to take games from the big dogs. Afreeca got one the last time around. As good as Gen.G are I like Afreeca to at least take a game here and maybe spike the whole series. This team is talented, don't overreact to the poor showing the other night that was almost entirely on the draft (Lucan vs Azir and other things).


Gimme an underdog special!


I'm not messing with kill spreads in this spot for Afreeca. When they lose they lose big and Gen.G tend to win cleanly when they do. If Afreeca are going to win this I'll just stick to the straight up.


Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -120 (0.6 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca +260 (0.25 units)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +509 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
---


DragonX -769 (-1.5 @ -167)

vs
Griffin +395 (+1.5 @ +118)

Griffin looked great in their first game and a half but ended up losing the series anyway. That game one was probably their best of the season. Is it a sign of things to come or a flash in the pan? It's got to be demoralizing losing after a showing like that. DragonX are coming off of a disappointing loss to Hanwha and an extremely difficult opponent in T1. DragonX played a very close game one against T1.


Long story, short, I think DragonX are one of the elite three teams and people are going to be off of them because they've lost two in a row. Expect a get right spot here. DragonX are going to smash.


Spread: DragonX -159 (3.18 units)


Map 1:

Prop: DRX first to 5 kills @ -179 (0.895 units)
Map 2:
Prop: DRX first to 5 kills @ -179 (0.895 units)

------------------------


LPL (China)




Week 4 - Day 5



Victory Five +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
LGD Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)


Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, Y4, Max
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua

As bad as Victory Five are, they are really cheesy and, more importantly, LGD don’t deserve to be laying -345 to anybody.

Spread: Victory Five +1.5 maps @ -123 (1.23 units)

---


Team WE -181 (-1.5 @ +160)

vs
BiliBili Gaming +123 (+1.5 @ -234)

Lineups:

WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo

I made this my pick of the week on The Gold Card Podcast. BiliBili are significantly better than their record and have run into a brutal schedule to start the season off. Team WE have been pretty good even after switching to a new starting mid laner. They haven’t shown it yet because of the schedule and some sketchy drafts but I’m confident BiliBili are a better team. The value here is also tremendous. 

Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -210 (2.1 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili +131 (1 unit)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)


---

Suning Gaming +444 (+1.5 @ +135)

vs
Invictus Gaming -885 (-1.5 @ -193)

Lineups:

SN: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind

This is an interesting spot. I typically love betting underdog +1.5's against Invictus because of the constant skirmishing style they like to play and they frequently disrespect their opponents. The thing is, Invictus are coming off of an embarassing loss to eStar.I want to bet the bounce back but I cant say no to the value in Suning in this spot. Suning is a good team and we're getting this kind of number against a highly variant Invictus squad? I'll take it.


Leyan starting makes this even more appealing, especially game one. I'm going to attack the game one spreads. Leyan isn't bad but Invictus haven't looked nearly as sharp with him in the lineup. They keep trying and it continues to just not work as well. I could see Invictus dropping game one, subbing in Ning, and winning this series.

Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ +135 (1 unit)(Nitrogen)

Map: Suning +458 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
Map Moneyline: Suning Map 1 +277 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)

Map 1:

Kill Spread: SN +4.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN +5.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN +6.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN +7.5 kills @ -112 (0.112 units)
Kill Spread: SN +8.5 kills @ -128 (0.128 units)
Kill Spread: SN +9.5 kills @ -147 (0.147 units)
Kill Spread: SN +10.5 kills @ -169 (0.169 units)



------------------------



LEC (Europe)




Week 9 - Day 2



Rogue -260 vs Schalke +172
Excel -287 vs SK Gaming +197
MAD Lions +172 vs Origen -260
Vitality +642 vs Fnatic -1667
G2 eSports -422 vs Misfits +271

Really tough to tell how motivated these teams are going to be so I'm going to be very light on the European slate today. There's also a few favorites that I think could lose but the value on the underdogs isn't quite enough (Schalke, MAD)

I'm taking a shot on SK Gaming. Excel tend to play really weird games and their margin of victory has been really low this split at 5.4. Neither team has anything to play for and it's the last day. I could see some real fiesta potential in this game.

Moneyline: SK Gaming +207 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: SK Gaming +6.5 @ -137 (0.685 units)
Total Kills: OVER 22.5 @ -147 (0.735 units)





------------------------


LCS (North America)



Week 9 - Day 1

TSM -181 vs 100 Thieves +123
Evil Geniuses +222 vs Cloud 9 -313
Liquid -141 vs FlyQuest -102
CLG +118 vs Golden Guardians -167
Immortals -181 vs Dignitas +123

TSM/100T:

I wrote a more detailed analysis of this over on The Action Network. Long story short, I don't think TSM experiment in this game and the way 100 Thieves has been winning is through individual laners doing well which won't be nearly as easy against TSM as it has been against their last handful of opponents.

TSM have an 81% first blood rate, implied odds on it are a little over 61%. TSM have won by at least 7 kills in all but one win this season (that one was by 5) and double digit kills in five of their nine wins. Six out of TSM's nine wins have also been under 34:00. Typically when they win it's because they snowball their early game.

This is a lot of exposure on one game. I'm supremely confident in TSM in this spot. I rarely have this much on a single best of one. Feel free to adjust to your risk tolerance.

Prop: TSM first blood @ -159 (1.59 units)
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -4.5 kills @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -5.5 kills @ +109 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -6.5 kills @ +132 (0.5 units)

Evil Geniuses vs Cloud 9:

I wrote a more detailed analysis of this over on The Action Network as well. Long story short, EG finally look like what they were expected to look like before the season began and there's a very high likelihood that Cloud 9 experiement in this spot. Even though C9 haven't really done a lot of that, and even though they could probably still win while experiementing, I think the likelihood of it happening alone boosts EG's chances to win this game. I like EG at this number even without considering that lack of implications for Cloud 9.

Conspiracy theory/narrative: Cloud 9 might WANT Evil Geniuses to win here if they'd rather face them than TSM or FlyQuest. 

It's often overexaggerated and I don't always buy into these theories but keep an eye on the previous game. If TSM lose, I'd hammer Evil Geniuses here.If I'm Cloud 9 I would definitely rather face EG or FlyQuest than TSM.

Narrative aside, I still like this spot, that's just a little icing on the cake if you're into that sort of thing. 


Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +222 (1 unit)
Prop: EG first blood @ +115 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: EG +3.5 kills @ +192 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +4.5 kills @ +156 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +5.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +6.5 kills @ -101 (0.505 units)
Kill Spread: EG +7.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)

Team Liquid/FlyQuest:

I wrote a more detailed analysis of this over on The Action Network as well.

This is honestly 2/3 strategic/stylistic mismatch of Liquid's strong early game (when they want it...) vs FlyQuests weak early game and 1/3 gut feeling. I can't see Liquid losing this match. Another week together, another week to learn from drafting mistakes. Maybe I'm naive but I'm willing to go down planting my flag on this team. 

Besides Cloud 9's one loss, FlyQuest have the highest margin of defeat in the LCS at 11.66 and a similarly low kills per loss at 5.8. When FlyQuest lose they lose bad. I like this team but I can see that happening here.

Prop: FlyQuest UNDER 8.5 kills @ -106 (0.53 units)
Moneyline: TL -141 (0.705 units)
Kill Spread: TL -3.5 kills @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Spread: TL -4.5 kills @ +100 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: TL -5.5 kills @ +120 (0.5 units)

CLG/Golden Guardians:

I know Golden Guardians aren't mathematically eliminated but CLG have looked better in recent weeks and don't appear to care that they're eliminated. A team with nothing to lose is scary, especially to a team that isn't that good to begin with like Golden Guardians. I love CLG outright in this spot.

Golden Guardians have only won by 7 or more in two wins. CLG the "bloodiest losers" leading the league in kills per loss at 8.38. If I like CLG outright AND we have a severe mismatch in terms of covering kill spreads, I like it even more. I'm wanted to aggressively attack that market but since the offerings are limited I'll diversify on the CLG spread offered instead of the moneyline because I like them outright.

Prop: Golden Guardians UNDER 12.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)
Kill Spread: CLG -0.5 kills @ +137 (1 unit)

Immortals/Dignitas

These teams have been streaky but I think Immortals have been the better team over the course of season. They have advantages in every position besides ADC and the current patch meta-game fits their roster construction and players very well.

Immortals have an AMOV of 6.1 kills, Dignitas have an AMOD of 9 kills. Dignitas have just a single loss of six kills or less, a punted lead against 100 Thieves.


I like Immortals to win this match, cover the small kill spread, and secure a playoff berth.

Kill Spread: IMT -2.5 kills @ -128 (0.32 units)
Kill Spread: IMT -3.5 kills @ -114 (0.285 units)
Kill Spread: IMT -4.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: IMT -5.5 kills @ +126 (0.25 units)

------------------------



Other Leagues



none yet



--------------------


Parlays:

Parlay (2): 

DAMWON map 1 -7.5 kills + DRX map 1 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 

DAMWON map 2 -7.5 kills + DRX map 1 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 

DAMWON map 1 -7.5 kills + DRX map 2 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 

DAMWON map 2 -7.5 kills + DRX map 2 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 

TSM -4.5 kills + Liquid -3.5 kills @ +252 (0.25 units)

Parlay (3): 
TSM -4.5 kills + Liquid -3.5 kills + EG +7.5 kills @ +547 (0.1 units)

For fun:
Saturday LCS Kill Spread Exacta Parlay (5):
TSM -4.5 + EG +7.5 + TL -3.5 + CLG -0.5 + IMT -3.5 @ +2781 (0.1 units)

Thursday, March 26, 2020

March 27th: LPL, LCK, LEC




March 26th Recap:

LCK: 9 - 5 (+0.697 units)
LPL: 6 - 13 (-5.494 units) 


TOTAL: 15 - 18 (-4.797 units) 




The dogs continue to bark and I continue to get crucified both for not listening to my own advice and just the LPL being the wild beast that it is.

Afreeca/Sandbox (Net: -1.0 units)
Honestly hard to give too much credit to Sandbox because Afreeca lost both these drafts so ridiculously hard it would have taken a ridiculous difference in ability for them to win these. Afreeca are pretty stubborn. They want to play early game snowballing teams and that's fine that they want to have that identity but they're going to have to change a few things with Azir, Corki, and Ezreal in the metagame. It's just so hard to punish these champions by killing them early in the game which is what Afreeca want to be doing. Afreeca break their three games per match streak but given their drafts I'm probably going to be on +1.5's against them until they show me an adjustment.

APK/T1 (Net: +0.647 units)
T1 smashed game one in just under 24 minutes. Game two was like an hour worth of pauses. Ellim got the start in the jungle and looked squeaky clean. 

Gen.G/DAMWON (Net: +1.05 units)
Gen.G 100% should have lost game two. DAMWON had mountain soul and somehow got aced at baron and lost on the spot. Super high likelihood that DAMWON are mega tilted from that loss and short turnaround. Could look at it the other way too and say "we were beating the best team." Interested to see how their mental game looks next series.

Dominus/Rogue Warriors (Net: -2.32 units)
I've liked that Rogue Warriors are drafting for mid game but they got behind in both of these games and because of that it got away from them even with Dominus at the helm. Not sure this moves the needle much for me either way. 

Suning/WE (Net: -0.854 units)
Plenty of Twitter discussion about this one. To me, Suning had superior drafts throughout the series but some of the issues they've been having this season reared their ugly heads namely their failure to protect Huanfeng and leave him out to dry in fights. This is going to be an unpopular opinion but I honestly think Suning definitely should have won two and three and probably should have won one too. WE played well on the day, punished the mistakes. Credit to them but this doesn't really change my opinion of either of these teams. Both are middle of the table and going to be battling for one of the last playoff spots. 

Vici/LGD (Net: -2.82 units)
Vici were mostly clean in these games but LGD really just kind of rolled over and died. Once snowball gets rolling LGD look incapable of doing much about it.



--------------------------

The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS! 
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.

--------------------------

The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top! 

--------------------------

CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!

Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!

-------------------------

(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


------------------------




LCK (Korea)




Week 6 - Day 3


KT Rolster -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
Hanwha Life eSports +123 (+1.5 @ -234)

This was a really weird series because I kind've think the team that played overall worse in a game won the game in at least two of these. That's like a once in a blue moon event. Usually it's one game like that.


I've rewatched Hanwha/DragonX twice now (as well as live) and DragonX pretty decisively outmaneuvered Hanwha around the map but just botched the actual plays once it came time to make them in game two. Game one was a win but they were outdrafted which made Leblanc + Lee extremely difficult for Zoe to deal with. DragonX's bot lane should have been smashed because of mechanical errors as well as Lulu being an extremely weak champion right now outside of very specific circumstances (her base is undertuned). DragonX still almost brought that game two back. DragonX were sort of just on tilt for the second half of game two once those plays went horribly wrong.


Long story short, I'm giving Hanwha credit for taking down DragonX but maybe not as much as most people are. It's concerning seeing DragonX come out somewhat rusty on the mechanical side of things out of the break. I'd expect them to return to form shortly. This team is too good and I think this was just an off performance.


KT continued the streak with a win against the still clumsy DAMWON Gaming who look like they haven't changed a bit. I've got to say, KT navigate these early game snowball compositions extremely well for an LCK team. Historically they've struggled with these types of compositions but even against a game one draft by DAMWON that should have stifled them, they were able to make it work. Took a little help from DAMWON but still, props. 


 Hanwha Life have been abysmal early in games with an  -1115 average gold differential at 15 minutes which makes sense when you consider that they like to rely on Cuvee to carry through the side lane in a lot of their games. Weirdly though, Hanwha tend to draft for early as a sort of crutch. KT have been one to punish in the early game with a +304 GD@15 and earning first blood and first tower 54% and 58% of the time. Hanwha more or less rely on opponents to botch plays early and to me that's not a good game plan to have. 


I like KT to win this series just because they're a poor stylistic matchup for Hanwha. I'm not confident in the 2-0 so we're going to stick with a moneyline to win half a unit. I was looking at first to five but at heavy juice we'll avoid that for now. If you can find a decent number on the UNDER 35:00 minutes I like it but the best I've seen is at -175 which eliminates a lot of the value.


This series also qualifies for my kill diversified kill spread.


KT Rolster have an AMOV of 10.42 kills.

Their lowest was a win by 6 and they've won by 9 kills or more in all but  3 of their 12 wins.

Hanwha have an AMOD of 9.4 kills.

Their lowest was a win by 3 in their first game of the season but they've lost by double digits in 8 of their 15 losses. 

Moneyline: KT Rolster -181 (0.905 units)

Map 1:
Kill Spread: KT -5.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: KT -6.5 kills @ +142 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: KT -7.5 kills @ +171 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: KT -8.5 kills @ +205 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: KT -5.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: KT -6.5 kills @ +144 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)

---


Griffin +108 (+1.5 @ -287)

vs
Sandbox -154 (-1.5 @ +197)

I wrote a lot on this series over at The Action Network so I'd encourage you to check that out. 


We've seen a series each from these teams since I wrote that piece earlier in the week. Griffin look like they haven't made any kind of adjustment whatsoever while Sandbox seem to be at least treading water with this new setup of Lonely and Punch in the top side. The thing is Afreeca punted both of these drafts so unbelievably hard (Lucian voluntarily into Azir when you had other ADC options...) that all Sandbox had to do was go even for the first 15 minutes and they won. That's what they did so I don't know how much credit to really give them here. 


It's tough because Griffin still think they can play these uptempo compositions but they just haven't been able to execute them at all and I could see a similar fate happening to them. I don't trust H Dragon to make the necessary adjustments AT ALL.


All of this said, I still think Griffin have a shot here and that Sandbox shouldn't be favored by this much over anybody. To borrow from the SGP guys this is a "close your eyes special." Griffin did win the first meeting and Griffin ahve been at least competitive in series against the other bottom half teams (1-2 vs KT, Hanwha, DAMWON, 2-1 vs APK and Sandbox). The players on this team are still quite good and while that doesn't matter as much in the current iteration of the game it does make me a lot more confident in them to actually take games. 


Despite their terrible record, Griffin have actually been the most graceful losers in the LCK this season and have the lowest margin of defeat (AMOD) in the league at 7.11 kills. They've stayed within a 6 kill or less deficit in 9 of their 14 losses and are averaging 6.22 kills per loss. 


Sandbox have an AMOV of 9.8 kills.


We're going to go a bit against the numbers here only because I actually like the underdog in this spot. Short of those outlier wins with fewer kills we'll put a quarter unit each on the Griffin kill spread per map to get a profit as long as they take a single game. The alternative here is to just take the best +1.5 maps you can find. At -238 on 5Dimes (best I could find) you can win 0.42 for your 1. With this line you're only locking a minimum of 0.3 but a game two win hits you 0.57 and both a bit more. If you want the higher risk/reward split your maps and take the Grifin -0.5 and -1.5 on both maps and do the calculations on profit yourselves to see which you prefer. I'm going to take the +1.5.


Underdog spreads are 31 - 21 in the LCK this split.


Spread: Griffin +1.5 maps @ -238 (1.19 units)
(5Dimes)


---


T1 -141 (-1.5 @ +222)

vs
DragonX -102 (+1.5 @ -313)

T1 look extremely clean. It's APK but to T1 look sharp coming out of the break and even after an hour worth of pauses were able to turn the corner in game two. DragonX we discussed in the Hanwha post. 


DragonX were -139 favorites in the first meeting between these two which T1 took down 2-1. Both of these teams are so good in their punish game and so clean most of the time that whoever gets a lead in these games is likely winning it. In the first meeting, all three games went just under the 35 minute mark. I actually think we'll see some shorter games before we see longer ones. 


I usually like splitting both sweeps when two elite teams face off but every single meeting between the top three (Gen.G, T1, and DRX) in Korea has gone to three games this split. I don't usually see that being the case but we'll dodge that for now since I don't like the spread numbers we're getting. 


I'm fairly confident DragonX get a game here. This time I like spreading it over two kill spreads to guarantee a 0.51 instead of the 0.37 we'd get on laying the -270 (assuming 1u for sake of comparison). 


Kill Spread: Map 1 DRX -1.5 kills @ +151 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 DRX -1.5 kills @ +151 (0.25 units)
(5Dimes)

UPDATE:
Kill Spread: Map 1 DRX -1.5 kills @ +136 (0.5 units)

Adding on because T1 are starting Ellim again. He was good yesterday but DRX are a significantly higher level of competition. Could see T1 losing first game and subbing him out. Could still win the series but like DragonX map one even more now.

------------------------


LPL (China)




Week 4 - Day 5



OMG +444 (+1.5 @ +135)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -885 (-1.5 @ -193)


Lineups:
OMG
FPX

I discussed on the podcast that I absolutely love this spot for OMG. The value is just too good. 

Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ +137 (1 unit)

Moneyline: OMG +462 (0.5 units)


Map 1:
Kill Spread: OMG +3.5 kills @ +185 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +4.5 kills @ +158 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +5.5 kills @ +137 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +6.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +7.5 kills @ +100 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +9.5 kills @ -141 (0.141 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +10.5 kills @ -175 (0.175 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: OMG +4.5 kills @ +154 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +5.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +6.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +7.5 kills @ -103 (0.103 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +8.5 kills @ -119 (0.119 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +9.5 kills @ -143 (0.143 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +10.5 kills @ -169 (0.169 units)
(5Dimes)

---



eStar Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)

vs
LNG eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)

Lineups:

EST
LNG

We talked a lot about this one on the podcast. I'm going with LNG primarily because the value here is just too good. I still have my skepticism about eStar even though they're slowly pushing that out of me but this is a huge overreaction. LNG are a pretty good team and the LPL favorites aren't exactly stable. As a matter of fact, if you bet every single underdog moneyline blind in the LPL this season youd have almost +17% ROI. Granted a good chunk of that is eStar and OMG but the point still stands. Underdog spreads aren't too far off either.

LNG are also scoring decent kill totals when losing so I'm going to roll the kill spreads as well although, in this spot, it's a bit more of a gut check. I think this is going to be a much closer series than people seem to think.


There's also the classic let-down spot angle at play here. eStar are coming off their biggest victory ever, there's usually either overcockiness or just lack of focus in spots like that. I'm not calling eStar a bad team but they're exploitable AND we're getting a let-down spot. I LOVE the dogs here!



The Underdog Special:

Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ -112 (1.12 units)
Moneyline: LNG +251 (0.5 units)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +553 (0.1 units)


Map 1:

Kill Spread: LNG +2.5 kills @ +194 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: LNG +3.5 kills @ +169 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: LNG +4.5 kills @ +147 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: LNG +5.5 kills @ +126 (0.1 units)
Map 2: 
Kill Spread: LNG +1.5 kills @ +190 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: LNG +3.5 kills @ +149 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: LNG +4.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: LNG +5.5 kills @ +112 (0.1 units)
(all 5Dimes)
---

JD Gaming -181 (-1.5 @ +160)

vs
Royal Never Give Up +123 (+1.5 @ -234)

Lineups:

JDG
RNG

Both of these teams are coming off of disappointing weeks overall but prior to their most recent two matches, RNG looked like the best team in the league. To me this line should be way closer to even money. I personally handicap RNG as a better team still. Two matches does not a bad team make!


Give me the dogs!


The Underdog Special:

Spread: RNG +1.5 maps @ -234 (2.34 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: RNG +123 (0.75 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +277 (0.1 units)(5Dimes)


------------------------



LEC (Europe)




Week 9 - Day 1



SK Gaming +395 vs Rogue -769
Misfits -478 vs Vitality +296
Schalke +593 vs G2 eSports -1408
Origen -654 vs Excel eSports +345
Fnatic -313 vs MAD Lions +222


SK Gaming vs Rogue

SK Gaming are playing for pride but Rogue have been steadily improving over the course of the season. Their margins of victory have grown larger and larger. This teams is really good and peaking at the right time. It took awhile but they're here.

The last time these two met Rogue smashed in an 11-4 victory during their somewhat slow start. For having a "disappointing" season, Rogue have had some pretty insane numbers.

 Rogue have been first to 5 kills, first tower, first blood , first dragon all at a very high clip... All of that AND this is a very important match for them in terms of playoff seeding as they have the potential to move up to #4.

There is value in the first tower prop as Rogue have a big edge over the implied odds. While first to 5 is priced appropriately, if I'm asuming we're getting the win here 

Rogue have an AMOV of 10.33 kills and have won by double digits (avg: 15) in their last three matches. Rogue have 14.55 kills per win.

SK Gaming have an AMOD of 9.64 kills although they have not lost by double digits their last five (8, 9, 7, 9, 9). SK have 5.78 kills per loss.

Prop: First to 5 kills @ -263 (1.315 units)
Prop: First to 10 kills @ -370 (0.925 units)
Prop: Rogue First Tower @ -233 1.165 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -5.5 kills @ -213 (0.213 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -6.5 kills @ -172 (0.172 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -7.5 kills @ -143 (0.143 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -8.5 kills @ -118 (0.118 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -9.5 kills @ +104 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -10.5 kills @ +127 (0.1 units)
Kill spread: Rogue -11.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)

Misfits vs Vitality

Long story short, I kind of like the underdogs in this spot. Vitality have actually been throwing punches unlike SK Gaming and have jumped out to some early leads on the back of Skeanz. Misfits lack of flexibility has finally caught up to them. With that said, I'm not going overeboard on them winning this match, although we'll have a taste, against a Misfits team that's fighting for their playoff seeding. Other than their win against Excel two weeks ago, Misfits have been slowly trending downward in AMOV. Vitality have also been losing by higher amounts but it's only a slight uptick. 

I'm thinking Vitality will keep this close as a fiesty underdog. A lot of these players will be fighting for jobs next split and want to put up a good performance here. The numbers don't entirely support this it's more of a gut cap.

Prop: Vitality First Blood +135 (0.25 units)
Prop: Vitality OVER 6.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)
Moneyline: Vitality +331 (0.25 units)
(5Dimes)

G2 vs Schalke

Schalke won the first meeting between these two but I don't really correlate G2 losses to anything besides their own arrogance. Capping this game depends largely on whether or not you think G2 take this seriously. They have a game lead for the #1 seed going into this final weekend. All they need to do is win one game. G2 get Misfits tomorrow.

Schalke have actually looked good even though they're eliminated. They're playing almost like a diet version of Origen. Controlled, disciplined, scaling League of Legends. G2 are a really difficult team to play this style against.

I'm going to take a shot on the Schalke moneyline. G2 sometimes just clown around for games with little rhyme or reason to it. How it happens is different every time. Sometimes they just draft weird stuff, other times they get a little overzealous in a fight and lose on the spot, other times they just kind of roll over and lose. Instead of attacking specific markets we'll just take a shot a the general upset.

Moneyline: Schalke +653 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)

Origen vs Excel

This iteration of Origen just doesn't lose to teams that they are better than by design. Their by-the-book style basically forces you to have stronger individual players than they do or to be able to break the defenses they set up. Their only losses are to Fnatic and G2 other than one to Misfits when they were on fire. 

Watching Excel last week they looked defeated, checked-out, and depressed. I know I sound like a mad man talking about body language in game but they really just looked done for lack of better terms. 

There's a chance Excel relax, let loose, and play some fun stuff but Origen will be taking this match seriously as they battle for the #2 seed with Fnatic and potentially more if G2 lose today.

Kill Spread: Origen -5.5 kills @ -196 (0.196 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -6.5 kills @ -156 (0.156 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -7.5 kills @ -123 (0.123 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -8.5 kills @ -103 (0.103 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -9.5 kills @ +104 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -10.5 kills @ +127 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -11.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)

MAD Lions vs Fnatic

I think MAD Lions are pretty good but they're outclassed here. Fnatic are also playing for the #2 seed and potentially more but Fnatic do play a slightly higher variance style than a team like Origen does. 

MAD have a better chance at winning this than the odds imply so I'm going to take a shot at the moneyline here but not for much.

Moneyline: MAD Lions +224 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)


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Other Leagues



none yet



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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Rogue -7.5 kills + Origen -7.5 kills @ +208 (0.25 units)