Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Betting: March 21st (LCK / LPL)

LCK March 21st Schedule:

KSV eSports (-208, -1.5 @ +144, M1 -179, M2 -182, M3 -161)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+162, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +139, M3 +124)

Kingzone DragonX (-909, -1.5 @ -222, M1 -526, M2 -588, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Jin Air (+519, +1.5 @ +167, M1 +348, M2 +378, M3 +275)

Prop: Exact Score Jin Air 2-0 @ +1428  (0.25 unit)

Prop: Game 3 to be played YES @ +216 (0.5 unit)

The -1.5 @ -222 is a tad rich for me in a game that doesn't really matter for Kingzone who have already locked up the #1 spot. To me theres three ways this goes. 

  • Kingzone play to not reveal anything to anybody, continue playing as if their first seed isn't locked up. If this was the case I'd say this is a 2-0 for them.
  • Kingzone try to highlight a pick to scare other teams with going into playoffs. I think this is less likely because of the long amount of time between the end of the season and the Spring Finals in Korea. It's possible though. If they choose this out then it's possible they drop a game with said pick.
  • Kingzone just pick or play to style on Jin Air and get punished for it. Some of these Jin Air players are playing for jobs against substitutes and practice squad players so their season isn't over. They've also shown some fight against Afreeca and KSV in their previous two matches and while I think Kingzone is on another level I do think it's possible for Jin Air to randomly steal this series if Kingzone decides to goof around too much.
I don't like the cost of betting Kingzone in a match that doesn't really matter to them. If they were still trying to lock up #1 I'd go heavy on the -1.5 @ -222 but they really have nothing to play for here other than momentum and to perhaps show something they want to get banned so it's completely reasonable to think Jin Air could take this. I'm putting a couple lottery tickets down. One on the Jin Air 2-0 and one on the series going to three games.


Handicapped: ROX Tigers +1.5 maps @ -189 (4 units)

Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +435  (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Score KSV 2-1 @ +227  (1 unit)

I want to say KSV have looked more "in form" but the truth is it's just the Velkoz pick for Crown and mistakes from other teams. I think ROX are a better team despite their recent struggles. ROX could actually steal the #4 seed still and a 2-0 would put them ahead of KSV in breaks and tie them in match score with only Jin Air remaining. KSV have to face Kingzone but we're not sure how much KZ will care about that game.

I don't think KSV "are back" like everyone else does. I think they've benefited greatly from botched early games by their opposition and teams refusing to take away or punish the Velkoz. They're the same passive team they've been all year, teams have just gotten a little sloppy against them. ROX aren't a sloppy team. Side selection and KSV's wins not impressing me are what's driving me to think this will be a 2-1 KSV victory but I legitimately think ROX could just win this outright and even sweep. I'll put a unit on the ROX 2-0 because I think this series will end up with the two-faced KSV either not showing up and getting 2-0'd or KSV showing up and having a long, hard fought three game series that could go either way.


LPL March 21st Schedule:

OMG (-132, -1.5 @ +216, M1 -130, M2 -125, M3 -123)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Vici Gaming (+103, +1.5 @ -294, M1 +100, M2 -103, M3 -104)

Snake eSports (-101)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
EDward Gaming (-120, -1.5 @ +234)

Moneyline: Vici Gaming +103  (2 units)

Prop: Exact Score Vici 2-1 @ +278 (0.5 units)

These are two of the worst teams in the LPL but I think Vici are learning their new, aggressive playstyle on the fly and are only going to get better at it (they can't get much worse). Vici 2-0'd LGD two weeks ago and stole a game off of JD in their last match. I'm not saying they're a good team or anything but things are improving ever so slightly.

This is mostly saying that OMG aren't better than anybody and I think Vici can win this one. OMG give up first blood 68% of the time and Vici, while struggling to capitalize, have been getting it in most of their recent games. I think Swift can carry this one. It's a little loose and I don't normally like betting on two bad teams but I'll put a couple units on Vici here. 


Moneyline: EDward Gaming -120 (3 units)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +234 (0.5 units)

Prop: Exact Score EDG 2-1 @ +256 (0.5 units)

This was up on my book early in the day and then down so I don't have all the info in front of me anymore. I think EDG are just slightly better. Their strength of opponent is a lot stronger and they still have a similar record to Snake who have been reeling of late. My one reservation about this match is that Snake match up really well against how EDG like to play. Ray and Flandre are both carry top laners and both teams play well around their star ADCs in Kryst4l and iBoy. Snake 2-0d last time but that was the second match of the season and EDG proceeded to win their next 5 series. Snake got absolutely stomped by RNG and RW in their two most recent matches and while I don't think EDG is on quite the same level I do think they're built similarly. I like EDG to win this 2-1. Scout and Meiko are enough better than their opposition, Ray can play carry into carry against Flandre if it comes to it, and Haro and SofM are relatively even to me. These factors along with side choice and stylistic similarities make me thing this won't be another Snake 2-0 but an EDG 2-0 or more likely a 2-1.

Monday, March 19, 2018

Betting: March 20th (LCK / LPL)

LCK March 20th Schedule:

KT Rolster (-667, -1.5 @ -208, M1 -400, M2 -400, M3 -313)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+430, +1.5 @ +142, M1 +275, M2 +275, M3 +223)

Afreeca Freecs (-323, -1.5 @ -116, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -192)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
BBQ Olivers (+237, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +185, M2 +187, M3 +147)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -164 (3 units) 

I put this in on Sunday night during tiebreakers because I had a feeling this line would drop when people realized what KT do to bad teams. KT also have every reason to go for this as it could be the difference between a second and third seed in the playoff gauntlet. MVP have looked much better and Pilot has really been performing well but this is just a complete mismatch. I expect this to be all business on KT's side and while they might not be in full style mode they should be clean and concise in these. I'm not going to take the under because I think they'll be at least a little bit more careful but I definitely want to. I might actually add on here so stay tuned.


Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ -102  (3 units)

Just like with the KT bet I put this in on Sunday night because I knew this -102 wouldn't hold. With a 2-0 Afreeca can secure their #2 seed regardless of the result of the final match of the season, a showdown with KT Rolster. I expect them to take care of business here against an inconsistent BBQ team. We've been burned by BBQ but I think this is exactly the moment you don't shy away from them. They aren't a good team and have only looked good in seemingly random performances. Afreeca need this to secure a coveted #2 seed so they get to see information out of KT or whoever they end up facing. I also happen to think this is a brutal matchup for BBQ. Kuro is looking like the league MVP and while Tempt has been servicable he doesn't really stand a chance here. Afreeca stomped this match the first time around and that was in the slower Patch 8.2 metagame. I full expect the same thing to happen with the stakes upped.


LPL March 20th Schedule:

Rogue Warriors (-1250, -1.5 @ -263, M1 -588, M2 -556, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
LGD Gaming (+635, +1.5 @ +175, M1 +369, M3 +355, M3 +275)

Royal Never Giveup (-556, -1.5 @ -141, M1 -345, M2 -345, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5)
JD Gaming (+375, +1.5 @ +108, M1 +248, M2 +246, M3 +213)

Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -263 (4 units)

Rogue Warriors are on an absolute tear as SmLz and DoinB dominate their opposition game in and game out. This team has lost a single game in their past nine matches for an impressive 18-1 game record in that time including 2-0 victories over Snake, EDG, and Team WE. These guys are legit. I also happen to be done with my "LGD is better than their record" shpiel. This team just sucks and without Imp I can't see it being better in the short term. Perhaps next split they'll be ok but this team is out of playoff contention and looking toward next split. Rogue Warriors have a chance to keep pace with the seemingly unstoppable Invictus Gaming and keep their two match lead over RNG. In my opinion IG, RW, and RNG are the three best teams in the LPL and are in their own S Tier while Suning, EDG, BBG, and perhaps WE are in the A Tier. This team is dominant and I see no reason not to take the sweep even with this much juice especially because their strongest players will be facing LGD's weakest players in Yuuki and Fdy.


Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -141 (4 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -119 (1 unit)

I was wrong about Snake being close to RNG. With Uzi in the lineup they're simply a completely different team. This is one of the best players of all time and he's still dominant. As a matter of fact I think he's gotten better. JD were good earlier in the season and even took a 2-1 series off of RNG in Week 2 but that was a different RNG roster. After a 4-1 start, JD have dropped six of their last eight with their only wins coming against two of the worst teams in the league in Vici and OMG. Even then they gave a game to Vici. This team lost to FunPlus as well. I've watched most but not all of JD's games and it just seems like they are a one trick squad that got figured out. They've shown nothing but protect the carry style compositions and that's really predictable for other teams to draft against however they choose. They've played a lot of champions but they all accomplish the same thing. With Galio and Zoe nerfed and Azir taken away in about half their matches (47% most of which has been recently) this team appears to be solved and unless they come up with something new they're going to keep losing to all but the worst teams. For added insult, playing protect the carry against one of the best carries the game has ever seen in Uzi isn't going to work. RNG know how to play against it and what it's weak to from years and years of playing that style themselves. RNG are going to run this team over. I'm going to take the Under in both games as well.



I'm going to be playing a suite of parlays on this slate because I strongly believe it will be a four sweep night. I'll be doing different iterations of 2, 3 and 4 way parlays on the sweeps and/or moneylines. I'd encourage you to do the same thing.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Betting: March 19th (LPL)

LPL March 18th Schedule:

Suning Gaming (-625, -1.5 @ -172, M1 -400, M2 -370, M3 -345)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
TopSports Gaming (+400, +1.5 @ +130, M1 +275, M2 +259, M3 +244)

Team WE (-278, -1.5 @ +101, M1 -238, M2 -238, M3 -238)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+209, +1.5 @ -132, M1 +178, M2 +178, M3 +178)

Handicapped: Suning Gaming -1.5 maps @ -172 (3 units)

I'm a tad hesitant on this one because TopSports have randomly stolen games off of similarly strong teams to Suning but XiaoAL is in really good form right now to help stave off the effects of Marin, the person that carries TopSports when they do win. This match feels to me like Knight and H4cker are just going to run wild. TopSports is still one of the worst teams in the league and they more or less only win when Marin goes off or the other team makes egregious mistakes and that hasn't been Suning's MO. 


Handicapped: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +101  (2 units)

If FunPlus Phoenix want to sneak into the playoffs they'll have to steal the 4th spot from Team WE who are currently three match wins ahead of them. You could make an argument for the FunPlus +1.5 here but I think despite looking shaky at times recently, that Team WE can put this team away. The first team they played it took game one before Team WE solved and stomped FPP and I think FPP haven't really changed that much. This one is a bit of a gut feeling because Team WE have been punting individual games but winning series quite a bit but I just don't think that happens this time. I think they put this team away and more or less secure their playoff spot.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Betting: March 18th (LCK / LPL / NA LCS/ LCL / LMS)

LCK March 18th Schedule:

KSV eSports (-208, -1.5 @ +145, M1 -175, M2 -175, M3 -175)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
SK Telecom (+160, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +135, M3 +135)

ROX Tigers (-313, -1.5 @ -111, M1 -244, M2 -244, M3 -244)
(Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Kongdoo Monster (+227, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +181, M2 +181, M3 +181)


Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ -102 (4 units)

A 2-0 win here would go a long way to securing the 5th seed for ROX Tigers and eliminating SK Telecom and Kongdoo are absolutely dreadful. For green playoff teams this is a spot where they'd punt a really important game but I think ROX are the real deal and Kongdoo are enough worse that I can't see this happening any other way but a 2-0.I got in for four units and the line immediately moved to -1.5 @ -111 so get in while the gettin' is good that's actually great value for a match I expect to be extremely one sided.


Moneyline: SK Telecom +160 (3 units)

Call me gullible but I still believe in SKT. I mean really what I believe in is that this KSV team is still really two faced and have still been incapable of creating leads for themselves. They only win on mistakes from their enemies and I doubt people are going to keep letting Crown have Velkoz or the Faker will have something cooked up for it. SKT also have side choice so I'm going with the moneyline here. I think they learned not to start Blank last match but then again I thought they learned that earlier in the season. This is more a bet on against KSV than it is for SKT and admittedly it's a bit of a gut shot.


LPL March 18th Schedule:

Rogue Warriors (-909, -1.5 @ -179, M1 -455, M2 -435, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
OMG (+523, +1.5 @ +135, M1 +309, M2 +293, M3 +275)

RNG (-233, -1.5 @ +137, M1 -192, M2 -185, M3 -179)

@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Snake eSports (+157, +1.5 @ 196, M1 +147, M2 +141, M3 +135)

Handicapped: RW -1.5 maps @ -179  (3 units)

I know OMG showed some signs of life but this RW team is legit good and this should be an easy 2-0 trouncing. I'd take the unders on game time if they were posted but I haven't seen anything yet.


Moneyline: Snake eSports +176 (2 units)

Handicapped: Snake +1.5 maps @ -179 (4 units)

I have absolutely no idea why RNG is favored by this much in this match. This should be close to a push. I know they've won every single series since Uzi has returned but they also haven't faced a team as good as Snake yet. The closest comparison would be EDG but I think Snake are better. This should be closer to a push. I could see RNG being -120 to -101 or something like that but this is just outright stupid. Snake are a really good team, arguably the 3rd or 4th best in China and RNG are in the same spot to me. Snake also get side selection and this match is being played at their home venue, the 'Snake Pit' which has been the only really effective homefield advantage in the LPL so far for the teams that have home stadiums. I'm not saying Snake is necessarily a better team than RNG but this line is way WAY out of whack and I think these two teams are more or less even. 


LMS (Taiwan) March 18th Schedule:

J Team (-213)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Machi eSports (+153)

(waiting on lines)


Turkish Champions League March 18th:

SuperMassive -1429 @ Galakticos +611
Royal Bandits -345 @ YouthCrew +225
Team AURORA -244 @ HWA Gaming +168
1907 Fenerbahce -227 @ Dark Passage +163

Prop: Super @ Gal UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Prop: RB @ YC UNDER 31:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: AUR @ HWA UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: FB @ DP  UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Once again a continuation of this trend betting. Rough day yesterday but barely. This bet has been great for me all year. Under 30 may seem extreme but SuperMassive has defeated Galakticos under 24 minutes twice and under 29 the the other time.


LCL (CIS Region) Playoffs March 18th:

Gambit (-1111, -1.5 @ -435, -2.5 @ +103)
Team Just Alpha (+513, +1.5 @ +261, +2.5 @ -149)

Handicapped: Gambit -2.5 @ +103 (2 units)

RoX got stunned yesterday by M19 but Gambit are the best team in this region and as we discussed yesterday it's not particularly close. M19 had some early game chops. Team Just Alpha are kind of just the best of the rag tag bunch for the rest of the league. I expect this to be a 3-0 stomping. Gambit has beaten TJA both times they've played before and while one of those games was a close 39 minute afair early in the season the other was an absolute blowout. I'd be shocked if this wasn't a 3-0 so let's hope lightning doesn't strike twice here in the LCL.


North American LCS March 18th Schedule:

Moneyline: Echo Fox -130 (2 units)

Moneyline: TSM -161 (3 units)

I don't really feel too strongly about this slate because it's hard to tell which of the bottom teams will show up to play and which won't but I like Echo Fox and TSM quite a bit today. I'll be doing a lot of live betting for NA LCS today now that I'm home but I'm also gonna run some parlays with the heavy favorites to try to gather some value where we can.

(UPDATE: Live bet FlyQuest @ +207 once they picked Sneaky the first time and before baron for one unit. Kog comps with huge frontline like this against single frontline is really really powerful.)

(UPDATE 2: Added 2 units to Echo Fox @ +115 even with sub announcement. Like the draft quite a bit.)


(UPDATE 3:  So we get five tiebreakers. I'm taking Echo Fox +120  2 units for the rematch for first.)

(UPDATE 4: Team Liquid ML: -143  5 units. I really think Team Liquid have looked great and while I'm sure C9 will turn things around I think TL have looked better and have side selection. I also think Impact has looked WAY better of late than Licorice.)

(UPDATE 5: Going 5 units on TSM -227. Not a great line value considering how solid I think Clutch Gaming are as a team but I do think TSM have side selection and can really punish Clutch in the draft. Bjergsen is demanding too many bans and I think Hauntzer has enough of an edge over Solo that it's going to be really challenging to Clutch here. TSM have also shown much better tempo play than CG who have been mostly sticking to one playstyle. TSM have multiple outs to win this while CG only have one. As good as Febiven has been, Bjergsen is one of the few mid laners that can match him. TSM also get side selection.)

(UPDATE 6: Going 2 units on Liquid +124. Side selection to take the Ryze or Gangplank from TSM seems quite good. Liquid have elected to take blue. I'm going to be really quick on the trigger finger to hedge this if need be but I like Team Liquid in a best of one like this. It's mostly a line value bet. I think these two teams are more or less even, maybe a slight edge to TSM something like -120 to +101. I'll take the +124)

(UPDATE 7: Adding 2 units to Liquid at +100. I like their Kog draft more even against Zac + Orianna. Sej/Braum can disrupt. I think TL can 1-3-1 OR front to back better than TSM can and Ryze can bridge the gap to the mid/late game for TL. Added a unit each to UNDER 20.5 kills and OVER 36:00 as well @ -116.)

Friday, March 16, 2018

Betting: March 17th (LCK / LPL / TCL / LCL / EU LCS / NA LCS)

LCK March 14th Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-714, -1.5 @ -169, M1 -400, M2 -455, M3 -278)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 16.5)
MVP (+437, +1.5 @ +130, M1 +275, M2 +309, M3 +203)

KT Rolster (-357, -1.5 @ -103, M1 -263, M2 -256, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
BBQ Olivers (+259, +1.5 @ -127, M1 +194, M2 +188, M3 +168)

Afreeca and KT Rolster are both battling for the #2 seed. 

  • Afreeca: 11-4, matches remaining against MVP, BBQ, and KT
  • KT Rolster: 10-5, matches remaining against BBQ, MVP, and Afreeca

If both teams were to 2-0 BBQ and MVP like I expect then Afreeca have both the better game win% and won the first matchup against KT so even with a loss in the final game of the Spring season Afreeca would get the #2 seed but they have to take care of business first. Truthfully, both of these teams need the wins because KSV seems to be heating up only trails them by a single match win. All of this basically means these teams aren't taking these games off and they'll be up for them since there is a lot to play for still. The question is whether or not we think BBQ or MVP can upset.


Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ maps -169 (3 units) 

Prop: Maps 1 and 2 OVER 16.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -122 (1 unit)

BBQ are the bracket destroyers of the LCK but I'm not going to let fear drive this one. Afreeca should crush this match even with MVP looking much better of late. Front runner for Individual MVP this season right now is Kuro and he gets a juicy, all-he-can eat buffet against Ian from MVP. The counter argument here would be that MVP have side choice and technically could still make playoffs but I think Afreeca are just too damn good and need this match, and perhaps as importantly, the 2-0 to potentially lock up their #2 seed before playing KT Rolster in the last match of the season next week.


Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -123 (3 units)

Prop: Maps 1 and 2 OVER 16.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

For a lot of the same reasons as above I like the sweep by KT Rolster as well. If anything they need this even more with KSV suddenly showing signs of life and breathing down their necks. BBQ have been the bracket busters of the LCK but I'm not seeing it here. I think the -123 is a result of KT losing their last two but those were against Kingzone and KSV. Before that they absolutely roflstomped SKT and Kongdoo. I expect them to take care of business against this terrible and inconsistent BBQ squad. The counter argument would be that BBQ are fighting to avoid relegation and could tie for the 8th spot with Jin Air but to me the 9th place team is pretty safe from relegation because they wouldn't have to face Griffin. Regardless I doubt they think that way so I do expect BBQ to be up for this game, just not up to the level of KT.


LPL March 14th Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-357, -1.5 @ -109, M1 -263, M2 -286, M3 -192)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team WE (+256, +1.5 @ -119, M1 +194, M2 +207, M3 +147)

JD Gaming (-123, -1.5 @ +222, M1 -123, M2 -125, M3 -114)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
BiliBili Gaming (-103, +1.5 @ -303, M1 -104, M2 -104, M3 -114)

EDward Gaming (-667, -1.5 @ -169, M1 -400, M2 -455, M3 -263)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
LGD Gaming (+425, +1.5 @ +130, M1 +275, M2 +309, M3 +194)

Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -109 (3 units)

Invictus have been the closest thing League of Legends has to the Golden State Warriors this season absolutely stomping everybody. With only four game losses on the entire season and a single match loss all the way back in very first match they're the creme of the crop in the LPL and it hasn't been particularly close. Team WE on the other hand have a roster full of previous World Championship experience and have been nothing but underperforming all season. This is a roster with enough star power to hang with the best teams in the world merely six months ago but haven't been able to topple any of the stronger LPL teams yet this season. Five of their seven match wins have come against bottom five teams and while they played 1-2 series against a few of the stronger teams like RNG, BBG, and EDG they have only won series against JD and Suning who aren't even on the same level as the elite teams in the LPL. As it stands, WE will likely make the playoffs in the Western Conference but only because the bottom three teams out of seven in that conference are amongst the worst in the entire league and they've been taking care of business against them. 

Unless you believe Invictus will get lazy there's no reason to believe this won't be a 2-0. I'm riding what has become the most surefire thing in League of Legends betting this season and taking Invictus to sweep for three units. I'll probably up this to four or five because -109 is an absolute steal against a Team WE team that isn't quite as good as it's record would show.


Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -103 (4 units)

Prop: Exact Score 2-1 BiliBili Gaming @ +263 (0.5 units)

Prop: Game 3 played YES @  +103 (0.5 units)

This should be a good match. JD are currently out of the playoff picture by a match to Suning Gaming who are 7-6 but the Eastern Conference is a bit stronger than the West. BiliBili hold the fourth seed in the West over a dreadful bottom three and are looking to climb into the #3 spot to avoid a date with Snake eSports. This moneyline should be reversed and perhaps upped. BBG have 2-0's over LGD, TopSports, FunPlus, OMG, and Vici as well as a 2-1 over Team WE but they've also taken games off of RNG and Rogue Warriors and played Invictus is a close 2-0 result last week. Their most recent match as a close, hard fought match against Suning Gaming, a team that measures similarly in strength to JD Gaming, that was a 2-0 but both games lasted more than 42 minutes which is an eternity in the LPL. The catch is that BBG played their substitute jungle and mid lane in game two of this series. BBG's primary way to win games is through their mid laner Athena and they tried a substitution against another Mid+Jungle dominant team in Suning Gaming where H4cker and Knight have been red hot of late. It was a weird move and I'm not sure they'll make the same mistake again. I LOVE BiliBili here for a number of reasons:

  • JD Gaming have a strong mid+jungle combination in Clid and Yagao but their main strength comes from ADC Loken and a lot of their team compositions are build around protecting him. This is a team that's played Galio mid lane 10 times. Their next most played mid lane? Malzahar at 4 picks. 
  • As discussed above, BBG have had much better performances even in their losses against stronger teams. JD on the other hand have been more or less smoked by every "good" team they've faced besides a 2-1 against Suning Gaming and a single game win over Snake. This team has lost 0-2 to Team WE, EDG, RW, and IG, have lost games to FunPlus and Vici.
  • BiliBili have performed better against the Top Four/Five teams. A good performance against Invictus carries a lot of weight to me.
  • BiliBili match up well against JD's strengths and AmazingJ should give them an edge over Zoom from JD. 
  • BiliBili have side selection.
  • Line value seems off. I had this at BBG -150.
These teams have similar records and are in similar places within their conferences, not quite as good as the elite teams but clearly better than the bottom. To me the difference is that BBG have shown better in their losses against elite teams and have some higher impact wins. This line is putting a lot of weight on the record from the past two weeks. BBG have lost their last three matches but those have been against Suning, Invictus, and Rogue Warriors. Invictus are the best team in the LPL and Rogue Warriors you could argue are second or third. JD have won their last two series but they've been against the absolutely terrible OMG and a 2-1 against an improved but still terrible Vici Gaming. Wins over bad teams matter but I'd take a competitive series against elite teams to mean more and that's why I'm slamming this line for value. 


Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -169 (3 units)

EDG haven't been themselves this season but LGD's best player, all-time great and former world champ with Samsung White, Imp who is returning to Korea after years in China. His replacement Fdy has been serviceable in the eight games he's played but he's also only won two of them. For a team who has played for YEARS around their superstar ADC as more or less their only win condition this has to be seen as a downgrade. Now difference between the two is debateable but it's almost definitely a loss. Imp is a very unique player, one you can build around, Fdy I'm not so sure. EDG just came off of a brutal section of their schedule facing Suning, Rogue Warriors, Invictus, JD, and RNG only to lose in embarassing fashion to bottom dwellers TopSports 1-2. They'll be seeking to right the ship here. With LGD's loss and unlikeliness to make playoffs they'll be looking to get some reps with Fdy and look toward their future which means a lot of growing pains and perhaps some experiementing. EDG currently hold the #2 seed in the West but Team WE and BBG are approaching and coming off of difficult schedules themselves so EDG will have some work to do to maintain their lead. They haven't been the most consistent but I feel pretty good about a 2-0 here. 


LCL (CIS Region) Playoffs Schedule March 17th:

RoX (-192, -1.5 @ +113, -2.5 @ +356)

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5, Total Maps Under 3.5 @ +203, Over 3.5 @ -313, Under 4.5 @ -294, Over 4.5 @ +189)

M19 (+131, -1.5 @ +263, +1.5 @ -164, +2.5 @ -667)

Moneyline: RoX -192 (pending)

Handicapped: RoX -1.5 maps @ +113 (1.5 units)

Handicapped: RoX -2.5 maps @ +356 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Exact Score RoX 3-1 @ +264 (0.25 unit)

A little playoff action for us in the LCL already! This is the #2 vs #3 matchup but this league is extremely top heavy with Gambit and RoX being significantly better than the rest of the field similar to the LMS. Gambit and RoX both finished the season 12-2 third place M19 was 8-6 and fourth place Team Just Alpha finished 7-7. Let's take a look at the tale of the tape shall we?

  • RoX: 1910 GPM, 2066 DPM, Gold Differential/min +235, GD @ 15 mins +15, First Blood 47%, First Tower 67%
  • M19: 1781 GPM, 1761 DPM, GD/min +57, GD @ 15 mins -18, First Blood 79%, First Tower: 43%
So M19 have been getting first blood in 79% of their games and only get first tower in 43% of them. That's a huge problem. To me that's a warning sign of inconsistency and shows that they don't know how to run with an early lead and similarly to Vici in the LPL get first blood but don't really know what to do with it. A descrepency that big is a sign of a bad team. If you just look at the economy numbers it's clear that RoX are a stronger team and I have no idea why this isn't closer to a -300 or more moneyline. Those economy numbers compared to the #3 seed shows you just how big of a gap there is between RoX and Gambit and the rest of this league. I expect this to be a stomp and there's a chance I up this in the morning with more thought. The reasoning being that I think even if M19 get a fast start I don't trust them to do anything with it. The moneyline I'm going to wait and see how it moves and make a decision in the morning.


Turkish Champions League Schedule March 17th:

YouthCrew -227 @ HWA Gaming +154
BAU SuperMassive -556 @ Dark Passage +315
Team AURORA -667 @ Galakticos +350
Royal Bandits -175 @ 1907 Fenerbahce +120

Prop: YC @ HWA UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1 unit)

Prop: SM @ DP UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1 unit)

Prop: AUR @ GALAK  UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (2 units)

Prop: Royal @ 1907  UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

I've been destroying it on almost only props in the TCL. Under against Galakticos has been nails and really under in general in the TCL. Dark Passage tends to play loinger games so that could go over but SuperMassive trounced last time.


European LCS March 17th Schedule:

Book is having technical difficulties so no wagers on EU or NA today for me. I like ROCCAT, G2, Clutch, for about 2 units each and Liquid for 1-2 units.


North American LCS March 17th Schedule:

(picks in the morning)