Friday, March 30, 2018

Betting: March 31st (LCK / LPL / LMS / EU LCS / NA LCS)

LCK March 31st Schedule:

SK Telecom (-128, -1.5 @ +210, M1 -130, M2 -130, M3 -114)
@ (Over/Under  36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KSV eSports (+101, +1.5 @ -286, M1 +100, M2 +101, M3 -114)

Moneyline: SK Telecom -123 (2 units)

Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +222 (1 unit) 

I was discussing this on Reddit last night and had the following to say when asked my thoughts on this match:

"Honestly KSV has been my kryptonite all season so take it with a grain of salt. 

Legitimately think most of KSVs wins were derived from catastrophic errors by other teams. Look at their "big" wins or wins against good teams. It was often poor execution by the better team and even then they could sometimes win. This KSV team should be so much better than they are but they just aren't. Their record is deceptive. SKT are also wildly inconsistent but they at least know who they are. 

My brain says 3-2 KSV. Side selection matters but my gut says 3-0 SKT or some SKt win. SKt have embraced ther new identity and I think it's entirely within reason to think they just run this Ksv team over even if they should be worse. KSV have literally shown almost no ability to be proactive and it's frustrating as hell." 

First of all it's funny because seemingly every single season I forget that the first round of the gauntlet is only a best of three. Second of all my thoughts haven't really changed. KSV have been seemingly incapable of creating their own opportunities and have instead relied on other teams mistakes but they rarely even capitalize on those. It's taken CATASTROPHIC mistakes for them to win matches. KSV should be better than they are but they aren't. So why only 3 total units on this game? Because I don't know if they're going to do what they did at Worlds and just show up looking like a different team. I also don't know which lineup SKT is going to run out there.

This is almost purely a gut call besides my observation that KSV is incapable of creating on their own. The new look SKT have been aggressive and willing to take chances so to me this series will either be a close KSV win or an SK Telecom blowout depending on which teams show up. Gut is telling me SKT absolutely run this team over and KSV are exposed for the frauds they are... then again this KSV team has stolen so much money from me that I'm definitely gunshy here. Tail at your own risk.


LMS (Taiwan) March 31st Schedule:

Flash Wolves (-400, -1.5 @ -120, M1 -294, M2 -303, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
J Team (+254, +1.5 @ -119, M1 +199, M2 +217, M3 +199)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -120  (2 units)

For as whacked out as this line is (-400 favorite but even money on the handicaps?) I want to just abuse that +1.5 option but Flash Wolves are simply so much better than this entire league it's not even funny. This is a finals preview in the LMS but I'd have that finals at a 3-0 more than likely. End of season you never know though and I've missed on some LMS picks lately so I'm limiting this to two units. If I had to up one wager tomorrow it'd be this one.

LPL March 31st Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-222, -1.5 @ +144, M1 -179, M2 -182, M3 -179)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Rogue Warriors (+169, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +139, M3 +135)

EDward Gaming (-133, -1.5 @ +210, M1 -130, M2 -130, M3 -123)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Team WE (+105, +1.5 @ -286, M1 +100, M2 +101, M3 -104)

Royal Never Give Up (-588, -1.5 @ -139, M1 -333, M2 -370, M3 -333)
@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 21.5)
LGD Gaming (+392, +1.5 @ +107, M1 +235, M2 +257, M3 +235)

Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ +144  (1 unit)

Rogue Warriors have been quite impressive this season and this could be billed as a juggernaut battle between first and second but I just think Invictus are in a tier of their own in the LPL. The moneyline isn't actually too bad for this game but since RW is pretty good I don't feel like wagering too heavily at -222 when I think there's a decent chance IG drop this series but I don't like the +1.5 odds either. I think the most likely scenario in this match is a 2-1 IG victory but I don't actually think the 2-0 is that far behind it so I'll drop a unit on the sweep. This is two excellent teams with nothing but rivalry to play for as both have locked their #1 and #2 seeds. In games like this I like to avoid going to heavy because you don't know which team will care and which won't. This is driven by rivalry alone and even then there's a chance both teams play this overly conservative or even careless so we'll keep the wager light.


Moneyline: EDward Gaming -133  (2 units)

On paper this should be a really great match. Both of these teams have struggled at time with weaker teams and other middle of the pack teams but have both been on a generally uphill climb after rough starts. The meta just fits EDG a bit better right now. Ray can play his carry tops like Camille and Swain or at least draw big ban pressure on them and EDG have been much better at playing uptempo than Team WE who play their trademark slow and methodical style. This feels like an EDG 2-1 to me but I'll just stick with the moneyline for now and probably live bet this tomorrow.


Handicapped: Royal Never Give Up -1.5 maps @ -139 (3 units)

I know LGD upset JD yesterday but the reason that happened is because JD refused to play uptempo for the first two games which is like avoiding LGD's biggest weakness and then WAY WAY overcorrected in Game 3. RNG isn't going to let that happen. This team is a good amount better than JD and I think they'll absolutely stomp this match. These are pretty great odds for a top four team against a bottom four team.


EU LCS Playoffs March 31st Schedule:

Fnatic (-370, -1.5 @ -204)
@ (Over/Under  36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Team Vitality (+257, +1.5 @ +155)

Moneyline: Fnatic -370  (10 units) 

Prop: Exact Score Fnatic 3-0 @ +143  (2 units)

Prop: Exact Score Fnatic 3-1 @ +188   (1 unit)

We saw yesterday that the elite teams really outclass these flash in the pan squads in best of five series. G2 lost game one and then proceeded to just obliterate Splyce three games in a row. I expect and even less close series here even with Bwipo playing in place of veteran SoaZ. You could make the argument against Fnatic 3-0ing this because of "rookie nerves under the lights" in a big game but Bwipo has been excellent so far and this Fnatic team could quite honestly win this game even if he performs poorly. The rest of the map is so heavily in Fnatics favor that I would trust this to be a 3-1 even if Bwipo is "exposed." I'm so confident in Fnatic that I'm laying 10 units on the moneyline with a rookie starting in the top lane in a playoff match. They're that good and, as we all know, Team Vitality are vastly overrated and predictable. CHOO CHOO! LET'S GO!


NA LCS Playoffs March 31st Schedule:

Echo Fox (-116, -1.5 @ +167)
@ (Over/Under  36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Team Liquid (-109, +1.5 @ -222)

(Update: Line is now FOX +110 / TL -145)

Moneyline: Team Liquid -145  (3 units)

Prop: Exact Liquid 3-2 @ +393 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Liquid 3-1 @ +306 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Echo Fox 3-2 @ +435  (0.5 unit)

This line moved very heavily since it opened at TL -109 so I'm bumping this down a unit but I do feel fairly confident in Team Liquid here. I'm not trying to put too much weight on Echo Fox's weak finish to the season OR Team Liquid's excellent performance last week. Echo Fox didn't really have a lot to play for at the end of the season so it's possible they were just trying not to show anything heading into playoffs so I'm not going to underestimate this team but they've shown a lot of inconsistency. I also think if there is any team that isn't going to cave to Echo Fox's wildly aggressive lane and tempo play it's Team Liquid who play similarly. The real X-factor in this series is Huni. He's a player that can absolutely take over a game and he's one of the best in the world at it in any position. Huni is the only reason I'm not going a little heavier on Team Liquid in this series.

Overall I think Liquid have just been a better overall unit. Fenix hasn't performed well in big games in the past, Impact can play damage control against Huni, and Xmithie can do the same against Dardoch. Bot lane goes to TL although I think Altec and Adrian have been underrated this season. I think this is going to be a really great and explosive series. Both teams are excellent in the uptempo style, have great laners, and have plenty of aggression but I'm siding with Liquid who have side selection, a great read on the metagame, and look like a better overall unit.  I think Team Liquid 3-2 in the most likely and a TL 3-1 is the second most likely.


Thursday, March 29, 2018

Betting: March 30th (LPL / LMS / EU LCS)

LPL March 30th Schedule:

JD Gaming (-233, -1.5 @ +137, M1 -185, M2 -192, M3 -179)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
LGD Gaming (+176, +1.5 @ -179, M1 +141, M2 +146, M3 +135)

BiliBili Gaming (-128, -1.5 @ +222, M1 -123, M2 -125, M3 -123)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 23.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+101, +1.5 @ -303, M1 -104, M2 -104, M3 -104)

Moneyline: JD Gaming -233 (2 units)

Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 @ +137 (1 unit)

This is mostly a line value bet. I think JD have shown enough good games to me against good teams despite their predictable style to make me think they're good enough to sweep this. Both of these teams play a similar style but JD just do it better. I'm not super confident but I like JD for a unit to sweep.


Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -128  (4 units)

Handicapped: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 maps @ +222 (1 unit)

I simply don't understand why people love this FunPlus team so much and why they're so down on BBG. With a sub mid laner and jungler BiliBili were able to take down Snake. Meanwhile FunPlus are doing their best BBQ Olivers impression. They're remarkably inconsistent. BiliBili won the first meeting between these two teams 2-0 and while the "vengeance" factor might kick in I think the same result happens. I'd like BBG to win this whether they used Mole and Chieftan or Sks and Athena in whichever iteration they choose. BBG are a good team with some excellent players and the only thing you can hold against them is that they aren't quite an elite level. FunPlus on the other hand are what I'd consider a "best of the rest" type. I love BiliBili here. A win would put them two games ahead with the tiebreaker and would more or less lock their playoff spot up against a Snake team that suddenly looks a lot less daunting. This is a case of a bad team with a better record than they are and a good team with a slightly worse record which makes them look close to the naked eye. 


LMS (Taiwan) March 30th Schedule:

Flash Wolves (-714, -1.5 @ -169, M1 -417, M2 -400, M3 -370)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
AHQ eSports (+416, +1.5 @ +117, M1 +270, M2 +274, M3 +243)

G-Rex (-294, -1.5 @ +121, M1 -213, M2 -208, M3 -204)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Machi eSports (+189, +1.5 @ -175, M1 +151, M2 +153, M3 +143)

Handicapped: G-Rex -1.5 maps @ +121  (2 units)
This is a bit of a weird spot because both teams are coming in on winning streaks but their most recent matches have been against the bottom of the table. The LMS is extremely top heavy with the Flash Wolves in their own tier above everyone else but G-Rex are pretty clearly the second best team and I think are a tier better than the next best squads like Machi and J Team. For this reason I like the value of the handicap we're getting here at +121. G-Rex absolutely crushed this matchup 2-0 earlier in the season and I think they're a better team than they were then. As a bonus they've been very consistent in not surrendering many games to teams that aren't the Flash Wolves and were also the ONLY TEAM to beat Flash Wolves. If there is a second international quality team in the LMS it's G-Rex and even if I don't quite think they're on that level they're certainly better than the rest of their competition.

EU LCS Playoffs March 30th Schedule:

G2 eSports (-179, -1.5 @ +118, -2.5 @ +314)
@ (Over/Under   36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Splyce  (+138, +1.5 @ -154, +2.5 @ ???)

Moneyline: G2 eSports -179  (4 units)

Handicapped: G2 eSports -1.5 maps @ +118  (1 unit)

Handicapped: G2 eSports -2.5 maps @ +314  (0.5 unit)

Splyce looked great against ROCCAT but I need you to read that sentence back a few times, take a breath, think about it, and then speak again. G2 and Fnatic are, to me at least, MILES AHEAD of the rest of Europe despite the super weird fiasco that was Europe this season that left records quite close. I actually feel fairly confident this will be a 3-1 with Splyce taking a game only to side selection. I think the second most likely outcome here is a G2 3-0. G2 simply outclass Splyce in every position including Splyce's strongest point recently, Odoamne. With a best of five to perhaps wade through some weird support picks from Kasing I just can't see G2 losing this. I might actually up this in the morning so stay tuned. Don't overthink this people. G2 are only going to get better and with time to prep and less "randomness" from the best of one format they'll show the world why they're the only team that can hold a flame to Fnatic in Europe.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Betting: March 28th (LPL)

LPL March 28th Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-5000, -1.5 @ -435, M1 -1111, M2 -1429, M3 -1000)
@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 20.5)
TopSports Gaming (+1552, +1.5 @ +300, M1 +569, M2 +677, M3 +526)

Royal Never Give Up (-213, -1.5 @ +165, M1 -161, M2 -159, M3 -154)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Suning Gaming (+152, +1.5 @ -222, M1 +124, M2 +122, M3 +118)

Moneyline: Royal Never Give Up -213 (4 units)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ +165 (0.5 units)

Suning had a stunning win against the #2 ranked Rogue Warriors Monday and as much as I like this Suning team I need to cast a bit of a wet blanket here. Rogue Warriors drafted a single carry Caitlyn composition. This team has tried this in the past against bad teams but Suning aren't a bad team. For those out of the know, Caitlyn can be a strong late game carry but she can't solo carry like a Kogmaw or a Sivir. It's just a bad idea to have a 1-core. Rogue Warriors tried and failed. They also gave up Swain and had a borderline game ending botched gank in the top lane very early in the game. In game two Suning level one cheesed Flawless in his own jungle and denied him his red as well as killed him which is essentially game over at the professional level against competent teams. 

So a botched gank and terrible draft followed by a really weird level one mind lapse made this 2-0 look more impressive than it actually was. Rogue Warriors are significantly better than this and Suning are a good team that punished the mistakes. The point I'm getting at is not to be overly impressed with the Suning 2-0 over Rogue Warriors. Royal Never Give Up have lost two series in a row to Invictus and JDG. The JDG series was two long, hard fought games that could have gone either way and Invictus is... well they're Invictus. Prior to these two game RNG rattled off 7 match wins in a row. 

While I think these two are closer than outsiders might think, RNG is the stronger squad by a decent amount despite the record. H4cker and Knight have been running wild but I think an uncharacteristically bad series by Doinb and Flawless contributed to that and I think Karsa and Xiaohu are slightly better players even when Doinb and Flawless are playing well. I also think Suning had a good read on the metagame but the rest of the league now has some film to see how they're going to prioritize. I don't like the 2-0 as much here since Suning do have side selection but I like RNG to win this series.


Parlay: Invictus -1.5 @ -435 and RNG -213  (1 unit)

The lines are just too absurd on the IG/TSG series to bet it straight or even with a handicap. If you think TSG can steal a game it's a fine gamble to take since they've randomly stolen games but I'm not touching it other than a parlay for some value.

Friday, March 23, 2018

Betting: March 24th (LCK / LPL / EU LCS / NA LCS)

LCK March 24th Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-345, -1.5 @ -108, M1 -238, M2 -250, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
KSV eSports (+244, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +176, M2 +187, M3 +168)

ROX Tigers (-164, -1.5 @ +179, M1 -147, M2 -152, M3 -141)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Jin Air (+127, +1.5 @ -238, M1 +113, M2 +116, M3 +109)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +108 (2 units) 

I got in on this one at +108 looking ahead on Thursday but the line has since moved to -108. I said it heading into the KSV series the other day but they had a couple of victories handed to them by botched early games by other teams. KSV have struggled to create on their own even against middle tier teams. Kingzone could troll this or try to show a new pick or play Cuzz but I actually think that KSV's late season "run" was more other teams throwing and refusing to take care of Crown's Velkoz. They seem figured out and I think they'll be out in the first round of the playoffs. Part of me also wants this to be a sweep so SKT could potentially backdoor their way into a playoff spot.


Moneyline: ROX Tigers -164 (6 units) (PICK OF THE MONTH)

Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +197 (2 units)

The ROX Tigers are still fighting for the #4 seed and side selection for their first playoff series whether that be against KSV or SKT. They'll be up for this game and unlike a team of complaicent veterans this is a hungry, relatively young team that isn't going to clown around before playoffs. Meanwhile Jin Air have nothing to play for, not even job security except for maybe Grace. As a team their issues were more strategic and coaching issues than the players individually. The only thing Jin Air did wrong this season was play in the LCK. They'd likely stomp most other teams in most regions. I think ROX just need this a lot and take care of business. The moneyline is actually pretty good value now that some money has come in on Jin Air since Thursday when I put this bet in looking ahead.


LPL March 24th Schedule:

Rogue Warriors (-1250, -1.5 @ -233, M1 -526, M2 -667, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
TopSports Gaming (+651, +1.5 @ +172, M1 +348, M2 +402, M3 +275)

BiliBili Gaming (+119, +1.5 @ -256, M1 +109. M2 +111, M3 +104)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team WE (-152, -1.5 @ +190, M1 -141, M2 -145, M3 -135)

Suning Gaming (-526, -1.5 @ -154, M1 -313, M2 -345, M3 -278)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
LGD Gaming (+353, +1.5 @ +113, M1 +223, M2 +243, M3 +203)

Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 @ -233 (3 units)

This is a lot of juice to pay but I think RW will keep rolling along dispatching awful teams like they have been all season. TopSports are one of, if not the worst team in the LPL and RW look like they might be the second best team in the region. Put it in the bank ladies and gents.


Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming +119  (5 units)  (PICK OF THE WEEK)

Prop: Exact BBG 2-0 @ +278 (0.25 unit)

These two teams are pretty evenly matched but to me, this should be the other way around and BBG should be favored even without side selection. Team WE have looked so shaky this season. They've struggled against low and mid tier teams that are worse than BBG and BBG have shown great games against stronger teams than WE. 

  • BiliBili Notable Matches: 1-2 loss to RW, 0-2 loss to Suning (these were really long, close games), 2-1 win against JD. 1-2 loss to RNG (without Uzi), 2-1 win over Team WE. 0-2 to Invictus but the second game was extremely close.
  • Team WE Notable Matches: 1-2 loss to FunPlus (embarassing), 0-2 loss to Invictus (game two fairly close), 2-1 win over LGD (a bad team), 2-1 win over Suning, 2-1 over TopSports (bad team), 2-1 win to FunPlus (bad team), 1-2 vs RNG (with Uzi), 1-2 vs EDG
  • BBG: 1855 GPM, 2060 DPM
  • Team WE: 1842 GPM, 1806 DPM
So they each have good games against good teams but BBG have significantly fewer bad games. Team WE are just so streaky. They can look great but in other games they just roll over and die. I think BBG have a super strong mid+jungle combo in Athena and SkS that could run away with this game. Their bot lane can also match Mystic and whichever support WE decides to play. I perhaps overvalue it but BBG have done significantly more with fewer resources as well. To me this is a matter of line value for two close to even teams as well as BBG showing a bit more strategic versatility in being able to play strong, uptempo compositions well which is how teams beat Team WE. I also think there is a little public bias cooked in here. Team WE have more star names and fan familiarity from Worlds and domestic diehard fans from years ago. I absolutely love the BBG underdog pick. I'm perhaps a bit heavy handed but this has all the makings of a huge pick.


Handicapped: Suning Gaming -1.5 maps @ -154 (2 units)

This feels like it could be a spot for Suning to randomly punt a game to a rebuilding LGD team but they're in a close playoff race and need every win they can get including game wins. I like them for a couple units to take the 2-0.


Parlay: RW -1.5 @ -233, BBG +1.5 @ -256, Suning -1.5 @ -154  (1 unit at +228 total odds)

Favorite heavy slates mean to collect value on parlays when it makes sense to. If you're feeling froggy switch to BBG moneyline instead of the +1.5.


EU LCS March 24th Schedule:

Team Vitality (-185, -1.5 @ +106, -2.5 @ +336)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
H2K (+143, +1.5 @ -137, +2.5 @ -500)

Moneyline: Team Vitality -185 (5 units)

Handicapped: Team Vitality -2.5 maps @ +336 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Exact Team Vitality 3-1 @ +247 (2 units)

So I initially looked at this and thought "man that should be a close, hard fought series that a surging H2K team might pull an upset in." After the Splyce series today and hearing the analysts say they also like H2K I started doing my homework and looking into this matchup and I just can't come up with a logical way for H2K to win this series. As a matter of fact I think it'll be a swift 3-1 or 3-0 for Vitality. Hear me out:

  • Team Vitality excel at uptempo, aggressive plays, the exact thing that H2K have shown an inability to do themselves so this gives Vitality a depth of strategy edge.
  • H2K have more or less only won games by stalling and hoping for opponents to make mistakes. To their credit they've gotten pretty good at this but this H2K lineup is now S6 SK Telecom. Significantly better teams than they have tried this strategy and stolen wins but it's never consistent unless you have elite players which brings me to my next point.
  • SmittyJ is a huge liability and Cabochard, while slightly overrated, is an excellent carry player that is going to demand a lot of draft attention in this series which is a massive edge for Vitality.
  • H2K's main strength is Selfie and Shook who do a good job buying time and controlling the map for Sheriff to carry late. Sheriff has been excellent late game. Their weakness is bottom lanes early presence and more critically, SmittyJ on the whole. 
  • Vitality's strengths are mid + jungle synergy and draft. Jiizuke and Gilius should outperform Selfie and Shook even if it's not by as much as people might think. Vitality's bot lane has been excellent at "cancelling out" the other bot lane by drafting to shove or "not lose." If you consider these points it all comes back to the massive advantage Vitality have in the top lane.
I absolutely love Vitality here and that should mean something coming from the self proclaimed conductor of the "Vitality is overrated" hype train all season. H2K had a nice run and seem to have figured out the proper alignment but I don't see them taking more than a game here. This is a stylistic and personnel matchup nightmare for them and Vitality also get side selection in 3/5 games. I think coach YamatoCannon is a bit overrated but he does draft very well and will almost definitely have a great plan for this series. H2K have been wining by playing very vanilla and stole a few best of ones. Are they better than I thought? Yes but they aren't a good team. Vitality on the other hand is a good but not great team that should take care of business here. Best of One regular season has given us a lot of abnormal playoff scenarios but as you saw today in Splyce/ROCCAT once it comes down to series, the better teams absolutely roll. I expect this to be a 3-1 with Vitality probably dropping a game to a botched snowball and H2K potentially stalling but I don't think it's unreasonable to say 3-0 Vitality. I'm tempted to take the unders on these games as well but I'll think on it more and come back in the morning.


Turkish Champions League March 24th:



NA LCS March 24th Schedule:

Team Liquid (-141, -1.5 @ +141, -2.5 @ +437)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Cloud 9 (+111, +1.5 @ -185, +2.5 @ -714)

Moneyline: Team Liquid -149 (4 units)

Prop: Over 4.5 games @ +192 (2 units)

This is a really tough one to call because I feel Liquid are stronger than they were for a lot of the season and I actually believe Doublelift when he says that "we're better than best of ones show" but I also think Cloud 9 are better than they finished. With that said I'm putting a few units on Team Liquid and here's why.

  • They've shown better uptempo play and the game in its current state favors that.
  • Licorice, while good, hasn't played in a match this important in his career while Impact has played dozens of playoff matches. Impact has also looked in excellent form the past few weeks and will have revenge on his mind from the embarassingly bad game he played against Licorice early in the season (which was perhaps his worst single game in his storied career).
  • As good and underrated as Smoothie is I do think Olleh's pool is absolutely incredible on this patch and he could demand some Morgana bans. It's also an excellent pick into Smoothie's Rakan which could create some interesting draft scenarios. 
  • Jensen vs Pobelter goes in Jensen's favor but I don't think it's a particularly large advantage. If Cloud 9 win it will be because Jensen goes berserk but I think Pobelter can neutralize him for the most part.
Ultimately this match could go either way and I wouldn't fault you for taking Cloud 9, they certainly have more upside as a team in general. I don't want to overrate Cloud 9's slump OR Team Liquid's late game surge but I will put at least some weight on it. If Team Liquid had side selection I'd probably add another unit to this but as it stands I think this goes the distance and Team Liquid break serve at some point for a 3-2 victory.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Betting: March 21st (LCK / LPL)

LCK March 21st Schedule:

KSV eSports (-208, -1.5 @ +144, M1 -179, M2 -182, M3 -161)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+162, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +139, M3 +124)

Kingzone DragonX (-909, -1.5 @ -222, M1 -526, M2 -588, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Jin Air (+519, +1.5 @ +167, M1 +348, M2 +378, M3 +275)

Prop: Exact Score Jin Air 2-0 @ +1428  (0.25 unit)

Prop: Game 3 to be played YES @ +216 (0.5 unit)

The -1.5 @ -222 is a tad rich for me in a game that doesn't really matter for Kingzone who have already locked up the #1 spot. To me theres three ways this goes. 

  • Kingzone play to not reveal anything to anybody, continue playing as if their first seed isn't locked up. If this was the case I'd say this is a 2-0 for them.
  • Kingzone try to highlight a pick to scare other teams with going into playoffs. I think this is less likely because of the long amount of time between the end of the season and the Spring Finals in Korea. It's possible though. If they choose this out then it's possible they drop a game with said pick.
  • Kingzone just pick or play to style on Jin Air and get punished for it. Some of these Jin Air players are playing for jobs against substitutes and practice squad players so their season isn't over. They've also shown some fight against Afreeca and KSV in their previous two matches and while I think Kingzone is on another level I do think it's possible for Jin Air to randomly steal this series if Kingzone decides to goof around too much.
I don't like the cost of betting Kingzone in a match that doesn't really matter to them. If they were still trying to lock up #1 I'd go heavy on the -1.5 @ -222 but they really have nothing to play for here other than momentum and to perhaps show something they want to get banned so it's completely reasonable to think Jin Air could take this. I'm putting a couple lottery tickets down. One on the Jin Air 2-0 and one on the series going to three games.


Handicapped: ROX Tigers +1.5 maps @ -189 (4 units)

Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +435  (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Score KSV 2-1 @ +227  (1 unit)

I want to say KSV have looked more "in form" but the truth is it's just the Velkoz pick for Crown and mistakes from other teams. I think ROX are a better team despite their recent struggles. ROX could actually steal the #4 seed still and a 2-0 would put them ahead of KSV in breaks and tie them in match score with only Jin Air remaining. KSV have to face Kingzone but we're not sure how much KZ will care about that game.

I don't think KSV "are back" like everyone else does. I think they've benefited greatly from botched early games by their opposition and teams refusing to take away or punish the Velkoz. They're the same passive team they've been all year, teams have just gotten a little sloppy against them. ROX aren't a sloppy team. Side selection and KSV's wins not impressing me are what's driving me to think this will be a 2-1 KSV victory but I legitimately think ROX could just win this outright and even sweep. I'll put a unit on the ROX 2-0 because I think this series will end up with the two-faced KSV either not showing up and getting 2-0'd or KSV showing up and having a long, hard fought three game series that could go either way.


LPL March 21st Schedule:

OMG (-132, -1.5 @ +216, M1 -130, M2 -125, M3 -123)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Vici Gaming (+103, +1.5 @ -294, M1 +100, M2 -103, M3 -104)

Snake eSports (-101)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
EDward Gaming (-120, -1.5 @ +234)

Moneyline: Vici Gaming +103  (2 units)

Prop: Exact Score Vici 2-1 @ +278 (0.5 units)

These are two of the worst teams in the LPL but I think Vici are learning their new, aggressive playstyle on the fly and are only going to get better at it (they can't get much worse). Vici 2-0'd LGD two weeks ago and stole a game off of JD in their last match. I'm not saying they're a good team or anything but things are improving ever so slightly.

This is mostly saying that OMG aren't better than anybody and I think Vici can win this one. OMG give up first blood 68% of the time and Vici, while struggling to capitalize, have been getting it in most of their recent games. I think Swift can carry this one. It's a little loose and I don't normally like betting on two bad teams but I'll put a couple units on Vici here. 


Moneyline: EDward Gaming -120 (3 units)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +234 (0.5 units)

Prop: Exact Score EDG 2-1 @ +256 (0.5 units)

This was up on my book early in the day and then down so I don't have all the info in front of me anymore. I think EDG are just slightly better. Their strength of opponent is a lot stronger and they still have a similar record to Snake who have been reeling of late. My one reservation about this match is that Snake match up really well against how EDG like to play. Ray and Flandre are both carry top laners and both teams play well around their star ADCs in Kryst4l and iBoy. Snake 2-0d last time but that was the second match of the season and EDG proceeded to win their next 5 series. Snake got absolutely stomped by RNG and RW in their two most recent matches and while I don't think EDG is on quite the same level I do think they're built similarly. I like EDG to win this 2-1. Scout and Meiko are enough better than their opposition, Ray can play carry into carry against Flandre if it comes to it, and Haro and SofM are relatively even to me. These factors along with side choice and stylistic similarities make me thing this won't be another Snake 2-0 but an EDG 2-0 or more likely a 2-1.

Monday, March 19, 2018

Betting: March 20th (LCK / LPL)

LCK March 20th Schedule:

KT Rolster (-667, -1.5 @ -208, M1 -400, M2 -400, M3 -313)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+430, +1.5 @ +142, M1 +275, M2 +275, M3 +223)

Afreeca Freecs (-323, -1.5 @ -116, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -192)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
BBQ Olivers (+237, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +185, M2 +187, M3 +147)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -164 (3 units) 

I put this in on Sunday night during tiebreakers because I had a feeling this line would drop when people realized what KT do to bad teams. KT also have every reason to go for this as it could be the difference between a second and third seed in the playoff gauntlet. MVP have looked much better and Pilot has really been performing well but this is just a complete mismatch. I expect this to be all business on KT's side and while they might not be in full style mode they should be clean and concise in these. I'm not going to take the under because I think they'll be at least a little bit more careful but I definitely want to. I might actually add on here so stay tuned.


Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ -102  (3 units)

Just like with the KT bet I put this in on Sunday night because I knew this -102 wouldn't hold. With a 2-0 Afreeca can secure their #2 seed regardless of the result of the final match of the season, a showdown with KT Rolster. I expect them to take care of business here against an inconsistent BBQ team. We've been burned by BBQ but I think this is exactly the moment you don't shy away from them. They aren't a good team and have only looked good in seemingly random performances. Afreeca need this to secure a coveted #2 seed so they get to see information out of KT or whoever they end up facing. I also happen to think this is a brutal matchup for BBQ. Kuro is looking like the league MVP and while Tempt has been servicable he doesn't really stand a chance here. Afreeca stomped this match the first time around and that was in the slower Patch 8.2 metagame. I full expect the same thing to happen with the stakes upped.


LPL March 20th Schedule:

Rogue Warriors (-1250, -1.5 @ -263, M1 -588, M2 -556, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
LGD Gaming (+635, +1.5 @ +175, M1 +369, M3 +355, M3 +275)

Royal Never Giveup (-556, -1.5 @ -141, M1 -345, M2 -345, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5)
JD Gaming (+375, +1.5 @ +108, M1 +248, M2 +246, M3 +213)

Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -263 (4 units)

Rogue Warriors are on an absolute tear as SmLz and DoinB dominate their opposition game in and game out. This team has lost a single game in their past nine matches for an impressive 18-1 game record in that time including 2-0 victories over Snake, EDG, and Team WE. These guys are legit. I also happen to be done with my "LGD is better than their record" shpiel. This team just sucks and without Imp I can't see it being better in the short term. Perhaps next split they'll be ok but this team is out of playoff contention and looking toward next split. Rogue Warriors have a chance to keep pace with the seemingly unstoppable Invictus Gaming and keep their two match lead over RNG. In my opinion IG, RW, and RNG are the three best teams in the LPL and are in their own S Tier while Suning, EDG, BBG, and perhaps WE are in the A Tier. This team is dominant and I see no reason not to take the sweep even with this much juice especially because their strongest players will be facing LGD's weakest players in Yuuki and Fdy.


Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -141 (4 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -119 (1 unit)

I was wrong about Snake being close to RNG. With Uzi in the lineup they're simply a completely different team. This is one of the best players of all time and he's still dominant. As a matter of fact I think he's gotten better. JD were good earlier in the season and even took a 2-1 series off of RNG in Week 2 but that was a different RNG roster. After a 4-1 start, JD have dropped six of their last eight with their only wins coming against two of the worst teams in the league in Vici and OMG. Even then they gave a game to Vici. This team lost to FunPlus as well. I've watched most but not all of JD's games and it just seems like they are a one trick squad that got figured out. They've shown nothing but protect the carry style compositions and that's really predictable for other teams to draft against however they choose. They've played a lot of champions but they all accomplish the same thing. With Galio and Zoe nerfed and Azir taken away in about half their matches (47% most of which has been recently) this team appears to be solved and unless they come up with something new they're going to keep losing to all but the worst teams. For added insult, playing protect the carry against one of the best carries the game has ever seen in Uzi isn't going to work. RNG know how to play against it and what it's weak to from years and years of playing that style themselves. RNG are going to run this team over. I'm going to take the Under in both games as well.



I'm going to be playing a suite of parlays on this slate because I strongly believe it will be a four sweep night. I'll be doing different iterations of 2, 3 and 4 way parlays on the sweeps and/or moneylines. I'd encourage you to do the same thing.