March 28th Recap:
LCK: 20 - 7 (+5.427 units)
LPL: 2 - 12 (-1.526 units)
LEC: 3 - 0 (+2.035 units)
LCS: 1 - 23 (-10.825 units)
Live: 1 - 1 (+1.515 units)
Parlays: +1.98 units
TOTAL: 27 - 47 (-1.394 units)
LEC: 3 - 0 (+2.035 units)
LCS: 1 - 23 (-10.825 units)
Live: 1 - 1 (+1.515 units)
Parlays: +1.98 units
TOTAL: 27 - 47 (-1.394 units)
DragonX/Griffin (Net: +3.0)
Gen.G/Afreeca (Net: -0.95)
APK/DWG (Net: +3.377)
Suning/Invictus (Net: -2.356)
Team WE/BiliBili (Net: +2.06)
Victory Five/LGD (Net: -1.23)
Excel/SK Gaming (Net: +2.035)
TSM/100 Thieves (Net: -1.755)
Evil Geniuses/Cloud 9 (Net: -2.92)
Liquid/FlyQuest (Net: -2.295)
CLG/Golden Guardians (Net: -2.22)
Immortals/Dignitas (Net: -1.105)
Horrifying day in the LCS. No words. I knew what I was getting into with TSM and that's what I got for it. Was another huge underdog day but I was on the wrong side of a few and the right side of a few.
Would have been a sick day if we hit anything of our big spots at all in LCS. Oh well, onto the next one.
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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS!
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 6 - Day 5
Hanwha Life +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
T1 -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Hanwha Life got completely destroyed by KT Rolster in their last match. As we mentioned about the DragonX match beforehand, DragonX botched a few plays (rare for them) and it made Hanwha look quite good. I don't think Hanwha are a bad team but they're certainly not good either. T1 are rolling over everything even with sub jungler Ellim in the lineup. DragonX played a close game one against them but that's about it.Griffin, Sandbox, and week one T1, and that DragonX botch. Hanwha have lost every single other series.
You could point to the first meeting between these two way back in week one where Hanwha won 2-1 as a reason to back them but T1 have looked like a completely different team. Revenge on the line, T1 chasing Gen.G for the #1 seed, this matchup isn't close.
T1 have an AMOV of 8.65 but in their last 10 wins they've won by double digits in 7 of those (with an AMOV of 10.3).
Hanwha have an AMOD of 9.94 for the season but in their last ten losses they've lost by an average of 10.0 including double digit losses in their last four losses. In their last 10 losses, Hanwha have also averaged only 5.3 kills in losses. The under kill total for HLE is set at 7.5 kills which would have gone under in 7 of the last 10 losses.
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -152 (0.76 units)
Kill Total: HLE UNDER 7.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -4.5 kills @ -227 (0.227 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.182 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -6.5 kills @ -152 (0.152 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -114 (0.114 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +150 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -10.5 kills @ +195 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -133 (0.665 units)
Kill Total: HLE UNDER 7.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -4.5 kills @ -227 (0.222 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.182 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -6.5 kills @ -147 (0.147 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -110 (0.110 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +157 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -10.5 kills @ +200 (0.1 units)
---
vs
T1 -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Hanwha Life got completely destroyed by KT Rolster in their last match. As we mentioned about the DragonX match beforehand, DragonX botched a few plays (rare for them) and it made Hanwha look quite good. I don't think Hanwha are a bad team but they're certainly not good either. T1 are rolling over everything even with sub jungler Ellim in the lineup. DragonX played a close game one against them but that's about it.Griffin, Sandbox, and week one T1, and that DragonX botch. Hanwha have lost every single other series.
You could point to the first meeting between these two way back in week one where Hanwha won 2-1 as a reason to back them but T1 have looked like a completely different team. Revenge on the line, T1 chasing Gen.G for the #1 seed, this matchup isn't close.
T1 have an AMOV of 8.65 but in their last 10 wins they've won by double digits in 7 of those (with an AMOV of 10.3).
Hanwha have an AMOD of 9.94 for the season but in their last ten losses they've lost by an average of 10.0 including double digit losses in their last four losses. In their last 10 losses, Hanwha have also averaged only 5.3 kills in losses. The under kill total for HLE is set at 7.5 kills which would have gone under in 7 of the last 10 losses.
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -152 (0.76 units)
Kill Total: HLE UNDER 7.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -4.5 kills @ -227 (0.227 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.182 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -6.5 kills @ -152 (0.152 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -114 (0.114 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +150 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -10.5 kills @ +195 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -133 (0.665 units)
Kill Total: HLE UNDER 7.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -4.5 kills @ -227 (0.222 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.182 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -6.5 kills @ -147 (0.147 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -110 (0.110 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +157 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -10.5 kills @ +200 (0.1 units)
---
Sandbox -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
vs
APK Prince (+1.5 @ -167)
Is anybody watching this APK team and thinking they're actually good? I'll admit the coach does a good job in drafts sometimes with some creative curveballs BUT the players on this team are severely lacking. Keine? Wasn't cutting it. Cover? Awful so far (did you see last night?). Ikssu gets some credit by the broadcast when facing other poor top laners or on Ornn but other than that he looks a shell of his former self. Guys... this team blows. Sandbox aren't much better and probably shouldn't be laying this much but they do look a little better since switching off of Summit and OnFleek.
If APK couldn't beat DAMWON last night with how terrible that performance by DAMWON was, I'm not entirely confident they'll beat anyone the rest of the season. This team even looks checked out, almost like they're playing solo queue.
Feels weird but Sandbox should win this in convincing fashion.
APK have an absymal AMOD of 10.17 and have lost by double digits in 13 out of 18 losses including 8 of their last 9.
Sandbox have an AMOV of 9.66.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: SB -1.5 kills @ -208 (0.208 units)
Kill Spread: SB -2.5 kills @ -179 (0.179 units)
Kill Spread: SB -3.5 kills @ -159 (0.159 units)
Kill Spread: SB -4.5 kills @ -135 (0.135 units)
Kill Spread: SB -5.5 kills @ -110 (0.110 units)
Kill Spread: SB -6.5 kills @ +109 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SB -7.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: SB -1.5 kills @ -204 (0.204 units)
Kill Spread: SB -2.5 kills @ -179 (0.179 units)
Kill Spread: SB -3.5 kills @ -156 (0.156 units)
Kill Spread: SB -4.5 kills @ -133 (0.133 units)
Kill Spread: SB -5.5 kills @ -111 (0.111 units)
Kill Spread: SB -6.5 kills @ +111 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SB -7.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
---
Afreeca -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
KT Rolster +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
This is going to be a fun match to watch because both of these teams like playing fast-paced, tempo-focused League of Legends. Last time they met it was a back and forth 2-1 win for KT Rolster where 2 of the games went over but that was also back in week 3 with Soraka and Karthus involved in one of these games.
KT Rolster look really REALLY good. They're really intelligent, experienced, and know their identity. This isn't a fluke run, they're doing a lot of things right. At this point, I've upgraded KT to join Afreeca in the next tier beyond the top three.
I'm going with KT. This is a fairly even matchup IF Afreeca don't draft themselves into a hole and we're getting plus money on a red hot team in a matchup that's somewhat even. Give me an "underdog special" and the under 34:00 for now and once they post kill spreads I'll update this post.
Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -217 (1.085 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster +135 (0.5 units)
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Afreeca -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
KT Rolster +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
This is going to be a fun match to watch because both of these teams like playing fast-paced, tempo-focused League of Legends. Last time they met it was a back and forth 2-1 win for KT Rolster where 2 of the games went over but that was also back in week 3 with Soraka and Karthus involved in one of these games.
KT Rolster look really REALLY good. They're really intelligent, experienced, and know their identity. This isn't a fluke run, they're doing a lot of things right. At this point, I've upgraded KT to join Afreeca in the next tier beyond the top three.
I'm going with KT. This is a fairly even matchup IF Afreeca don't draft themselves into a hole and we're getting plus money on a red hot team in a matchup that's somewhat even. Give me an "underdog special" and the under 34:00 for now and once they post kill spreads I'll update this post.
Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -217 (1.085 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster +135 (0.5 units)
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (0.57 units)
LPL (China)
Week 4 - Day 7
Dominus +543 (+1.5 @ +147)
vs
eStar -1136 (-1.5 @ -207)
vs
eStar -1136 (-1.5 @ -207)
DOM: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
Dominus whooped on a deflated Rogue Warriors dealing with the fallout from the match fixing scandal. Dominus looked much better with Natural in the lineup, big surprise I know. He absolutely bodied Holder and Crazy. Maybe the benching was just what he needed.
Man oh man eStar.... I still think this team is going to get figured out at some point but until they do I'm on board. They're absolutely destroying people. Even if you take out the 35 kill blowout of Invictus from the other night, eStar are winning by an average of 11.46 kills per game, are averaging 18.7 kills per game (21.81 in wins), and have absolutely bonkers damage numbers. That said, their economic stats actually aren't as good as you'd think for a team thats 16-6 but I think we might need to start treating this almost like a running quarterback. The passing stats might not be there but the results can be.
I still think the regression is coming but not against a team liike Dominus.
eStar have covered the implied -8.5 kill spread in 11 of their 16 wins. They've also gone over their team kill total of 17.5 kills in 14 out of 16. The two that didn't cover? 14 and 14. As a matter of fact, eStar have had 12 or more kills in 19 out of 22 games this season. This team is an absolute bloodbath on wheels but it takes two to tango. Dominus haven't held up their end with only 6.83 kills per loss, well below the league average of 8.1 a number they've only gone over 4 times in 12 losses.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: EST -7.5 @ -133 (0.266 units)
Kill Spread: EST -8.5 @ -115 (0.23 units)
Kill Spread: EST -9.5 @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -10.5 @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -11.5 @ +144(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -12.5 @ +170 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -13.5 @ +206 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: EST -8.5 @ -125 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: EST -9.5 @ -106 (0.106 units)
Kill Spread: EST -10.5 @ +113 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -11.5 @ +134(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -12.5 @ +159 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -13.5 @ +192 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EST -14.5 @ +228 (0.1 units)
---
TOP eSports -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
OMG +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
Lineups:
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, Qiuqiu
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
I love both these teams and if I power rated or did a tier list again right now they'd be right next to each other, probably in the 4-6th range. As an added bonus, TOP have figured out that Aphelios is a good champion and that Photic can play it! OMG have an outstanding top trio that I think can actually hang with TOP's.
This is similar to the Afreeca/KT position. Even matchup, give me an "underdog special!"
OMG also take first tower 60% of the time against both good and bad competition so I'll take that on both maps as well.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -234 (1.17 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: OMG +140 (0.5 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Prop: OMG first tower -101 (0.505 units)
Map 2:
Prop: OMG first tower -101 (0.505 units)
---This is similar to the Afreeca/KT position. Even matchup, give me an "underdog special!"
OMG also take first tower 60% of the time against both good and bad competition so I'll take that on both maps as well.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -234 (1.17 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: OMG +140 (0.5 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Prop: OMG first tower -101 (0.505 units)
Map 2:
Prop: OMG first tower -101 (0.505 units)
EDward Gaming +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
Royal Never Give Up -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
I think RNG win this but the value on EDG is too good not to take a shot at. They're a good enough team to take games off of the big boys.The other way to play this is on RNG kill spreads. When RNG win it's decisively. They have a AMOV over 12 while EDG have an AMOD of just over 8. Gonna stick with the mini underdog special.
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -149 (0.745 units)
Moneyline: EDG +180 (0.25 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ 408 (0.1 units)
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Week 9 - Day 2
FlyQuest -350 vs Golden Guardians +236
TSM -193 vs Dignitas +135
Evil Geniuses -167 vs Immortals +118
Cloud 9 -478 vs Liquid +296
CLG +222 vs 100 Thieves -313
The rest of the games I'm holding off on and will either update live or wait depending on the results of these first two because of playoff implications. Look to play kill overs once teams are eliminated or of both teams have secured a position prior to the match starting.
LCS (North America)
Week 9 - Day 2
FlyQuest -350 vs Golden Guardians +236
TSM -193 vs Dignitas +135
Evil Geniuses -167 vs Immortals +118
Cloud 9 -478 vs Liquid +296
CLG +222 vs 100 Thieves -313
Rather light on the LCS slate today since it's really difficult to tell who will be motivated on a final day like this.
FlyQuest/GG
FlyQuest can lock up the #2 seed with a win in the first match of the day so I'd expect them to be prepared for it. They also looked good yesterday and don't appear to be mailing in the final week unlike some of these other teams. Golden Guardians also tend to lose badly when they do lose. Golden Guardians aren't technically eliminated from playoffs. They need to win this and get a few losses from other teams. You can read the tiebreaker rules here.
I'm going with FlyQuest to take care of business here in one of the few postions I'll be on today. I'm also going to be on the over kill total. FlyQuest haven't exactly been a bloody team, neither have Golden Guardians but I think with so much on the line, Golden Guardians are the type of team to desperately throw the kitchen sink at this match while most teams would tighten up and play overly conservative. They have a lot of isolated, sloppy deaths and are usually willing to take fights even if they're bad ones. This will be the bloodiest game on the slate unless playoff implications are decided and we get some "meaningless" matches like we saw in LEC yesterday.
FlyQuest AMOV = 9.44 kills
GG AMOD = 11.55 kills
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -3.5 kills @ -192 (0.192 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -4.5 kills @ -167 (0.167 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -5.5 kills @ -143 (0.143 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -6.5 kills @ -125 (0.125 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -7.5 kills @ -102 (0.102 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -8.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -9.5 kills @ +146 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -10.5 kills @ +176 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -11.5 kills @ +211 (0.1 units)
TSM/Dignitas
Dignitas and Immortals played a slugfest yesterday that Dignitas came out on top of but there were a lot of mistakes by both squads in this game. TSM also played one against 100 Thieves. TSM let us down badly yesterday and have mostly gone 2-0 or 0-2 on weekends this season but I think TSM are the side here. While Dignitas were resilient yesterday I think there was more bad to take away from that game than good. TSM had a decent snowball going and just got outscaled by Aphelios+Ornn
TSM should smash this game (sounds familiar right?)
Prop: TSM first blood @ -149 (0.745 units)
Prop: TSM first to 5 kills @ -149 (0.745 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -0.5 kills @ -217 (0.217 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -1.5 kills @ -196 (0.196 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -2.5 kills @ -175 (0.175 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -3.5 kills @ -156 (0.156 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -4.5 kills @ -137 (0.137 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -5.5 kills @ -116 (0.116 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -6.5 kills @ +105 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -7.5 kills @ +127 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -8.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -9.5 kills @ +183 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -10.5 kills @ +217 (0.1 units)
FlyQuest/GG
FlyQuest can lock up the #2 seed with a win in the first match of the day so I'd expect them to be prepared for it. They also looked good yesterday and don't appear to be mailing in the final week unlike some of these other teams. Golden Guardians also tend to lose badly when they do lose. Golden Guardians aren't technically eliminated from playoffs. They need to win this and get a few losses from other teams. You can read the tiebreaker rules here.
I'm going with FlyQuest to take care of business here in one of the few postions I'll be on today. I'm also going to be on the over kill total. FlyQuest haven't exactly been a bloody team, neither have Golden Guardians but I think with so much on the line, Golden Guardians are the type of team to desperately throw the kitchen sink at this match while most teams would tighten up and play overly conservative. They have a lot of isolated, sloppy deaths and are usually willing to take fights even if they're bad ones. This will be the bloodiest game on the slate unless playoff implications are decided and we get some "meaningless" matches like we saw in LEC yesterday.
FlyQuest AMOV = 9.44 kills
GG AMOD = 11.55 kills
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -3.5 kills @ -192 (0.192 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -4.5 kills @ -167 (0.167 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -5.5 kills @ -143 (0.143 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -6.5 kills @ -125 (0.125 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -7.5 kills @ -102 (0.102 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -8.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -9.5 kills @ +146 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -10.5 kills @ +176 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -11.5 kills @ +211 (0.1 units)
TSM/Dignitas
Dignitas and Immortals played a slugfest yesterday that Dignitas came out on top of but there were a lot of mistakes by both squads in this game. TSM also played one against 100 Thieves. TSM let us down badly yesterday and have mostly gone 2-0 or 0-2 on weekends this season but I think TSM are the side here. While Dignitas were resilient yesterday I think there was more bad to take away from that game than good. TSM had a decent snowball going and just got outscaled by Aphelios+Ornn
TSM should smash this game (sounds familiar right?)
Prop: TSM first blood @ -149 (0.745 units)
Prop: TSM first to 5 kills @ -149 (0.745 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -0.5 kills @ -217 (0.217 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -1.5 kills @ -196 (0.196 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -2.5 kills @ -175 (0.175 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -3.5 kills @ -156 (0.156 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -4.5 kills @ -137 (0.137 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -5.5 kills @ -116 (0.116 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -6.5 kills @ +105 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -7.5 kills @ +127 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -8.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -9.5 kills @ +183 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -10.5 kills @ +217 (0.1 units)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): TSM first blood + FlyQuest -6.5 kills @ +201 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): Map 1 T1 -7.5 kills + Map 1 eStar -7.5 kills @ +187 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): Map 1 T1 -7.5 kills + Map 2 eStar -7.5 kills @ +185 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): Map 2 T1 -7.5 kills + Map 2 eStar -7.5 kills @ +192 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): TSM first blood + FlyQuest -6.5 kills @ +201 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): Map 1 T1 -7.5 kills + Map 1 eStar -7.5 kills @ +187 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): Map 1 T1 -7.5 kills + Map 2 eStar -7.5 kills @ +185 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): Map 2 T1 -7.5 kills + Map 2 eStar -7.5 kills @ +192 (0.25 units)
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