March 14th: LPL, LCS

March 13th Recap:

LPL: 5 - 0 (+4.39 units)
LEC: postponed

TOTAL: 5 - 0 (+4.39 units)

I don't know what Vici's bottom lane was doing in that series but it might help to watch the map and not take all-in's when your laners are in base. WE look sharp but this also sort of looked like a really off or weird day from Vici. FunPlus dominated Dominus in dominant fashion as expected. OMG won with two distinctly different flavors of composition and absolutely dominated Rogue Warriors. While RW didn't look great it's hard to tell if it's just OMG being good, something to think about.

The LEC postponed at the last minute without warning and released a statement you can find on their official twitter.



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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)

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LPL (China)

Week 2 - Day 6

Victory Five +692 (+1.5 @ +197)
vs
JD Gaming -1961 (-1.5 @ -287)

Lineups:
V5: Aliez, As6, Mole, y4, clx
JDG: 705, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao


JDG deserve to be favored by this much. Victory Five look awful. Not like bad relative to Victory Five, I'm talking downright putrid. I'm actually going to lay the 287 on JDG as insane as that sounds. Victory Five aren't a professional caliber team at this point.

Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -287 (2.87 units)


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eStar Gaming -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
vs
EDward Gaming +172 (+1.5 @ -181)

Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
EDG: Xiaoxiang, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko


This line varies highly depending on where you look. I've seen as high as +201 and as low as +160 on EDG's side. As bad as they looked with the substitute jungler and as good as eStar have looked, I'm somewhat tempted if I can get closer to that +200 range. EDG still just have a few absolute stud players in Scout and Meiko, I'm just not sure they're going to be enough. I'm going to pass on this one for now and see where this line moves.

No wager

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Suning Gaming +197 (+1.5 @ -167)
vs
BiliBili Gaming -287 (-1.5 @ +118)

Lineups:
SN: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
BBG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo

These two teams are kind of in a weird spot because neither have looked bad. Some people might point to the loss to LNG as a bad one for BiliBili but LNG showed us a really high level series earlier this week against OMG who people are starting to recognize as good. Use the eye test and ignore expectations early like this. Suning are a harder read since they just whooped on an EDG team without a few starers and a literal brand new jungler import. Also, their loss to eStar who look better than most people anticipated looks a lot less bad now than it did before the hiatus.

I actually think Suning are better than we've seen so far although I don't think they're quite to the level of BiliBili. That said, this line is too far out of whack and should be closer to even money. The underdogs have covered the spread 17 out of 28 attempts this season, won outright 11 times, and 2-0'd 5 times. Only 12 out of 28 matches this season have gone the full three games. 

BiliBili are almost certainly the better team but I think this series should be competitive. I've been doing well with the "three game special" or underdog spread plus portion of those winnings on the underdog moneyline this season but we're going to split our action a bit differently this time since I'm fairly confident Suning take a game but less confident about a full series. Because of this we'll be on the OVER 2.5 instead of taste of the moneyline but to each their own.

Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -167 (0.885 units)

Map Total: OVER 2.5 maps @ +118 (0.5 units)

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Other Leagues

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LEC (Europe)

Postponed until further notice

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LCS (North America)

Week 8 - Day 1


Postponed until further notice

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Parlays:

none for now