Tuesday, March 17, 2020

March 18th: LPL

March 17th Recap:



LPL: 2 - 0 (+2.0 units)


TOTAL: 2 - 0 (+2.0 units)


NEWS: 
We'll be getting back LEC and LCS THIS WEEKEND via online matches. Instead of Monday Night League they're shifting both Monday matches into the normal schedule so it'll be just like it's been for years with 5 games Saturday and 5 games Sunday. For Europe it will be the same 5 games Friday, 5 games Saturday. We're BACK IN ACTION LETS GOOOO!


While we didn't go the full distance and take Rogue Warriors as big dogs, we did take the map spread and cashed on it. It didn't quite go exactly like I thought it would but as predicted, EDG are still figuring out some things with this new lineup. In a weird way, this was a positive series for both teams even though EDG lost as big favorites. We also learned a lot from it. Xiaoxiang was thought by many to be permanently on utility and tank duty and pulled out the Fiora in this contest to show a completely different look. Not only that, but he delivered completely smashing Crazy, who has had some good performances this season so far. Rogue Warriors also showed that they don't always need to be a strictly tempo based team and won a back and forth game three in the late game against EDG who also had a mid to late scaling composition.

Team WE put up a fight in game one and actually had a decent advantage on FunPlus but they weren't able to get ahead enough to outpace Doinb on the ever terrifying late game hypercarry that Kassadin is. Game two was a bit more competitive early before FunPlus pulled away with Doinb on Azir of all things. This is a new look for FunPlus. They're adapting to the metagame, playing slow, controlled League of Legends. The reigning World Champs are somehow evolving to improve and have even more weapons in their arsenal. That's nightmarish for the rest of the world. FunPlus have that vibe of the old SK Telecom dynasty teams. No lead is safe, no fight is guaranteed to be a win, and they have some new found unpredictability on top of it all. I'll just say our FunPlus futures are looking mighty fine right now.

If you haven't checked it out yet, my co-host John George (@TheESportsPlug) was on RotoGrinders' Morning Grind Podcast with StevieTPFL to talk League of Legends DFS which has blown up in popularity with the lack of traditional sports right now. I'd highly encourage checking it out and keep your eyes and ears out for another episode featuring yours truly sometime soon (like tomorrow maybe).


--------------------------

The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top! 

--------------------------

CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!

Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!

-------------------------

(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


------------------------




LPL (China)


Week 3 - Day 3

LNG eSports -535 (-1.5 @ -141)

vs
Victory Five +329 (+1.5 @ -102)

Lineups:

LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
V5: Aliez, As6, Mole, y4, clx

I guess I'm not that surprised that Light is getting the start over Asura here but for those looking into your DFS lineups don't forget to switch them out. I don't really think this impacts my thoughts on this matchup too much. y4 and clx have been able to jump out to leads a couple times and just do absolutely nothing with it. Victory Five are probably the worst team in the league and LNG have actually looked pretty sharp since returning from the break. 


The books seem to be pricing LNG like last years LNG team and this squad is definitely better. They have really quick decision making, appear to understand how to play uptempo and snowball an advantage when they have one, and don't entirely shy away from playing a scaling composition either. They're a well-rounded, quality middle of the table team that has a decent shot at a playoff spot. I expect LNG to roll here and I really doubt we're going to see this kind of pricing against Victory Five moving forward.

Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ -141 (2.82 units)

---



Vici Gaming +172 (+1.5 @ -181)

vs
TOP eSports -260 (-1.5 @ +123)

Lineups:

Vici: Cube, Chieftain, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, Yuyanjia


This matchup is fascinating primarily because both of these teams have massively underperformed public expectations. I'm optimistic both of these teams "figure it out" but the question is when and to what extent. 


From everything I've been able to extract from reviewing TOP's tape, they have the right idea conceptually, have moved all the pieces into their proper place, and have just failed to execute a few times. As I've discussed a number of times already this season, the current state of the game makes it very easy to look stupid because mistakes are amplified more than they usually are. More often than not, it's a minor mistake that leads to a major advantage so we tend to blow things out of proportion. We came to expect a certain level of excellence from TOP and they haven't met that expectation they've laid down over the past year. I think TOP are going to improve and when it happens I won't be the one that's surprised. These are really easy things to point to and correct, they simply need to not operate on auto-pilot as if Xx was still their jungler. If Karsa, 369, and Knight can start effectively communicating the execution will improve and suddenly a lot of these stupid looking mistakes will turn into cleanly executed plays and snowballed advantages. 

Simply put, TOP are too good to continue performing this poorly.

Vici are similarly perplexing but I think they've shown a lot more holes in the armor. Questionable drafts about every third game or so, difficult to execute compositions, and Cube needing to develop another champion or two are the main concerns I have with this squad. There's a chance it's just going to take some time to put coach Kkoma's system and style into place in a new region with players that have a completely different mentality but it's not quite happening yet. All that said, Vici have shown a lot of good things and against good opponents too. 

I'm going with TOP to sweep this series. They're a much better team that's just off to a weird start. This match should be a reminder of that. As mentioned earlier, I do think both of these teams are going to be better than we've seen so far almost definitely but TOP still project like a top five or six team to me. Their mistakes have looked a lot worse than they actually are and when I see the foundation for things to come I tend to side with it because it's repeatable. Vici's problems are more conceptual while TOP's problems are more execution based and when you have top notch players I'd expect the execution to improve before the conceptual issues. There's also the added boost of TOP coming off of an embarassing loss as extra motivation. 

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)

---


BiliBili Gaming +296(+1.5 @ -123)

vs
JD Gaming -478 (-1.5 @ -123)

Lineups:

BBG: ADD, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
JDG: 705, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao

ADD returns to the top lane for BiliBili. While I don't think Kingen was the problem specifically this does feel somewhat like it was due to happen. It has a real "get the band back together" vibe to it right? BiliBili are yet another team that I think will be just fine, particularly if teams need to throw some respect on the top lane in the draft. ADD has some niche champion picks that have been problematic for his opposition over the years. Maybe he's even got something new cooked up after spending some time in the training chamber all season long. 

JDG are coming off of a bizarre series against Vici in which they impressed and disappointed me. Impressive was their ability to navigate through losing situations and an inferior draft. Disappointing were some of the situations that they got themselves into within games in this series. I'm nitpicking but it's only because I think JDG are an elite team, but similar to a lot of the top LPL teams over the years, their preparation and approach to a game from a strategic standpoint can be flawed. This puts them into situations where they'd lose games against vastly inferior teams. It's the good LPL team special! While I don't think you ever want to be doing this sort of thing and that it can lead to losses more often than you'd want, they can also play their way out of a paper bag more often than a lot of teams so it somewhat balances out.

JDG are the better team overall but I think this is a tremendous spot for BiliBili. Teams have been able to attack Meteor in the draft with bans because they haven't had to throw more than the basic Ornn bans at the top lane all season long. Kingen isn't a bad player but he doesn't really bring any plus characteristics to the table. ADD is not only an in-game leader, but is able to play both strong and weakside and has some niche champions to respect as we mentioned earlier. There is also the added bonus that new top laner 705 has never faced the grisled veteran before. We're getting great value on BiliBili in this spot because of their poor start and public perception. 

Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -120 (2.40 units)(5Dimes)

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming +300 (1 unit)(5Dimes)

Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +665 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)

------------------------





Other Leagues



none yet



--------------------


Parlays:

Parlay (3): LNG -1.5 + BiliBili +1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +480 (0.5 units)

No comments:

Post a Comment