March 28th: LPL, LCK, LEC, LCS

March 27th Recap:

LCK: 9 - 5 (+1.146 units)

LPL: 12 - 18 (+2.7335 units) 
LEC: 9 - 13 (-2.252 units)
Live: 1 - 1 (+0)

TOTAL:31 - 36 (+1.6275 units)

KT/Hanwha (Net: +1.396 units)

Griffin/Sandbox (Net: -0.5 units)

T1/DragonX (Net: -0.75 units).

OMG/FunPlus (Net: +0.934 units)

eStar/LNG (Net: -0.4units). 

JDG/RNG (Net: +2.1995 units)

Rogue/SK Gaming (Net: -2.536 units)

Misfits/Vitality (Net: +0 units)

Schalke/G2 (Net: -0.25 units)

Origen/Excel (Net: +0.784 units)

Fnatic/MAD Lions (Net: -0.25 units)

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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS! 

They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.

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The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top! 

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)

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LCK (Korea)

Week 6 - Day 4

APK Prince +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
DAMWON Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)

I know DAMWON have looked really bad and haven't made adjustments but I sort of just feel like this is going to a be a matter of APK not having the horses to race here. The one thing DAMWON still have is good individual players. APK can get cheesy in the draft all they want but DAMWON are going to make you outplay them. I actually love the DAMWON sweep here and I didn't think I'd say that at any point this season.

APK are losing by an average of 10 kills per game in losses

DAMWON are winning by an average of 7.5 kills per game in wins

DAMWON almost lost game one of the first series before turning it around with a crazy backdoor. Game two was complete destruction. I'll take the all the DAMWON I can get my hands on and the map spread.


Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -101 (1.01 units)

Map 1: 
Prop: DAMWON OVER 13.5 total kills @ -102 (0.51 units)
Prop: DAMWON first to 5 kills @ -161 (0.805 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -4.5 kills @ -159 (0.159 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -5.5 kills @ -132 (0.132 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -6.5 kills @ -102 (0.102 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -7.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -8.5 kills @ +167 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -9.5 kills @ +215 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -10.5 kills @ +275 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -11.5 kills @ +349 (0.1 units)

Map 2:
Prop: DAMWON OVER 13.5 kills @ -116 (0.58 units)
Prop: DAMWON first to 5 kills @ -161 (0.805 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -4.5 kills @ -156 (0.156 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -5.5 kills @ -132 (0.132 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -6.5 kills @ -101 (0.101 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -7.5 kills @ +129 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -8.5 kills @ +162 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -9.5 kills @ +206 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -10.5 kills @ +261 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DAM -11.5 kills @ +327 (0.1 units)

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Gen.G -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
vs
Afreeca +236 (+1.5 @ -141)

I always like Afreeca as a "punch up" underdog. The all-in early style they prefer to play is just going to allow them to take games from the big dogs. Afreeca got one the last time around. As good as Gen.G are I like Afreeca to at least take a game here and maybe spike the whole series. This team is talented, don't overreact to the poor showing the other night that was almost entirely on the draft (Lucan vs Azir and other things).

Gimme an underdog special!

I'm not messing with kill spreads in this spot for Afreeca. When they lose they lose big and Gen.G tend to win cleanly when they do. If Afreeca are going to win this I'll just stick to the straight up.

Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -120 (0.6 units)
Moneyline: Afreeca +260 (0.25 units)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +509 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)

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DragonX -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
vs
Griffin +395 (+1.5 @ +118)

Griffin looked great in their first game and a half but ended up losing the series anyway. That game one was probably their best of the season. Is it a sign of things to come or a flash in the pan? It's got to be demoralizing losing after a showing like that. DragonX are coming off of a disappointing loss to Hanwha and an extremely difficult opponent in T1. DragonX played a very close game one against T1.

Long story, short, I think DragonX are one of the elite three teams and people are going to be off of them because they've lost two in a row. Expect a get right spot here. DragonX are going to smash.

Spread: DragonX -159 (3.18 units)

Map 1:
Prop: DRX first to 5 kills @ -179 (0.895 units)
Map 2:
Prop: DRX first to 5 kills @ -179 (0.895 units)

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LPL (China)

Week 4 - Day 6

Victory Five +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
LGD Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)

Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, Y4, Max
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua

As bad as Victory Five are, they are really cheesy and, more importantly, LGD don’t deserve to be laying -345 to anybody.

Spread: Victory Five +1.5 maps @ -123 (1.23 units)

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Team WE -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
BiliBili Gaming +123 (+1.5 @ -234)

Lineups:
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo

I made this my pick of the week on The Gold Card Podcast. BiliBili are significantly better than their record and have run into a brutal schedule to start the season off. Team WE have been pretty good even after switching to a new starting mid laner. They haven’t shown it yet because of the schedule and some sketchy drafts but I’m confident BiliBili are a better team. The value here is also tremendous. 

Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -210 (2.1 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili +131 (1 unit)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)

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Suning Gaming +444 (+1.5 @ +135)
vs
Invictus Gaming -885 (-1.5 @ -193)

Lineups:
SN: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind

This is an interesting spot. I typically love betting underdog +1.5's against Invictus because of the constant skirmishing style they like to play and they frequently disrespect their opponents. The thing is, Invictus are coming off of an embarassing loss to eStar.I want to bet the bounce back but I cant say no to the value in Suning in this spot. Suning is a good team and we're getting this kind of number against a highly variant Invictus squad? I'll take it.

Leyan starting makes this even more appealing, especially game one. I'm going to attack the game one spreads. Leyan isn't bad but Invictus haven't looked nearly as sharp with him in the lineup. They keep trying and it continues to just not work as well. I could see Invictus dropping game one, subbing in Ning, and winning this series.

Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ +135 (1 unit)(Nitrogen)
Map: Suning +458 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
Map Moneyline: Suning Map 1 +277 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)

Map 1:
Kill Spread: SN +4.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN +5.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN +6.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN +7.5 kills @ -112 (0.112 units)
Kill Spread: SN +8.5 kills @ -128 (0.128 units)
Kill Spread: SN +9.5 kills @ -147 (0.147 units)
Kill Spread: SN +10.5 kills @ -169 (0.169 units)



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LEC (Europe)

Week 9 - Day 2


Rogue -260 vs Schalke +172
Excel -287 vs SK Gaming +197
MAD Lions +172 vs Origen -260
Vitality +642 vs Fnatic -1667
G2 eSports -422 vs Misfits +271

Really tough to tell how motivated these teams are going to be so I'm going to be very light on the European slate today. There's also a few favorites that I think could lose but the value on the underdogs isn't quite enough (Schalke, MAD)

I'm taking a shot on SK Gaming. Excel tend to play really weird games and their margin of victory has been really low this split at 5.4. Neither team has anything to play for and it's the last day. I could see some real fiesta potential in this game.

Moneyline: SK Gaming +207 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: SK Gaming +6.5 @ -137 (0.685 units)
Total Kills: OVER 22.5 @ -147 (0.735 units)

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LCS (North America)

Week 9 - Day 1

TSM -181 vs 100 Thieves +123

Evil Geniuses +222 vs Cloud 9 -313

Liquid -141 vs FlyQuest -102

CLG +118 vs Golden Guardians -167

Immortals -181 vs Dignitas +123

TSM/100T:

I wrote a more detailed analysis of this over on The Action Network. Long story short, I don't think TSM experiment in this game and the way 100 Thieves has been winning is through individual laners doing well which won't be nearly as easy against TSM as it has been against their last handful of opponents.

TSM have an 81% first blood rate, implied odds on it are a little over 61%. TSM have won by at least 7 kills in all but one win this season (that one was by 5) and double digit kills in five of their nine wins. Six out of TSM's nine wins have also been under 34:00. Typically when they win it's because they snowball their early game.

This is a lot of exposure on one game. I'm supremely confident in TSM in this spot. I rarely have this much on a single best of one. Feel free to adjust to your risk tolerance.

Prop: TSM first blood @ -159 (1.59 units)
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -4.5 kills @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -5.5 kills @ +109 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -6.5 kills @ +132 (0.5 units)

Evil Geniuses vs Cloud 9:

I wrote a more detailed analysis of this over on The Action Network as well. Long story short, EG finally look like what they were expected to look like before the season began and there's a very high likelihood that Cloud 9 experiement in this spot. Even though C9 haven't really done a lot of that, and even though they could probably still win while experiementing, I think the likelihood of it happening alone boosts EG's chances to win this game. I like EG at this number even without considering that lack of implications for Cloud 9.

Conspiracy theory/narrative: Cloud 9 might WANT Evil Geniuses to win here if they'd rather face them than TSM or FlyQuest. 

It's often overexaggerated and I don't always buy into these theories but keep an eye on the previous game. If TSM lose, I'd hammer Evil Geniuses here.If I'm Cloud 9 I would definitely rather face EG or FlyQuest than TSM.

Narrative aside, I still like this spot, that's just a little icing on the cake if you're into that sort of thing. 


Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +222 (1 unit)
Prop: EG first blood @ +115 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: EG +3.5 kills @ +192 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +4.5 kills @ +156 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +5.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +6.5 kills @ -101 (0.505 units)
Kill Spread: EG +7.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)

Team Liquid/FlyQuest:

I wrote a more detailed analysis of this over on The Action Network as well.

This is honestly 2/3 strategic/stylistic mismatch of Liquid's strong early game (when they want it...) vs FlyQuests weak early game and 1/3 gut feeling. I can't see Liquid losing this match. Another week together, another week to learn from drafting mistakes. Maybe I'm naive but I'm willing to go down planting my flag on this team. 

Besides Cloud 9's one loss, FlyQuest have the highest margin of defeat in the LCS at 11.66 and a similarly low kills per loss at 5.8. When FlyQuest lose they lose bad. I like this team but I can see that happening here.

Prop: FlyQuest UNDER 8.5 kills @ -106 (0.53 units)
Moneyline: TL -141 (0.705 units)
Kill Spread: TL -3.5 kills @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Spread: TL -4.5 kills @ +100 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: TL -5.5 kills @ +120 (0.5 units)

CLG/Golden Guardians:

I know Golden Guardians aren't mathematically eliminated but CLG have looked better in recent weeks and don't appear to care that they're eliminated. A team with nothing to lose is scary, especially to a team that isn't that good to begin with like Golden Guardians. I love CLG outright in this spot.

Golden Guardians have only won by 7 or more in two wins. CLG the "bloodiest losers" leading the league in kills per loss at 8.38. If I like CLG outright AND we have a severe mismatch in terms of covering kill spreads, I like it even more. I'm wanted to aggressively attack that market but since the offerings are limited I'll diversify on the CLG spread offered instead of the moneyline because I like them outright.

Prop: Golden Guardians UNDER 12.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)
Kill Spread: CLG -0.5 kills @ +137 (1 unit)

Immortals/Dignitas

These teams have been streaky but I think Immortals have been the better team over the course of season. They have advantages in every position besides ADC and the current patch meta-game fits their roster construction and players very well.

Immortals have an AMOV of 6.1 kills, Dignitas have an AMOD of 9 kills. Dignitas have just a single loss of six kills or less, a punted lead against 100 Thieves.

I like Immortals to win this match, cover the small kill spread, and secure a playoff berth.

Kill Spread: IMT -2.5 kills @ -128 (0.32 units)
Kill Spread: IMT -3.5 kills @ -114 (0.285 units)
Kill Spread: IMT -4.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: IMT -5.5 kills @ +126 (0.25 units)

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Other Leagues

none yet

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): 
DAMWON map 1 -7.5 kills + DRX map 1 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 
DAMWON map 2 -7.5 kills + DRX map 1 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 
DAMWON map 1 -7.5 kills + DRX map 2 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 
DAMWON map 2 -7.5 kills + DRX map 2 first to 5 kills @ +243 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): 

TSM -4.5 kills + Liquid -3.5 kills @ +252 (0.25 units)

Parlay (3): 
TSM -4.5 kills + Liquid -3.5 kills + EG +7.5 kills @ +547 (0.1 units)

For fun:
Saturday LCS Kill Spread Exacta Parlay (5):
TSM -4.5 + EG +7.5 + TL -3.5 + CLG -0.5 + IMT -3.5 @ +2781 (0.1 units)