March 25th Recap:
LCK: 5 - 9 (-0.5185 units)
LPL: 11 - 15 (-1.067 units)
Parlays: 0 - 2 (-0.5 units)
TOTAL: 16 - 26 (-2.0855 units)
Parlays: 0 - 2 (-0.5 units)
TOTAL: 16 - 26 (-2.0855 units)
Limited time for next few days so reviews shorter.
Wanted to briefly touch on the elephant in the room which is the WeiYan match fixing scandal. This isn't the first in China. Last year, Team WE had to release Condi but in that situation it had been going on for a long time and he was under pressure from outside sources. This one we don't know the full details about yet. It's just a shitty look for the whole scene because now anytime something sketchy looking happens the conspiracy theorists step out of the woodwork and they're completely justified in doing so. I've had times in the past, as recently as last Summer, where I "swear the LPL is fixed" and it turns out, sometimes it is. I do think this was just one bad egg. The LPL went a number of years without any issues (that we know of...) it's just rough that we've had them both within the same 9 month span.
Been a crazy few days but considering the upsets that have happened it's looking like our high volume, diversified approach is somewhat working. The idea behind this is to attempt to extract value from bigger favorites by sniping better odds and not laying -250 for what are likely situations to begin with. I'm doing this by spreading, for example, a one unit on a moneyline or a spread over the kill spreads and other prop markets in an effort to get better odds. It's a lot more work but I think in the long run it's going to be profitable even though we've had a few rough days.
Six game slate let's have some fun one sentence summaries!
OMG vs V5:
"If V5 can't win with a lead and this comp then they aren't winning more than Victory Five game wins the rest of the season."
JDG vs TOP:
"JDG can really fight their way out of so many situations it's impressive... but so can TOP who look incredible."
FPX vs BiliBili:
"BiliBili showed up to play and look like they're ramping into form for the rest of the season."
Griffin vs Gen.G
"Griffin didn't fix any of their problems and this is why coaching matters way more than people give credit for."
KT vs DAMWON
"Same old KT, Same old DAMWON."
Hanwha vs DragonX
"DragonX botched that bottom lane dive in game two, two different times and appeared to be fully tilted for the rest series. They were running train otherwise."
(two sentences I know...)
In good news, DRX looked fine this was just a few weird plays that got away from them. We'll hopefully collect some value next time out.
The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS! They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Going into yesterday, underdog spreads were one of the more profitable positions to have this split. If you were to have wagered blind, for the same amount of every single underdog spread this season, you would have had a +7.4% profit and that's just taking lines from one book. Looked to be the case again yesterday with 2 out of 3 underdog spreads covering.
Week 6 - Day 2
DAMWON +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
Gen.G -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
Both of these teams are coming off of matches last night which is interesting and that's going to be something we see more with the condensed schedule. I wonder how it's going to turn out.
DAMWON have a lot of the same problems they've been having. They're handicapped by their own stubbornness and because they haven't been flexible in the past, they're going to struggle if they ever do choose to adapt. Gen.G look like they haven't missed a beat. This team is really really good. It was against Griffin and all but I'm going to take the Gen.G spread and kill spreads here. They should punish DAMWON hard.
Gen.G have an AMOV of 11.66 and have covered by double digits in their last 10 game wins. That's about as dominant as you can be.
DAMWON have an AMOD of 8.92 and have lost by double digits in 7 of their 14 losses including 3 of their last 5.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)(Nitrogen)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: Gen.G -6.5 kills @ +109 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -7.5 kills @ +141 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: Gen.G -6.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -7.5 kills @ +144 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
Week 6 - Day 2
Sandbox Gaming +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
Afreeca Freecs -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
Sandbox were looking like an absolute mess before the break, similar to Griffin. They couldn't settle on a lineup which didn't help. They lost their past three matches and only won one match since their very first matchup against APK Prince. This roster isn't short on talent but they just haven't been able to put it all together. They've had a lot of trouble closing out games with a lead. Sandbox actually have a +175 gold differential at 15 minutes and a +3.8 CS differential at 15.
Afreeca sit firmly above the rest of the pack but just short of the elite three in their own sort of tier two. That said, Afreeca have been wildly inconsistent game to game this split. After their first series of the season, a 2-0 vs Griffin, Afreeca have gone to three games in EVERY SINGLE SERIES. That's against good, bad, ugly, etc. This team is really good they just need to keep it together for a full series.
I've talked a lot about the parity in Korea this split and how the bottom half teams are all going to be able to get games and remain competitive. Then you see Afreeca "always go to three games" as a trend. I don't think Afreeca will continue always going to three games but I do think this is probably a spot where Sandbox are able to get one. It's an interesting matchup because Sandbox have been able to establish leads and Afreeca have been able to win without leads but the majority of Afreeca's negative differentials were in blowout losses to the elite teams.
I rarely bet exact match scores but this is one of the rare spots, coming off of a few weeks break with an inconsistent team that I'm going to take a shot on the Afreeca exact 2-1.
At both of these teams like to fight a lot and tend to throw themselves at problems almost like an LPL team. Because of this, they have rather high kills per loss and per win numbers. We'll take a shot at the plus odds on over 22.5 with a combined kill+deaths/game of 22.65.
Prop: Afreeca Exact 2-1 @ +185 (0.5 units)
Total Kills: Map 1 OVER 22.5 kills @ +108 (0.25 units)
Total Kills: Map 2 OVER 22.5 kills @ +109 (0.25 units)
vs
Afreeca Freecs -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
Sandbox were looking like an absolute mess before the break, similar to Griffin. They couldn't settle on a lineup which didn't help. They lost their past three matches and only won one match since their very first matchup against APK Prince. This roster isn't short on talent but they just haven't been able to put it all together. They've had a lot of trouble closing out games with a lead. Sandbox actually have a +175 gold differential at 15 minutes and a +3.8 CS differential at 15.
Afreeca sit firmly above the rest of the pack but just short of the elite three in their own sort of tier two. That said, Afreeca have been wildly inconsistent game to game this split. After their first series of the season, a 2-0 vs Griffin, Afreeca have gone to three games in EVERY SINGLE SERIES. That's against good, bad, ugly, etc. This team is really good they just need to keep it together for a full series.
I've talked a lot about the parity in Korea this split and how the bottom half teams are all going to be able to get games and remain competitive. Then you see Afreeca "always go to three games" as a trend. I don't think Afreeca will continue always going to three games but I do think this is probably a spot where Sandbox are able to get one. It's an interesting matchup because Sandbox have been able to establish leads and Afreeca have been able to win without leads but the majority of Afreeca's negative differentials were in blowout losses to the elite teams.
I rarely bet exact match scores but this is one of the rare spots, coming off of a few weeks break with an inconsistent team that I'm going to take a shot on the Afreeca exact 2-1.
At both of these teams like to fight a lot and tend to throw themselves at problems almost like an LPL team. Because of this, they have rather high kills per loss and per win numbers. We'll take a shot at the plus odds on over 22.5 with a combined kill+deaths/game of 22.65.
Prop: Afreeca Exact 2-1 @ +185 (0.5 units)
Total Kills: Map 1 OVER 22.5 kills @ +108 (0.25 units)
Total Kills: Map 2 OVER 22.5 kills @ +109 (0.25 units)
---
APK Prince +593 (+1.5 @ +172)
vs
T1 -1408 (-1.5 @ -260)
So the deal with APK is that while I think they've cheesed out a few people with good drafts, this team just isn't very talented player to player. I'm actually expecting T1 to try out some subs here unless they feel like they want to race Gen.G for 1st place. They'll probably still win but I'm not laying -260 coming out of time off against an APK team that LOVES to cheese and has some pretty off the wall draft strategies.
T1 actually have a very low AMOV given their record at 8.78 kills. Only 7 of their 16 wins have been by double digits, which makes sense given their conservative, low variance style of play. Against other "bad" team Griffin, T1 won 11-0 and 19-9 in kills. Against APK the first time around T1 only won by 5 kills and 10 kills. In game two of that series they actually got first blood, first tower, four drakes, and still lost.
Against the other elite teams, APK hasn't faired as well with margins of defeat of 11, 10, 16, and 18. I think we get something in the middle here. This is a bit higher risk as I'm laying money on some of these spreads but I have to think T1 win more decisively in at least one of these games. This is against the numbers.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -132 (0.132 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ -105 (0.105 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -128 (0.128 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ -102 (0.102 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +125 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
APK Prince +593 (+1.5 @ +172)
vs
T1 -1408 (-1.5 @ -260)
So the deal with APK is that while I think they've cheesed out a few people with good drafts, this team just isn't very talented player to player. I'm actually expecting T1 to try out some subs here unless they feel like they want to race Gen.G for 1st place. They'll probably still win but I'm not laying -260 coming out of time off against an APK team that LOVES to cheese and has some pretty off the wall draft strategies.
T1 actually have a very low AMOV given their record at 8.78 kills. Only 7 of their 16 wins have been by double digits, which makes sense given their conservative, low variance style of play. Against other "bad" team Griffin, T1 won 11-0 and 19-9 in kills. Against APK the first time around T1 only won by 5 kills and 10 kills. In game two of that series they actually got first blood, first tower, four drakes, and still lost.
Against the other elite teams, APK hasn't faired as well with margins of defeat of 11, 10, 16, and 18. I think we get something in the middle here. This is a bit higher risk as I'm laying money on some of these spreads but I have to think T1 win more decisively in at least one of these games. This is against the numbers.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -132 (0.132 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ -105 (0.105 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -128 (0.128 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ -102 (0.102 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +125 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
---
DAMWON +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
Gen.G -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
Both of these teams are coming off of matches last night which is interesting and that's going to be something we see more with the condensed schedule. I wonder how it's going to turn out.
DAMWON have a lot of the same problems they've been having. They're handicapped by their own stubbornness and because they haven't been flexible in the past, they're going to struggle if they ever do choose to adapt. Gen.G look like they haven't missed a beat. This team is really really good. It was against Griffin and all but I'm going to take the Gen.G spread and kill spreads here. They should punish DAMWON hard.
Gen.G have an AMOV of 11.66 and have covered by double digits in their last 10 game wins. That's about as dominant as you can be.
DAMWON have an AMOD of 8.92 and have lost by double digits in 7 of their 14 losses including 3 of their last 5.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)(Nitrogen)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: Gen.G -6.5 kills @ +109 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -7.5 kills @ +141 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: Gen.G -6.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -7.5 kills @ +144 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
LPL (China)
Week 4 - Day 4
Dominus eSports +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
vs
Rogue Warriors -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
Rogue Warriors -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
DOM: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
RW: Crazy, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
RW have an AMOV of 9.5 kills with 4 of their 8 wins by double digits.
Dominus have an AMOD of 8.0 kills with 5 of their 12 losses by double digits.
Dominus have lost by 6 or more in in 9 of their 12 losses.
Moneyline: Rogue Warriors -167 (1.67 units)
Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +169 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: RW -5.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RW -6.5 kills @ +149 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: RW -5.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RW -6.5 kills @ +152 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
---
Team WE +118 (+1.5 @ -287)
vs
Suning Gaming -167 (-1.5 @ +197)
Lineups:
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
SN: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
It's so difficult to decipher what to take away from that WE vs RW series with the clear tampering that was taking place. Rogue Warriors likely should have 2-0'd which is somewhat concerning for a Team WE squad that was looking pretty competitive. I still think they're significantly better than the bottom of the table but Suning aren't a bottom of the table team and should be favorites here.
Weirdly, I think Suning are still flying under the radar. Their statistics tell a story of a better team than their record but then you look at their record and it hasn't exactly been a particularly difficult or easy schedule. This team knows how to push a lead home and with Angel showing all sorts of niche picks like Twisted Fate and Kassadin, it's really making drafting against Suning quite difficult. He's playing better than he has at any point in his career. Huanfeng has also been a complete beast. This is the carry tandem that Suning were missing last year. I actually think this team is being underrated.
Suning actually have an AMOV of 10.57 with all but two wins by double digits and only one by less than 9 (3).
Team WE have the worst AMOD in the LPL losing by an average of 14.33 kills. Even with the outliers taken out its north of 12 kills.
If I think Suning win this match we're going to take plus odds on all the kill spreads.
Moneyline: Suning Gaming -159 (1.59 units)
Map 1
Kill Spread: SN -4.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ +150 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ +186 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ +227 (0.1 units)
Map 2
Kill Spread: SN -3.5 kills @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -4.5 kills @ +126(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ +156(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ +191(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ +235(0.1 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
---Weirdly, I think Suning are still flying under the radar. Their statistics tell a story of a better team than their record but then you look at their record and it hasn't exactly been a particularly difficult or easy schedule. This team knows how to push a lead home and with Angel showing all sorts of niche picks like Twisted Fate and Kassadin, it's really making drafting against Suning quite difficult. He's playing better than he has at any point in his career. Huanfeng has also been a complete beast. This is the carry tandem that Suning were missing last year. I actually think this team is being underrated.
Suning actually have an AMOV of 10.57 with all but two wins by double digits and only one by less than 9 (3).
Team WE have the worst AMOD in the LPL losing by an average of 14.33 kills. Even with the outliers taken out its north of 12 kills.
If I think Suning win this match we're going to take plus odds on all the kill spreads.
Moneyline: Suning Gaming -159 (1.59 units)
Map 1
Kill Spread: SN -4.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ +150 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ +186 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ +227 (0.1 units)
Map 2
Kill Spread: SN -3.5 kills @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -4.5 kills @ +126(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ +156(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ +191(0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ +235(0.1 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
LGD Gaming +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
Vici Gaming -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Chance
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
What a weird timeline... So LGD were always the team swapping players in and out and unable to get any kind of momentum because of it. LGD have largely stuck with the same roster for all but a few games this season while Vici were looking good and then started messing around with their roster. I'm so annoyed.
So now we're going to get both Hang AND Forge AND Aix. Maybe it's because Vici think they can win against LGD regardless? I think Vici win this match but LGD have taken games off of Suning and Invictus in their past two series and before that swept TOP. I still don't think this LGD team is that good but this line is giving them zero credit. Their economy stats aren't as bad as a typical bottom of the table team either and they're significantly better than Vici's. I like LGD to get a game here. Probably the first game before Vici either make substitutions or adjust.
There have been a few wins with a negative kill difference this season, including LGD vs eStar (lost with a 17-16 kill lead) but typically if I can get better odds than the map moneyline on the kill spread I'll take it. Since I feel strongly the LGD get a game here, I'm going to stake this in a way where I'll profit a minimum of a quarter unit if that happens. If the game one scenario that I see happening does end up true then we profit a bit more.
Spread: LGD +1.5 @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: LGD +166 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
Kill Spread: Map 1 LGD +0.5 kills @ +148 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
------------------------So now we're going to get both Hang AND Forge AND Aix. Maybe it's because Vici think they can win against LGD regardless? I think Vici win this match but LGD have taken games off of Suning and Invictus in their past two series and before that swept TOP. I still don't think this LGD team is that good but this line is giving them zero credit. Their economy stats aren't as bad as a typical bottom of the table team either and they're significantly better than Vici's. I like LGD to get a game here. Probably the first game before Vici either make substitutions or adjust.
There have been a few wins with a negative kill difference this season, including LGD vs eStar (lost with a 17-16 kill lead) but typically if I can get better odds than the map moneyline on the kill spread I'll take it. Since I feel strongly the LGD get a game here, I'm going to stake this in a way where I'll profit a minimum of a quarter unit if that happens. If the game one scenario that I see happening does end up true then we profit a bit more.
Spread: LGD +1.5 @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: LGD +166 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
Kill Spread: Map 1 LGD +0.5 kills @ +148 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Other Leagues
none yet
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