Saturday, April 7, 2018

Betting: April 8th (LPL, LCK Playoffs, EU LCS Playoffs, NA LCS Playoffs, TCL)

It's super late and I don't have too much time for a long writeup on each game but I'll post my picks here with shorter versions. Saves me a bunch of time not typing out the schedules too.

Picks for April 8th:

LCK - Afreeca @ KT Rolster 

Moneyline: KT Rolster -196   (5 units)

Handicapped:  KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +114 (2 units)

Afreeca have been excellent this season and they even got to see KT play a series against SKT which can be a huge advantage but I'm going with KT here. I think KT Rolster are probably the second or third best team in the world behind Kingzone and maybe Invictus. The metagame is so good for them right now and while I've been impressed with Afreeca, they haven't played in this important a match before while KT are sick of losing in matches like this. I actually think this could end up being a slugfest 3-2 (and I kind of hope it does) but I think it's more likely to go 3-1 for KT.

LPL - Team WE vs OMG, FunPlus Phoenix vs Vici Gaming, and BiliBili Gaming vs EDward Gaming

Handicapped: Team WE -1.5 @ +119  (2 units)

Team WE have been losing single games to people and OMG have been more competitive than they were earlier in the season but WE absolutely need this win because if FunPlus score a victory (in a game that starts after this one does) they can potentially steal the #4 seed from WE. I expect WE to take it to a pretty awful OMG team here and while I think OMG will be up for this and try to play spoiler, I don't think WE are going to be sloppy and botch a game. I might up this...

Handicapped: FunPlus Phoenix -1.5 @ +103  (2 units)

FunPlus could steal Team WE's #4 seed with a win and WE loss. I'm keeping this at 2 units for now but keep an eye on the WE game because I could see FPP losing this if WE wins and eliminates them from playoff contention. You could also say FPP aren't good enough to 2-0 anybody whether it's a terrible Vici team or not. Ehh I'm going 2 units on the MUST WIN and the 2-0.

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming +145 (2 units)

EDG have nothing to play for. Their first seed is locked up and they'll likely not want to show anything here. BiliBili on the other hand could actually steal the #2 seed from Snake who have no more games to play because they have the tiebreaker of win percentage (the series between them was 1-1). Now EDG can be good enough that they actually win this even if they're not all committed to it or if they want to go into playoffs with a lot of momentum but I don't think they're going to care too much about this match or want to show anything special. There is the "fixing" angle on this match. If EDG thinks BBG are a team they would rather face than Snake they could potentially "throw" this match to give BBG the higher seed  and thus a better chance to face them down the line. So who do I think EDG would rather face? EDG lost both of their matches to Snake this season and beat BiliBili 2-0. That being said, Snake have shown some weaknesses lately and are perhaps the worse team. In terms of style and specific matchups I think EDG would rather face Snake as well but the truth is, as sad as it is, I can't seem to find an angle here. If I definitely thought EDG wanted to face one or the other of these teams I'd SLAM THIS but I can't get a read other than BBG DEFINITELY want the #2 seed. I might go more on this but we'll keep this at 2 units. Sadly :-(

European LCS - G2 eSports vs Fnatic 

Moneyline: G2 eSports +114  (4 units)

I've said Fnatic are a cut above the rest of Europe but I see this as two relatively even teams except a potentially MASSIVE mismatch in the top lane. Bwipo has been good for a rookie in a high pressure situation but Wunder has been the best top laner in Europe BY FAR. It's not even close. He's dominating everybody with the least jungle help... I cant help but think that matchup could tilt this to G2 but I do think this will be a five game slugfest. Perkz and Caps match each other, bot lane is a slight edge to Fnatic and junglers match so I'm going 4 units on the massive top lane mismatch warping this series even in tank vs tank situations. Bwipo has done most of his work on carries and it appears to be Ornn vs Tanks in a world where Swain is banned. I think the Fnatic are the better team with Soaz but this is closer to even or even in G2's favor without him. 

NA LCS - 100 Thieves vs Team Liquid

Moneyline: Team Liquid -233 (6 units)

Handicapped: Team Liquid -1.5 maps @ +112 (2 units)

I might up this wager tomorrow but I'm getting in at +112 now. I think Team Liquid are going to blow this series out. I know Aphro just got the MVP and that I've been wrong on 100 Thieves all season but Team Liquid look absolutely dominant and with the horrible news about Doublelift's family I think a person with his personality is going to be insanely driven to win this. I don't play too much on the emotion of things often but it's definitely a factor in this case. It's like the icing on the betting cake because I already thought TL would dominate this match.

Friday, April 6, 2018

Betting: April 7th (LPL, TCL playoffs, EU LCS playoffs, NA LCS playoffs)

LPL April 7th Schedule:

Rogue Warriors (-278, -1.5 @ +116, M1 -213, M2 -227, M3 -185)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
JD Gaming (+206, +1.5 @ -152, M1 +161, M2 +169, M3 +141)

Royal Never Give Up (-909, -1.5 @ -185, M1 -455, M2 -455, M3 -370)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
TopSports Gaming (+524, +1.5 @ +140, M1 +309, M2 ++311, M3 +261)

Invictus Gaming (-1250, -1.5 @ -213, M1 -500, M2 -588, M3 -500)

@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 20.5)
LGD Gaming (+659, +1.5 @ +160, M1 +326, M2 +377, M3 +326)


Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +116 (5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

I think this line is an overreaction to Rogue Warriors losing their last three games but this has a couple of layers to it. RW honestly look like they mailed it in the second they clinched their #2 seed because they started losing once they got to 13 wins because it wasn't possible for RNG or Suning to catch them and Invictus had gotten to 15. If you look at their drafts they've been experimenting with carry tops and different mid lane picks like Vladimir, Taliyah, and Viktor for Doinb as well as Kaisa for SmLz. 

"But Gelati, that strangely coincides with the introduction of patch 8.5, maybe they just can't play that well in the new meta?" 

This is the stronger argument than the "they've lost their last three and are in free fall." Rogue Warriors are a great team, and to me they're the second best team in a very competitive LPL this season. They tried some things and they could likely do that again but the difference is that this time they aren't playing against teams like RNG and Suning who were battling for playoff seeding while trying new things. JD were a promising team early in the season but this is ultimately a mid tier team. I expect Rogue Warriors to get back on track and head into playoffs with the confidence of an absolute stomping against JD who have shown an inability to snowball games often sticking to the "scale and protect the Loken" plan. RW aren't going to let that happen whether they're trying new things or not.


Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -185  (3 units)

With a win and a Suning loss RNG have now locked the #3 seed in the East but also cannot catch #2 Rogue Warriors with one game remaining. This would normally be a tough spot for RNG to get up for this game since there's literally no implication for either team but I trust RNG to thoroughly stomp bottom dwellers TopSports and unlike RW, RNG aren't on a losing streak going into playoffs and in need of a "get right" game. RNG had an excellent performance against RW and I trust they'll want to keep momentum rather than resting starters or getting a 1-3 game sample of something more experimental. If I'm RNG I want to keep rolling right into playoffs and not mess with a good thing you've got going but I'm going to limit this wager because it's completely reasonable for them to just punt this to not give any relevant film to playoff opponents. I actually don't dislike fading here and getting +140 on the +1.5 for TopSports if you believe in the "this doesn't matter" or "this is TopSports Super Bowl" factor but I still think even with that factored in that an RNG 2-0 is most likely. #Week9problems


Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -213 (2 units)

I really should abstain from this bet because I just have a gut feeling that the newly feisty LGD could steal a game here but this Invictus team is like the terminator. In every single "let down" game scenario this season they've just obliterated the opposition and it'd be really strange for them not to do so in the last game before playoffs. If you LOVE really heavy underdogs this is as good a spot as any but I'm going to trust the Invictus Terminators.


Turkish Champions League Playoffs

1907 Fenerbahce (-588, -1.5 @ -222, M1 -278, M2 -588, M3 -500)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Team AURORA (+328, +1.5 @ +149, M1 +190, M2 +196, M3 +193)

Handicapped: 1907 Fenerbahce -1.5 maps @ -222 (4 units)

PROP: Team AURORA to win at least one map? NO @ +168 (1 unit) 

Team AURORA and 1907 Fenerbahce actually split their season matches two each but in an eight team league it took a tiebreaker to decide the 6th seed between AURORA and HWA... AURORA actually lost their last 5 matches in a row including a blowout win by Fenerbahce in the season finale. I've been pretty spot on in the TCL this year but mostly playing props on game times. This might seem like a tempting spot to take AUR because of the season split but in both of their wins against FB they got Galio + Jarvan / Camille in a metagame where those were borderline must ban champions. I don't expect that to be the case as FB can identify that was the main reason for their loss and ban that strategy out like they did last week. This SHOULD be a 3-0 with the second most likely being a 3-1 for FB. 


European LCS Playoffs:

Splyce (-169, -1.5 @ +125, M1 -141, M2 -145, M3 -145)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Team Vitality (+132, +1.5 @ -164, M1 +109, M2 +111, M3 +111)

(Picks tomorrow morning, at this moment I'm leaning Splyce 3-2 but I can justify both sides so this might be a light wager, gonna think on it, line slightly moved from -172)


North American LCS Playoffs:

Echo Fox (-132, -1.5 @ +216, M1 -123, M2 -122, M3 -122)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)

Clutch Gaming (+104, +1.5 @ -294, M1 -104, M2 -105, M3 -105)

(Picks tomorrow, leaning Clutch but timid because Huni can take over entire games on his own and while Solo has been excellent he hasn't had to face a threat like Huni because Hauntzer was relatively restricted by TSM compositions while Huni likely won't be... more tomorrow)


Thursday, April 5, 2018

Betting: April 6th (LPL)

LPL April 6th Schedule:

BiliBili Gaming (-400, -1.5 @ -119, M1 -278, M2 -294, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Vici Gaming (+281, +1.5 @ -109, M1 +203, M2 +216, M3 +168)

Snake eSports (+107, +1.5 @ -286, M1 +100, M2 +101, M3 +100)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team WE (-137, -1.5 @ +210, M1 -130, M2 -130, M3 -130)

We have an interesting two matches in the final week of the LPL today. BiliBili trails Snake by one game in the standings and with an second game left to play this week, could potentially overtake them for the #2 seed in the West to earn side selection for their first playoff series. Just another game behind them at 9-7 is Team WE who look to hold their playoff spot over a surging FunPlus Phoenix with a win. 


Handicapped: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 maps @ -119 (5 units)

So to me there are a few ways to slice this match and it has a lot to do with how much stock you put into games after a team secures the spot. BiliBili have two games left to get one win to technically lock their playoff spot so you could tell a story about how they get lazy for this game but I'm opting for what I believe is the more likely situation. With two wins to finsh out the season it's totally within reason for BiliBili to take over the second seed from Snake. It's also likely that could go to game tiebreakers so they'll need as many wins and as few losses as possible. Add in the fact that Team WE is breathing down their neck and FunPlus isn't far behind that and this has all the pressure of a big game to determine playoff seeding.

Like I said, with a win they lock their spot but I think BiliBili are going to want to play for the #2 seed and perhaps even more so, play to avoid the #4 seed who would have to face EDG, the clear #1 in the West. They have so many different motivations for this game and Vici, while attempting to turn over a new leaf, are still one of the worst squads in the LPL. I'm honestly shocked this line is as low as it is so I'm attacking in a spot that looks vulnerable.


Moneyline: Snake eSports +107 (4 units)

Prop: Exact Score Snake 2-1 @ +287 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Score Snake 2-0 @ +248 (1 unit)

Snake are currently 11-7 in 2nd place with only this game to play to end their season. Meanwhile Team WE are 9-8 with this game, and a second against OMG later this week meaning that if they take this match and beat OMG it's possible for Team WE to move into 2nd place with a BBG loss. Regardless both teams should be up for this game and I don't think Snake will be messing with their roster in this one because they could potentially lose their #2 seed rather easily.

So why, then, am I hammering Snake here despite Team WE perhaps having a more immediately threatening situation? Because I don't think Snake have been taking the past couple games that seriously and they were STILL AHEAD in most situations even with Light playing ADC. They've had some weird, seemingly experimental compositions as well which also lends towards a focus on exploration as opposed to winning.  I know Kryst4l had a couple of bad games but I full expect him to be back in and in full form for this one and Snake to be up and ready to show the West why they were on top for so much of this season.

This line is saying that Snake are who they were in their past two games against FunPlus and BiliBili and are perhaps underrating how hungry those teams had to be in those games while jockeying for playoff positioning while Snake took some time to give their sub some experience. I'm not saying Snake is miles ahead of WE or as good as they were in the first half but this line shouldn't have them as underdogs when they could easily lose their #2 seed. This is one of the stronger teams in the LPL who aren't going to give up their playoff spot without a fight.  I expect Snake to be up for this game and rather fancy the decisive 2-0 which I may add to later depending on line movement.

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Betting: April 4th (LCK Playoffs / LPL)

LCK Playoffs April 4th Schedule:

SK Telecom (+156, +1.5 @ -123, M1 +124, M2 +130, M3 +125)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
KT Rolster (-208, -1.5 @ -104, M1 -161, M2 -169, M3 -164)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -192 (10 units) 

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +110 (5 units)

Prop: Exact Score KT 3-0 @ +293 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Score KT 3-1 @ +260 (1 unit)

So I had an idea I was going to bet this under the assumption that SKT won in the fashion they did and that's what you see here. It's VERY heavy handed. People will cite the "Telecom War" and how they're always close series but the truth is, at least this season, that Kingzone, KT Rolster, and Afreeca have a huge lead on SKT, KSV, and ROX in overall quality. As happy as I was to see SK Telecom sneak into playoffs (as I called it) the truth is they weren't going to go past the first round at any point no matter how optimistic I am. This series has a lot of history but KT Rolster, as well as Kingzone, were built for when a meta shift like this one happens. They're extremely good in the early game, have superior laners at all positions except mid, and have the better, more experienced jungler in Score. Whether Pawn or UCal start I think KT are just miles better than SKT and they showed it the last time they played swapping mids between games with both putting in excellent performances. 

I placed this wager on Monday morning and the line has since moved to KT Rolster -208. It's a bit steep but I think a 3-0 or a 3-1 are the most likely outcomes here. This SK Telecom team isn't nearly the quality of years past and while weird things do happen, and they have this season in the LCK, I'm willing to lay a significant amount on this pick. This is strictly about quality. This KT team has been too good for the past year an a half and just snakebitten. I think they shake the rattler off here and absolutely obliterate SKT.


LPL April 4th Schedule:

LGD Gaming (-357, -1.5 @ -112, M1 -263, M2 -278, M3 -204)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
TopSports Gaming (+257, +1.5 @ -115, M1 +194, M2 +205, M3 +154)

Snake eSports (-769, -1.5 @ -196, M1 -455, M2 -500, M2 -278)
@ (Over/Under ??, Total Kills ???)
OMG (+469, +1.5 @ +149, M1 +309, M2 +332, M3 +203)

Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -112 (4 units)

LGD have been absolutely rolling recently and seemed to have found their identity in the post-Imp era by winning their past three series against RNG, JDG and Suning which are three playoff quality teams (maybe not JD but who's nitpicking). They've even taken games off of EDG and played a close one against Rogue Warriors in game two of that series. They've really come into their own. You could make the argument that this is "their SuperBowl" for TopSports who have only one game remaining agianst RNG after this but this team, while stealing a game here and there, is just not that good. I think with Jinoo playing at the level he's been playing at he can match TopSports only real weapon in Marin especially with a the top lane pool opening up a bit. 

This is a classic case of two teams with "nothing to play for" after very early playoff eliminations but LGD really developing with their roster change and new approach while TopSports seems to be floundering to find a roster that works together and are playing glorified solo queue. I LOVE LGD to sweep this especially because they lost 1-2 the first time these teams faced a few weeks back while LGD was struggling.


Handicapped: Snake eSports -1.5 maps @ -196 (4 units)

Snake have been in a really weird funk the past couple weeks but I think OMG are just what the doctor ordered. No they're not as bad as they were early in the season but Snake have now lost their #1 seed to EDG with bot teams having two matches to play each with one easy and one medium difficulty foe. Snake will be taking this game seriously and with a fresh patch to play with our boy Flandre could cook up something spicy for us in the top lane. 


Parlay: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -104, LGD -1.5 @ -112, Snake -1.5 @ -196  (2 units to win ~11 units)

I feel pretty confident about the triple sweep today but some of the moneylines are a tad steep to go too heavy so we'll couple them for a parlay.

Monday, April 2, 2018

Betting: April 3rd (LPL)

LPL April 3rd Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-909, -1.5 @ -159, M1 -417, M2 -417, M3 -370)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Suning Gaming (+520, +1.5 @ +122, M1 +291, M2 +291, M3 +261)

EDward Gaming (-244, -1.5 @ +136, M1 -204, M2 -204, M3 -161)
@ (Over/Under ??, Total Kills ???)
FunPlus Phoenix (+184, +1.5 @ -179, M1 +154, M2 +154, M3 +154)

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 @ -159  (2 units)

Invictus actually have nothing to play for and nothing to show while Suning are in a heated battle with JDG for the #4 seed. Really what this match boils down to is do we think that Invictus can stomp Suning without even caring about this match? IG just whooped on Rogue Warriors in the exact same situation, first seed already locked up, no reason to play it hard other than to send a message. I expect Invictus will be up for this game as they have with their others. This team is a bunch of terminators. They don't seem to care about "bad spots" or "playing for nothing." That being said, I'm keeping this wager limited both because of the odds and because Suning absolutely must have this game. 

I'm kind of talking myself into the underdogs here... maybe I'll hedge this after the fact...

Moneyline:  Suning Gaming +520  (0.5 units)


Handicapped: EDward Gaming -1.5 @ +136 (2 units)

So yesterday I talked about WE needing a win to pull ahead of FunPlus for the #4 seed which they did but I also said that I'd assumed FPP would lose to EDG. That hasn't changed but I'm having a tough time figuring out how I think that will happen. It's been a long time since these teams first faced off in the first week of the season and FunPlus have been competitive the past couple of weeks while battling for their playoff spot. Meanwhile EDG have dropped games here and there to some weaker teams so why am I going with EDG for the 2-0? Because I think FPP are the fairtale that ends badly and because I think this metagame is exceptionally good for EDG's carry top laner Ray as much or more so than it is for GimGoon. FPP more or less only win when he's popping off and Ray should be able to dominate him. This is a poor matchup and bad timing in a crucial time for FPP but I think EDG take this 2-0.

Sunday, April 1, 2018

Betting: April 2nd (LPL)

LPL April 2nd Schedule:

Team WE (-526, -1.5 @ -145, M1 -345, M2 -370, M3 -250)
@ (Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??)
Vici Gaming (+359, +1.5 @ +111, M1 +248, M2 +258, M3 +185)

Rogue Warriors (-156, -1.5 @ +184, M1 -147, M2 -145, M3 -135)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Royal Never Give Up (122, +1.5 @ -250, M1 +113, M2 +111, M3 +104)

Moneyline: Royal Never Give Up +122  (2 units)

Both of these teams are coming off of rough losses, RNG a 1-2 loss to bottom dwellers LGD and Rogue Warriors to much stronger competition in Invictus and Suning. This bet comes down to a couple factors for me.

  • To me these two teams are just a little closer to even then this when they're both playing at an expected level. Rogue Warriors have been more consistent but RNG also played the first half of the season without their best player.
  • Rogue Warriors have locked up 2nd place and can no longer catch Invictus in first place so they have nothing to play for but momentum and I expect they'll be hesitant to show anything new unless they want to as misdirection.
  • RNG could move two match wins ahead of Suning gaming for the 3rd spot and avoid a first round playoff match with Invictus so I'd expect they're going to be "up" for this game unlike RW. 
  • RNG have the best single player in this game in Uzi.
  • Line value is too good for the situation/context.
I'm limiting this play because Rogue Warriors could very well care about this game but I'm willing to put a couple units on that not being the case. I love the value we're getting here with two close to even teams with one having nothing to play for and the other the ability to avoid Invictus juggernaut in the first round.


Handicapped: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -145  (3 units)

With a match win Team WE can move two games ahead of FunPlus Phoenix and more than likely lock up their #4 seed when FunPlus loses to EDG on Tuesday. Vici have shown some fight recently but this is still a bottom of the table team, perhaps the worst or second worst in the league and have dropped all but two series all season (one against OMG and one against LGD). Now Team WE have shown a tendency to drop games to inferior teams which make this wager a bit scary in an against the model type of way but I feel pretty confident in WE to smash this series and set themselves up to secure a playoff birth with wins against either Snake or OMG (OMG more likely) later this week.