March 23rd Recap:
LPL: 11 - 10 (+1.9625 units)
Live: 0 - 1 (-1.33 units)
TOTAL: 11 - 11 (+0.6325 units)
Live: 0 - 1 (-1.33 units)
TOTAL: 11 - 11 (+0.6325 units)
First couple runs at the alternate kill spread brought back nice results considering the two massive underdog wins in the LCS. I'm going to keep working on this. It seems like a significantly better way to attack medium and large favorites especially in best of ones. Working on that spread history is another project I have for next season.
In terms of the actual games I guess we can address the elephant in the room first. eStar taking down Invictus. I've talked extensively on twitter about this and released a long multi-tweet that you can find here. The long and short of it is that eStar are presenting a problem for the LPL to solve and nobody is trying to solve it. I'm not taking anything away from eStar. Why would they change when they don't have to? I'll mention again that they remind me a lot of FPX last year. FPX were able to make the adjustment once they got figured out a little bit in Spring. eStar just haven't had to because nobody has consistently been able to answer it.
eStar are good. Are they one of the best teams in the world good? I'm not quite ready to crown them on that level yet. I'll always be skeptical of a team until they show me they can take a punch and adjust. The only thing eStar have done wrong is not take a real punch yet. I'll reserve further judgement on them until that happens.
I will say that my 0.1u @ +25,000 to win the Spring split is looking mighty fine at the moment.
EDG and Vici was an interesting one. A lot of back and forth in the first two games. EDG were really creative in how they figured a way out of a deficit in game one by attacking Forge. Game two I think could have gone either way but Hope was put to the impossible task of navigating fights as the only real damage source against Vici's comp and unfortuantely wasn't flawless. Vici got smashed in game three. I still think these two teams are likely going to be in a heat with a handful of other teams battling for a playoff spot but EDG look ahead of schedule considering all of the roster issues they had during the hiatus. That's harder than people realize and credit should be given. EDG strike me as the kind of team that's going to win a lot of 2-1 series.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
CURRENTLY I DO NOT HAVE LINEUPS. Check on these closer to match time. Since I won't be here most of the night, I'm going to writeup and wager under the assumption it's the typical starting lineups we've seen. Adjust accordingly!!
Week 4 - Day 2
Rogue Warriors +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
vs
Team WE -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
Lineups:
RW:
WE:
Rogue Warriors are a tough team to read. They don't entirely lack talent but they are often outclassed except for the bottom teams. I like the way Rogue Warriors play the game, especially since switching over to Crazy most of the time. They understand the powerful picks in the metagame and abuse them, and are willing to play uptempo against better teams or to punish slower teams. Rogue Warriors are a good "punch up" underdog. They're going to take a lot of games and keep things interesting even against better teams. Team WE are similar.
This is a matchup between two teams that I think are being slightly underrated. If we dive a bit deeper into it, Team WE only really have 2 game wins against what I'd call a decent team and that was against Vici 2-0 in the first week back from hiatus. Their other wins are Dominus and Victory Five who, as we know, are probably the two worst teams in the league. Rogue Warriors also have a 2-0 against Victory Five and have faced a significantly harder schedule of LNG, EDG, Invictus, OMG, Suning, and eStar. They 2-1'd EDG, took a game off of Invictus, and 2-0'd Suning albeit before the break.
Watching these teams play I think Team WE is better but there's absolutely no way they deserve to be this big a favorite. I'm not sure if Rogue Warriors are just scrappy underdogs or actually pretty good but, to me, this is a 60-40 Team WE series meaning that there's potentially some value to be had on Rogue Warriors if you shop around for it.
Rogue Warriors have a very high combined kills per minute, 2nd only to Invictus, but this is because of a few outlier games against Invictus and eStar so just keep that in mind, the number isn't as ridiculous as it actually looks. That said, Rogue Warriors like to scrap, and WE are way less opposed to it than they used to be. I'd expect this to be a back and forth but don't see much value on the kill spreads. We'll just stick to the dogs outrght.
NOTE: If Teacherma ends up starting and RW just play the same lineup, I actually like kill based bets a lot more. OVER on kill totals, RW spreads, RW over 11.5 per map, etc. Keep an eye on starting lineups but this is where I'm at for now.
Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ -204 (1.085 units)
Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +145 (0.25 units)
Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +359 (0.1 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
UPDATE: Since Teacherma is starting..
The team totals and kill total have shifted up but I'm going to take some of these RW spreads because they're a better place to park my money than the map moneylines.
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW +3.5 kills @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW + 2.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW +1.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW +0.5 kills @ +146 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 RW +3.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 RW +2.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 RW +1.5 kills @ +124 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 +0.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
---
LNG eSports -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
Suning Gaming +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
Lineups:
LNG:
SN:
---
------------------------
none yet
Week 4 - Day 2
Rogue Warriors +135 (+1.5 @ -234)
vs
Team WE -193 (-1.5 @ +160)
Lineups:
RW:
WE:
Rogue Warriors are a tough team to read. They don't entirely lack talent but they are often outclassed except for the bottom teams. I like the way Rogue Warriors play the game, especially since switching over to Crazy most of the time. They understand the powerful picks in the metagame and abuse them, and are willing to play uptempo against better teams or to punish slower teams. Rogue Warriors are a good "punch up" underdog. They're going to take a lot of games and keep things interesting even against better teams. Team WE are similar.
This is a matchup between two teams that I think are being slightly underrated. If we dive a bit deeper into it, Team WE only really have 2 game wins against what I'd call a decent team and that was against Vici 2-0 in the first week back from hiatus. Their other wins are Dominus and Victory Five who, as we know, are probably the two worst teams in the league. Rogue Warriors also have a 2-0 against Victory Five and have faced a significantly harder schedule of LNG, EDG, Invictus, OMG, Suning, and eStar. They 2-1'd EDG, took a game off of Invictus, and 2-0'd Suning albeit before the break.
Watching these teams play I think Team WE is better but there's absolutely no way they deserve to be this big a favorite. I'm not sure if Rogue Warriors are just scrappy underdogs or actually pretty good but, to me, this is a 60-40 Team WE series meaning that there's potentially some value to be had on Rogue Warriors if you shop around for it.
Rogue Warriors have a very high combined kills per minute, 2nd only to Invictus, but this is because of a few outlier games against Invictus and eStar so just keep that in mind, the number isn't as ridiculous as it actually looks. That said, Rogue Warriors like to scrap, and WE are way less opposed to it than they used to be. I'd expect this to be a back and forth but don't see much value on the kill spreads. We'll just stick to the dogs outrght.
NOTE: If Teacherma ends up starting and RW just play the same lineup, I actually like kill based bets a lot more. OVER on kill totals, RW spreads, RW over 11.5 per map, etc. Keep an eye on starting lineups but this is where I'm at for now.
Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ -204 (1.085 units)
Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +145 (0.25 units)
Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +359 (0.1 units)
(all at 5Dimes)
UPDATE: Since Teacherma is starting..
The team totals and kill total have shifted up but I'm going to take some of these RW spreads because they're a better place to park my money than the map moneylines.
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW +3.5 kills @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW + 2.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW +1.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 RW +0.5 kills @ +146 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 RW +3.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 RW +2.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 RW +1.5 kills @ +124 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 +0.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
---
LNG eSports -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
Suning Gaming +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
Lineups:
LNG:
SN:
Does it feel weird that LNG are favored by this much? I know a lot of people are saying Suning are the better team but I'll just call them even. I think they're both underrated squads actually. Depending on how these drafts go I think this could also be a bloody series. If Zoe isn't in the game I absolutely love the over on kill totals and Suning spreads.
The long and short of this is that these two teams should probably be even money. Take the underdog.
I'll probably check back later on this one and tweet something out once lineups are out.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -234 (1.17 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Suning +123 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.1 units)(5Dimes)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
none for now
none for now
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