March 6th Recap:
LCK: 1 - 0 (+0.5 units)
LEC: 1 - 3 (-1.0 units)
TOTAL: 2 - 3 (-0.5 units)
Europe was pretty tough. Vitality started off with a lead and were on their way to a possible huge upset. Schalke played a ridiculously hard fought game even through elder buff and baron and just couldn't get it done although they were impressive and controlled under pressure. Excel had a draft that was exactly the kind of thing I wanted, to shut down Febiven and Razork with a superior 2v2 and an all-in early game snowball but botched one fight and ended up sort of tilting off from there once they realized it was probably over. G2 took care of business against Origen. G2 never cease to amaze me. They play these chaotic fights as if they're one mind seeing all five players points of view AND the big picture at all times. Their ability to leverage combat as a form of misdirection and still outperform on a micro level while thinking bigger picture is astounding and significantly more difficult than people realize. A real treat to watch.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LEC (Europe)
Week 7 - Day 2
Excel -369 vs Vitality +246
MAD Lions +108 vs Rogue -154
Schalke -167 vs SK Gaming +118
G2 eSports -207 vs Fnatic +147
General LEC Trends through 65 matches:
Favorites are now 49 - 16
Average line of a favorite is -392.2
-392 is 79.7% implied probability, the current win rate is 75.4%
Excluding favorite lines greater than -535 (extreme favorites), favorites are 38 - 14
Average line of a favorite in this example is -266.3
-266 is a 72.7% implied probability, the current win rate is 73.1%
Excluding all favorites greater than -266 (the average excluding extremes), favorites are 20 - 12 with an average line of -195.2
-195 is 66.1% implied probability, the current win rate is 62.5%
Out of 13 individual days (5 game slate per day) there have been 4 days where all five favorites won and 4 days where four out of five favorites won.
Generally there hasn't been a large gap between the implied odds and the win rates relative to the small sample size we get with the LEC. Usually what this means is that it's very tough to find value and that the lines have been accurate. Over the course of the season, there have been a lot of games that favorites probably should have lost and got out a bit lucky which makes me think that perhaps the value is coming but when you consider that some teams are now being eliminated from playoffs, motivation becomes a factor.
Europe has been chalky and therefor extremely difficult this season if you have used a value based approach. Assuming an even staking plan, the only successful routes to profitability have been to either parlay favorites consistently or to have been on Misfits and MAD Lions all season since they account for 8 of the 16 underdog victories (Misfits 5, MAD 3). Alternatively you could have been very lucky and picked the underdog against G2 in a least two of their losses.
My betting through 65 games in the LEC:
15 wins - 31 losses
Average Wager: 1.06 units
Average Odds: +114.67
Return on Investment: -16.59%
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Origen -234 vs Misfits +160
Origen played well but the unsolvable G2 puzzle continues to flummox them. Misfits managed to hold on for a win against Excel, who made a fatal error in a mismanaged fight near the dragon pit after an early snowball. I actually loved Excel's gameplan to pick a strong mid/jungle 2v2 to shut down Febiven and Razork and it was looking like it was going to work but they just couldn't keep the snowball going.
Misfits look really confident. They've been surprisingly poised under pressure even with such a young roster. As I've already admitted, this team is good but I still don't think they're on the level of the three elite teams in Europe in Origen, Fnatic, and G2.
Origen tend to handle business as favorites both historically and this season with an 8-1 record. This is by design, as we've talked about extensively. Their by-the-book style and strong laners make it very difficult to find a crack in the armor without a little creativity or a lot of luck. Misfits haven't exactly reinvented the wheel. They've busted out a few interesting picks like the Nocturne top and Ekko jungle but largely have played fairly standard.
The catch, is that that lone loss was to Misfits in week three. Misfits were in control of the game but were conflicted on a baron call and ended up getting the baron stolen and losing a fight before eventually getting it back. Since then, I do think people have at least somewhat figured out this Misfits team. They haven't crashed and burned because they're just good but they don't have that element of other teams still figuring them out like they did earlier in the season when these two teams faced off.
Misfits get red side (55.4% win rate in LEC this split) and are 8 - 3 there this split, Misfits were in control of the last game before a baron steal/not-clean call, Misfits are 5 -3 as underdogs (one was against SK...), +160 representing a 38.5% implied probability of a win, all point to taking Misfits but I'm going with Origen.
This is admittedly more of a gut handicap. Origen know a lot more about this team than they did the first time they played. I also think that Misfits losses have been to teams with really strong laners (twice vs Fnatic, twice vs Rogue). I'd argue that Origen are even better in lane than both Fnatic and Rogue. Origen also have better rate statistics almost across the ward with better vision control, damage per gold, and cs and gold differentials (@ 15 mins). Misfits get the couter which I'm potentially underrating but this feels like a difficult matchup for Misfits to crack now that Origen have more information to work with. Misfits are definitely a good team but a lot of things suggest that they're due for a little regression. I'm going light on this game because it still wouldn't surprise me to see Misfits pull out a win but Origen feel like the right side here.
Moneyline: Origen -215 (1.075 units)(5Dimes)
Misfits look really confident. They've been surprisingly poised under pressure even with such a young roster. As I've already admitted, this team is good but I still don't think they're on the level of the three elite teams in Europe in Origen, Fnatic, and G2.
Origen tend to handle business as favorites both historically and this season with an 8-1 record. This is by design, as we've talked about extensively. Their by-the-book style and strong laners make it very difficult to find a crack in the armor without a little creativity or a lot of luck. Misfits haven't exactly reinvented the wheel. They've busted out a few interesting picks like the Nocturne top and Ekko jungle but largely have played fairly standard.
The catch, is that that lone loss was to Misfits in week three. Misfits were in control of the game but were conflicted on a baron call and ended up getting the baron stolen and losing a fight before eventually getting it back. Since then, I do think people have at least somewhat figured out this Misfits team. They haven't crashed and burned because they're just good but they don't have that element of other teams still figuring them out like they did earlier in the season when these two teams faced off.
Misfits get red side (55.4% win rate in LEC this split) and are 8 - 3 there this split, Misfits were in control of the last game before a baron steal/not-clean call, Misfits are 5 -3 as underdogs (one was against SK...), +160 representing a 38.5% implied probability of a win, all point to taking Misfits but I'm going with Origen.
This is admittedly more of a gut handicap. Origen know a lot more about this team than they did the first time they played. I also think that Misfits losses have been to teams with really strong laners (twice vs Fnatic, twice vs Rogue). I'd argue that Origen are even better in lane than both Fnatic and Rogue. Origen also have better rate statistics almost across the ward with better vision control, damage per gold, and cs and gold differentials (@ 15 mins). Misfits get the couter which I'm potentially underrating but this feels like a difficult matchup for Misfits to crack now that Origen have more information to work with. Misfits are definitely a good team but a lot of things suggest that they're due for a little regression. I'm going light on this game because it still wouldn't surprise me to see Misfits pull out a win but Origen feel like the right side here.
Moneyline: Origen -215 (1.075 units)(5Dimes)
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Excel -369 vs Vitality +246
There is a chance Excel get a bit tilted after yesterday and run into a Vitality that have had some promising early games but I can't help but think that Excel elevate for this game. I won't be betting this straight up but will be including it in parlays.
No wager (will include in parlays)
No wager (will include in parlays)
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MAD Lions +108 vs Rogue -154
So MAD Lions and Schalke played an absolute slugfest. MAD were unable to cleanly close with an ocean elder and a baron buff because of their team composition. Schalke made them work for it. MAD showed a lot of good and a lot of bad in this game. Understanding that they couldn't just brute force things was smart but their movements on the map and wave control were generally lacking which got them in trouble and made closing difficult. Rogue
There was an interesting stat thrown out on the cast yesterday that more or less confirmed a lot of my suspicions thusfar about MAD. MAD have played with a major deficit in 23% of the time IN THEIR WINS. Not all there games. Their wins. Only 15% of the time in their wins did they have a major lead. The "Comeback Kids" monicker has been true including their win earlier this year against Rogue where they also had the wonderful benefit of a certain Soraka vs Sett matchup in their favor. I always find those kinds of measurements illuminating. In the NFL this year it was a highly fraudulent playoff bracket. The Packers, Seahawks, and Texans were all very lucky teams over the course of the season and were not just outclassed, but severely so in the playoffs.
While I think that MAD are improving and showing good signs and that Rogue have been off and on this split I do think Rogue are the better team. Outside of that loss to MAD where they had a lead, Rogue have only lost to the elite teams (G2, Fnatic, Origen). While MAD have a victory against G2, they're also 0-2 vs Excel, 0-1 vs Misfits, and somewhat lucked (getting the Soraka/Sett matchup at the time) into their first win against Rogue.
To me this number is a little short. I think Rogue are more likely around the 70% mark even though the results might state otherwise. Despite all of Rogue's perceived struggles and boring approach, they've actually gone 5 - 1 as favorites of -287 or shorter with the lone loss being to MAD. I think Rogue are the best of the non-elite teams in the LEC and we'll see it here.
Moneyline: Rogue -154 (1.54 units)(Nitrogen)
There was an interesting stat thrown out on the cast yesterday that more or less confirmed a lot of my suspicions thusfar about MAD. MAD have played with a major deficit in 23% of the time IN THEIR WINS. Not all there games. Their wins. Only 15% of the time in their wins did they have a major lead. The "Comeback Kids" monicker has been true including their win earlier this year against Rogue where they also had the wonderful benefit of a certain Soraka vs Sett matchup in their favor. I always find those kinds of measurements illuminating. In the NFL this year it was a highly fraudulent playoff bracket. The Packers, Seahawks, and Texans were all very lucky teams over the course of the season and were not just outclassed, but severely so in the playoffs.
While I think that MAD are improving and showing good signs and that Rogue have been off and on this split I do think Rogue are the better team. Outside of that loss to MAD where they had a lead, Rogue have only lost to the elite teams (G2, Fnatic, Origen). While MAD have a victory against G2, they're also 0-2 vs Excel, 0-1 vs Misfits, and somewhat lucked (getting the Soraka/Sett matchup at the time) into their first win against Rogue.
To me this number is a little short. I think Rogue are more likely around the 70% mark even though the results might state otherwise. Despite all of Rogue's perceived struggles and boring approach, they've actually gone 5 - 1 as favorites of -287 or shorter with the lone loss being to MAD. I think Rogue are the best of the non-elite teams in the LEC and we'll see it here.
Moneyline: Rogue -154 (1.54 units)(Nitrogen)
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Schalke -167 vs SK Gaming +118
We talked a bit on the podcast about this matchup. At the time it was -129. I still like Schalke at this number. To me Schalke look like a new team and, perhaps more importantly, they look like they haven't checked out even though they're more or less eliminated from playoff contention. Schalke have been really controlled and making good bordering on great mid and late game decision making. Hell they nearly won against an ocean elder and baron buff yesterday and there are plenty of good teams that can't put up that kind of defense. I like the trajectory of this Schalke team a lot. They're a few small improvements away from the team we expected before the season even though they likely won't be appearing in playoffs.
SK didn't look too bad in their opening against Fnatic yesterday earning first blood and first tower but it was also against a Lulu mid and in the favorable Karma vs Gangplank matchup. Eventually they were outscaled with the Lulu able to polymorph Leblanc and the Zac support + GP cannon barrage making Crownshot's life a living hell on the immobile Aphelios. It was refreshing to see SK show a more aggressive opening and willingness to make some moves early but they still couldn't make anything of it.
Schalke have looked like an actual good mid and late game team and their defense has been excellent in recent weeks even though they don't have the wins to show for it. SK would need a monumental snowball to break through and I'm just not seeing it against a team that looks much improved like Schalke. It feels bad laying this much money with bottom of the table teams but Schalke have looked more like a playoff team than not recently and SK are still the worst team by a good margin. We've lost some line value which is bad but I'm hammering Schalke here. It's a bad stylistic matchup for SK AND Schalke have looked much better recently. With some more thought put into it, I would have made this my podcast pick of the week but for now we'll just keep it here. I'll also be throwing it into a parlay on top of this.
Moneyline: Schalke -165 (2.475 units)(5Dimes)
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G2 eSports -207 vs Fnatic +147
Talked a lot about this series on the podcast. The general idea here is that this depends on how much weight you're putting on the G2 losses this year. I personally put some weight but not a lot on two out of three. The third (the top Sona game...) I'm throwing out. G2 are still G2 to me, my perception hasn't really changed. The first game these two played this season looked a lot closer on paper than it actually was to me. That said, these two have shown to be competitive with one another in the past but people seem to forget that outside of the two slugfest best of fives we saw last year, that G2 have largely dominated Fnatic.
If you look at the tale of the tape, metrics, statistics, etc. G2 are somehow still blowing the numbers out of the water even compared to last year and that's with more losses than usual. To me, G2 are still the undisputed Kings of Europe and I don't think this matchup is nearly as close as everyone else thinks it is. G2 should smash this. I have this at around a 70-30 even in this metagame and found an outstanding number over at 5Dimes that I'll be on for G2.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -155 (1.55 units)(5Dimes)
If you look at the tale of the tape, metrics, statistics, etc. G2 are somehow still blowing the numbers out of the water even compared to last year and that's with more losses than usual. To me, G2 are still the undisputed Kings of Europe and I don't think this matchup is nearly as close as everyone else thinks it is. G2 should smash this. I have this at around a 70-30 even in this metagame and found an outstanding number over at 5Dimes that I'll be on for G2.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -155 (1.55 units)(5Dimes)
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LCS (North America)
Week 7 - Day 1
Dignitas -154 vs 100 Thieves +108
TSM +296 vs Cloud 9 -478
CLG +329 vs Liquid -535
Evil Geniuses +147 vs FlyQuest -207
General LCS Trends through 60 games:
Favorites are 35 - 25
Average line of a favorite is -268.5
-268.5 is 72.9% implied probability, the current win rate is 58.33%
Excluding favorite lines greater than -535 (extreme favorites), favorites are 32 - 23
Average line of a favorite in this example is -230.6
-230.6 is a 69.8% implied probability, the current win rate is 58.2%
Excluding all favorites greater than -266 (the average excluding extremes), favorites are 23 - 19 with an average line of -185.35
-185.35 is 65.0% implied probability, the current win rate is 54.8%
The LCS plays two 4 game days and one 2 game day. Out of 12 individual 4 game slate days there have been 2 days where all four favorites won and 2 days where three out of four favorites won.
Unlike Europe, North America has some large gaps between implied win rates and actual win rates. Favorites have underperformed in the LCS. This gap indicates that using a value-centric approach to wagering has generally been a profitable approach. There are also a lot of outliers. Below are a few samples:
FlyQuest 3-3 as dogs
IMT 4-4 as dogs
GG 5-7 as dogs
EG 3-3 as dogs
DIG 3-5 as dogs
CLG 0-5 as favorites
EG 2-4 as favorites
TL 5-6 as favorites
Relative to their pre-season odds, these results have drastically exceeded or disappointed expectation. Below are the pre-season futures odds. The two biggest outliers for favorites are Team Liquid and CLG who have both massively underachieved their pre-season favorite status. The two biggest underdog outliers have been Immortals and FlyQuest but Golden Guardians and Dignitas aren't far behind.
As the sample suggests, the underdog trend has NOT been specific to a few teams and is generally league wide. With such a huge gap between the implied win rate and actual win rate of favorites and a lot more parity across the league (besides C9), it's been profitable to take a value-based approach to North America.
My betting through 60 games in the LEC:
20 wins - 19 losses
Average Wager: 1.15 units
Average Odds: +48.0
Return on Investment: +3.23%
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Favorites are 35 - 25
Average line of a favorite is -268.5
-268.5 is 72.9% implied probability, the current win rate is 58.33%
Excluding favorite lines greater than -535 (extreme favorites), favorites are 32 - 23
Average line of a favorite in this example is -230.6
-230.6 is a 69.8% implied probability, the current win rate is 58.2%
Excluding all favorites greater than -266 (the average excluding extremes), favorites are 23 - 19 with an average line of -185.35
-185.35 is 65.0% implied probability, the current win rate is 54.8%
The LCS plays two 4 game days and one 2 game day. Out of 12 individual 4 game slate days there have been 2 days where all four favorites won and 2 days where three out of four favorites won.
Unlike Europe, North America has some large gaps between implied win rates and actual win rates. Favorites have underperformed in the LCS. This gap indicates that using a value-centric approach to wagering has generally been a profitable approach. There are also a lot of outliers. Below are a few samples:
FlyQuest 3-3 as dogs
IMT 4-4 as dogs
GG 5-7 as dogs
EG 3-3 as dogs
DIG 3-5 as dogs
CLG 0-5 as favorites
EG 2-4 as favorites
TL 5-6 as favorites
Relative to their pre-season odds, these results have drastically exceeded or disappointed expectation. Below are the pre-season futures odds. The two biggest outliers for favorites are Team Liquid and CLG who have both massively underachieved their pre-season favorite status. The two biggest underdog outliers have been Immortals and FlyQuest but Golden Guardians and Dignitas aren't far behind.
As the sample suggests, the underdog trend has NOT been specific to a few teams and is generally league wide. With such a huge gap between the implied win rate and actual win rate of favorites and a lot more parity across the league (besides C9), it's been profitable to take a value-based approach to North America.
My betting through 60 games in the LEC:
20 wins - 19 losses
Average Wager: 1.15 units
Average Odds: +48.0
Return on Investment: +3.23%
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Another game that we took a bit of a dive into on the podcast. 100 Thieves are coming off of a 1-1 week where they were underdogs in both games. They won at +108 underdogs against EG and lost as +172 underdogs to Liquid. As you may have heard, I've reversed course on EG. They are conflicted, awful drafters and all the roster construction concerns we had before the season seem to be coming to light. EG should be much better but the truth is they aren't. Why am I talking about EG? To me, 100 Thieves won that game before it started. EG's draft was atrocious. I am not giving a lot of credit to the EG win. I still don't think 100 Thieves is that good. As a matter of fact I think they might be one of the worst teams in the league.
Dignitas are coming off of and 0-2 week with the challenging schedule of Cloud 9 and FlyQuest. I don't think Dignitas are that good either but I do think they're the better team here.
These two teams are remarkably similar in their metrics and statistics which are quite unimpressive. That said, I think this is more of a 55-45 matchup. Froggen should have a pretty big edge on Ryoma who still hasn't impressed me. The difference between those two is larger than the distance between Huni and Ssumday assuming the two of them give expected average performances. The rest of the map is fairly even. If you think Huni has a minus expectation performance I think it becomes closer to 50/50. I don't like operating under that assumption.
Dignitas won the first meeting but it was a fairly competitive game but Dignitas benefitted from the Soraka/Sett matchup. They also had Ornn in that game.... The 55-45 would imply a small value on 100 Thieves. It's worth mentioning that blue side is 58.3% in North America this split and that Dignitas get blue side for this matchup.
This is a tough choice. I think Dignitas is the slightly better team but they're also the more varient team. I'm going against what I said on the podcast and I'm going to do a light value play on 100 Thieves. 100 Thieves are only 3 - 6 as underdogs but Dignitas are also only 2-2 as favorites. I was able to find a +115 over at 5Dimes (where Dig are -145). That gives us a slight value bump as well.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves +115 (0.5 units)
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TSM +296 vs Cloud 9 -478
I mentioned on the podcast that I'm -1.75 units trying to fade Cloud 9. I'm fairly confident they're going to lose one of these games again this weekend which makes me want to take yet another split quarter unit shot against them. The thing is, this is an awful matchup from a stylistic standpoint for TSM. We mentioned last week in the Liquid matchup that TSM have good early game numbers but that there was a lot of noise in those numbers. They haven't gotten a lot done with those early leads and their lack of emphasis on dragons has gotten them into some awkward scenarios where they have gold leads but are pressured by dragon soul and end up stagnating in the mid game as teams can stall on them.
Cloud 9 are playing at a blistering pace and while I do think that they'll be punished at some point, that TSM aren't the team to do it unless they show a completely different look. I'll take my shot against Cloud 9 tomorrow.
No wager
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CLG +329 vs Liquid -535
I don't have much to say on this one. Liquid should stomp. I'll probably include this in any parlays if I play any.
No wager (will include in parlays if any)
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Evil Geniuses +147 vs FlyQuest -207
I have a fairly strong stance against Evil Geniuses at this point. This team is a complete mess. My colleagues, like myself a few weeks ago, are predicting EG to get it together but I'm not seeing it. There is such a flawed approach by this team that it's putting their players in such poor positions to succeed. FlyQuest are somewhat the opposite. Their game plans have been outstanding and their players have been set up to succeed. Having an MVP caliber performance by PowerofEvil has certainly helped.
This is a drastic coaching/philosophical difference. FlyQuest have a huge edge based on the sample we've seen this season. Evil Geniuses' strongest asset has been Bang but they haven't played around him at all. Outside of that, Svenskeren and Jiizuke have shown some explosive mid/jungle games but have also had a few communication breakdowns. I also think Viper should dominate in the top lane where Kumo has struggled.
As I mentioned, I have a strong stance on this game. I think Evil Geniuses have no idea what they're doing. If you disagree with that, maybe you can talk yourself into EG for the value but I'm going to be laying the big number with FlyQuest.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -180 (1.8 units)
Parlays:
I'm on four out of the five favorites in the LEC and want exposure to Excel as well. If you couldn't tell I feel pretty strongly that the cream will rise to the top in today's slate. This slate looks closer than I think it actually is. I'm going to take a shot with a round robin parlay of all five favorites. The way the math works out this is profitable as long as any combination of 4 out of 5 hit. Some combinations are more profitable than others but as long as 4 out of 5 hit at the odds we have we're in the green. I think that's very likely.
Obviously this is dependent on your risk tolerance and availability. I'm willing to take a larger risk for a larger payout in this kind of situation. If you wish to play this more conservatively adjust as you see fit. Below is how I rate these in terms of confidence:
1) Excel
2) Schalke
3) Rogue
4) G2 eSports
5) Origen
Round Robin "Favorites"
26 bets, 0.1 unit each
Total Risk: 2.6 units
Max Net: ~6.76 units
Worst possible 4/5: +0.56 units
Worst possible 3/5: -1.68 units
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Parlay (3): Liquid ML + C9 ML + FlyQuest ML @ +125 (1 unit)
Obviously this is dependent on your risk tolerance and availability. I'm willing to take a larger risk for a larger payout in this kind of situation. If you wish to play this more conservatively adjust as you see fit. Below is how I rate these in terms of confidence:
1) Excel
2) Schalke
3) Rogue
4) G2 eSports
5) Origen
Round Robin "Favorites"
26 bets, 0.1 unit each
Total Risk: 2.6 units
Max Net: ~6.76 units
Worst possible 4/5: +0.56 units
Worst possible 3/5: -1.68 units
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Parlay (3): Liquid ML + C9 ML + FlyQuest ML @ +125 (1 unit)
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