Saturday, March 21, 2020

March 22nd: LPL, LCS

March 21st Recap:



LPL: 2 - 6 (-3.77 units)

LEC: 2 - 1 (+1.2 units)
LCS: 0 - 1 (-1.67 units)


TOTAL: -4.24 units


(counts both initial and additional BLG wager)


I've been dubbing it "the underdog special" which is what I call a bet where I take an underdog +1.5 to usually win 1 or 1.5 units and then split my exposure on the underdog moneyline and -1.5 spread 3/4-1/4 or something like that. I wasn't thorough and didn't do that for BiliBili this morning because I put the bet in earlier in the week and just straight up forgot to. Lesson learned. Would've been about an even LPL day instead of a big loser.

I don't know how many people would voluntarily take a 1v1 as Zoe vs Cassiopeia but Icon did it and got away with it. Before that was a botched dive by Dominus. Not even close. Dominus sucks... I don't really know what else to say about it. They don't have an identity, they don't have any standout players. It's looking like Dominus and Victory Five are far worse than everyone else.

I don't think TOP played poorly in this series but they certainly drafted terribly, particularly in game two. I don't understand their weird lack of priority on Aphelios so far this season. Photic has just a single game on the best ADC in the game this season (see my twitter for more Aphelios rantings). Not only that but they dont understand that you need to draft a dive comp to deal with him or you're just not going to beat it. TOP aren't bad, as a matter of fact I think they're still better than public perception, but they have some weird thoughts about the game right now.

LEC delivered yet another underdog for us in the form of MAD Lions. Schalke also took care of business in a super disciplined game. Rogue couldn't make it happen. Fnatic showed a new look with triple tank two-core and played a super clean game. Not much Rogue could do without jumping out to a big lead. Draft was too hard to overcome.

Liquid let us down but honestly Evil Geniuses look like they're rounding into the form I anticipated before the season before abandoning them. Could be an upset threat in the playoffs if they make it. Everything else went more or less as expected. I'll be writing up NA in the morning, I've got to comb over the VODs again.


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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


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LPL (China)




Week 3 - Day 7


Victory Five +236 (+1.5 @ -141)

vs
Rogue Warriors -350 (-1.5 @ -102)

Lineups:

V5: Aliez, Daylight, Mole, y4, clx
RW: Crazy, WeiYan, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley

So we're going to get to see Daylight in the jungle instead of As6. He's been a career LDL (the minor league for the LPL) player where he is currently on "87" which is Victory Five's minor league affiliate. I'm not sure he's ever played a game in the LPL but he's been on a few rosters, including Rogue Warriors minor league affiliate over the years.


I know, I've been burned betting against "the substitute" the last two times I've done it this week (Aodi on EDG and Teacherma from WE). 


I'm treating this matchup a lot like I did Schalke vs Vitality today. It feels really wonky laying this kind of money on a team you don't think is very good but Victory Five and Dominus seem significantly worse than even the other teams around the bottom of the table. Rogue Warriors are, at least for now, showing that they might be a little bit better than in previous seasons. This might not be a 15th-17th place team, they're playing more like a 9-12th. They've also faced a fairly difficult schedule of LNG, EDG, Invictus, OMG, Suning, and eStar. 


There's a chance Victory Five's shennanigans screw RW up for a game but I feel pretty confidently that RW are at least a tier better even if the records disagree. Instead of going after the moneyline here I'm going to look at a kill spread. V5 have been getting blown out losing by an average of 10.875 kills per game. All but three losses were by double digits. Rogue Warriors are winning by an average of 10.0 kills although notably they have wins at -1, +1, and +3 kill differential with two others at +15 and +12. Not exactly consistent. That said, I think we're getting a fairly low number here. Victory Five are not a good team. When you have to resort to the kind of tactics they are, as creative as they can be, it's not a good look. They have to hide their players because they aren't on the same level. Rogue Warriors can at least stand toe to toe with good teams in a legitimate fashion. 


I'm also mixing up my approach a bit. Was discussing a few things with a colleague and I'm going to start looking more at kill spreads now that I've got a lot more data available.


Kill Spread (Map 1): RW -8.5 kills @ +150 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread (Map 1): RW -6.5 kills @ -108 (0.27 units)

Kill Spread (Map 2): RW -8.5 kills @ +153 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread (Map 2): RW -6.5 kills @ -105 (0.26 units)

Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +112 (0.5 units)

(all at 5Dimes)

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Suning Gaming -181 (-1.5 @ +160)

vs
LGD Gaming +123 (+1.5 @ -234)

Lineups:

SN: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Chance

Another strange one. LGD looked like they were going to be joining Victory Five at the bottom of the table early in the season. An 0-2 loss to Dominus will do that. But they'rvereally turned it on in the past two matches... at least relative to them. Invictus weren't exactly great in their match and managed to punt game two thanks to some "wonderful" decision making from Leyan. Yea that Leyan, the one from the World Championship.

When I watch the film Suning are a better team. When I look at the players Suning are a better team. There's just something weird about this matchup that makes me think LGD can take a game.


Favorites -369 and shorter are surprisingly only 16-15 this season in the LPL. They also account for 7 of the 9 underdog 2-0's. What's even crazier is that the underdogs have covered the spread 22 out of 31 times. If you do the percentages on that it's pretty close to this implied number but with a little shopping around we can find a decent edge. We're going to roll with the "underdog special" mentioned earlier. LGD look like they're at least building some chemistry and while I don't think this team is particularly good, I do think this should be a competitive series that could go either way. We talk the value in that spot.


Spread: LGD +1.5 maps @ -205 (2.05 units)


Moneyline: LGD +150 (0.5 units)


Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +360 (0.25 units)

(all at 5Dimes)

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Royal Never Give Up +197 (+1.5 @ -167)

vs
FunPlus Phoenix -287 (-1.5 @ +118)

Lineups:

RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

When we recorded the podcast on Wednesday night, this line was -175/+125. Look, RNG lost in "embarassing fashion" to Vici Gaming. Almost everyone I know was on RNG, sharp money, dumb money, DFS, etc. It was a huge upset but Vici played really well. So did EDG in the same night. It's not that embarassing it's just frustrating because people lost money. 


I absolutely love this spot for RNG. 


First of all, we were talking about this team as the best in the league before that loss. Does one series really change that? Second, we're getting a ton of line value now because of that loss. I love fading the reaction in a spot like this. It's almost always an overreaction. Third, FPX haven't exactly been immaculate this season either. They've dropped a few games where they took risks and got punished. Fourth, as mentioned earlier a bit, FunPlus don't appear to be interested in taking Aphelios which seems wrong at the moment. They're banning it 60% of the time and it's not even in the top six champions being banned against them. Lwx only has two games on it (1-1). Fifth is a bit of a narrative, but Betty has to be hearing all of this "Uzi is returning" hype and all the haters after their last series and want to show up. Sixth, another narrative, is that RNG were looking ahead to this match and that's part of the explanation for their poor performance against Vici.


I'm not going nuts here. FunPlus are an excellent team but this line is just absurd. It's one series people!! Take the value. Another "underdog special." A lot of the above trends and situations apply to this match as well.


Spread: RNG +1.5 maps @ -150 (1.5 units)


Moneyline: RNG +240 (0.5 units)


Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +490 (0.25 units)

(all at 5Dimes)


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LCS (North America)


Week 8 - Day 2

Liquid -287 vs Golden Guardians +197

Cloud 9 -1136 vs CLG +543
TSM -313 vs Immortals +222
FlyQuest -154 vs 100 Thieves +108
Evil Geniuses -225 vs Dignitas +175

Liquid vs Golden Guardians

At this point we have to at least consider the possibility that Liquid just tilt out the season. For those that are new this season, they changed how the qualification for the World Championships works. It used to be kind of like golf or NASCAR in that you'd acrue championship points based on results of Spring, Summer, and the end of year Regional Qualifier. So there used to be an incentive to win Spring Split because you'd get a big amount of qualifier points but they did away with that system. There's a chance Liquid are now looking forward to next year.

Do I think that's the case? Maybe. This is a crew of veteran players and I'd like to think they have a little more pride to play this out but the other thing we haven't paused to consider is whether or not Liquid are actually good. I think a lot went wrong for this team this season but I also think they've been a bit unlucky about their timing. The'yre now in a "must win" situation and don't control their destiny even if they win out. The same applies for Golden Guardians however.


Typically when people are down on a team there is a lot of value to be gained but this line is just too far out of range. 


I'm not seeing alternative markets for this anywhere but I'd think about a Liquid kill spread seeing as Golden Guardians have the second largest AMOD in the LCS at 11.55. Liquid have a 10.8 and have won by 9 kills or more in all but one of their victories.


No wager: Liquid kill spreads if you can find them



Cloud 9 vs CLG

Cloud 9 managed to beat 100 Thieves yesterday after giving them Aphelios, Leblanc, Ornn, and Tahm Kench, four of the most important picks in the game right now. They also showed that they, too, have the Kalista top in their arsenal as a tank counter. I absolutely love what Cloud 9 is doing. They aren't taking their foot off the pedal and while I tend to not like when teams hand over so many power picks, the fact that they're beating teams anyway shows what we already knew, that they're in a class of their own in the LCS. I think yesterday's game was surprisingly low in kills for a Cloud 9 game. 

Cloud 9 have taken the first tower in every single game since losing first tower to Golden Guardians in week one. The'yre averaging 15.3 kills per win and 10.8 kill average margin of victory (AMOV). CLG have been keeping a lot of games close (7.83 AMOD) against a lot of opponents, particularly since moving to Pobelter. Including losses by 15 and 10 in their last two. CLG are severely outclassed here and Cloud 9 don't appear to be taking the foot off the gas. 


CLG kept this within 7 kills last time but I'm not sure they'll do the same this time around. 


Prop: C9 first tower @ -263 (1.315 units)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -161 (0.805 units)
Kill Spread: C9 -7.5 kills @ -167 (0.4175 units)
Kill spread: C9 -9.5 kills @ -114 (0.285 units)
Kill spread: C9 -10.5 kills @ +103 (0.25 units)
(all at 5Dimes)


TSM vs Immortals

TSM look really good. This is what I'd hoped this team would look like all season long and why I had futures wagers on them going into the season. Early on they were having issues in the mid game and had a tendency to ignore dragon fights. They've made all the adjustments and appear to be a legitimate title contender at this point. 

Immortals are falling apart at the seems and while I don't think this team is bad, they're crashing back down to earth as we predicted. They were utterly smashed by FlyQuest playing a sub yesterday in what I'd consider a relatively even draft. TSM look slightly better or at the very least the same level as FlyQuest and I think we can expect a similar result. 


TSM are getting first blood in 80% of their games, have an average margin of victory of 9.77 and only have 3 games that they didn't win by double digits. 


Prop: TSM first blood @ -196 (0.88 units)

Kill Spread: TSM -6.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -7.5 kills @ +107 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -8.5 kills @ +128 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: TSM -9.5 kills @ +154 (0.25 units)
(all at 5Dimes)


FlyQuest vs 100 Thieves

FlyQuest look quite good as well, even while subbing in Solo in the top lane yesterday. For those that are new, Solo has been a big of a journeyman top laner in the LCS over the years. Back and forth between the minors and majors. He's had a few good seasons as a full time player but has mostly been on teams that are very good where he's had stiff competition ahead of him (Cloud 9). He's a solid player. I can only imagine they're doing this because they want a better weakside presence or to threaten some new things in the draft because Viper is better in more or less every way but maybe not as a weakside player. Weakside is basically that they need him to minimize losses while they invest resources elsewhere on the map. It's about losing gracefully and outplaying 1v2's and such.

100 Thieves have been rolling a bit and have remained very competitive in a lot of their games. They also only beaten one "good" team in their last five weeks and that was Eveil Geniuses a few weeks back when EG had an egregious draft that borderline lost them the game before it started.

100 Thieves are challenging because my gut and eyes tell me they're fraudulent but they've also played much better in the past two weeks than they did in the stretch before then. I think FlyQuest take care of business here. They're still tied with TSM and could earn the 2nd seed for playoffs which could be a huge advantage given the new format for playoffs.

100 Thieves have either played very low kill games or very high kill games and very few in the middle. They've gone 19, 15, 27, 9, 34, and 29 in their last six. Three of those high totals have been wins. Over the course of the season, 100 Thieves have lost most of their games with very low kill totals including a few sub-5 kill games. 100 Thieves, besides Ssumday, want to play slow and controlled. So do FlyQuest and they're better at it. FlyQuest won the last meeting between these two 8-1. FlyQuest have won by at least 7 kills in all but two games this season (5 and 6).

This is a bit higher risk but I'm going to take a stab at some alternate kill totals. I think this game goes under. Both teams in high pressure situations, they'll be playing tight and serious. 100 Thieves have their season on the line and FlyQuest have 2nd place on the line. Be warned that the evidence suggests otherwise for the most part. FlyQuest have the worst margin of defeat in the LCS. When they lose they lose big so if you think 100 Thieves have a chance in this game I'd suggest avoiding it altogether or taking their moneyline. I think FlyQuest take care of business. The mid lane matchup is just such a huge difference.

Kill Total: UNDER 18.5 @ +165 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 19.5 @ +130 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: FlyQuest -3.5 kills @ -114 (0.285 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -4.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -5.5 kills @ +125 (0.25 units)
(all at 5Dimes)

Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas
I like Dignitas with Akaadian in the lineup. His willingness to get the game rolling early has really helped sure up their early game but they've only beaten CLG in their last six matches. Evil Geniuses have been looking a lot better recently but I do think they've benefitted a bit from other teams mistakes both in game and in the draft. Can't really ask much else than for them to take care of business in those spots though. They've been much more decisive about taking skirmishes and fights and it appears that Bang is bought in to the fact that this team isn't going to play around him and has just embraced the bloodbath! Evil Geniuses look good and I think they take care of this matchup.

That said I do think this moneyline is a tad rich for a team with as high a variance as EG. Dignitas aren't stupid and are capable, especially with Akaadian in the lineup, of running away with a lead. The last time these two teams met it was during Dignitas' early season three game winning streak and EG weren't remotely close to as good as they are now since they were figuring out who they were for about six weeks. 

Dignitas have been keeping games close recently with losses of -11, -9, +3, and -6 kills but the +3 and -6 were against 100 Thieves and Golden Guardians, two non-elite teams. Evil Geniuses have also been trending the opposite direction with wins of +13, +15, +10, and +9 in their four wins in a row. 

EG look like the team I thought they'd be before the season and while I still think their style can potentially blow up in their face, I do think they're feeling confident and know who they are enough taht I'm going to side with them in this spot. 

Kill Spread: EG -8.5 kills @ +180 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: EG -7.5 kills @ +140 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: EG -6.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)


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Other Leagues



none yet



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Parlays:

none for now

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