March 19th Recap:
LPL: 1 - 2 (-2.07 units)
TOTAL: 1 - 2 (-2.07 units)
I'd sincerely like to know why on earth Dominus wouldn't ban the one champion that is good in the current metagame and overlaps with the third string mid laners champion pool (Pantheon). Not only that, but I have absolutely no idea what the hell Dominus was doing in either of these games. Xiye not managing his waves correctly in the first four levels on Lissandra is borderline unforgivable. Mark, Xiye, and Xiaopeng invading at the 5:40 mark with no vision of three people for absolutely no reason other than to ward a red buff that YOU KNOW IS COMING UP and WITHOUT YOUR EZREAL. Every lane losing as well and all of that is just in game one. This team is officially on my "flagged" list. It's one thing to have a bad game, it's a completely different thing to show a complete lack of understanding of the fundamentals of high level play.
Invictus gave us yet another disrespectful but winning performance in what looks to be a return to their early 2019 and all of 2018 form all over again. Here's the long and short of it. Invictus are really REALLY good but they're going to clown around and limit test a lot so they're going to punt games to significantly weaker teams more often than not. It's going to make Invictus -1.5 more or less unbettable even when it looks like it can't possibly lose. Invictus spreads have lost me more than any other wager over the past three years and it's not even close. Underdog spread or bust with IG until they prove otherwise.
FunPlus, along with RNG, remain a relatively safe haven and can be trusted to take care of business even if it's in an unorthodox way sometimes. To me, they're the two best teams in the LPL.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 3 - Day 5
Rogue Warriors +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
LNG eSports -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Lineups:
RW: Crazy, WeiYan, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Asura, Duan
Rogue Warriors have looked better than I thought they would this season especially with Crazy in the lineup. That said, I'm not totally buying that they've turned over a new leaf. EDG aren't as good as their name anymore as they're adjusting to their substitutions (more on that later) so that win isn't quite as impressive as we're accustomed to. The back and forth slugfest of a series against Invictus isn't convincing me either, especially after what we've seen from Invictus since we've returned from the break. Every underdog is going to look better than they are against that team.
This is a series that seems pretty split down the middle in terms of public perception but I think LNG get the job done. I'm not as bullish on it as I was on the podcast last night where I claimed I'd take the LNG -1.5 but I am going to steer clear of this one. Rogue Warriors is certainly a value, I'm just skeptical of their actual strength as a team. They feel fraudulent to me while LNG look like an actual middle of the table, possibly 7-8th playoff contender.
Moneyline: LNG -190 (1.9 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +160 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
---
JD Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
vs
EDward Gaming +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
Lineups:
JDG: 705, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
In a weird turn of events, EDG are starting Aodi immediately after Xiaoxiang put in a decent performance in their last match including a highlight game on Fiora, something that could potentially earn EDG some equity in drafts moving forward. Aodi hasn't started a game in the LPL since 2018 when he was on Vici Gaming. He has a 10 - 31 career record (2 - 8 in his last ten), albeit primarily on a Vici team that was the worst team in the LPL for years. He's played a lot of Darius but his next most played champions lineup well in the current metagame. Ornn, Aatrox, Gnar and Camille. It's been a long enough time that I don't want to just automatically call Aodi bad because he could have something cooked up, but he hasn't exactly been impressive even on bad teams in his career. I'm skeptical.
The only thing keeping me from doubling the weight on this play is that, historically, Scout has had Yagao's number. EDG have won the last four regular season games in a row (2 in Spring 2019, 2 in Summer 2019). In the Spring games, Scout absolutely dominated both games on Leblanc against Yagao's Ryze, often considered a counterpick to Leblanc. He's done this through a combination of roams, jungle assistance, and straight up individual outplays. I'll say that having ClearLove, a Hall of Fame level jungler previously definitely helped but I just thought this was worth noting.
This line is already on the move as it ticked up from -350 and I'm assuming it'll run a bit more than that. I'm going to lay the map spread with JDG. This team is beginning to look like a title contender and even when they've buried themselves in a hole in games they seem to always find a way out of it. JDG have 2-0'd as favorites all but once this season and while that one time was against a similarly situated BiliBili, I think JDG should smash this. Not only are four of the members the same as last year and want some revenge, but ClearLove is no longer there for EDG and they're playing a substitute top laner that hasn't played an LPL game since 2018.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -113 (2.26 units)(Nitrogen)
---
Vici Gaming +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
Royal Never Give Up -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Maestro
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
So Vici finally looked like they might be putting it all together and they're going to run out Aix instead of Chieftain. The last we saw of Aix was game one against Team WE last week where he was more or less invisible as Lee Sin. His lanes didn't exactly do him any favors but when you're playing Lee Sin and don't create or even find any action early in the game then why are you playing Lee Sin. Aix hasn't been terrible over his career but hasn't been impressive. This is a weird roster decision to me but hey, it's the LPL so who knows.
As mentioned earlier, RNG have been like catnip for bettors. They've been very reliable and look to me like the best team in the LPL. They're intelligent, disciplined, tremendously talented, and maintain control of almost every single game they play meaning they're way less likely to lose to non-elite teams than a lot of the top LPL squads because of their lower variance style. There's a chnace that Vici cook something weird up but RNG haven't struck me as the type of team that's going to start trying new things right now. They've been very technically sound and are one of the few LPL teams I'll confidently bet a 2-0 on.
Favorite spreads have covered in 19 out of 45 matches and RNG are 1-2 against the map spread this season but oen of those was against BLG who looked much better before the hiatus and the other was against a good OMG team.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -154 (3.08 units)(Nitrogen)
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------------------------
none yet
Rogue Warriors +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
LNG eSports -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Lineups:
RW: Crazy, WeiYan, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Asura, Duan
Rogue Warriors have looked better than I thought they would this season especially with Crazy in the lineup. That said, I'm not totally buying that they've turned over a new leaf. EDG aren't as good as their name anymore as they're adjusting to their substitutions (more on that later) so that win isn't quite as impressive as we're accustomed to. The back and forth slugfest of a series against Invictus isn't convincing me either, especially after what we've seen from Invictus since we've returned from the break. Every underdog is going to look better than they are against that team.
This is a series that seems pretty split down the middle in terms of public perception but I think LNG get the job done. I'm not as bullish on it as I was on the podcast last night where I claimed I'd take the LNG -1.5 but I am going to steer clear of this one. Rogue Warriors is certainly a value, I'm just skeptical of their actual strength as a team. They feel fraudulent to me while LNG look like an actual middle of the table, possibly 7-8th playoff contender.
Moneyline: LNG -190 (1.9 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +160 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
---
JD Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
vs
EDward Gaming +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
Lineups:
JDG: 705, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
In a weird turn of events, EDG are starting Aodi immediately after Xiaoxiang put in a decent performance in their last match including a highlight game on Fiora, something that could potentially earn EDG some equity in drafts moving forward. Aodi hasn't started a game in the LPL since 2018 when he was on Vici Gaming. He has a 10 - 31 career record (2 - 8 in his last ten), albeit primarily on a Vici team that was the worst team in the LPL for years. He's played a lot of Darius but his next most played champions lineup well in the current metagame. Ornn, Aatrox, Gnar and Camille. It's been a long enough time that I don't want to just automatically call Aodi bad because he could have something cooked up, but he hasn't exactly been impressive even on bad teams in his career. I'm skeptical.
The only thing keeping me from doubling the weight on this play is that, historically, Scout has had Yagao's number. EDG have won the last four regular season games in a row (2 in Spring 2019, 2 in Summer 2019). In the Spring games, Scout absolutely dominated both games on Leblanc against Yagao's Ryze, often considered a counterpick to Leblanc. He's done this through a combination of roams, jungle assistance, and straight up individual outplays. I'll say that having ClearLove, a Hall of Fame level jungler previously definitely helped but I just thought this was worth noting.
This line is already on the move as it ticked up from -350 and I'm assuming it'll run a bit more than that. I'm going to lay the map spread with JDG. This team is beginning to look like a title contender and even when they've buried themselves in a hole in games they seem to always find a way out of it. JDG have 2-0'd as favorites all but once this season and while that one time was against a similarly situated BiliBili, I think JDG should smash this. Not only are four of the members the same as last year and want some revenge, but ClearLove is no longer there for EDG and they're playing a substitute top laner that hasn't played an LPL game since 2018.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -113 (2.26 units)(Nitrogen)
---
Vici Gaming +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
Royal Never Give Up -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Maestro
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
As mentioned earlier, RNG have been like catnip for bettors. They've been very reliable and look to me like the best team in the LPL. They're intelligent, disciplined, tremendously talented, and maintain control of almost every single game they play meaning they're way less likely to lose to non-elite teams than a lot of the top LPL squads because of their lower variance style. There's a chnace that Vici cook something weird up but RNG haven't struck me as the type of team that's going to start trying new things right now. They've been very technically sound and are one of the few LPL teams I'll confidently bet a 2-0 on.
Favorite spreads have covered in 19 out of 45 matches and RNG are 1-2 against the map spread this season but oen of those was against BLG who looked much better before the hiatus and the other was against a good OMG team.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -154 (3.08 units)(Nitrogen)
------------------------
LEC (Europe)
Week 8 - Day 1
(take two!)
MAD Lions -426 vs SK Gaming +323
Schalke 04 +229 vs Misfits -290
Excel eSports +381 vs Fnatic -516
Origen -701 vs Team Vitality +494
G2 eSports -415 vs Rogue +316
(lines from Pinnacle, will update the sheet later, just wanted to give an idea where my mind is at for you all)
We went into a lot of detail on this slate prior to the week postponement that you can find on Episode 48 of The Gold Card Podcast (0:45:15) and briefly touched on any updates during last nights show, Episode 49 (.1:17:32). I'm giving a slight edge to underdogs with the extra week to prepare but that's somewhat counteracted by the playoff dynamic. Certain teams are playing for playoff spots while others aren't. I'm not sure how many spoilers we'll have.
As a refresher for a lot of the new people, Europe has been very chalky this season:
Favorites are 54-16 in the LEC this season
5 of the underdog wins are Misfits
3 of the underdog wins are Excel
3 of the underdog wins are MAD Lions
2 of the underdog wins are the underdog winning in the 9th vs 10th matchup both times
---
SK are starting Ventair in the top lane from their representative team in the Prime League which is Germany's European Masters league. His metrics aren't spectacular. Ahead in CS at 15 only 16.7% of the time, -328 gold differential at 15, first blood victim 11.1% but he does have good efficiency numbers as he deals a lot of damage with limited resources. I haven't watched a lot of SK Prime tape but the few games I have watched he's mediocre considering how bad this team was. I get the feeling this move was more about Sacre's motivation or attitude than Ventair's performance and SK are just looking for a change of pace. If you can find a kill spread of -7.5 or better I like MAD there because their average margin of victory is 8.125 but I'm not laying 426 and I don't think SK Gaming have a real shot at winning this with MAD having playoff hopes.
No wager
---
I'm going to take a shot at the Schalke upset here for a few reasons.
First, they've looked significantly improved in recent weeks and are an excellent mid and late game decision making team. Second, I have a feeling Misfits might be a little bit tight or over-cautious as they're battling for playoff seeding and that they might not come out with a blazing fast, execution-based early game approach. Third, if it gets to that mid to late game these teams are 50/50. Fourth, Misfits haven't shown the ability to win games when the Razork/Febiven combo gets stymied and I think that could very well happen. Fifth, as I've mentioned, is that underdogs stand to benefit more from the week off, especially ones with nothing to lose. Finally, Schalke still have pretty good individual players that can run away with a game by themselves, Abbedagge and Odoamne especially.
I like the kill spread here quite a bit if you can find it since Schalke have an average margin of defeat of 6.54. IF you can get a 6.5 or 7.5 that's awesome. I'll be on a light moneyline wager.
---
Moneyline: Schalke +240 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
(take two!)
MAD Lions -426 vs SK Gaming +323
Schalke 04 +229 vs Misfits -290
Excel eSports +381 vs Fnatic -516
Origen -701 vs Team Vitality +494
G2 eSports -415 vs Rogue +316
(lines from Pinnacle, will update the sheet later, just wanted to give an idea where my mind is at for you all)
We went into a lot of detail on this slate prior to the week postponement that you can find on Episode 48 of The Gold Card Podcast (0:45:15) and briefly touched on any updates during last nights show, Episode 49 (.1:17:32). I'm giving a slight edge to underdogs with the extra week to prepare but that's somewhat counteracted by the playoff dynamic. Certain teams are playing for playoff spots while others aren't. I'm not sure how many spoilers we'll have.
As a refresher for a lot of the new people, Europe has been very chalky this season:
Favorites are 54-16 in the LEC this season
5 of the underdog wins are Misfits
3 of the underdog wins are Excel
3 of the underdog wins are MAD Lions
2 of the underdog wins are the underdog winning in the 9th vs 10th matchup both times
---
SK are starting Ventair in the top lane from their representative team in the Prime League which is Germany's European Masters league. His metrics aren't spectacular. Ahead in CS at 15 only 16.7% of the time, -328 gold differential at 15, first blood victim 11.1% but he does have good efficiency numbers as he deals a lot of damage with limited resources. I haven't watched a lot of SK Prime tape but the few games I have watched he's mediocre considering how bad this team was. I get the feeling this move was more about Sacre's motivation or attitude than Ventair's performance and SK are just looking for a change of pace. If you can find a kill spread of -7.5 or better I like MAD there because their average margin of victory is 8.125 but I'm not laying 426 and I don't think SK Gaming have a real shot at winning this with MAD having playoff hopes.
No wager
---
I'm going to take a shot at the Schalke upset here for a few reasons.
First, they've looked significantly improved in recent weeks and are an excellent mid and late game decision making team. Second, I have a feeling Misfits might be a little bit tight or over-cautious as they're battling for playoff seeding and that they might not come out with a blazing fast, execution-based early game approach. Third, if it gets to that mid to late game these teams are 50/50. Fourth, Misfits haven't shown the ability to win games when the Razork/Febiven combo gets stymied and I think that could very well happen. Fifth, as I've mentioned, is that underdogs stand to benefit more from the week off, especially ones with nothing to lose. Finally, Schalke still have pretty good individual players that can run away with a game by themselves, Abbedagge and Odoamne especially.
I like the kill spread here quite a bit if you can find it since Schalke have an average margin of defeat of 6.54. IF you can get a 6.5 or 7.5 that's awesome. I'll be on a light moneyline wager.
---
Moneyline: Schalke +240 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
This is a must win game for Excel who have their work cut out for them if they're going to make playoffs. They have to face Fnatic
and G2, back-to-back this weekend. Fnatic simply need a single win to lock up a
playoff spot but will likely be competing for a top seed as they trail first
place G2 eSports by only a game.
The first meeting between
these teams a really close, back-and-forth affair with nearly a kill per minute. I think YoungBuck is one of the better coaches in the league and, as we all know, coached Fnatic for a long time including a few "miracle" runs in the World Championships and towards the end of regular seasons to secure higher playoff seeding. He knows those players and gets an extra week to prepare and has gone on runs like the one Excel need here before.
These factors combined with the "must-win" element and the fact that I don't think Excel are as bad as their record make be absolutely love them as a huge underdog in this spot. The kill spread is +9.5 in a lot of places. If you have access to that fire away. I'll simply be on a light moneyline wager.
Also, if you're superstitious, Excel have gone 1-1 every single week this season.
---
Moneyline: Excel +385 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Origen don't lose to bad teams and while I think Vitality have been better recently, Origen aren't the type of team you want this huge of an underdog against. I don't like any of the markets in this game besides maybe Vitality first blood if you have that offering.
No wager
---
There was a really entertaining episode of Post-Game Lobby with Perkz and coach Grabbz as guests that sheds some light on what they think about some of these other teams. G2 respect Rogue's players a lot and for that reason I think they smash them.... weird right? G2 tend to clown around a lot but when they want to beat someone they take care of business, as we saw last week against Fnatic. Typically when they're taking things seriously they're a much lower kill team. Conveniently for us, G2 also have extremely high kill totals in their games. I like the under 28.5 kills if you can find it. I don't hate a play on the Rogue moneyline but I'll be passing on it this time around.
No wager: (under 28.5 kills if available)
Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
none for now
none for now
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