March 4th Recap:
LCK: 1 - 1 (+0.23 units)
Parlays: 0 - 1 (-1.0 units)
TOTAL: 1 - 2 (-0.77 units)
Hanwha... refer to my twitter feed for my thoughts on this series. I typed.... a lot. The short version is that I inaccurately weighted how much individual players matter in this metagame unless it's a drastic difference. Hanwha's drafts put their players in such an awful position in these games that it's tough to judge anything other than the coaching staff. I still don't think APK or their players are good but APK's coaching staff has been setting them up well in the drafts even if it's predictable.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 5 - Day 2
Gen.G -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
vs
Sandbox +395 (+1.5 @ +118)
Trends:
Gen.G are 7 - 1 straight up as favorites (loss to T1)
Gen.G are 4 - 4 against the spread as favorites (failed to cover vs AF, DRX, T1, KT)
Sandbox are 1 - 3 straight up as underdogs (win vs DWG)
Sandox are 3 - 1 against the spread as underdogs (loss to T1)
Tale of the Tape:
Gen.G:
0.91 damage per gold, 85% first blood, 65% first tower
49.2% of wards cleared, 3.8 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +1745 , CS @ 15: +10.2
Sandbox:
0.976 damage per gold, 40% first blood, 50% first tower
49.9% of wards cleared, 4.0 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +307 , CS @ 15: +7.8
Sandbox are a difficult team to figure out. In some ways they're a lot like DAMWON in that they'd prefer to throw themselves at their opponent to solve problems but they're a bit more disciplined than DAMWON is. That doesn't mean they're a disciplined team which has been their problem. Against T1 they started off game one decently before a dragon fight and a flank by Canna's Sett blew the game wide open. Then they just straight up lost to KT Rolster who, admittedly, played very well on the day. Notably Sandbox's only game win was with Ray in at top for KT and he got rolled by Summit. I think Sandbox are a decent team but if you just look at their record and opponents you'd think they're struggling badly this season. To me, Sandbox have had a few strange ones but have mostly showed a good understanding of the game but they're suffering from a lot of the same problems they did last season. Sandbox look outstanding with a lead and can close against anybody but have yet to win a game from any sort of notable deficit.
Gen.G have looked clinical. They boast the LCK's best early game rating (via Oracle's Elixir), a completely different look than this team has historically had over the last few years. Their +226 gold differential is best in the league. Gen.G haven't trailed by more than 1878 gold this entire season (excludes ending pushes which distort final tally). That includes losses... that's unreal. Gen.G aren't quite the numbers superstars that Cloud 9 have been in North America but they're somewhat comprable given that Gen.G have played 8 more games than Cloud 9 so far.
So really we're handicapping what we think the likelihood is that Sandbox can get a lead in this series. If we assume a high success rate in closing games, which I think is appropriate for Sandbox, how often do we think they get a lead on Gen.G? -167 implies a ~62.5% probability that Gen.G 2-0 this series. If you think there is a greater than 62.5% chance that Sandbox are able to get a lead in one of these games and close it then the Sandbox spread is the way to go here. Based on what we've seen so far this season I do not see that as the case. Given Gen.G's impeccable
Sandbox have shown an inability to recover from any sort of deficit this season and we saw that on full display against KT Rolster who were, coincidentally, another good early game team. Gen.G are significantly better early than KT Rolster and are generally a much higher quality of team. With underdog spreads covering 26 out of 42 opportunities in the LCK this split the plus value on the Sandbox spread looks mighty tempting but I'm going the other way in this match.
I've discussed how much draft matters even more than usual in this metagame and how nothing is entirely for sure, hence the crazy cover rate of underdog spreads this season, but I actually think the value is on the Gen.G spread in this spot. Sandbox aren't a bad team but this is a really tough matchup given Gen.G's outstanding early game this season and we've seen how much Sandbox struggles against teams with strong early games.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -155 (1.55 units)(5Dimes)
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T1 -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
vs
Afreeca +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
Trends:
T1 are 5 - 1 straight up as favorites (loss to HLE)
T1 are 4 - 2 against the spread as favorites (failed to cover vs HLE, DWG)
T1 have gone to three games in 4 out of 8 series
Afreeca are 0 - 2 straight up as underdogs (losses to Gen.G and DRX)
Afreeca are 2 - 0 against the spread as underdogs
Afreeca have gone to three games in 7 out of 8 series
Tale of the Tape:
T1:
0.988 damage per gold, 40% first blood, 35% first tower
50.4% of wards cleared, 4.2 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: -119 , CS @ 15: +6.7
Afreeca:
1.08 damage per gold, 65% first blood, 52% first tower
50.1% of wards cleared, 4.0 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: -153 , CS @ 15: -7.8
Ever since T1 have figured their draft issues from the first five series or so they've looked significantly stronger. Even after their "rough start" they've only dropped a single series this season and have defeated the other top teams DragonX and Gen.G. T1's numbers don't pop off the screen as much as the other top teams due to that rough start and a handful of come from behind wins early in the season impacting this sample. This metagame is excellent for the way T1 like to play League of Legends. They're so patient and disciplined and make very few mistakes which is exactly what you want to be doing right now.
Afreeca have played three games in every series this season besides their opening 2 - 0 against Griffin. This has been against all but T1 so a full blend of strong and weak competition. To me, Afreeca are on the cusp even with their 13 - 10 game record. They haven't shown the consistency of the top three teams (Gen.G, DRX, T1) but they've looked better to me than the rest of the field and if you consider the bit of roster shuffling they've done it becomes a bit more understandable. Afreeca's numbers look like a top team except for their differentials. They've had a few really weird drafts but their compositions are mostly philosophically aligned in what they want to be doing.
The biggest mismatch in this series is Afreeca's combination of mid laners against Faker. It's been awhile since we've seen Fly against Faker. You'd have to go back to August 25th with last year's Gen.G lineup with Faker on Neeko both games against Fly's Lux and Zoe. ALL IN has never played Faker professionally. With the level Faker is playing at recently this can't be ignored but on the top side of the map you could argue Kiin against either of T1's top laners is a large mismatch even considering Canna's excellent performance so far this season.
This series feels a lot closer than this number to me. Statistically these two teams are remarkably similar although, as I mentioned, T1's weird early season drafts contributed some noise to their numbers. Afreeca have shown the ability to take games off of the LCK's top teams and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't do the same in this spot. While I think T1 are very well-positioned in this metagame I actually think they've looked the most vulnerable of the top three teams even though they have match wins against Gen.G and DragonX. Their willingness to cede early leads can get them in trouble against strong teams.
Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -145 (1.45 units)(5Dimes)
Prop: Exact T1 2 - 1 @ +246 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
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Gen.G -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
vs
Sandbox +395 (+1.5 @ +118)
Trends:
Gen.G are 7 - 1 straight up as favorites (loss to T1)
Gen.G are 4 - 4 against the spread as favorites (failed to cover vs AF, DRX, T1, KT)
Sandbox are 1 - 3 straight up as underdogs (win vs DWG)
Sandox are 3 - 1 against the spread as underdogs (loss to T1)
Tale of the Tape:
Gen.G:
0.91 damage per gold, 85% first blood, 65% first tower
49.2% of wards cleared, 3.8 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +1745 , CS @ 15: +10.2
Sandbox:
0.976 damage per gold, 40% first blood, 50% first tower
49.9% of wards cleared, 4.0 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: +307 , CS @ 15: +7.8
Sandbox are a difficult team to figure out. In some ways they're a lot like DAMWON in that they'd prefer to throw themselves at their opponent to solve problems but they're a bit more disciplined than DAMWON is. That doesn't mean they're a disciplined team which has been their problem. Against T1 they started off game one decently before a dragon fight and a flank by Canna's Sett blew the game wide open. Then they just straight up lost to KT Rolster who, admittedly, played very well on the day. Notably Sandbox's only game win was with Ray in at top for KT and he got rolled by Summit. I think Sandbox are a decent team but if you just look at their record and opponents you'd think they're struggling badly this season. To me, Sandbox have had a few strange ones but have mostly showed a good understanding of the game but they're suffering from a lot of the same problems they did last season. Sandbox look outstanding with a lead and can close against anybody but have yet to win a game from any sort of notable deficit.
Gen.G have looked clinical. They boast the LCK's best early game rating (via Oracle's Elixir), a completely different look than this team has historically had over the last few years. Their +226 gold differential is best in the league. Gen.G haven't trailed by more than 1878 gold this entire season (excludes ending pushes which distort final tally). That includes losses... that's unreal. Gen.G aren't quite the numbers superstars that Cloud 9 have been in North America but they're somewhat comprable given that Gen.G have played 8 more games than Cloud 9 so far.
So really we're handicapping what we think the likelihood is that Sandbox can get a lead in this series. If we assume a high success rate in closing games, which I think is appropriate for Sandbox, how often do we think they get a lead on Gen.G? -167 implies a ~62.5% probability that Gen.G 2-0 this series. If you think there is a greater than 62.5% chance that Sandbox are able to get a lead in one of these games and close it then the Sandbox spread is the way to go here. Based on what we've seen so far this season I do not see that as the case. Given Gen.G's impeccable
Sandbox have shown an inability to recover from any sort of deficit this season and we saw that on full display against KT Rolster who were, coincidentally, another good early game team. Gen.G are significantly better early than KT Rolster and are generally a much higher quality of team. With underdog spreads covering 26 out of 42 opportunities in the LCK this split the plus value on the Sandbox spread looks mighty tempting but I'm going the other way in this match.
I've discussed how much draft matters even more than usual in this metagame and how nothing is entirely for sure, hence the crazy cover rate of underdog spreads this season, but I actually think the value is on the Gen.G spread in this spot. Sandbox aren't a bad team but this is a really tough matchup given Gen.G's outstanding early game this season and we've seen how much Sandbox struggles against teams with strong early games.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -155 (1.55 units)(5Dimes)
----
T1 -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
vs
Afreeca +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
Trends:
T1 are 5 - 1 straight up as favorites (loss to HLE)
T1 are 4 - 2 against the spread as favorites (failed to cover vs HLE, DWG)
T1 have gone to three games in 4 out of 8 series
Afreeca are 0 - 2 straight up as underdogs (losses to Gen.G and DRX)
Afreeca are 2 - 0 against the spread as underdogs
Afreeca have gone to three games in 7 out of 8 series
Tale of the Tape:
T1:
0.988 damage per gold, 40% first blood, 35% first tower
50.4% of wards cleared, 4.2 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: -119 , CS @ 15: +6.7
Afreeca:
1.08 damage per gold, 65% first blood, 52% first tower
50.1% of wards cleared, 4.0 wards per min
Differentials: Gold @ 15: -153 , CS @ 15: -7.8
Ever since T1 have figured their draft issues from the first five series or so they've looked significantly stronger. Even after their "rough start" they've only dropped a single series this season and have defeated the other top teams DragonX and Gen.G. T1's numbers don't pop off the screen as much as the other top teams due to that rough start and a handful of come from behind wins early in the season impacting this sample. This metagame is excellent for the way T1 like to play League of Legends. They're so patient and disciplined and make very few mistakes which is exactly what you want to be doing right now.
Afreeca have played three games in every series this season besides their opening 2 - 0 against Griffin. This has been against all but T1 so a full blend of strong and weak competition. To me, Afreeca are on the cusp even with their 13 - 10 game record. They haven't shown the consistency of the top three teams (Gen.G, DRX, T1) but they've looked better to me than the rest of the field and if you consider the bit of roster shuffling they've done it becomes a bit more understandable. Afreeca's numbers look like a top team except for their differentials. They've had a few really weird drafts but their compositions are mostly philosophically aligned in what they want to be doing.
The biggest mismatch in this series is Afreeca's combination of mid laners against Faker. It's been awhile since we've seen Fly against Faker. You'd have to go back to August 25th with last year's Gen.G lineup with Faker on Neeko both games against Fly's Lux and Zoe. ALL IN has never played Faker professionally. With the level Faker is playing at recently this can't be ignored but on the top side of the map you could argue Kiin against either of T1's top laners is a large mismatch even considering Canna's excellent performance so far this season.
This series feels a lot closer than this number to me. Statistically these two teams are remarkably similar although, as I mentioned, T1's weird early season drafts contributed some noise to their numbers. Afreeca have shown the ability to take games off of the LCK's top teams and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't do the same in this spot. While I think T1 are very well-positioned in this metagame I actually think they've looked the most vulnerable of the top three teams even though they have match wins against Gen.G and DragonX. Their willingness to cede early leads can get them in trouble against strong teams.
Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -145 (1.45 units)(5Dimes)
Prop: Exact T1 2 - 1 @ +246 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
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Parlays:
none today
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