Analyzing My 2018 in Handicapping League of Legends
We had a blast going through this thought experiment this year and I'll be aiming to do so again with the new season coming up in a few weeks! Anyway here's my results for 2018!
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FIRST HALF STATS
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End of Season Stats (by region):
A few of these won't add up correctly because I made corrections about halfway through so some of the props and O/U counts might be wrong since, for quite some time, I had them labeled the same. I went through and made the corrections within the regional sheets I have but not in my overall sheet. Other than that there shouldn't be many discrepencies and if there are they're probably from me inputting something wrong.
North American LCS
Win-Loss: 110 - 93 (54.187%)
Net Units Gained: +13.1115 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -0.1473%
Avg Wager: 2.2145 units
Moneyline: 66 - 46 (+20.6295 units)
Live/In-Game: 26 - 21 (-0.353 units)
Over/Unders: 15 - 19 (-7.625 units)
Other Props: 2 - 6 (+0.22 units)
Handicapped: 1 - 1 (+0.24 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 12 (25%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 34 -34 (50%)
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 32 - 24 (57.14%)
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 16 - 13 (55.17%)
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 5 (68.75%)
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 7 - 3 (70%)
6+ unit Wagers: 6 - 2 (75%)
I had one thing VERY wrong going into the Spring Season which was 100 Thieves and had I been able to admit I was wrong about them sooner I could have had a monster year in NA as well. Other than that I was more or less right on the money with my preseason read of the region. My tiers were more or less exactly right by both the end of Summer and really by the end of the year other than 100 Thieves. The best of one angle scared my quite a bit and after a few really rough swings in the middle of the Spring Split I decided that I'd be limiting myself to three units on all but the most exceptional plays just based on the variance of best of ones. I had a good Summer in NA but if I had to go back I would have limited my wagers just like I did again. I think it was the correct call.
Goals for Next Year:
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European LCS
Win-Loss: 92 - 72 (56.1%)
Net Units Gained: +3.88
Avg Yield per Wager: +0.522%
Avg Wager: 2.055 units
Moneyline: 49 - 49 (-7.895 units)
Live/In-Game: 12 - 3 (+2.71 units)
Over/Unders: 19 - 9 (+8.4115 units)
Other Props: 10 - 6 (+3.36 units)
Handicapped: 2 - 5 (-2.41 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 7 (%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 36 - 33
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 16 - 17
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 9
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 5
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 0
6+ unit Wagers: 2 - 1
Lost a single 10 unit live wager on Roccat that lost me most of the gains I would've had in Europe. It was my lone 6+ unit loss and it was a stupid, tilted mistake. Similarly to North America, I had an excellent read on Europe with the exception of we'll call it 1.5 teams. Spring Vitality and Spring Schalke 04. I held on to my "Vitality will come crashing down" thought process for way too long. It ended up being true to a certain extent but those losses that confirmed my suspicions could have been predicted even if I changed my mind enough to respect Vitality. Schalke I was just wrong on all of Spring since, it turns out, they needed more time to gel as a unit and didn't really do so until Summer. If you consider that I was 19--9 in my Over/Unders and that was where the bulk of my profits came from I really didn't do that well in Europe. Let's say that number regresses closer to 50% and I don't punt away 10 units on a garbage team like Roccat and we would've ended up well but not exceptional.
Goals for Next Year:
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LOL Pro League (China)
Win-Loss: 154 - 185 (45.427%)
Net Units Gained: -43.479 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -5.967%
Avg Wager: 2.14 units
Over/Unders: 55 - 55 (-11.026 units)
Other Props: 11 - 26 (-6.02 units)
Handicapped: 59 - 68 (-3.033 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 29 - 39
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 41 - 62
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 31 - 34
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 20 - 22
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 9 - 14
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 11
6+ unit Wagers: 12 - 3
By the end of the Spring Split I was only down 1.064 units total in the LPL. What the hell happened to my second half? Well it's actually really simple and it's a trap a lot of people fall into and I didn't realize I was too until it was too late. I actually came out the gates relatively hot in the LPL Summer Split getting off to an 18-12 start and, if memory recalls, I was in the green double digit units at one point before it all came crashing down. I don't think it was a matter of overconfidence or "smelling myself" as much as it was that I had a pretty rough losing streak in every region besides the LCK that started early in the middle of the Summer. By the time the other regions finished up and it was just the LPL active I was in this mindset that I "had to make a lot of money before the season ended" which is an absolutely stupid idea. I started chasing heavy favorite 2-0's, a stat which was a big positive for me in Spring in the LPL, and severely overbet bonehead scenarios over and over. 5+ unit wagers all over the place on heavy favorites -1.5 when the reality of the situation was that a lot of teams clinched playoffs early and didn't really have the same urgency for "securing a first round bye" or whatever as I thought. This problem compounded on itself and I was in full tilt mode.
Did I have a few bad beats? Admittedly yes (IG losing to OMG?) but I was definitely chasing and putting way too much on matches that not only were very likely to have weird outcomes due to end of season playoff/not playoff scenarios, subsitutions, etc. I'll also admit there was a bit of a boredom factor here as well with all of the other leagues being done for the year I got super greedy betting a lot of these end of Summer LPL matches that I would have had the discipline to abstain from the rest of the year. It's not justification, it's just incorrect.
Goals for Next Year:
LOL Champions Korea
Win-Loss: 214 - 172 - 1 (55.44%)
Net Units Gained: +68.275 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +7.354%
Avg Wager: 2.458 units
Moneyline: 59 - 35 (+4.4625 units)
Live/In-Game: 11 - 4 (+10.424 units)
Over/Unders: 51 - 46 - 1 (-2.47 units)
Other Props: 21 - 30 (+6.7625 units)
Handicapped: 72 - 57 (+49.096 units) (+10.1554% yield)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 31 - 28
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 59 - 69 - 1
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 38 - 24
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 20 - 19
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 28 - 10
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 14 - 13
6+ unit Wagers: 23 - 9
8+ unit Wagers: 10 - 3 (extended from the 6+ unit wagers because I did more of it here than any other region)
We all know how upset heavy this Worlds tournament was and I'd like to give mad props to a few of the "system" style guys that treated this like the soccer World Cup and just even bet underdogs throughout the group stage. You would have been WAY UP if you just placed single unit wagers on every single dog in the group stage. It's impressive and a strategy I may attempt to employ, even experimentally next year. A lot of you know just how dreadful this tournament was for me. The only real regret I have is trusting Gen.G. I had absolutely no reason other than "they're a historically good Korean team" to trust them while other teams at least showed me something. I guess I believed in their tournament buff. If you read me all year you know I couldn't stand this team. I actually lost more money betting Gen.G than any other individual team this year by a lot. They were the subject of many heavy wagers and heavy disappointments but for whatever reason I convinced myself they'd be fine for this tournament which I regret.
Other than Gen.G what is there to say? This was a wild and crazy tournament and I've honestly never had more fun losing money.
Goals for Next Year:
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End of Season Stats (by region):
A few of these won't add up correctly because I made corrections about halfway through so some of the props and O/U counts might be wrong since, for quite some time, I had them labeled the same. I went through and made the corrections within the regional sheets I have but not in my overall sheet. Other than that there shouldn't be many discrepencies and if there are they're probably from me inputting something wrong.
North American LCS
Win-Loss: 110 - 93 (54.187%)
Net Units Gained: +13.1115 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -0.1473%
Avg Wager: 2.2145 units
Moneyline: 66 - 46 (+20.6295 units)
Live/In-Game: 26 - 21 (-0.353 units)
Over/Unders: 15 - 19 (-7.625 units)
Other Props: 2 - 6 (+0.22 units)
Handicapped: 1 - 1 (+0.24 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 12 (25%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 34 -34 (50%)
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 32 - 24 (57.14%)
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 16 - 13 (55.17%)
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 5 (68.75%)
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 7 - 3 (70%)
6+ unit Wagers: 6 - 2 (75%)
I had one thing VERY wrong going into the Spring Season which was 100 Thieves and had I been able to admit I was wrong about them sooner I could have had a monster year in NA as well. Other than that I was more or less right on the money with my preseason read of the region. My tiers were more or less exactly right by both the end of Summer and really by the end of the year other than 100 Thieves. The best of one angle scared my quite a bit and after a few really rough swings in the middle of the Spring Split I decided that I'd be limiting myself to three units on all but the most exceptional plays just based on the variance of best of ones. I had a good Summer in NA but if I had to go back I would have limited my wagers just like I did again. I think it was the correct call.
Goals for Next Year:
- Be willing to admit you were wrong about a team a bit sooner. Don't deny your initial read the chance to pan out but don't insist.
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European LCS
Win-Loss: 92 - 72 (56.1%)
Net Units Gained: +3.88
Avg Yield per Wager: +0.522%
Avg Wager: 2.055 units
Moneyline: 49 - 49 (-7.895 units)
Live/In-Game: 12 - 3 (+2.71 units)
Over/Unders: 19 - 9 (+8.4115 units)
Other Props: 10 - 6 (+3.36 units)
Handicapped: 2 - 5 (-2.41 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 7 (%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 36 - 33
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 16 - 17
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 9
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 5
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 0
6+ unit Wagers: 2 - 1
Lost a single 10 unit live wager on Roccat that lost me most of the gains I would've had in Europe. It was my lone 6+ unit loss and it was a stupid, tilted mistake. Similarly to North America, I had an excellent read on Europe with the exception of we'll call it 1.5 teams. Spring Vitality and Spring Schalke 04. I held on to my "Vitality will come crashing down" thought process for way too long. It ended up being true to a certain extent but those losses that confirmed my suspicions could have been predicted even if I changed my mind enough to respect Vitality. Schalke I was just wrong on all of Spring since, it turns out, they needed more time to gel as a unit and didn't really do so until Summer. If you consider that I was 19--9 in my Over/Unders and that was where the bulk of my profits came from I really didn't do that well in Europe. Let's say that number regresses closer to 50% and I don't punt away 10 units on a garbage team like Roccat and we would've ended up well but not exceptional.
Goals for Next Year:
- Similar to NA, be willing to admit you were wrong about a team a bit sooner. Don't deny your initial read the chance to pan out but don't insist.
- DON'T BREAK YOUR LIMIT RULES
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LOL Pro League (China)
Win-Loss: 154 - 185 (45.427%)
Net Units Gained: -43.479 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -5.967%
Avg Wager: 2.14 units
Moneyline: 27 - 36 (-29.25 units)
Live/In-Game: 2 - 0 (+5.85 units)Over/Unders: 55 - 55 (-11.026 units)
Other Props: 11 - 26 (-6.02 units)
Handicapped: 59 - 68 (-3.033 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 29 - 39
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 41 - 62
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 31 - 34
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 20 - 22
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 9 - 14
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 11
6+ unit Wagers: 12 - 3
By the end of the Spring Split I was only down 1.064 units total in the LPL. What the hell happened to my second half? Well it's actually really simple and it's a trap a lot of people fall into and I didn't realize I was too until it was too late. I actually came out the gates relatively hot in the LPL Summer Split getting off to an 18-12 start and, if memory recalls, I was in the green double digit units at one point before it all came crashing down. I don't think it was a matter of overconfidence or "smelling myself" as much as it was that I had a pretty rough losing streak in every region besides the LCK that started early in the middle of the Summer. By the time the other regions finished up and it was just the LPL active I was in this mindset that I "had to make a lot of money before the season ended" which is an absolutely stupid idea. I started chasing heavy favorite 2-0's, a stat which was a big positive for me in Spring in the LPL, and severely overbet bonehead scenarios over and over. 5+ unit wagers all over the place on heavy favorites -1.5 when the reality of the situation was that a lot of teams clinched playoffs early and didn't really have the same urgency for "securing a first round bye" or whatever as I thought. This problem compounded on itself and I was in full tilt mode.
Did I have a few bad beats? Admittedly yes (IG losing to OMG?) but I was definitely chasing and putting way too much on matches that not only were very likely to have weird outcomes due to end of season playoff/not playoff scenarios, subsitutions, etc. I'll also admit there was a bit of a boredom factor here as well with all of the other leagues being done for the year I got super greedy betting a lot of these end of Summer LPL matches that I would have had the discipline to abstain from the rest of the year. It's not justification, it's just incorrect.
Goals for Next Year:
- DON'T CHASE
- REALIZE WHEN YOU'RE CHASING
- Keep in mind that the end of the season is extremely high variance especially after playoff spots are secured.
- DON'T BOREDOM BET without accepting the consequences and communicating it to your readers.
LOL Champions Korea
Win-Loss: 214 - 172 - 1 (55.44%)
Net Units Gained: +68.275 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +7.354%
Avg Wager: 2.458 units
Moneyline: 59 - 35 (+4.4625 units)
Live/In-Game: 11 - 4 (+10.424 units)
Over/Unders: 51 - 46 - 1 (-2.47 units)
Other Props: 21 - 30 (+6.7625 units)
Handicapped: 72 - 57 (+49.096 units) (+10.1554% yield)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 31 - 28
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 59 - 69 - 1
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 38 - 24
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 20 - 19
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 28 - 10
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 14 - 13
6+ unit Wagers: 23 - 9
8+ unit Wagers: 10 - 3 (extended from the 6+ unit wagers because I did more of it here than any other region)
My biggest strength for the year was playing LCK Handicaps. I had a ridiculous 72 - 57 for a total of +49.096 units in just this style of bet in this league alone. I averaged over a 10.15% yield per wager in LCK handicapped wagers.
What can I say, I just destroyed Korea. It's the region I pay the most attention to and the results show it.
Goals for Next Year:
What can I say, I just destroyed Korea. It's the region I pay the most attention to and the results show it.
Goals for Next Year:
- Maybe shave wager size on Over/Unders but generally just keep doing what you're doing.
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League Masters Series (Taiwan)
Win-Loss: 26 - 26 (50%)
Net Units Gained: -15.27 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -16.1587%
Avg Wager: 1.82 units
Over/Unders: 6 - 4 (+1.445 units)
Other Props: 6 - 2 (+0.545 units)
Handicapped: 12 - 18 (-18.685 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 9 - 5
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 7
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 8
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 3
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 0
6+ unit Wagers: 1 - 1
League Masters Series (Taiwan)
Win-Loss: 26 - 26 (50%)
Net Units Gained: -15.27 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -16.1587%
Avg Wager: 1.82 units
Moneyline: 2 - 2 (+1.425 units)
Live/In-Game: 0 - 0Over/Unders: 6 - 4 (+1.445 units)
Other Props: 6 - 2 (+0.545 units)
Handicapped: 12 - 18 (-18.685 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 9 - 5
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 7
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 8
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 3
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 0
6+ unit Wagers: 1 - 1
The LMS was sort of the opposite of North America for me. When I made sharp, small wagers I was generally successful, albeit with a small sample size. A majority of the larger wagers were during the beginning of the Summer split where there was a bit of a changing of the guard happening in the mid tier teams. By the middle of the Summer Split I was chasing quite a bit in the LMS too trying to "rebound." Most of the handicapped bet losses were basically trying to get any kind of value out of a region full of -1000 range favorites and it ended up biting me in the ass.
Goals for Next Year:
Goals for Next Year:
- Don't chase heavy favorites just for the value.
- Don't convince yourself of 2-0's when the realistic odds of 2-1's are higher than you're willing to admit.
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Turkish Champions League (Turkey)
Win-Loss: 22 - 12 (64.7%)
Net Units Gained: +6.235 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +15.0241%
Avg Wager: 1.22 units
Over/Unders: 16 - 9 (+5.54 units)
Other Props: 3 - 2 (-0.145 units)
Handicapped: 0 - 1 (-4.0 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 1
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 9
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 1
3-3.99 unit Wagers: none
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
5-5.99 unit Wagers: none
6+ unit Wagers: none
Almost all of these wagers occured in the Spring season when I felt I had a much better read on the TCL as a whole. Who the good/bad teams were, the metagame, and the regional metagame and how it affected game time totals where we had the most success. Early in the Spring, the books didn't have any idea how games would play out here so if you just watched the good teams at all you'd realize none of these games were going to 30 minutes and we were getting totals 32-34 minutes. It was, as they say, "easy money." Once algorithms adjusted it was a little harder to consistently make money in such a lopsided region. The Summer Split had a lot of roster changes which made things even more predictable so I stay away for the most part.
Goals for Next Year:
Turkish Champions League (Turkey)
Win-Loss: 22 - 12 (64.7%)
Net Units Gained: +6.235 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +15.0241%
Avg Wager: 1.22 units
Moneyline: 3 - 0 (+4.84 units)
Live/In-Game: noneOver/Unders: 16 - 9 (+5.54 units)
Other Props: 3 - 2 (-0.145 units)
Handicapped: 0 - 1 (-4.0 units)
0-0.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 1
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 9
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 1
3-3.99 unit Wagers: none
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
5-5.99 unit Wagers: none
6+ unit Wagers: none
Almost all of these wagers occured in the Spring season when I felt I had a much better read on the TCL as a whole. Who the good/bad teams were, the metagame, and the regional metagame and how it affected game time totals where we had the most success. Early in the Spring, the books didn't have any idea how games would play out here so if you just watched the good teams at all you'd realize none of these games were going to 30 minutes and we were getting totals 32-34 minutes. It was, as they say, "easy money." Once algorithms adjusted it was a little harder to consistently make money in such a lopsided region. The Summer Split had a lot of roster changes which made things even more predictable so I stay away for the most part.
Goals for Next Year:
- THIS IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF ABSINTENCE. The Summer was wild and you didn't force bet into it.
- Maybe try to get a read on style for smaller regions again, there's money to be made in game flow based betting like over/unders.
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LOL Continental League (CIS)
Win-Loss: 0 - 5 (0%)
Net Units Gained: -5.25 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -100%
Avg Wager: 1.05 units
Moneyline: 0 - 1 (-1 unit)
Live/In-Game:
Over/Unders:
Other Props: 0 - 1 (-0.25 units)
Handicapped: 0 - 3 (-4 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers:0 - 2
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
3-3.99 unit Wagers: none
4-4.99 unit Wagers: none
5-5.99 unit Wagers: none
6+ unit Wagers: none
LOL Continental League (CIS)
Win-Loss: 0 - 5 (0%)
Net Units Gained: -5.25 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -100%
Avg Wager: 1.05 units
Moneyline: 0 - 1 (-1 unit)
Live/In-Game:
Over/Unders:
Other Props: 0 - 1 (-0.25 units)
Handicapped: 0 - 3 (-4 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers:0 - 2
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
3-3.99 unit Wagers: none
4-4.99 unit Wagers: none
5-5.99 unit Wagers: none
6+ unit Wagers: none
I mostly bet a few of these for fun. Truth is I didn't know enough about all but the top two teams to really do much here.
Goals for Next Year:
Goals for Next Year:
- Don't bet what you don't know.
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Mid Season Invitational 2018
Win-Loss: 14 - 7 (66.66%)
Net Units Gained: +15.74 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +31.79798%
Avg Wager: 2.357 units
Over/Unders: none
Other Props: 1 - 2 (-0.58 units)
Handicapped: 3 - 0 (+7.22 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 5 - 2
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 2
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 1
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 0
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 1
6+ unit Wagers: none
In years past I'd do prediction articles. If you dig deep enough on here you can find them. I was pretty damn accurate too. My tournament record/results were way better than my regular season reads most of the time so when I had an excellent MSI I honestly wasn't surprised. The other tournaments however....
Mid Season Invitational 2018
Win-Loss: 14 - 7 (66.66%)
Net Units Gained: +15.74 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +31.79798%
Avg Wager: 2.357 units
Moneyline: 8 - 5 (+4.5 units)
Live/In-Game: 2 - 0 (+4.6 units)Over/Unders: none
Other Props: 1 - 2 (-0.58 units)
Handicapped: 3 - 0 (+7.22 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 5 - 2
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 2
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 1
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 0
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 1
6+ unit Wagers: none
In years past I'd do prediction articles. If you dig deep enough on here you can find them. I was pretty damn accurate too. My tournament record/results were way better than my regular season reads most of the time so when I had an excellent MSI I honestly wasn't surprised. The other tournaments however....
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Rift Rivals 2018
Win-Loss: 19 - 24 (44.186%)
Net Units Gained: -17.37 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -14.2377%
Avg Wager: 2.837 units
Moneyline: 4 - 8 (-11.13 units)
Live/In-Game: 0 - 1 (-9.0 units)
Over/Unders: 13 - 10 (+2.6 units)
Other Props: 1 - 4 (-0.65 units)
Handicapped: 1 - 1 (+0.81 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 3
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 13
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 2
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 2
6+ unit Wagers: 3 - 1
Rift Rivals 2018
Win-Loss: 19 - 24 (44.186%)
Net Units Gained: -17.37 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -14.2377%
Avg Wager: 2.837 units
Moneyline: 4 - 8 (-11.13 units)
Live/In-Game: 0 - 1 (-9.0 units)
Over/Unders: 13 - 10 (+2.6 units)
Other Props: 1 - 4 (-0.65 units)
Handicapped: 1 - 1 (+0.81 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 3
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 13
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 2
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 2
6+ unit Wagers: 3 - 1
Yeesh... Rift Rivals is a really weird tournament and I'll be the first to admit I was sippin' on the Korean Kool-Aid a bit too much. In hindsight this looks REALLY REALLY stupid after knowing how Worlds turned out but at the time I didn't think I was too far out of line and just had a bad tournament. Boy was I wrong.
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World Championships 2018
Win-Loss: 41 - 53 (43.62%)
Net Units Gained: -15.545 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -9.933%
Avg Wager: 1.68 units
Over/Unders: 26 - 23 (-5.585 units)
Other Props: 1 - 7 (-2.82 units)
Handicapped: 3 - 8 (-15.825 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 3
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 26 - 36
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 6
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 2
6+ unit Wagers: 3 - 1
World Championships 2018
Win-Loss: 41 - 53 (43.62%)
Net Units Gained: -15.545 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -9.933%
Avg Wager: 1.68 units
Moneyline: 8 - 12 (+6.455 units)
Live/In-Game: 3 - 2 (+2.23 units)Over/Unders: 26 - 23 (-5.585 units)
Other Props: 1 - 7 (-2.82 units)
Handicapped: 3 - 8 (-15.825 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 3
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 26 - 36
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 6
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 2
6+ unit Wagers: 3 - 1
We all know how upset heavy this Worlds tournament was and I'd like to give mad props to a few of the "system" style guys that treated this like the soccer World Cup and just even bet underdogs throughout the group stage. You would have been WAY UP if you just placed single unit wagers on every single dog in the group stage. It's impressive and a strategy I may attempt to employ, even experimentally next year. A lot of you know just how dreadful this tournament was for me. The only real regret I have is trusting Gen.G. I had absolutely no reason other than "they're a historically good Korean team" to trust them while other teams at least showed me something. I guess I believed in their tournament buff. If you read me all year you know I couldn't stand this team. I actually lost more money betting Gen.G than any other individual team this year by a lot. They were the subject of many heavy wagers and heavy disappointments but for whatever reason I convinced myself they'd be fine for this tournament which I regret.
Other than Gen.G what is there to say? This was a wild and crazy tournament and I've honestly never had more fun losing money.
Goals for Next Year:
- Don't assume you will do better at tournaments.
- Consider alternate strategies.
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2018 Full Annual Results
(according to master sheet)
Win-Loss: 692 - 649 - 1 push (51.603%)
Net Units Gained: +10.3275 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -0.83%
Avg Wager: 1.98 units
(according to these individual regional sheets tallied totals)
Over/Unders: 201 - 175 (-8.7095 units)
Other Props: 56 - 86 (+0.4225 units)
Handicapped: 153 - 162 (+9.413 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 89 - 100 (47.09%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 220 - 257 - 1 (46.025%)
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 147 - 130 (53.0685%)
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 73 - 71 (50.694%)
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 62 - 40 (60.78%)
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 47 - 32 (59.49%)
6+ unit Wagers: 50 - 18 (73.529%)
DATA DISCREPANCIES:
I lost or duplicated some games at some point along the line because in my master sheet I have 1331 total bets made. I know at least a few of these were "add-on" wagers that are entered as two separate entries in my sheet for the same game, likely because odds changed or I felt like tacking on. There were, from what I can find, six of those scenarios. I'm also missing four wins and one loss somewhere along here but I'm not going to fret over this. I'm also missing 0.2965 units, likely from missed % translations from unit size changes. It was more than likely a clerical error on my part and likely wouldn't have a huge impact on our totals for the year.
A few of these won't add up correctly because I made corrections about halfway through so some of the props and O/U counts might be wrong since, for quite some time, I had them labeled generically as "props" before I eventually separated them into O/U and other props. I went through and made the corrections within the regional sheets I have but not in my overall sheet. Other than that there shouldn't be many discrepencies and if there are they're probably from me inputting something wrong.
2018 Full Annual Results
Win-Loss: 692 - 649 - 1 push (51.603%)
Net Units Gained: +10.3275 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -0.83%
Avg Wager: 1.98 units
(according to these individual regional sheets tallied totals)
Moneyline: 222 - 194 (-6.963 units)
Live/In-Game: 56 - 31 (+16.461 units)Over/Unders: 201 - 175 (-8.7095 units)
Other Props: 56 - 86 (+0.4225 units)
Handicapped: 153 - 162 (+9.413 units)
0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 89 - 100 (47.09%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 220 - 257 - 1 (46.025%)
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 147 - 130 (53.0685%)
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 73 - 71 (50.694%)
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 62 - 40 (60.78%)
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 47 - 32 (59.49%)
6+ unit Wagers: 50 - 18 (73.529%)
DATA DISCREPANCIES:
I lost or duplicated some games at some point along the line because in my master sheet I have 1331 total bets made. I know at least a few of these were "add-on" wagers that are entered as two separate entries in my sheet for the same game, likely because odds changed or I felt like tacking on. There were, from what I can find, six of those scenarios. I'm also missing four wins and one loss somewhere along here but I'm not going to fret over this. I'm also missing 0.2965 units, likely from missed % translations from unit size changes. It was more than likely a clerical error on my part and likely wouldn't have a huge impact on our totals for the year.
A few of these won't add up correctly because I made corrections about halfway through so some of the props and O/U counts might be wrong since, for quite some time, I had them labeled generically as "props" before I eventually separated them into O/U and other props. I went through and made the corrections within the regional sheets I have but not in my overall sheet. Other than that there shouldn't be many discrepencies and if there are they're probably from me inputting something wrong.
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