March 20th Recap:
LPL: 2 - 2 (-3.94 units)
LEC: 1 - 1 (+0.7 units)
TOTAL: 3 - 3 (-3.24 units)
Sorry for the holdup getting this out, been catching up on a ton of other writing work. Turns out, people want esports writers. But I do like coming back to the more casual feel here and will always be trying to do so. That said, my time is spread pretty thin at the moment so feel free to buy me a beer for my thoughts if you want.
The LPL bloodbath continued today... I don't really know what to say these were both weird series'. Yea that's about all I've got on the LPL. Referring to JDG specifically, this is kind of what you get when you play the style the LPL does. You're just going to lose more consistently coin flipping a lot. That said, I thought both EDG and Vici both looked excellent today and it's good to see two teams that are figuring things out and using substitutions still able to smash the big boys once in awhile.
The first remote Western broadcast was a bit of a disaster but I'll refer you to Quickshot's album of photos showing you the setup they're working with and remind you that they're dealing with notoriously bad central European internet. Be patient. It'll get better. Hopefully the LCS learns a few things from them for tomorrow as well. Excel just couldnt get the snowball going but Schalke delivered in exactly the fashion I thought they would. That said, it's weird that Misfits wanted to put Febiven on Ornn. It sets up a situation where you just don't have prio in two lanes and your entire team strategy is to play around mid+jungle. This was particularly bad but the trend of Misfits starting to feel "figured out" or "solved" is growing.
Alright that's enough typing, onto the slate.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
LPL Trends:
Favorites Straight Up: 30 - 18
Favorites ATS: 20 - 28
Underdogs Straight Up: 18 - 30
Underdogs ATS: 28 - 20
Underdog -1.5 maps: 9 out of 48
Week 3 - Day 6
Dominus +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
OMG -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
Lineups:
Dominus: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiaowei, Gala, Mark
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, cold
I think you all know where I'm going to be on this one. Dominus were absolutely dreadful in their last two outings and OMG look like a top six team. So based on how today's matches went that means slam dunk Dominus BARK BARK UNDERDOGS LETS GOOOOOOOOOO!!
Take OMG, this is a gift.
Moneyline: OMG -230 (2.3 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
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BiliBili Gaming +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
eStar Gaming -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
Lineups:
BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
EST: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
eStar are fraudulent. They're being carried by their predictable and counterable strategy as well as Cryin not being exposed because he hasn't had to play much else besides Rumble. It's a clever solution but it's disguising his deficiencies as a player. I mostly just think eStar are going to fall off a cliff and I absolutely love fading them and endorsing a team coming off of an embarassing performance.
To reiterate
From 3/16/2020:
Moneyline: BiliBili +172 (1 unit)(Nitrogen)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +395 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)
Additional:
Moneyline: BiliBili +185 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +450 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
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Invictus Gaming -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
vs
TOP eSports +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwin
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
It appears we've got the old Invictus Gaming of 2018-19 back. Clowning around and punting games almost every series. This team is still just unbelievably good but damn it are they frustrating when they get like this. The people that have been following me for awhile know this but maybe the huge amount of newcomers don't. Invictus are the team I've lost the most on over the years. I punted away a 20% ROI in the Summer of 2018 betting their -1.5's in most matches and they gave up a game almost every single time. They won Worlds that year... For whatever reason this team just loves goofing off and clowning around, kind of like G2. Maybe it's just how they deal with burnout or whatever but I thought after seeing Summer last year and the World Championships as well as the beginning of this season that they'd moved past this. It appears not.
Now that I've written my tirade out they'll swiftly stomp TOP in like 45 minutes tomorrow.....
I'm on TOP +1.5 maps. They looked really sharp in their last series and, similar to Vici and EDG (and hopefully BLG), are slowly but surely figuring things out. Invictus are kind of like G2 with The Troll Cycle of Life. They've won a few too many series in a row now and have started clowning around, now it's about time for them to go too far.
Spread: TOP +1.5 maps @ -125 (2.50 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: TOP +275 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
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LEC (Europe)
Week 8 - Day 2
Vitality +172 vs Schalke -260
Origen -769 vs SK Gaming +395
Misfits -154 vs MAD Lions +108
Excel +444 vs G2 eSports -885
Rogue +172 vs Fnatic -260
Schalke look really good and while Vitality looked good with the cheese pick Olaf tonight against Origen it didn't quite get there just like this team. I never in a thousand years thought I'd lay 240 with Schalke but I'm going to to win half a unit.
Moneyline: Schalke -240 (1.2 units)(5Dimes)
The only other matchup I love on this slate is MAD Lions which we John made his pick of the week last week before postponement. Nothing has changed, MAD looked great yesterday, Misfits we talked about already.
Moneyline: MAD Lions +120 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
You can take a shot on Rogue if you find a better number. I saw +200 at 5Dimes so I'll throw a half unit on it. This team is really good and Fnatic tend to play right on that edge of madness a bit too from time to time.
Moneyline: Rogue +200 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
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Vitality +172 vs Schalke -260
Origen -769 vs SK Gaming +395
Misfits -154 vs MAD Lions +108
Excel +444 vs G2 eSports -885
Rogue +172 vs Fnatic -260
Schalke look really good and while Vitality looked good with the cheese pick Olaf tonight against Origen it didn't quite get there just like this team. I never in a thousand years thought I'd lay 240 with Schalke but I'm going to to win half a unit.
Moneyline: Schalke -240 (1.2 units)(5Dimes)
The only other matchup I love on this slate is MAD Lions which we John made his pick of the week last week before postponement. Nothing has changed, MAD looked great yesterday, Misfits we talked about already.
Moneyline: MAD Lions +120 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
You can take a shot on Rogue if you find a better number. I saw +200 at 5Dimes so I'll throw a half unit on it. This team is really good and Fnatic tend to play right on that edge of madness a bit too from time to time.
Moneyline: Rogue +200 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
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LCS (North America)
Week 8 - Day 1
TSM -369 vs Golden Guardians +246
Cloud 9 -535 vs 100 Thieves +329
Evil Geniuses +118 vs Team Liquid -167
Dignitas -141 vs CLG -102
Immortals +147 vs FlyQuest -207
I'm going to be on Liquid to win a unit. You can read a more detailed breakdown in my first published article on The Action Network
Moneyline: Liquid -167 (1.67 units)
If you have access to kill spreads check that article I have a lot of good research on those over there.
Other than that I'm going to avoid the rest of this slate for now. I'm looking into a parlay of Cloud 9 and TSM but I'm going to wait to see if Cloud 9 are starting any subs.
TSM -369 vs Golden Guardians +246
Cloud 9 -535 vs 100 Thieves +329
Evil Geniuses +118 vs Team Liquid -167
Dignitas -141 vs CLG -102
Immortals +147 vs FlyQuest -207
I'm going to be on Liquid to win a unit. You can read a more detailed breakdown in my first published article on The Action Network
Moneyline: Liquid -167 (1.67 units)
If you have access to kill spreads check that article I have a lot of good research on those over there.
Other than that I'm going to avoid the rest of this slate for now. I'm looking into a parlay of Cloud 9 and TSM but I'm going to wait to see if Cloud 9 are starting any subs.
Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
none for now
none for now
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