Friday, June 29, 2018

Betting: June 30th (LCK, LPL, LMS, EU LCS, NA LCS, TCL)

LOL Champions Korea 6/30 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-294, -1.5 @ +119)
@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
Hanwha Life eSports (+219, +1.5 @ -154)

BBQ Olivers (+200, +1.5 @ -139)
@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
SK Telecom (-263, -1.5 @ +108)

Handicapped: Kingzone  -1.5 maps @ +119 (7 units) (will show as initial 4 and add on of 3)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 2-1 @ +202 (2 units)

I'm actually going a bit against the public grain here on this one. Hanwha Life has been great this season just as ROX was last season. They're consistent, competitive, and will likely be in contention for a playoff spot but they're not Kingzone. They're not, for my money, the best team in the world. Kingzone had a weird start to the season with a loss to the back to elite level Gen.G and a game loss to the Jin Air Green Wings. They dropped a game against current #2 Afreeca and got swept by Griffin more or less by tilting off of one mistake, something I've never seen that team do before. What'd they do after losing to Griffin? SMASHED SK Telecom two days later. I think this Kingzone team is going to be on a warpath for the rest of the season and I'll be hard pressed not to be wagering on them a lot. After all, as I've said, I still think this is the best team on the planet and I want to jump on odds like these while we still get them. This is no knock against HLE I just think Kingzone are tired of messing around and want to potentially pull within a game (or half game) of 1st before the Rift Rivals break.


Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +108 (6 units)

PROP: Exact SK Telecom 2-1 @ +233 (1 unit)

BBQ are the worst team in Korea and to me it's not particularly close. They're sloppy, they don't convert kills into objectives, their laning isn't good, their macro isn't good and in a region as competitive as Korea I don't think the rest of the league besides the 8th and 9th place teams can afford to "underestimate" or "take the day off" as the cliches go which does not bode well for BBQ. SKT need victories after a rough start and seem to be hitting a rhythm now despite the shellacing put on them by Kingzone which was to be expected. After Rift Rivals will be interesting because the break could hurt momentum or help them with a meta change but for now they're in a good spot and I expect this to be a 2-0. The only reason this wager isn't higher is because of potential starter changes and the fact that SKT aren't one of the elite "slam dunk" teams I just think they're playing well right now and finally figured this metagame out and BBQ are terrible.


LOL Pro League (China) 6/30 Schedule:

BiliBili Gaming (-370, -1.5 @ +100)
@ (O/U: 33:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)
LGD Gaming (+265, +1.5 @ -130)

JD Gaming (-313, -1.5 @ +113)
@ (O/U: 33:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)
Vici Gaming (+230, +1.5 @ -147)

Royal Never Give Up (-125, -1.5 @ +228)
@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)

Invictus Gaming (-101, +1.5 @ -313)

Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -101 (5 units)

PROP: Exact Invictus 2-1 @ +248 (2 units)

PROP: Royal to win at least 1 map? NO @ +299 (0.5 units)

These two teams slugged it out in a five game playoff series that Royal won just a couple months ago. Invictus were the best team in China and while RNG were respected as a good team, upset them BIG TIME in what ended up being a classic series (go watch it if you haven't it's a real slobberknocker). Not only does Invictus have side choice but a vendetta here. I think the current metagame is ever so slightly more in favor of IG and with side selection and this extra motivation I expect them to get the job done this time around in a close 2-1 duel of what I'd consider the two best teams in the LPL. Small wagers on the 2-0 and we'll see if we can mise that.


Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +113 (4 units)

PROP: Exact JD 2-1 @ +206  (1 unit)

JD have been thriving in a meta built for their all-in, early game aggression and I think that continues against Vici. However I do think Vici have looked good and also "thrive" in that meta. Why the thrive in quotes? Because I really don't think Vici can ever really thrive. They're one of the worst teams in the LPL but I do think this is a decent time for them. I also don't think JD are one of the true elite teams so I don't always trust them because they can get sloppy. Because of this I'm limiting this to 4 units with a slight pregame hedge on the 2-1 victory.


Handicapped: LGD Gaming +1.5 @ -130 (2 units)

PROP: Exact LGD 2-1 @ +469  (1 unit)

BiliBili are the better team but this metagame is just so poor for them and they've been performing terribly. Not taking objectives off of kills and not doing anything proactive. They're still playing like it's last season and have yet to make the adjustment. LGD have at least been trying to adjust and while they're not good they do get side choice here against an opponent that's not only reeling but look completely lost. BiliBili remind me a lot of Jin Air in Korea. They know how to do things correctly in slow, scaling metas and thrive there but throw them into something like we have right now and they're just terrible and slow. I like BiliBili to take this 2-1 so I like the LGD +1.5 and the outside chance for them to steal this series 2-1 even as the inferior team. Low wager because these teams aren't particularly great so anything could happen.


League Masters Series (Taiwan) 6/30 Schedule:



EU LCS (Europe) 6/30 Schedule:

Misfits -370 @ H2K +250
Schalke 04 +144 @ Vitality -200
Fnatic -333 @ Giants +227
ROCCAT -135 @ Splyce +100
G2 eSports -417 @ Unicorns of Love +300

PROP: Misfits @ H2K UNDER 33:00 @ -122 (2 units)

PROP: Schalke @ Vitality UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

PROP: Fnatic @ Giants UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (2 units)

PROP: G2 @ UoL UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Moneyline: Splyce +100  (2 units)

I don't particularly like any of the moneylines in Europe besides the close game but I do like the UNDER's in situations where there are heavy favorites as well as combinations of 2-4 team parlays.

Splyce looked a lot cleaner albiet deliberate in Friday's game against a poor H2K so I actually was thinking I'd slam ROCCAT here expecting a line overadjustment but I don't think too highly of ROCCAT either so it was mostly preying on line value. Well it turns out Splyce are +100 and not favored so we'll go with a couple units on the dog here. I think Splyce are the better team anyway even if the meta doesn't favor them. I was going to bet the dog here no matter who it was.


Turkish Champions League 6/30 Schedule:

I'm not messing with Turkey until I get a clearer picture on how things shake out. Feel free to throw SuperMassive into your parlays regardless of who they face as they're still the clear cut top team here.


NA LCS (North America) 6/30 Schedule:

Team Solo Mid -179 @ Cloud 9 +130
Team Liquid -159 @ Echo Fox +117
100 Thieves -141 @ Clutch Gaming +104
FlyQuest -103 @ Golden Guardians -132
Counter Logic Gaming -200 @ OpTic Gaming +145

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +104 (2 units)

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -106 (1 unit)

Clutch get side selection and, to me, are the better team. This would be a large wager if it weren't for a few factors:

  • Best of ones are volatile
  • Bad metagame for Clutch
  • Hard to get a read on what 100 Thieves will be like as they prep for Rift Rivals since Levi and Brandini are likely going to start. 
And speaking of that Meteos recently came out and had an interview where he talked about how much is sucks "training the guy who wants to take your job." This team has done a great job of not  being a toxic atmosphere. What I mean by that is that they didn't just show up in Spring as the crew of veterans just collecting a paycheck like I thought they'd be going into last season. I also thought, because they were vets, that they'd be unmotivated and likely would just be miserable at the first sign of bad performance but they ended up never seeing that bad performance really. I think this might end up catching up to 100 Thieves but it could also be a blessing bringing in fresh players. Brandini and Levi have been terrorizing the Challenger Series so maybe this is a good thing but what it says to me is that this team is sort of mailing it in for Rift Rivals which, to me, means they might be mailing in this game. If it wasn't for best of ones I'd slam this one but I've set a hard limit of 3 units for best of one games in the LCS this first half of the season and that's been working for me.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Betting: June 29th (LCK, LPL, LMS, TCL, EU LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 6/29 Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-435, -1.5 @ -147)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
MVP (+301, +1.5 @ +104)

Gen.G eSports (-385, -1.5 @ -135)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
Jin Air GW (+264, +1.5 @ -102)

Handicapped: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -147 (5 units)

Afreeca didn't look themselves despite a 2-1 victory against Jin Air last match but I think they'll get right back on track against MVP. This felt more like a 3 unit wager to me because the sweep is the only way to bet it and I could see MVP taking a game especially with side selection but after researching, I think all the evidence points to Afreeca taking this 2-0 with one, possibly two of the games being close so we're upping the wager. Afreeca have a +725 gold differential @ 15 minutes which is, to me, the most telling statistic in this current metagame which we'll have until the break starting next week. Gen.G and KT Rolster are the only teams possessing better differential scores. For comparison, after this mornings matches, Griffin is at +222 and MVP are at -318. MVP have looked like a better team than last season but I think after dropping a game to Jin Air last week and a competitive middle to top of the table in the LCK, Afreeca will be motivated to go into the break with another match win in preparation for what I'd assume is a rather large metagame change.


Handicapped: Gen.G eSports -1.5 maps @ -135 (5 units)

Be warned that Gen.G have been my kryptonite this year but Jin Air are one of the bottom two teams in the league despite Teddy's best efforts. I think Jin Air desperately need the break and a metagame change or they'll continue to struggle. If this wasn't Gen.G I'd probably up this to 6 or 7 units but I don't want to get burned too badly just because they decided not to show up for a game. I think they're good enough to win even if that happens because Jin Air haven't been able to really punish but I'm still a tad skeptical.


LOL Pro League (China) 6/29 Schedule:

EDward Gaming (-667, -1.5 @ -149)
@ (O/U: 30:00 minutes, 21.5 total kills)
TopSports Gaming (+427, +1.5 @ +114)

Rogue Warriors (-345, -1.5 @ -103)
@ (O/U: 30:00 minutes, 21.5 total kills)
Team WE (+254, +1.5 @ -127)

Handicapped: EDward Gaming -1.5 maps @ -149 (4 units)

While TopSports may have moved themselves up the list to one of the "best of the worst" spots I just don't really see them winning games that Marin doesn't hard carry them in. Brief side topic: Why in the hell is Marin here? I know he just took the fat paycheck and is livin' it up the good "retired Korean" life but my god the dude is still just phenominal. Any game this team wins is solely on his back it's remarkable. Anyway back on track. TopSports are still trying to play scaling league of legends every game and that's not the game in it's current state. They're not entirely all in on it but they're still playing relatively slow so they have a tendency to get run over. They have a chance in games where they don't just by the nature of how they draft but they're not even a particularly great late game team they just draft for it. They've also been mixing in Lies for Marin which... I mean look I get it you gotta develop someone behind him for when he eventually leaves but holy shit you're awful just start your superstar. Marin is legitimately still one of the best players on the planet. He's a game changer. I'm a tad skeptical on this because I don't think EDG is quite on the level of the elite LPL teams and they get caught up in the scaling nonsense themselves sometimes but they're a top 5 squad and appear to be comfortable just playing a faster version of themselves for this metagame. My only concern for this game is that they start Haro over Clearlove but even then they should be able to 2-0 this.


Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -103 (6 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -122 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Unless you think Rogue Warriors aren't going to give a damn about their last game going into Rift Rivals I simply don't understand this line. It's sort of a must win for Team WE or they'll fall too far behind but at this point they're more or less only better than the truly bad teams in the LPL. Rogue Warriors aren't a team that messes around or plays with their food either. This team is brutally efficient and ruthless which is why I usually trust them more in scenarios like this than a team like Gen.G in the LCK or Echo Fox in NA LCS. Rogue Warriors are a Top 10 team in the world to me, possibly higher than that along with Invictus and RNG and Team WE are has-beens, albeit capable ones. This screams blowout to me especially because Team WE are a long game style team sporting the second longest average game time in the LPL while Rogue Warriors have been averaging just a shade over 30 minutes and are going to look to continue their undefeated run. I could see fading the favorite here for a lot of people because Team WE have recognizable names from their previous Worlds performances which is probably why this line isn't slightly higher but I don't think this is the time. I'd look to after the break for that and to a team that plays stronger and more aggressive in the early game than Team WE does. I like the unders in this game too because RW are going to get either the new pocket pick Mid Kled and get run over by overpowered champions because they spend a ban on it. I know 30 is a lower number but RW should take care of business here.


I'll also be doing a smattering of very small parlays combining 2-7 pieces with various heavy favorite moneylines and some -1.5 map ones as well. This slate appears extremely predictable and we don't get too many of these in a season. We've also been running red hot and hit a few parlays yesterday so screw it let's have some fun and hope we spike one.


League Masters Series (Taiwan) 6/29 Schedule:

Flash Wolves (-2500, -1.5 @ -244)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
Team Afro (+669, +1.5 @ +161)

Mad Team (+169, +1.5 @ -192)
(O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
G-Rex (-256, -1.5 @ +131)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -244 (8.5u , max allowed) 

This is the kind of line that gets you punished for saying "it's a sure thing" but to be honest I think my team could contend with Team Afro and we have day jobs. Ok maybe not that bad but still, you get the picture. Flash Wolves could probably win this blindfolded and I don't think they'll mess around as they prep for Rift Rivals. Now Team Afro have a new lineup but to be honest it's not really any better from what I can tell. This is money in the bank. Easy add to the parlay portfolio for the slate.


Handicapped: G-Rex -1.5 @ +131 (4 units)

G-Rex were one of the two non-Flash Wolves teams last season that had anything remotely close to a chance to even be competitive against them. They had a rough start with a brutal loss to the newly invigorated Hong Kong Attitude and they're still getting comfortable with new mid laner Wuji. Now make no mistake Wuji is a downgrade from Candy but the other four players still remain and I think this team just needed a match to get their legs under them. G-Rex were the second best team in the LMS last split (you could argue J Team I guess). They're primed to return to form here.


EU LCS (Europe) 6/29 Schedule:

Misfits -233 @ FC Schalke 04  +171
Splyce -133 @ H2K +101
Team Vitality -154 @ Unicorns of Love +113
G2 eSports -115 @ Fnatic -115

Moneyline: Splyce -133 (3 units)

Moneyline: G2 eSports -115 (2 units)

Moneyline: Team Vitality -154 (3 units)

Moneyline: FC Schalke 04 +171 (1 unit)

Volatile metagame and best of ones are a bad combination but I have a few strong leans for tomorrow's EU LCS but I'll be sticking to mostly live betting.

  • Splyce have to get it together at some point. They're not an elite team but they're a very good team and appear to just be in a rough spot playing the current metagame. They have the right read they just need the execution which I think they'll be able to do against the also winless H2K. 
  • I like G2 just slightly more than Fnatic here simply because Fnatic are not only missing their best player (I don't give a damn what the meta is you play Rekkles) but nobody seems to be able to stop G2's bot lane right now (RAISE YOUR DONGERS)
  • UoL sucks. That is all.
  • This is mostly just a line value bet. Yea Misfits are good but FC Schalke 04 should be in that top half conversation and this line is massively blown out of proportion because of Misfits' 4-0 start. I might actually up this tomorrow.


Turkish Champions League 6/29 Schedule:

Team AURORA -182 @ Bursaspor eSports +133
SuperMassive -500 @ YouthCrew +285
HWA Gaming -250 @ DarkPassage +165
1907 Fenerbahce -128 @ Royal Bandits -114

There's some weird shit going on in the TCL with a lot of weird roster moves and full roster trades and stuff so it's pretty tough to get a feel right now unless you're really plugged into the Turkish scene. I'm going to be abstaining outside of parlay inclusions on heavy favorites until I have more of an idea what's going on. SuperMassive are still the top team and it's not close is the only sure thing at this point.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Betting: June 28th (LCK, LMS)

LCK  (Korea) 6/28 Schedule:

KT Rolster (+129, +1.5 @ -250)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Griffin (-167, -1.5 @ +184)

Kingzone DragonX (-385, -1.5 @ -109)
@ (O/U 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
SK Telecom (+272, +1.5 @ -119)


Moneyline: KT Rolster +129 (5 units)

PROP: Exact KT Rolster 2-1 victory @ +280 (2.5 units)

PROP: Griffin to win at least one map NO @ +385 (2.5 units)

UPDATE: Added 5 more units @ +129 moneyline to make this my PICK OF THE WEEK

The reason for the prop bets here is because they had better odds than the actual handicaps. I might actually end up making this a larger wager depending on line movement and if I feel better about it the more I think about it but this is exactly the kind of spot KT will swing wildly in the other direction of expectations. The "KT Rollercoaster" is more or less a meme at this point with the amount of anecdotal evidence to support it. They will meet your wildest expectations and then immediately crush any expectations the next week. One week they obliterate Gen.G, the next they lose in roll over dead fashion to SKT. Now granted it's The Telecom War but still, the point stands. This feels to me exactly like the spot where KT Rolster completely destroy Griffin and then lose to MVP on Sunday. The other factor that's going into this selection is the fact that for as good as Griffin have been, I just can't see this team being the best in the LCK by seasons end. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited as hell to have a bunch of new kids on the block keeping the world's most elite teams on their heels again but the crown lies heavy and KT are exactly the kind of team to knock them off their pedastol even if just momentarily. The other thing to keep in mind here is that KT are going to have to take this team seriously if they want to surpass them for a worlds spot. The 2nd and 3rd Korean slots are going to be an absolute slobberknocker of a fight come seasons end and it starts now. 

So let's review our reasoning:

  • KT Rolster have a history of smashing the top teams and then losing to weaker teams, often in back to back matches, they're like the Pittsburgh Steelers of League of Legends.
  • KT Rolster need to start getting wins (they're 3-3) while Griffin (6-0) will be playing their last match before a two week hiatus for Rift Rivals as they sit atop the standings. I don't really think they'll be "coasting" because this team is young and hungry to prove themselves but I do think KT need this a lot more than Griffin does and that can matter.
  • KT hopefully learned from their idiodic game three draft against SKT to just play stronger lanes. That's how they win and what they're good at.
  • KT have the individual talent advantage over Griffin and very few teams can say that especially at the ADC position where I think Deft is still the best at the position in the world.
  • KT can neutralize Griffin's strengths which are the Mid and ADC positions. KT's bot lane is stronger as a full unit. Lehends has been good but is not a natural support player and hasn't been particularly special this season as he's been carried pretty hard by the rest of his team. UCal and Chovy are evenly matched.
  • Kingzone gave KT a lot of information on how Griffin plan to attack a team similarly built to themselves.
  • Smeb can't possibly be as bad as he's been and should show up here against Sword who has rolled by getting Aatrox or played safe on Ornn for 7 of his 14 games this season.
  • Teams can't keep letting Griffin have optimal drafts and even KT should be able to figure that out. 
  • KT utterly destroyed Gen.G who are currently second only to Griffin.
  • This one is a bit more emotion/gut but this KT team is simply too talented to be 3-3. I know Korea is competitive and they shoot themselves in the foot but for my money, KT are the best team in the world when playing at their ceiling. We've seen it and they usually bring their best against the strongest teams.


Handicapped: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -109 (8 units)

SK Telecom looked much improved in their win over KT but let's not forget that game three was gifted to them and they still had chances to lose it. This SKT team is frustratingly mediocre and it makes me sad to see Faker and Bang stuck there but perhaps this will change with a metagame shift. Anyway I love spots like this. SKT coming off of an upset win with perceived momentum and Kingzone coming off a loss to Griffin in which they looked tilted almost immediately and the new guys were in their head means people are going to be down on this team (and up on Griffin) but let's not forget just how dominant this roster is. Gun to my head Kingzone is still the best League of Legends team in the world. If aliens were to invade and we needed one team to fight for humankind I'd want it to be Kingzone. The props and other lines tell us that the books believe the following:

  • Kingzone 2-0: -143 which is implied odds of 58.85% or -1.5 maps @ -109 which is 52%
  • Kingzone 2-1: +224 which is implied odds of 30.86%
  • SK Telecom 2-1: +476 which is implied odds of 17.36%
  • SK Telecom 2-0: +665 which is implied odds of 13.07%
  • SK Telecom +1.5: -119 which is implied odds of 54.35%
In order the books think the most likely of outcomes is Kingzone 2-0, Kingzone 2-1 and I feel the same way but by a much more significant amount. I think this is more likely in the 65%+ range for a Kingzone 2-0 which should have this -1.5 map handicap at around -186. I'm slamming this play. SKT looked better but did have a win more or less handed to them before the game started in game three vs KT and were utterly smashed in game one. Kingzone are coming off of an embarassing loss to Griffin and I think will return to "best team in the world" form. I somehow think everyone is sleeping on this team right now and I'm going to take advantage.


LMS (Taiwan) 6/28 Schedule:

Flash Wolves (-1250, -1.5 @ -227)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)

Machi eSports (+510, +1.5 @ +152)

AHQ eSports (+226, +1.5 @ -152)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)
Hong Kong Attitude (-357, -1.5 @ +105)

Moneyline: AHQ +226 (2 units)

Handicapped: AHQ +1.5 maps @ -152 (4 units)

I'm not a huge fan of AHQ and have constantly downed them as overrated by the public because people only remember the names from the worlds showings when they were the second best LMS team but that's no longer the case and hasn't been for a couple seasons now. That being said they're not the worst team in the LMS either. Hong Kong Attitude was one of the worst teams in the LMS and while they look improved this line is grossly inaccurate. AHQ's only fault this season is an 0-2 loss to the best team (by far) in their region in Flash Wolves who are like professionals playing against amatures. This match should be close and I actually think AHQ are close to or greater than 50% to win it so this line is WAY WAY out of whack. If I they were a better team I'd put more money on this but they are, ultimately, a middle of the table team in a weaker region so I'll limit this to 6 units total. That being said, if you like this read and are willing to take some risk this is a bet to slam because I think HKA are overrated because of one win (granted it was against a good team in GRex) and AHQ are severely underrated because of one loss to the best team in the region.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Betting: June 27th (LCK, LPL)

LCK  (Korea) 6/27 Schedule:

MVP (+176, +1.5 @ -179)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Hanwha Life eSports (-233, -1.5 @ +137)

Gen.G eSports (-588, -1.5 @ -161)
@ (O/U 30:00 minutes, 17.5 total kills)
BBQ Olivers (+389, +1.5 @ +119)

Jin Air GW (+396, +1.5 @ +108)
@ (O/U ?? minutes, ?? total kills)

Afreeca Freecs (-625, -1.5 @ -141)

Handicapped: Hanwha Life -1.5 maps @ +135 (4 units)

I was thinking a lot about this match and how MVP have actually looked sunstantially better even in their losses this split and appear to be the 7th/8th best team while Jin Air and BBQ currently look like the bottom two teams. If the meta shifts back toward more traditional play I think Jin Air will be ok but for now Teddy is stuck in hell. BBQ look downright awful (which is why they're going to win tomorrow and wreck me watch). MVP are competitive though so I was a little hesitant on this wager but Hanwha appear to be in that 3rd-5th range somewhere. They may not be as good as the best teams but they're reliably beating the teams that they should and are competitive against the great teams. With a win over Afreeca, a game taken from Gen.G and one of two games taken off of Griffin this split I think this team can be relied upon to take care of business. Last season they were similar, never really underestimating the bottom of the table teams and always smashing them because the playoff hunt was going to be tough. I think they're in a similar boat this year and with an SKT victory this morning it will be all the more important to maintain course against these bad teams. I may up this later tonight.


Handicapped: Gen.G eSports -1.5 maps @ -122 (5 units) (initial wager)

PROP: Exact Score Gen.G 2-1 victory @ +220  (1 unit) (Add on)

PROP: Exact Score  BBQ 2-1 victory @ +647 (1.5 units) (second Add On)

This looks like easy money. BBQ are probably the worst team in the league, if not bottom two and Gen.G are currently in 2nd place with their only loss coming to KT Rolster. The thing is, this is BBQ and this is Gen.G (Samsung) and these teams rarely make any sense. Both of these teams burned me a lot last season, Gen.G inparticular and it was these exact kinds of situations in which they did so I'm a little gunshy here. Gen.G have a history of taking weeks or matches off and giving up huge upsets. Now BBQ have only a single game victory this season but it was against Griffin which is respectable. I got paranoid and hedged this one a little bit and might completely hedge with the +1.5 later if this gets in my head more but this just has a weird feeling about it. 


Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 maps @ -143 (5 units)

Similarly to BBQ vs Gen.G this one has a bit of a weird feeling to it. Gut is telling me that Jin Air will really show up in a do or die situation but my brain is telling me that they just can't seem to figure this metagame out while Afreeca appear to have it on lock. I think I'm trying to hard to talk myself out of this because I had a bad past two days. Afreeca are similar to HLE in that they almost always take care of business against bad teams. They don't take weeks off and usually smash the bottom of the table teams unlike some of the higher ceiling teams like KT and Gen.G who will randomly not show up for certain matches or lose from arrogance. Might up this later on. I probably should.


LPL  (China) 6/27 Schedule:

Royal Never Give Up (-1667, -1.5 @ -263)
@ (O/U 31:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
Vici Gaming (+763, +1.5 @ +193)

Invictus Gaming (-714, -1.5 @ -147)
@ (O/U 30:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)

BiliBili Gaming (+437, +1.5 @ +105)

PROP: RNG vs Vici MAP 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -111 (1.5 units)

PROP: RNG vs Vici MAP 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -111 (1.5 units)

I don't particularly like either of these lines. I don't think the +193 is enough to coax me into a unit or two on the underdog to steal a game here but I also think -263 is a bit too rich for my blood here especially with Vici side selection for some weird suprise. We'll stick with the unders because I do think this is going to end up being a stomping.


Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -147 (6 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -115 (1.5 units)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -115 (1.5 units)

I love me some Invictus in this spot. They dropped a game against JD and didn't look like themselves but this is a team that doesn't mess around. They fix their problems, don't underestimate anyone, and I think they'll bounce back with a stomping against a BiliBili squad that is really struggling in this meta game with their slower, scaling playstyle.

Monday, June 25, 2018

Betting: June 26th (LPL, LCK)

LCK  (Korea) 6/26 Schedule:

SK Telecom (+275, +1.5 @ -116)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
KT Rolster (-385, -1.5 @ -112)

Kingzone DragonX (-303, -1.5 @ +122)
@ (O/U 32:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
Griffin (+222, +1.5 @ -159)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -112  (4 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 18.5 kills (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 18.5 kills (1 unit)

Both of these teams appear to be figuring themselves out and after rough starts trying their hand at this bizarre metagame they've both moved toward something more traditional and it's worked out well. SKT dispatched Jin Air relatively cleanly (game 2 could have been faster) with Bang back on a marksman and KT have done similarly with Deft. These are two of the best players of all time at the position so unless this game turns into half a dozen marksman bans then I expect these two squads will try to play that way. Because of this I like the UNDER on total kills. This will be my first kill o/u bet for the season but I think it makes sense here. Both teams are averaging 20.2 and 18.8 total kills+deaths per game respectively which should say play the over but they've also both "found" themselves a bit so I like a low kill game something like 12-4. Two slower paced, more traditional looking games that KT will have a slight edge in due to the mismatch of Smeb + Thal. The moneyline is too pricey but I like KT quite a bit here. It's normally dangerous betting for sweeps in the most heated rivalry in esports, The Telecom War, but I think KT are a full tier stronger than SKT at SKT's very best and they're only just now figuring out how to be a fraction of themselves. If you like you can hedge this game by taking the exact 1-2 KT victory @ +230 but I'm going to stick to KT Rolster for the sweep even though I think it could be two very close games especially because more tradiitonal looking team compositions from both sides could result in that 50/50 coin flip situation we saw so much last season with double scaling teams. 


Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -109 (3 units) (initial bet)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +122 (3 units)  (ADD ON)

Griffin are the hot new kids on the block and Kingzone have been solid but not quite their dominant, stylish selves. Because of these factors I think the public and books are riding a bit too dirty on the Griffin train. Don't get me wrong I love this squad but this is a similar situation to our RNG vs Suning bet from the LPL last week. Grisled vets time to knock the upstarts off their high horse. This is what great teams do and I'm expecting a similar reality check effect here. Now don't get me wrong, Griffin are the real deal, they're a good and exciting young team unlike the middling Suning who just had a hot start but this is the perfect spot for Kingzone to remind the everyone why they were the best team in the world until the World Championship last year.


LOL Pro League (China) 6/26 Schedule:

FunPlus Phoenix (-250, -1.5 @ +129)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
TopSports Gaming (+188, +1.5 @ -169)

EDward Gaming (-455, -1.5 @ -127)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
Snake eSports (+318, +1.5 @ -102)

Handicapped: EDward -1.5 maps @ -127 (2 units)

I've got a sketchy feeling about this one because last season these teams were competitive with each other but Snake are in a bit of a tailspin relative to their Spring split. Limiting this to two units for a few reasons. Snake has side selection and there's a chance Snake come out to a fast start and cheese a win here which is why these lines are weird like this. I still think EDG will win 2-0 likely winning easily once and perhaps winning a close one as well.

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Betting: June 25th (LPL)

LOL Pro League (China) 6/25 Schedule:

JD Gaming (-667, -1.5 @ -159)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
LGD Gaming (+419, +1.5 @ +121)

Invictus Gaming (-455, -1.5 @ -130)
@ (O/U: 33:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
Suning Gaming (+319, +1.5 @ +100)

Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -159 (6 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -116  (2 units)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -116  (2 units)

JD have been competitive with the top teams that they've faced defeating Royal Never Give Up and taking a game off of Invictus. They're looking to be one of the top 4 or 5 teams during this current early game centric meta since it's perfect for their aggressive playstyle. Until the game changes drastically they'll be a respectable team. LGD on the other hand look like they might be the worst or second worst team in the entire league. This is a tad scary because JD can beat themselves sometimes but we're not going to get lines like this against abysmal teams while the favorite is actually better than this number very often so we need to attack while we can before the books adjust.


Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @-130 (6 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116  (2 units)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116  (2 units)

Suning look good but as we called the other day, they're a tad overrated coming off of a fast start. Invictus, for my money, are still the best team in China despite not winning finals or going to MSI and they completely obliterate every team they face unless it's one of the other elite teams. Suning are good but they're not elite so our Invictus try hard and obliterate the competition rule applies. We're not going to get many more looks at lines this nice even in handicaps for Invictus so again jump on them while we can.

Betting: June 24th (LCK, LPL, LMS, NA LCS)

(copied reddit post since I don't have time to do a full writeup)

Up about 17.5 units in a massive massive day yesterday spiking a few huge underdog and close to even bets that were severely off such as Hanwha and my 10 unit pick of the week RNG. Heavy again today. I know some of these have started but I said I'd do a writeup even after the fact and can't quite sleep and I'm awake watching anyway so to hell with it! Here you go! No blog post today though.



**Total Season Record: 432 - 334 (56.4%) (Live bets EXCLUDED)**

**TOTAL SEASON RECORD (ALL BETS): 465 - 356 (56.38%)**

**LCK Record: 154 - 106 (59.23%)**

**LPL Record: 1106 - 95 (52.74)**

**LMS Record: 21 - 14 (60.0%)**

**TCL Record: 21 - 12 (63.64%)**

**EU LCS Record: 71 - 55 (56.35%)**

**NA LCS Record: 78 - 62 (55.71%)**

**LCL Record: 0 - 5 (0%)**

**Mid Season Invitational Record: 14 - 7 (66.66%)**

**YPW (Yield per Wager): +5.412%**

**Other stats like Handicapped, Prop bet, and live bet statistics AVAILABLE ON BLOG!!**


E-Sports - League of Legends - Sunday June 24th

*LOL Champions Korea - Start Time: 4am EST*

**SK Telecom** @ Jin Air GW  -  4 units  -  **Moneyline: SK Telecom -172**

SK Telecom @ Jin Air GW  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -116**

SK Telecom @ Jin Air GW  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -116**

**Kingzone DragonX** @ BBQ Olivers  -  5 units  -   **Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -250**

Kingzone DragonX @ BBQ Olivers  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 1 UNDER 29:00 @ -116**

Kingzone DragonX @ BBQ Olivers  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 2 UNDER 29:00 @ -116**

**Results: (pending)**


*LOL Pro League (China) - Start Time: 2am EST*

OMG @ **TopSports Gaming**  -  2 units  -  **Moneyline: TopSports +122** *LOSS*

OMG @ TopSports Gaming  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116** 

OMG @ TopSports Gaming  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116** *LOSS*

**EDward Gaming** @ Team WE  -  5 units  -  **Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +101**

EDward Gaming @ Team WE  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116**

EDward Gaming @ Team WE  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116**

**Rogue Warriors** @ FunPlus Phoenix  -  10 units  -  **Handicapped: RW  -1.5 maps @ -115**

Rogue Warriors @ FunPlus Phoenix  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -116**

Rogue Warriors @ FunPlus Phoenix  -  1.5 units  -  **PROP: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -116**

**Results: (pending)**


*League Masters Series (Taiwan) - Start Time: 5am EST*

Hong Kong Attitude @ **G-Rex**  -  6 units  -  **Handicapped: G-Rex -1.5 maps @ -115**

**Results: (pending)**


*North American LCS (North America) - Start Time: 5pm EST*

(waiting on lines)

**Results: (pending)**



**NET FOR SUNDAY: (pending)**


As always best of luck fam!

[Free picks, justification, and articles on my (almost) daily blog](

Twitter: [@GelatiLOL](

Friday, June 22, 2018

Betting: June 23rd (LPL, LCK, LMS, TCL, EU LCS, NA LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 6/23 Schedule:

Gen.G eSports (-120, -1.5 @ +261)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
KT Rolster (-105, +1.5 @ -370)

Afreeca Freecs (-435, -1.5 @ -112)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Hanwha Life eSports (+305, +1.5 @ -115)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -105 (4 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 @ +247  (1.5 units) (this is under props as 0-2)

Going out on a limb a bit here but for as good as Gen.G have looked I still think they've had a couple of games handed to them. Kingzone should have 2-0'd and the ever competitive but ultimately middle of the table HLE also took a game off of them decisively. I also think KT are due for a bit of a course correction here and will be up for this game after a win yesterday against BBQ to get their confidence back. This is a streaky team just like Gen.G and I think one could drop a few of their next games and KT will start winning after a rough starting schedule against the top squads. Side selection also goes to KT. I might up this in the morning but we'll keep it at this for now.


Moneyline: Hanwha Life eSports +305 (2 units)

Handicapped: Hanwha Life eSports +1.5 @ -115 (4 units)

This feels like such a sucker bet but I think it's the right one. HLE have a good read on the meta and just like they did last season they're fighting hard every single game. Afreeca are in their own tier to me. Slightly below the elite teams because their ceiling seems lower but much more consistent than Gen.G or KT Rolster. This feels like a hard fought back and forth 2-1 win for Afreeca and the handicaps tell that story while the moneylines tell a much different one. I like the "sucker" bet of HLE +1.5 @ -115 but I kinda like the moneyline at +305 as well. I could see HLE winning this and it doesn't seem that farfetched especially considering HLE were competitive with Gen.G and Griffin and took care of business against the bad teams in BBQ and Jin Air. 


LOL Pro League (China) 6/23 Schedule:

Vici Gaming (-118, -1.5 @ +207)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)
LGD (-108, +1.5 @ -286)

Suning Gaming (+110, +1.5 @ -286)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
JD Gaming (-141, -1.5 @ +210)

Royal Never Give Up (-400, -1.5 @ -105)
@ (O/U: 30:00 minutes, 21.5 total kills)
BiliBili Gaming (+286, +1.5 @ -122)

Handicapped: Royal Never Give Up -1.5 @ -105 (10 units) *PICK OF THE WEEK*

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Royal finally woke up and roflstomped a Suning Gaming team that was smelling themselves a bit too much after their 3-0 start. BiliBili on the other hand have been struggling mightily. Barely eeking out a win against Vici, losing to JDG, and getting dominated by Suning. I mean just put the pieces together on this one:

  1. Suning Gaming just got stomped by RNG, Suning Gaming stomped BiliBili just a few days ago.
  2. BiliBili benefited a lot from last seasons slow, methodical, scaling based play. It's what they're good at. This chaotic, fast-paced solo queue style play does not suit them.
  3. BiliBili were a very good team in that old metagame. Royal were a GREAT team in that old meta and are a great team in this meta because their players are better individually across the board and they've shown the ability to play up tempo unlike BBG.
  4. RNG are one of the two truly elite teams in China that will challenge for a world championship and after a bit of a rocky start they're going to kick it into gear. They started slow last split too and then rattled off double digit consecutive wins.
  5. RNG aren't changing their identity in an attempt to desperately adapt. They know who they are and they're damn good at it and still finding ways to make that work.
  6. They play BiliBili's style better than BiliBili does so you're covered from all angles on this one.


Moneyline: JD Gaming -141  (2 units)

Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +210 (0.5 units)

You know it's weird. This meta should be favoring JD's aggressive early game style but they're also a very one dimensional team that tunnels on their star ADC Loken. I don't think the LPL teams will continue to leave up Lucian and Kaisa for ADC centric teams. JD are perplexing. They took a game off of RNG but RNG were essentially sleeping and still won the series 2-1. JD also lost a game to the struggling BiliBili. They also took a game off of Invictus. I'm not sure which team is going to show up here but I think I like JD a bit to 2-1 if they're the average of the games so far this season. Suning are more steady but I think JD are the stronger team especially in this meta and I think there's an off chance that they "figure it out" and suddenly start dominating other mid table teams in this "chaos" style.


League Masters Series (Taiwan) 6/23 Schedule:

Mad Team (+172, +1.5 @ -192)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
Machi eSports (-263, -1.5 @ +131)

Flash Wolves (-455, -1.5 @ -115)
(O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
AHQ eSports (+274, +1.5 @ -125)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -115 (5 units)

There's a chance I get burned for this one and FW come out flat but this team utterly dominated the LMS last split and unless they take a day off, even if AHQ significantly improve I'd still take FW to 2-0. Flash Wolves are about as easy as it gets and lines like these won't be around once people remember that. Also people like to play up the age old AHQ/FW rivalry but AHQ haven't been relevant or good in a long long time even within the LMS.


Turkish Champions League (Turkey) 6/23 Schedule:

HWA Gaming +115 @ Team AURORA -156
Royal Bandits -500 @ Bursaspor eSports +285
1907 Fenerbahce -333 @ YouthCrew +227
SuperMassive -833 @ DarkPassage +448

(pending, awaiting prop numbers)


EU LCS (Europe) 6/23 Schedule:

FC Schalke 04 -137 @ ROCCT +107
Misfits -222 @ Giants +169
G2 eSports -313 @ H2K +230
Splyce -192 @ Unicorns of Love +148
Fnatic -172 @ Vitality +134

Moneyline: Splyce -192 (2 units)

Moneyline: Fnatic -172 (2 units)

UoL are horrible and Splyce have started off 0-3 and are in dire need of some wins. Even with the slow start last split Splyce still took care of the bad teams when they played them. I expect this team to get their asses together much quicker this season even with the weird metagame. They're just stronger all around than UoL and hopefully care a lot more.

Fnatic mixed things up with Bwipo playing "adc" but this is mostly a bet on the fact that despite their wins Vitality have looked really underwhelming to me. Take it with a grain of salt because I'm a hater or whatever but I still don't think this Vitality team is that good just because they've won a few. This is a risky wager though. Big line for a tea mwith lineup changes against a perceived "good" team but I'm following my gut on this one.

Parlay: Fnatic, Splyce, G2, Misfits, Schalke 5 teamer for a unit. Seems like a pretty predictable slate tomorrow even with meta considered.


NA LCS (Europe) 6/23 Schedule:

Team Liquid -175 @ Counter Logic Gaming +128
Team Solo Mid -227 @ Clutch Gaming +167
Echo Fox -455 @ OpTic Gaming +304
100 Thieves -208 @ FlyQuest +154

PROP: Echo @ OpT UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Moneyline: FlyQuest +154 (2 units)

PROP: Liquid @ CLG  UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Not a lot of action to like here. Parlay it if you wish but I will be playing the unders in games that I'm considering for blowout potential (if that's a thing in this meta, all games are). Upping the under wagers on these imbalanced games. FlyQuest is mostly just a "due for a win/due for a loss" along with side selection. I like this FlyQuest lineup a bit more than last split. It's more cohesive they've just had to face Echo Fox and TSM. I like the value for an upset here as I STILL THINK 100 THIEVES IS OVERRATED. They can't be better than they were last season. That was basically the Vegas Golden Knights in League of Legends.