April 9th Recap:
LPL: 12 - 2 (+6.032 units)
LCK: 16 - 4 (+4.976 units)
Total: 28 - 6 (+11.008 units)
RNG/LGD (Net: -1.52)
I mentioned in the writeup that LGD have jumped out to leads on people (and squandered plenty too). This was a case where they jumped out and didn't let up. LGD actually looked quite good but RNG did look a little off. Betty had some of the only major mistakes I've seen him make this year and Xiaohu was... well let's just say game one was rough for him. RNG will be fine this was just an off performance. LGD, however, were impressive.
EDG/LNG (Net: +1.732)
We didn't exactly get to see a lot of highlights from Jinoo as he was on Ornn duty but LNG gave EDG Ornn, Azir, Kalista, AND Taric in game one. They get Aphelios and Leblanc and were going to try to snowball the game with their Olaf jungle but EDG were able to weather the storm of first blood, take the first drake, and eventually Xx's Olaf fell off because they couldn't get enough done. It was close for a bit in game one but game two was an EDG blowout. It was nice seeing LNG try to play uptempo but they were clearly not as comfortable.
IG/JDG (Net: +5.82)
Game one was close and full of punts for both teams. Pat McAfee would have been proud! Game two was an utter stomping by JDG. I told you guys, this team is actually good. They might not be as good as IG or FunPlus but they're in that elite tier with them and there was absolutely no way they should have been such huge underdogs. Nice payoff for us.
Another note, Kanavi is looking like one of the more explosive junglers on the planet right now. I bet the Griffin organization is kicking themselves for trying to steal money from this poor young kid. For those that don't know, Griffin loaned Kanavi to JDG during the Summer last year, similar to how soccer clubs do. JDG enjoyed playing with him and wanted to buy out his contract. Griffin's management convinced him to take the deal that JDG offered but because he was young and didn't have counsel, didn't read that the contract was almost entirely a "transfer fee" that Griffin's management would collect leaving a criminally low amount for Kanavi. TL:DR - he got screwed out of a ton of money and was locked into a multi-year deal. I'll have to look into whether they gave him a new contract or if he's just working for basically peanuts and putting up this kind of performance in hopes of collecting a giant paycheck after this year because it sure as hell looks that way. He's playing out of his mind AND Kindred just got buffed... look out.
Sandbox/T1 (Net: +1.422)
T1 are so clinical when they're not experimenting. They're a finely tuned machine and it's actually beautiful to watch.
Afreeca/Griffin (Net: +3.554)
Afreeca showed up to play and the Kiin vs Sword matchup was about as bad as we anticpated it would be for Sword. When he locked Jayce it felt like the game was over already as Kiin proceeded to body him while counterpicked... beautiful. That said, Afreeca had a few clumsy errors like we've come to expect from them so I still don't entirely trust this team but All-In had a really good day and should be the mid moving forward. Perhaps Afreeca finally got the wakeup call they needed because they looked much more prepared and like themselves in this match.
Overall an excellent bounce back day after an abysmal one yesterday. We'll take those!
I have to be much briefer on pulling a lot of the numbers for this writeup just because I'm limited on time this week but I'll post thoughts and picks anyway.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 6 - Day 5
Trends:
Is this it? Is this finally the chance for Victory Five to take a game? You know they had to have had this match circled on their calendars... Seriously folks Dominus as a -478 favorite? GTFO! I feel like I just have to take a shot on Victory Five just on principal but man.. you wanna talk about a hold your nose bet... I mean realistically Dominus 2-0 this but the likelihood of that happening isn't as much as I think these odds are.
This does feel a bit like Jin Air last year where I kept saying "this is the week" and it more or less never happened. Victory Five might be the worst professional team in major history or at least since the early years. Even the historically bad 2019 Jin Air Green Wings had 4 game wins in Spring... You can see why I don't trust Griffin's coach, former Jin Air coach H Dragon.
We had a lot of fun with this one on the podcast this week so I'd encourage you to check that out.
Of note, we're getting Xiaowei instead of Xiye in the mid for DMO and Mole, the converted mid laner, in the top lane for V5 over Aliez. That makes me think we might see a more explosive game with a lot of kills and fewer tanks, especially since Natural likes to play carries. High fiesta potential.
Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ -110 (0.55 units)
Moneyline: V5 +337 (0.25 units)
SpreaD: V5 -1.5 maps @ +653 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +100 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ +153 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +102 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ +139 (0.1 units)
----
----
T1 -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
vs
KT Rolster +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
Ahhh The Telecom War!
The Telecom War is the oldest rivalry in eSports dating all the way back to Starcraft in the early 2000's. It's the eSports equivalent of an original six matchup in hockey or El Clasico in soccer, etc. Historically these teams have always elevated for this match and there have been a number of instant classics ... but that hasn't been the case recently. KT have been pretty poor since the legendary Score, one of the greatest players of all time, retired and T1 have been dominant most of that time since. Does this crew of savvy veterans have what it takes to find an upset?
For the sake of being short because I'm limited on time, yes but I think T1 is just a little bit too good for them to handle. I'm taking a half stake on the T1 -1.5 instead of the full stake. I think KT will be competitive but when you factor everything in it's difficult to see anything other than the T1 2-0 as the most likely outcome in this series. KT struggled mightily with DragonX and I think we'll see a similar thing here even if I think they are the 4th best team in the LCK. The elite teams are just too good.
Both of these teams are capable of closing games in a hurry. KT prefer to. If KT are to win any games I think that's how they'd do it so we'll find some KT exposure through the under time total. Whoever wins these games will likely be doing so quickly.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -111 (0.555 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
--------------------------
Victory Five +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
vs
Dominus -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
V5: Mole, Xiaohan, Clx, y4, Max
Dom: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiaowei, GALA, Mark
vs
Dominus -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
V5: Mole, Xiaohan, Clx, y4, Max
Dom: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiaowei, GALA, Mark
Trends:
Is this it? Is this finally the chance for Victory Five to take a game? You know they had to have had this match circled on their calendars... Seriously folks Dominus as a -478 favorite? GTFO! I feel like I just have to take a shot on Victory Five just on principal but man.. you wanna talk about a hold your nose bet... I mean realistically Dominus 2-0 this but the likelihood of that happening isn't as much as I think these odds are.
This does feel a bit like Jin Air last year where I kept saying "this is the week" and it more or less never happened. Victory Five might be the worst professional team in major history or at least since the early years. Even the historically bad 2019 Jin Air Green Wings had 4 game wins in Spring... You can see why I don't trust Griffin's coach, former Jin Air coach H Dragon.
We had a lot of fun with this one on the podcast this week so I'd encourage you to check that out.
Of note, we're getting Xiaowei instead of Xiye in the mid for DMO and Mole, the converted mid laner, in the top lane for V5 over Aliez. That makes me think we might see a more explosive game with a lot of kills and fewer tanks, especially since Natural likes to play carries. High fiesta potential.
Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ -110 (0.55 units)
Moneyline: V5 +337 (0.25 units)
SpreaD: V5 -1.5 maps @ +653 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +100 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ +153 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +102 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ +139 (0.1 units)
----
Vici Gaming +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
FPX: Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
Trends:
Vici had been improving over the course of the season and Forge is well positioned in this metagame with his champion pool but after watching that last loss I just have zero faith in this team. There were so many basic fundamental errors that I'm questioning how good they actually are. I'm normally pretty good about not overreacting to a bad loss but that series had red flags all over it.
FPX are going to obliterate Vici. I know they've been sketchy in game ones but Doinb vs any player that has a tendency to feed is a matchup I want a part of. Similar thoughts on Lwx/Crisp vs iBoy.
There are limited offerings on this one for some reason right now. Check back later for add-ons.
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units) (Nitrogen)
----
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
FPX: Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
Trends:
Vici had been improving over the course of the season and Forge is well positioned in this metagame with his champion pool but after watching that last loss I just have zero faith in this team. There were so many basic fundamental errors that I'm questioning how good they actually are. I'm normally pretty good about not overreacting to a bad loss but that series had red flags all over it.
FPX are going to obliterate Vici. I know they've been sketchy in game ones but Doinb vs any player that has a tendency to feed is a matchup I want a part of. Similar thoughts on Lwx/Crisp vs iBoy.
There are limited offerings on this one for some reason right now. Check back later for add-ons.
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units) (Nitrogen)
----
BiliBili Gaming +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
TOP eSports -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
Lineups:
BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
vs
TOP eSports -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
Lineups:
BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
Trends:
I feel like I need to address the elephant in the room for TOP because I've replied to about a dozen Twitter messages about it. I don't think JackeyLove is playing this season. You don't simply replaced thousands of hours building chemistry with your support and teammates and learning the communication on the spot. As much as ADC is a plug-and-play role sometimes, it's not as easy to just replace someone like that. I've also mentioned that individual player skill matters way less than it has in previous seasons. Not that it doesn't matter just a lot less so why mess things up? Photic has been fine. Most of the situations he's looked bad in were not his fault. We also don't know what kind of form JackeyLove is in? Is he in game shape? Has he been practicing? We've never seen him outside the context of one of the best teams of all time so how good can he really be? I think he's certainly one of the better ADCs in the league but perhaps he's a bit overrated because of the team he was on? The point I'm making is we JUST DON'T KNOW. Cool the jets people let it play out.
TOP have been a bit sloppy of late and BiliBili have looked a bit better. This is sort of a hold your nose or "close your eyes special" as the SGP guys like to say. I think BiliBili probably find a way to get a game. TOP have been a way better team but in their past three matches they've looked somewhat checked-out as if they've accepted that they're a playoff team but not trying to compete for the higher seeding. TOP should 2-0 but I think BLG get a game at a higher clip than the odds suggest so we'll play the numbers here. BLG have taken games off of some of the good teams like FPX and RNG and similarly rated teams to tOP like EDG, eSTar.
BLG have a tendency to get walloped when they lose so I won't mess with kill spreads for this matchup. Their AMOV is very high at 11.85 one of the worst in the league.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -119 (1.19 units)
Moneyline. BiliBili +251 (0.25 units)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +553 (0.1 units)
------------------------
I feel like I need to address the elephant in the room for TOP because I've replied to about a dozen Twitter messages about it. I don't think JackeyLove is playing this season. You don't simply replaced thousands of hours building chemistry with your support and teammates and learning the communication on the spot. As much as ADC is a plug-and-play role sometimes, it's not as easy to just replace someone like that. I've also mentioned that individual player skill matters way less than it has in previous seasons. Not that it doesn't matter just a lot less so why mess things up? Photic has been fine. Most of the situations he's looked bad in were not his fault. We also don't know what kind of form JackeyLove is in? Is he in game shape? Has he been practicing? We've never seen him outside the context of one of the best teams of all time so how good can he really be? I think he's certainly one of the better ADCs in the league but perhaps he's a bit overrated because of the team he was on? The point I'm making is we JUST DON'T KNOW. Cool the jets people let it play out.
TOP have been a bit sloppy of late and BiliBili have looked a bit better. This is sort of a hold your nose or "close your eyes special" as the SGP guys like to say. I think BiliBili probably find a way to get a game. TOP have been a way better team but in their past three matches they've looked somewhat checked-out as if they've accepted that they're a playoff team but not trying to compete for the higher seeding. TOP should 2-0 but I think BLG get a game at a higher clip than the odds suggest so we'll play the numbers here. BLG have taken games off of some of the good teams like FPX and RNG and similarly rated teams to tOP like EDG, eSTar.
BLG have a tendency to get walloped when they lose so I won't mess with kill spreads for this matchup. Their AMOV is very high at 11.85 one of the worst in the league.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -119 (1.19 units)
Moneyline. BiliBili +251 (0.25 units)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +553 (0.1 units)
------------------------
LCK (Korea)
Week 8 - Day 3
DAMWON Gaming +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
DragonX -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
DAMWON with the absolute no-show the other day was rage inducing but it would not surprise me AT ALL to see them show up for this match as if that one was a look-ahead spot.
That said, I still think DragonX 2-0 even with a good performance from DAMWON.
DragonX are an elite team on the level of T1 and Gen.G. The only reason this number is where it's at is because DAMWON beat a T1 team that handed a win directly to them with the Senna limit-testing.
DragonX smash.
Moneyline: DragonX -250 (2.5 units)
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ +129 (1 unit)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: DRX -6.5 kills @ +108 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -7.5 kills @ +142 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: DRX -6.5 kills @ +113 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -7.5 kills @ +147 (0.2 units)
vs
DragonX -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
DAMWON with the absolute no-show the other day was rage inducing but it would not surprise me AT ALL to see them show up for this match as if that one was a look-ahead spot.
That said, I still think DragonX 2-0 even with a good performance from DAMWON.
DragonX are an elite team on the level of T1 and Gen.G. The only reason this number is where it's at is because DAMWON beat a T1 team that handed a win directly to them with the Senna limit-testing.
DragonX smash.
Moneyline: DragonX -250 (2.5 units)
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ +129 (1 unit)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: DRX -6.5 kills @ +108 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -7.5 kills @ +142 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: DRX -6.5 kills @ +113 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -7.5 kills @ +147 (0.2 units)
----
T1 -369 (-1.5 @ -113)
vs
KT Rolster +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
Ahhh The Telecom War!
The Telecom War is the oldest rivalry in eSports dating all the way back to Starcraft in the early 2000's. It's the eSports equivalent of an original six matchup in hockey or El Clasico in soccer, etc. Historically these teams have always elevated for this match and there have been a number of instant classics ... but that hasn't been the case recently. KT have been pretty poor since the legendary Score, one of the greatest players of all time, retired and T1 have been dominant most of that time since. Does this crew of savvy veterans have what it takes to find an upset?
For the sake of being short because I'm limited on time, yes but I think T1 is just a little bit too good for them to handle. I'm taking a half stake on the T1 -1.5 instead of the full stake. I think KT will be competitive but when you factor everything in it's difficult to see anything other than the T1 2-0 as the most likely outcome in this series. KT struggled mightily with DragonX and I think we'll see a similar thing here even if I think they are the 4th best team in the LCK. The elite teams are just too good.
Both of these teams are capable of closing games in a hurry. KT prefer to. If KT are to win any games I think that's how they'd do it so we'll find some KT exposure through the under time total. Whoever wins these games will likely be doing so quickly.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -111 (0.555 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
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LEC (Europe)
Playoffs
Round 2 - Losers' Bracket
Round 2 - Losers' Bracket
Rogue +246 (+1.5 @ -102, +2.5 @ -313)
vs
Origen -369 (-1.5 @ -141, -2.5 @ +222)
Trends:
Rogue are just 2-6 as underdogs (including playoff series)
Origen are 12-2 as favorites
I was originally leaning toward Rogue under the premise that they're more or less the diet version of Origen and are also pretty good but I saw a few things in the Misfits series that were minor concerns and then I remembered that old adage "Origen don't lose to worse teams than them." Unless it's Fnatic or G2 injecting chaos and variance into the game, Origen are simply too fundamentally good and their players too excellent at laning to bet against them unless it's a weird/wild team. Rogue don't have an edge at any position on the map to me and when you play against Origen you either need at least one to try to exploit or to just be wild. I don't see Rogue doing that or getting enough of a draft edge on the consistent drafting of Origen.
I also like the under on kill total. It seems obvious with these two teams which would lead you to expect a lower total but this number is surprisingly high at 22.5. Josh mentioned this one on the podcast and I'm with him 100% on it. Two of the lowest CKPM teams in the league, a high stakes situation, and team teams that give up very few windows of opportunity back into a game once they have a lead. I'll split a unit on the under between 22.5 and 21.5 (for plus money) on each of the first three maps. Since I like the under I'm going to avoid the OG kill spreads. Rogues aren't at a nice price or I'd mess with theirs.
Moneyline: Origen -312 (3.12 units)
Spread: Origen -1.5 maps @ -132 (1.32 units)
Spread: Origen -2.5 maps @ +249 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ +100 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -123 (0.615 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ +100 (0.5 units)
-------------------------
vs
Origen -369 (-1.5 @ -141, -2.5 @ +222)
Trends:
Rogue are just 2-6 as underdogs (including playoff series)
Origen are 12-2 as favorites
I was originally leaning toward Rogue under the premise that they're more or less the diet version of Origen and are also pretty good but I saw a few things in the Misfits series that were minor concerns and then I remembered that old adage "Origen don't lose to worse teams than them." Unless it's Fnatic or G2 injecting chaos and variance into the game, Origen are simply too fundamentally good and their players too excellent at laning to bet against them unless it's a weird/wild team. Rogue don't have an edge at any position on the map to me and when you play against Origen you either need at least one to try to exploit or to just be wild. I don't see Rogue doing that or getting enough of a draft edge on the consistent drafting of Origen.
I also like the under on kill total. It seems obvious with these two teams which would lead you to expect a lower total but this number is surprisingly high at 22.5. Josh mentioned this one on the podcast and I'm with him 100% on it. Two of the lowest CKPM teams in the league, a high stakes situation, and team teams that give up very few windows of opportunity back into a game once they have a lead. I'll split a unit on the under between 22.5 and 21.5 (for plus money) on each of the first three maps. Since I like the under I'm going to avoid the OG kill spreads. Rogues aren't at a nice price or I'd mess with theirs.
Moneyline: Origen -312 (3.12 units)
Spread: Origen -1.5 maps @ -132 (1.32 units)
Spread: Origen -2.5 maps @ +249 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ +100 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -123 (0.615 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ +100 (0.5 units)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): DragonX ML + Origen ML @ -109 (1.09 units)
Parlay (2): DragonX -1.5 maps + Origen -1.5 maps @ +314 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): DragonX ML + Origen ML @ -109 (1.09 units)
Parlay (2): DragonX -1.5 maps + Origen -1.5 maps @ +314 (0.25 units)
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