April 18th Recap:
LCK: 2 - 3 (-3.2125 units)
LPL: 11 - 8 (+2.972 units)
LEC: 5 - 4 (+1.5 units)
LCS: 2 - 4 (-1.105 units)
Parlays: -2.71 units
Total: -2.5525 units
KT Rolster / DAMWON (Net: -3.2125)
Tough to see the savvy vets go down like that but DAMWON played very well today. Still think it was the right side, still got a bunch of CLV, would do it again. DAMWON just showed well on the day.
V5 / Vici (Net: -0.12)
Well... we just witnessed the worst season in professional history. Glad we only bet V5 once
Rogue Warriors / FPX (Net: +1.217)
Rogue Warriors fought valiantly and actually managed to take one. I've got a lot of respect for this team I didn't think they'd get one to be honest.
Suning / RNG (Net: +1.875)
RNG perfect gamed in game one, got rocked in game two, and looked on ther way to a dominant game three win before punting it in spectacular fashion. We got really lucky on this one, would have been a net loss. Sometimes better lucky than good I suppose.
It's going to be a short post tonight, been crazy busy, not getting a lot of sleep, going to relax and probably stream or just kick it with a beer and a movie tonight but wanted to get picks out and some basic thoughts so I'm not just tweeting non-stop all night.
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LPL: 11 - 8 (+2.972 units)
LEC: 5 - 4 (+1.5 units)
LCS: 2 - 4 (-1.105 units)
Parlays: -2.71 units
Total: -2.5525 units
KT Rolster / DAMWON (Net: -3.2125)
Tough to see the savvy vets go down like that but DAMWON played very well today. Still think it was the right side, still got a bunch of CLV, would do it again. DAMWON just showed well on the day.
V5 / Vici (Net: -0.12)
Well... we just witnessed the worst season in professional history. Glad we only bet V5 once
Rogue Warriors / FPX (Net: +1.217)
Rogue Warriors fought valiantly and actually managed to take one. I've got a lot of respect for this team I didn't think they'd get one to be honest.
Suning / RNG (Net: +1.875)
RNG perfect gamed in game one, got rocked in game two, and looked on ther way to a dominant game three win before punting it in spectacular fashion. We got really lucky on this one, would have been a net loss. Sometimes better lucky than good I suppose.
It's going to be a short post tonight, been crazy busy, not getting a lot of sleep, going to relax and probably stream or just kick it with a beer and a movie tonight but wanted to get picks out and some basic thoughts so I'm not just tweeting non-stop all night.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
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LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 7
Trends:
I still think JDG are going to try to play for the top two seed and a bye into semi-finals and hope FPX lose. LGD have been one of the fiesty underdogs in the LPL but now that they're eliminated it's tough to tell if that fire will still be there.
The numbers suggest an under 26.5 here but there's still a reasonable chance this game devolves into a fiesta as well so I'm just going to stick to JDG's spread.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)
----
LGD Gaming +334 (+1.5 @ -102)
vs
JD Gaming -556 (-1.5 @ -146)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
vs
JD Gaming -556 (-1.5 @ -146)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
Trends:
I still think JDG are going to try to play for the top two seed and a bye into semi-finals and hope FPX lose. LGD have been one of the fiesty underdogs in the LPL but now that they're eliminated it's tough to tell if that fire will still be there.
The numbers suggest an under 26.5 here but there's still a reasonable chance this game devolves into a fiesta as well so I'm just going to stick to JDG's spread.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)
----
EDward Gaming -356 (-1.5 @ -116)
vs
Team WE +244 (+1.5 @ -128)
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
Trends:
EDG is starting Aodi and JunJia because they cant move up or down enough for anything to matter. They're locked for playoffs. They could potentially move up to 5th seed to maybe have side selection but there's not a lot of motivation to win or not lose this match. The thing is, Aodi, and JunJia were actually really good and they'll be playing for potential jobs in the offseason so don't rule out EDG here.
Team WE have to win this match to force the win and in vs OMG tomorrow morning. WE have the unenviable task of playing four series in five days which is unprecedented. They did NOT look good in their last match against LNG. It looks in-game that the pressure/nerves MIGHT be getting to them but... this is also what you sign up for when you play the style Team WE do. You're just going to lose sometimes when you force skirmishes and play weird mid lane picks.
I think Team WE are the public dogs in this spot. A lot of people are in love with the narrative but EDG are a significantly better team even with the Aodi/JunJia lineup.
I cap this total ~ 26.4 but I'm going with the under. Pressure, EDG's overall discipline as a team and low KPW/KPL numbers and the situation suggest more outcomes coming under than over.
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -127 (0.635 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
----
LNG eSports +662 (+1.5 @ +180)
vs
Invictus Gaming -1538 (-1.5 @ -272)
Lineups:
LNG: Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
Trends:
The long story short here is that this game doesn't matter for either team with IG locking #1 and LNG eliminated so we might see a complete and total clown fiesta. LNG showed well in their last series vs WE. IG aren't the same style of team but when they loosen up they can be.
I like the dogs here. Invictus are going to try to clown around or do something weird. Over kill totals and underdog special.
Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ +184 (1 unit)
Moneyline: LNG +704 (0.5 units)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: LNG +8.5 kills @ +104 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Kill Total: OVER 30.5 @ +118 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ +137 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +159 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: LNG +8.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Kill Total: OVER 30.5 @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ +134 (0.1 units)
vs
Team WE +244 (+1.5 @ -128)
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
Trends:
EDG is starting Aodi and JunJia because they cant move up or down enough for anything to matter. They're locked for playoffs. They could potentially move up to 5th seed to maybe have side selection but there's not a lot of motivation to win or not lose this match. The thing is, Aodi, and JunJia were actually really good and they'll be playing for potential jobs in the offseason so don't rule out EDG here.
Team WE have to win this match to force the win and in vs OMG tomorrow morning. WE have the unenviable task of playing four series in five days which is unprecedented. They did NOT look good in their last match against LNG. It looks in-game that the pressure/nerves MIGHT be getting to them but... this is also what you sign up for when you play the style Team WE do. You're just going to lose sometimes when you force skirmishes and play weird mid lane picks.
I think Team WE are the public dogs in this spot. A lot of people are in love with the narrative but EDG are a significantly better team even with the Aodi/JunJia lineup.
I cap this total ~ 26.4 but I'm going with the under. Pressure, EDG's overall discipline as a team and low KPW/KPL numbers and the situation suggest more outcomes coming under than over.
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -127 (0.635 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
----
LNG eSports +662 (+1.5 @ +180)
vs
Invictus Gaming -1538 (-1.5 @ -272)
Lineups:
LNG: Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
Trends:
The long story short here is that this game doesn't matter for either team with IG locking #1 and LNG eliminated so we might see a complete and total clown fiesta. LNG showed well in their last series vs WE. IG aren't the same style of team but when they loosen up they can be.
I like the dogs here. Invictus are going to try to clown around or do something weird. Over kill totals and underdog special.
Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ +184 (1 unit)
Moneyline: LNG +704 (0.5 units)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: LNG +8.5 kills @ +104 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Kill Total: OVER 30.5 @ +118 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ +137 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +159 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: LNG +8.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Kill Total: OVER 30.5 @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ +134 (0.1 units)
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LEC (Europe)
Grand Finals
Fnatic +115 (+1.5 @ -204, +2.5 @ -649)
vs
G2 eSports -163 (-1.5 @ +135, -2.5 @ +345)
There has been a ton of movement on this match. I saw as high as G2 -170 at some books and it's now down to around even money at a lot of places. Lot of steam on Fnatic.
What's wild about this series is that last year these two teams went to five games twice in two of the most entertaining series of 2019 and I think this current iteration of Fnatic at this current time is probably better than that team was so my heart is telling me Fnatic but my brain sees all the things G2 does and it's just so unbelievably difficult to beat this team.
Going with G2 first blood even though I'm light on the side on this match due to rates vastly different than implied odds just like yesterday.
I think G2 probably win this series but this should be a slobberknocker and this time around I could definitely see Fnatic actually winning.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -112 (1.12 units)
Prop: Exact G2 3-1 @ +378 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Prop: G2 first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Prop: G2 first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +110 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Prop: G2 first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +106 (0.5 units)
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------------------------
Fnatic +115 (+1.5 @ -204, +2.5 @ -649)
vs
G2 eSports -163 (-1.5 @ +135, -2.5 @ +345)
There has been a ton of movement on this match. I saw as high as G2 -170 at some books and it's now down to around even money at a lot of places. Lot of steam on Fnatic.
What's wild about this series is that last year these two teams went to five games twice in two of the most entertaining series of 2019 and I think this current iteration of Fnatic at this current time is probably better than that team was so my heart is telling me Fnatic but my brain sees all the things G2 does and it's just so unbelievably difficult to beat this team.
Going with G2 first blood even though I'm light on the side on this match due to rates vastly different than implied odds just like yesterday.
I think G2 probably win this series but this should be a slobberknocker and this time around I could definitely see Fnatic actually winning.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -112 (1.12 units)
Prop: Exact G2 3-1 @ +378 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Prop: G2 first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Prop: G2 first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +110 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Prop: G2 first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: OVER 31.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ +106 (0.5 units)
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LCS (North America)
Grand Finals
FlyQuest
vs
Cloud 9
Currently this is OTB at most places or with limited markets likely to prevent parlay plays.
I'll put what I have so far and update as I go. I think Cloud 9 are going to 3-0 stomp this series, 3-1 at worst. I don't think FlyQuest can make any kind of miracle happen this Cloud 9 team is legitimately world class.
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 kills @ +107 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 kills @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 kills @ +104 (0.5 units)
FlyQuest
vs
Cloud 9
Currently this is OTB at most places or with limited markets likely to prevent parlay plays.
I'll put what I have so far and update as I go. I think Cloud 9 are going to 3-0 stomp this series, 3-1 at worst. I don't think FlyQuest can make any kind of miracle happen this Cloud 9 team is legitimately world class.
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 kills @ +107 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 kills @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 kills @ +104 (0.5 units)
Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
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