April 24th Recap:
LPL: 4 - 2 (+1.835 units)
Total: 4 - 2 (+1.835 units)
I had a lot of thoughts about this series on Twitter
Neither team played particularly well to me which doesn't bode well for TOP's prospects moving forward. We got to see the indiividual skill on display but there were also lapses in execution. My primary concern isn't execution though it's playing to your win conditions. TOP seem really set on whatever they have their mind on and are unwilling to adapt. Going tear AND double cull in that game four against a WE comp that absolutely had to get ahead and then willingly taking losing fights is just not a good idea. It spoon-feeds the enemies win condition to them. That was just one example but that, their weird fascination with Lee Sin, and some just weird evaluations (or lack thereof) of game states was concerning to me. TOP are still tremendously talented but I'm not as confident in them as I was before this series. They didn't exactly look sharp in their approach or execution relative to what I'd expect from a team of their potential caliber.
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Total: 4 - 2 (+1.835 units)
I had a lot of thoughts about this series on Twitter
Neither team played particularly well to me which doesn't bode well for TOP's prospects moving forward. We got to see the indiividual skill on display but there were also lapses in execution. My primary concern isn't execution though it's playing to your win conditions. TOP seem really set on whatever they have their mind on and are unwilling to adapt. Going tear AND double cull in that game four against a WE comp that absolutely had to get ahead and then willingly taking losing fights is just not a good idea. It spoon-feeds the enemies win condition to them. That was just one example but that, their weird fascination with Lee Sin, and some just weird evaluations (or lack thereof) of game states was concerning to me. TOP are still tremendously talented but I'm not as confident in them as I was before this series. They didn't exactly look sharp in their approach or execution relative to what I'd expect from a team of their potential caliber.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
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LCK (Korea)
T1 to win Spring: 2 units to win 17.6 units
Will talk about this at the bottom
Gen.G eSports +132 (+1.5 @ -190, +2.5 @ -690)
vs
T1 -175 (-1.5 @ +126, -2.5 @ +335)
This line has been all over the place. I've seen as high as -188 and as low as -143 for T1 but it's also been up and down. Earlier in the week you could find those lower numbers and then it spiked up to the -170s+ range and now it seems to be settling down to around the mid -150s most places.
The TL:DR is that I think these two teams are evenly matched but that T1 look scary at the moment so I'd give them a slight edge. I think T1 win this series but that it will be competitive. Given all the money pouring in on T1 the "value" is almost definitely on Gen.G. After all, how often do you see the #1 seed as a dog (more about that in the TAN article) .
Typically you want to hedge in a way that maximizes the highest guaranteed profit. In this case it would be to hedge my futures position on T1 by putting 7.93 units on Gen.G @ +122 to lock a 7.67 unit profit. I was going to do a hedge that slightly leaned in favor of T1 since I think they win this series but the correct thing to do is to just take the guaranteed profit so I will. (I did this earlier in the week because I wasn't entirely confident the line would move as strongly as it did toward T1). You can get +141 on Gen.G on Nitrogen if the value sticks out to you.
For book keeping purposes I'll be counting this hedge in my futures portfolio not my LCK bets for the split so you won't see it on the LCK page on the spreadsheet.
For book keeping purposes I'll be counting this hedge in my futures portfolio not my LCK bets for the split so you won't see it on the LCK page on the spreadsheet.
Hedge on T1 Future
Moneyline: Gen.G +122 (7.93 units)
---
Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -400 (4 units)
Map Total: OVER 4.5 maps @ +164 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -141 (0.705 units)
Prop: Gen.G first tower @ -114 (0.57 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)
Prop: Gen.G first tower @ -111 (0.555 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -139 (0.695 units)
Prop: Gen.G first tower @ -115 (0.575 units)
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Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -400 (4 units)
Map Total: OVER 4.5 maps @ +164 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -141 (0.705 units)
Prop: Gen.G first tower @ -114 (0.57 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)
Prop: Gen.G first tower @ -111 (0.555 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -139 (0.695 units)
Prop: Gen.G first tower @ -115 (0.575 units)
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LPL (China)
Futures Positions (post in link and on sidebar):
JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units
FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
eStar to win Spring: 0.1 units to win 25.0 units
Still looking pretty good. If FunPlus beat whoever wins EDG / RNG I'm more or less locked in for profit in LPL futures this season. If JDG wins I'm in line for some big ones.
Futures Positions (post in link and on sidebar):
JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units
FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
Still looking pretty good. If FunPlus beat whoever wins EDG / RNG I'm more or less locked in for profit in LPL futures this season. If JDG wins I'm in line for some big ones.
Playoffs Round 1
See the Action Network article for trends and details on my positions.
Gotta save these wrists homies.
Spread: EDG +2.5 maps @ -244 (2.44 units)
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ +140 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: EDG +349 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -120 (0.6 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +122 (0.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -119 (0.595 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +111 (0.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -114 (0.57 units)
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EDward Gaming +274 (+1.5 @ +118, +2.5 @ -287)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -424 (-1.5 @ -167, -2.5 @ +197)
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -424 (-1.5 @ -167, -2.5 @ +197)
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
See the Action Network article for trends and details on my positions.
Gotta save these wrists homies.
Spread: EDG +2.5 maps @ -244 (2.44 units)
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ +140 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: EDG +349 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -120 (0.6 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +122 (0.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -119 (0.595 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +111 (0.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -114 (0.57 units)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): Gen.G/T1 OVER 3.5 maps + EDG +2.5 @ -131 (1.31 units)
Parlay (2): Gen.G/T1 OVER 3.5 maps + EDG +2.5 @ -131 (1.31 units)
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