April 22nd Recap:
LPL: 1 - 4 (-4.89 units)
LCK: 0 - 3 (-3.9 units)
Live: 1 - 1 (-2.77 units)
Total: 2 - 8 (-11.56 units)
Yikes... I got baited by a bad market after DragonX went down 0-2 and bet into the T1 exact 3-0 instead of waiting for a -1.5 or just hitting the moneyline at whatever absurd number it was. Lesson learned. I was an idiot. More on this ....
DragonX / T1 (Net: -6.67)
(-2.77 live)
I'm going to talk about this one on the podcast tonight for sure but I think a lot of people are going to be really salty about the drafts from DragonX. A few thoughts:
1) You shouldn't be surprised, they've been drafting for early game all season and it's served them well
2) Ziggs and Viktor are ridiculously good bottom especially in the right matchup. So are Syndra, Swain, Zilean, Yasuo, and a number of other picks. "Stick with what got you here" is a dangerous mindset that we often fault teams for. I absolutely loved the picks and I don't think DRX lost this series in draft in fact I thought they had a few edges. They also have the luxury (although it shouldn't be... which I'll discuss tonight) of a bottom lane player that's actually good at mages. (By the way... I know people like Uzi but Deft is the best to ever play that position. Nobody has been as good for as long and as versatile as he's been. Even late in his career he's adapting.)
3) Doran just got bodied in this series by Canna who was honestly a man on a mission today.
4) DragonX made a few boneheaded calls from ahead (particularly that baron). Perhaps it was nerves or something but that had nothing to do with drafts...
5) T1 were absurdly good today. Sometimes when you have two elite teams, one just has it that day or has the right solution to the equation. We sort of saw this in the World Finals last year. FPX were just on fire that day. It doesn't make G2 a bad team.
I'm not really changing my thoughts on DragonX. I would do this bet again without hesitation. This team is good.
A lot of us in the community were on DragonX today. It sucks losing but sometimes a team just balls out on a day. We always want to find justification for shit, especially when we're frustrated. It helps us feel better. Blaming a draft or a team "no-showing" or whatever is something I've done and I see a lot of people doing when the fact is, sometimes it has nothing to do with that. T1 were just a beast of a team today. Consider this series from T1's shoes and suddenly you become a lot more impressed. "Wow they managed to beat the Ziggs curveball" "Whoa they stablized AND THEN SOME" or "Canna is straight dicking down Doran right now" etc because, to me, that's what this series should be about. T1 look incredible. They can do everything and that's terrifying. They are now 5-0 against the other elite teams and after that performance it honestly wouldn't surprise me ot see them as underdogs (just checked, they are +108 / -143).
Team WE / eStar (Net: -4.89)
This series, on the other hand, I'm having my doubts about my handicap on.
Typically when two teams play a similar way it's closer than you think. Ok, makes sense right?
Typically when two teams that play the slightly higher variance, get shit started style that these two play the matchup has a BOATLOAD of variance. Ok, sure I follow you.
Then why the hell was I so bullish eStar in this spot and so against just taking the value and calling it a day? I was bearish on eStar for two-thirds of the season before turning the other cheek after seeing some adaptation and improvement even in losses. There was actually reason to be optimistic. Combine that with the gruesome schedule Team WE had coming into the playoffs and the supposed preparation advantage I'd assume eStar would have. It made at least some sense but I should have read this as "two variance inducing teams" instead of one of these teams is better than the other.
(I'm not calling their style random, just that it's higher variance than other approaches to the game. They're not coin flipping over and over, it's more calculated than that, it's just the easiest way to phrase it without getting more wordy)
For things I didn't see... How could I anticipate Team WE showing that different scaling look? That was cool. That was about it... Generally Team WE were just a better team today. They look really really good. Do I have my doubts about Teacherma? Absolutely but you know what? If this team catches some "lane kingdom" teams I actually think there is a good chance for them to upset. Oh... look who's next on the schedule... more on that on Thursday's post.
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LCK: 0 - 3 (-3.9 units)
Live: 1 - 1 (-2.77 units)
Total: 2 - 8 (-11.56 units)
Yikes... I got baited by a bad market after DragonX went down 0-2 and bet into the T1 exact 3-0 instead of waiting for a -1.5 or just hitting the moneyline at whatever absurd number it was. Lesson learned. I was an idiot. More on this ....
DragonX / T1 (Net: -6.67)
(-2.77 live)
I'm going to talk about this one on the podcast tonight for sure but I think a lot of people are going to be really salty about the drafts from DragonX. A few thoughts:
1) You shouldn't be surprised, they've been drafting for early game all season and it's served them well
2) Ziggs and Viktor are ridiculously good bottom especially in the right matchup. So are Syndra, Swain, Zilean, Yasuo, and a number of other picks. "Stick with what got you here" is a dangerous mindset that we often fault teams for. I absolutely loved the picks and I don't think DRX lost this series in draft in fact I thought they had a few edges. They also have the luxury (although it shouldn't be... which I'll discuss tonight) of a bottom lane player that's actually good at mages. (By the way... I know people like Uzi but Deft is the best to ever play that position. Nobody has been as good for as long and as versatile as he's been. Even late in his career he's adapting.)
3) Doran just got bodied in this series by Canna who was honestly a man on a mission today.
4) DragonX made a few boneheaded calls from ahead (particularly that baron). Perhaps it was nerves or something but that had nothing to do with drafts...
5) T1 were absurdly good today. Sometimes when you have two elite teams, one just has it that day or has the right solution to the equation. We sort of saw this in the World Finals last year. FPX were just on fire that day. It doesn't make G2 a bad team.
I'm not really changing my thoughts on DragonX. I would do this bet again without hesitation. This team is good.
A lot of us in the community were on DragonX today. It sucks losing but sometimes a team just balls out on a day. We always want to find justification for shit, especially when we're frustrated. It helps us feel better. Blaming a draft or a team "no-showing" or whatever is something I've done and I see a lot of people doing when the fact is, sometimes it has nothing to do with that. T1 were just a beast of a team today. Consider this series from T1's shoes and suddenly you become a lot more impressed. "Wow they managed to beat the Ziggs curveball" "Whoa they stablized AND THEN SOME" or "Canna is straight dicking down Doran right now" etc because, to me, that's what this series should be about. T1 look incredible. They can do everything and that's terrifying. They are now 5-0 against the other elite teams and after that performance it honestly wouldn't surprise me ot see them as underdogs (just checked, they are +108 / -143).
Team WE / eStar (Net: -4.89)
This series, on the other hand, I'm having my doubts about my handicap on.
Typically when two teams play a similar way it's closer than you think. Ok, makes sense right?
Typically when two teams that play the slightly higher variance, get shit started style that these two play the matchup has a BOATLOAD of variance. Ok, sure I follow you.
Then why the hell was I so bullish eStar in this spot and so against just taking the value and calling it a day? I was bearish on eStar for two-thirds of the season before turning the other cheek after seeing some adaptation and improvement even in losses. There was actually reason to be optimistic. Combine that with the gruesome schedule Team WE had coming into the playoffs and the supposed preparation advantage I'd assume eStar would have. It made at least some sense but I should have read this as "two variance inducing teams" instead of one of these teams is better than the other.
(I'm not calling their style random, just that it's higher variance than other approaches to the game. They're not coin flipping over and over, it's more calculated than that, it's just the easiest way to phrase it without getting more wordy)
For things I didn't see... How could I anticipate Team WE showing that different scaling look? That was cool. That was about it... Generally Team WE were just a better team today. They look really really good. Do I have my doubts about Teacherma? Absolutely but you know what? If this team catches some "lane kingdom" teams I actually think there is a good chance for them to upset. Oh... look who's next on the schedule... more on that on Thursday's post.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
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LPL (China)
Futures Positions:
JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units
FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
eStar to win Spring: 0.1 units to win 25.0 units
Still looking pretty good. If FunPlus beat whoever wins EDG / RNG I'm more or less locked in for profit in LPL futures this season. If JDG wins I'm in line for some big ones.
Futures Positions:
JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units
FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
Still looking pretty good. If FunPlus beat whoever wins EDG / RNG I'm more or less locked in for profit in LPL futures this season. If JDG wins I'm in line for some big ones.
Playoffs Round 1
Trends:
It's a little bit odd that we're seeing the Aodi/Junjia version of EDG in game one but it could prove to be potent if they have multiple strategies prepared. Aodi and Junjia were actually outstanding relative to expectations and were excellent most of the season. For that reason I don't think it's totally outlandish to start them over the original starters of Jinoo and Jiejie even if I think they're better. It's not like they're starting bad players or anything.
I'll just be straight up about this series because frankly, the numbers don't really mean much because, to me, this boils down to one thing:
Does RNG draft even halfway decently?
They certainly haven't given us a lot of reason to hope so. I've talked about it ad nauseum at this point but RNG are remarkably similar to TSM. They have the players, they have the chops, when they're set up to utilize that then they look like one of the best teams in the league they're just not set up often. It'd be one thing for a team to go on a long losing streak or have a few weeks with weird, experimental drafts but that hasn't been the case.
It took me awhile to realize because they had a good read early in the season but it honestly appears like this coaching staff has absolutely no idea what's what. I factor in a lot about a teams approach in my process. I'm evaluating a team's process during my personal evaluation process. There are certain things, maybe a bad habit, a predictable trend, maybe a nuance that they frequently do that's recognizable to me in much the same way that a musician can identify a technique that another musician is using from using it himself. The challenge becomes whether or not it's player error, lack of preparation (coaching), or a lack of fundamental understanding for whatever it is I'm looking at in the first place. Let's take a look at an example from an RNG game.
This is game two against Dominus on April 15th. I realize this was a particularly egregious example but I wanted to have something that's easy to point out.
Let's play the coaching game. What's wrong and right with this picture/draft?
Go ahead and write it down
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Here's what I see from the perspective of RNG
The Good:
Varus + Elise sets up an immediately gankable bottom lane, also likely a lane that should have priority with Varus being such a strong and versatile blind pick. Pair it with a CC support and you have a lane you can camp while also forcing your opponent to draft with this in mind. Elise, for all the bad things people say about her, is a great selection against Trundle. You're not a target he can steal meaningful stats from with his ult, and you win the 1v1. Elise also enables CC top and mid lanes to have gank pressure completely warping how the opponent drafts. This is, in my opinion, an outstanding opening that's only real weakness is lack of mobility and need for another form of engage or secondary engage somewhere
The Bad:
Everything else... You banned away the best top lane for Elise to gank yourself (before you picked her btw). You have to select your top laner blind knowing that you're probably not taking Ornn because they havea Trundle (can still do it, just not favorable) meaning you're sort of showing that you're going Aatrox before you even do it. Then the big one... you take Kassadin.
So what's the big deal with Kassadin. "Hey Gelati, I thought it's a "counter" to Leblanc?" It is but this bring up a really important and complex concept that I'll shorten to a single sentence. There are lane counters, big picture counters, and 1v1 counters. Kassadin isn't a lane counter to Leblanc. In fact you're one of the easiest lanes to gank in the game for her and you'll never have priority until you have a few items.
Bringing this back to the last pick... Taking Kassadin here doesn't make a lot of sense in the complexion of your composition. Are you a 1-3-1 comp? Sorta yea, that's your best mode. By the time a 1-3-1 comes online Elise is negligable. Are you a scrapping or team fighting comp? Kassadin can be good in these if he's able to bat cleanup but you're looking to spike mid game not late and it's riskier. Ok so... like what are we then? With a counterpicked top, a passive/shoved into own tower mid lane, you're more or less forced to camp bottom as Elise in this situation in order to get ahead. It's the only gankable lane.
How did this game play out? First of all, XLB didn't path toward a gank bottom, he pathed toward top side. Second, DMO's jungler Xiaopeng understood that ganking bottom was the only win condition. Along with Xiye stacking waves against a Kassadin that couldn't do anything, they disrupted XLB repeatedly forcing him to stay away from their strong lane which was bottom.
1) You have one out, it's predictable and the game is more or less already over against a smart team (DMO haven't exactly been that either just for comparison...)
2) XLB not understand that that was the only win condition at all.
To me this is just one of a number of different examples of a fundamental lack of understanding. In the music industry (particularly marching band and other judged music competition) there is a concept called "clarity of intent." If a judge can identify what you're trying to do then it's easier to appreciate the things that you are doing well. In LOL, if you don't have the baseline understanding of what your team composition is supposed to do and your players don't understand what they're supposed to do I have serious questions about how trustworthy you actually are. RNG aren't the only team guilty of this, they're just one of the posterchildren this season.
If you know what you want to be and just suck at it then we can idenfity that you at least have an idea and it's just execution. IF you don't have the conceptual framework or foundation then you're doomed before it even starts. What good is execution if you don't know what you're trying to achieve.
Hopefully you learned something from all of this babble, I'll have to do a stream about it.
Anyway, that was an extremely long-winded way of saying
I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT TRUST RNG
They have the players, they have the chops, but as we've learned time and time again this season more than in any other, if you don't have the foundation, it almost doesn't matter how good your players are (unless you're Invictus apparently... but that's for another time).
EDG have had their issues as well. They have a bad habit of being on the wrong side of the map with crucial objectives up. This has lost them a few games. Other than that they're a fairly solid team. If you consider the language barriers, all the stuff they've gone through this season, and that they have a slightly less gifted roster than the top tier LPL teams, it's rather impressive that EDG have looked as good as they have. EDG's core of Meiko and Scout is rock solid from game-to-game. Their drafts have been solid and sensible and they're able to play a number of styles and strategies well even if none of them are at a particularly elite level. EDG are very good even if they aren't great.
I was hoping we'd have an overrated RNG based on name brand but I still handicap EDG as a small favorite in this series. They have more good on their film than bad and they don't handicap themselves before the game begins nearly as often as RNG does.
RNG could come out and actually make sense in this series but I'm betting against it. Assuming RNG draft at an average, even level for this series I still think EDG would only be small underdogs (+100 or +110). I'm not banking entirely on RNG punting games before the start. EDG are a good team regardless of who is in the lineup. In a best-of-five you need to be versatile and able to adapt both on the rift and in the draft and I simply do not trust RNG to do that based on all the red flags I've seen in their film this season.
I'm expecting each team to punt a game or two in this series due to error or poor draft (especially RNG on the draft note). I think EDG end up on top but I doubt either team 3-0's this series.
Notes on kill total:
D+K per g both avg 24.7
RNG trending: 26.4
(4 matches 10 games had SN and RW but also two duds)
RNG trending KPW: 16.125
RNG trendng KPL: 11.375 (huge variance)
EDG trending: 27.0
EDG trending KPW 19.25
EDG trending KPL: 8.125
Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -400 (4 units)
Moneyline: EDG -109 (0.545 units)
Prop: Exact EDG 3-1 @ +372 (0.25 units)
Prop: Exact EDG 3-2 @ +383 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
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Royal Never Give Up -119 (+1.5 @ -260)
vs
EDward Gaming -119 (-1.5 @ +172)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
EDG: Aodi, Junjia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
vs
EDward Gaming -119 (-1.5 @ +172)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
EDG: Aodi, Junjia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Trends:
It's a little bit odd that we're seeing the Aodi/Junjia version of EDG in game one but it could prove to be potent if they have multiple strategies prepared. Aodi and Junjia were actually outstanding relative to expectations and were excellent most of the season. For that reason I don't think it's totally outlandish to start them over the original starters of Jinoo and Jiejie even if I think they're better. It's not like they're starting bad players or anything.
I'll just be straight up about this series because frankly, the numbers don't really mean much because, to me, this boils down to one thing:
Does RNG draft even halfway decently?
They certainly haven't given us a lot of reason to hope so. I've talked about it ad nauseum at this point but RNG are remarkably similar to TSM. They have the players, they have the chops, when they're set up to utilize that then they look like one of the best teams in the league they're just not set up often. It'd be one thing for a team to go on a long losing streak or have a few weeks with weird, experimental drafts but that hasn't been the case.
It took me awhile to realize because they had a good read early in the season but it honestly appears like this coaching staff has absolutely no idea what's what. I factor in a lot about a teams approach in my process. I'm evaluating a team's process during my personal evaluation process. There are certain things, maybe a bad habit, a predictable trend, maybe a nuance that they frequently do that's recognizable to me in much the same way that a musician can identify a technique that another musician is using from using it himself. The challenge becomes whether or not it's player error, lack of preparation (coaching), or a lack of fundamental understanding for whatever it is I'm looking at in the first place. Let's take a look at an example from an RNG game.
This is game two against Dominus on April 15th. I realize this was a particularly egregious example but I wanted to have something that's easy to point out.
Let's play the coaching game. What's wrong and right with this picture/draft?
Go ahead and write it down
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Here's what I see from the perspective of RNG
The Good:
Varus + Elise sets up an immediately gankable bottom lane, also likely a lane that should have priority with Varus being such a strong and versatile blind pick. Pair it with a CC support and you have a lane you can camp while also forcing your opponent to draft with this in mind. Elise, for all the bad things people say about her, is a great selection against Trundle. You're not a target he can steal meaningful stats from with his ult, and you win the 1v1. Elise also enables CC top and mid lanes to have gank pressure completely warping how the opponent drafts. This is, in my opinion, an outstanding opening that's only real weakness is lack of mobility and need for another form of engage or secondary engage somewhere
The Bad:
Everything else... You banned away the best top lane for Elise to gank yourself (before you picked her btw). You have to select your top laner blind knowing that you're probably not taking Ornn because they havea Trundle (can still do it, just not favorable) meaning you're sort of showing that you're going Aatrox before you even do it. Then the big one... you take Kassadin.
So what's the big deal with Kassadin. "Hey Gelati, I thought it's a "counter" to Leblanc?" It is but this bring up a really important and complex concept that I'll shorten to a single sentence. There are lane counters, big picture counters, and 1v1 counters. Kassadin isn't a lane counter to Leblanc. In fact you're one of the easiest lanes to gank in the game for her and you'll never have priority until you have a few items.
Bringing this back to the last pick... Taking Kassadin here doesn't make a lot of sense in the complexion of your composition. Are you a 1-3-1 comp? Sorta yea, that's your best mode. By the time a 1-3-1 comes online Elise is negligable. Are you a scrapping or team fighting comp? Kassadin can be good in these if he's able to bat cleanup but you're looking to spike mid game not late and it's riskier. Ok so... like what are we then? With a counterpicked top, a passive/shoved into own tower mid lane, you're more or less forced to camp bottom as Elise in this situation in order to get ahead. It's the only gankable lane.
How did this game play out? First of all, XLB didn't path toward a gank bottom, he pathed toward top side. Second, DMO's jungler Xiaopeng understood that ganking bottom was the only win condition. Along with Xiye stacking waves against a Kassadin that couldn't do anything, they disrupted XLB repeatedly forcing him to stay away from their strong lane which was bottom.
1) You have one out, it's predictable and the game is more or less already over against a smart team (DMO haven't exactly been that either just for comparison...)
2) XLB not understand that that was the only win condition at all.
To me this is just one of a number of different examples of a fundamental lack of understanding. In the music industry (particularly marching band and other judged music competition) there is a concept called "clarity of intent." If a judge can identify what you're trying to do then it's easier to appreciate the things that you are doing well. In LOL, if you don't have the baseline understanding of what your team composition is supposed to do and your players don't understand what they're supposed to do I have serious questions about how trustworthy you actually are. RNG aren't the only team guilty of this, they're just one of the posterchildren this season.
If you know what you want to be and just suck at it then we can idenfity that you at least have an idea and it's just execution. IF you don't have the conceptual framework or foundation then you're doomed before it even starts. What good is execution if you don't know what you're trying to achieve.
Hopefully you learned something from all of this babble, I'll have to do a stream about it.
Anyway, that was an extremely long-winded way of saying
I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT TRUST RNG
They have the players, they have the chops, but as we've learned time and time again this season more than in any other, if you don't have the foundation, it almost doesn't matter how good your players are (unless you're Invictus apparently... but that's for another time).
EDG have had their issues as well. They have a bad habit of being on the wrong side of the map with crucial objectives up. This has lost them a few games. Other than that they're a fairly solid team. If you consider the language barriers, all the stuff they've gone through this season, and that they have a slightly less gifted roster than the top tier LPL teams, it's rather impressive that EDG have looked as good as they have. EDG's core of Meiko and Scout is rock solid from game-to-game. Their drafts have been solid and sensible and they're able to play a number of styles and strategies well even if none of them are at a particularly elite level. EDG are very good even if they aren't great.
I was hoping we'd have an overrated RNG based on name brand but I still handicap EDG as a small favorite in this series. They have more good on their film than bad and they don't handicap themselves before the game begins nearly as often as RNG does.
RNG could come out and actually make sense in this series but I'm betting against it. Assuming RNG draft at an average, even level for this series I still think EDG would only be small underdogs (+100 or +110). I'm not banking entirely on RNG punting games before the start. EDG are a good team regardless of who is in the lineup. In a best-of-five you need to be versatile and able to adapt both on the rift and in the draft and I simply do not trust RNG to do that based on all the red flags I've seen in their film this season.
I'm expecting each team to punt a game or two in this series due to error or poor draft (especially RNG on the draft note). I think EDG end up on top but I doubt either team 3-0's this series.
Notes on kill total:
D+K per g both avg 24.7
RNG trending: 26.4
(4 matches 10 games had SN and RW but also two duds)
RNG trending KPW: 16.125
RNG trendng KPL: 11.375 (huge variance)
EDG trending: 27.0
EDG trending KPW 19.25
EDG trending KPL: 8.125
The kill data suggests that this number is pretty close to right on the money based on season totals and KPW/L. I added one match to the trending numbers to offset the meaningless final match these two each played. Without it isn't too much different anyway but just to be thorough. I'm going with the over in this spot I'd expect this series to be a competitive bloodbath or an EDG stomping. EDG tend to score a lot on their own when winning and if you assume RNG wins it should be right near the total on average. I think at least two or three of these games get over the total assuming we get a four game series.
EDG have the second highest first blood rate in the LPL and are a full 14%+ more often than RNG. Again, high variance prop but at 57.1% implied vs their number I'll go to win half a unit per first three maps.
Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -400 (4 units)
Moneyline: EDG -109 (0.545 units)
Prop: Exact EDG 3-1 @ +372 (0.25 units)
Prop: Exact EDG 3-2 @ +383 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
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