Saturday, April 11, 2020

April 12th: LPL, LCK, LEC, LCS




April 11th Recap:



LPL: 7 - 3 (+6.3175 units)


LCK: 5 - 7 (+0.8225 units)


LEC: 9 - 1 (+2.97 units)

LCS: 9 - 16 (+0.354 units)

Live: 1 - 2 (-3.08 units)


Total: 31 - 29 (+7.384 units)




LGD / OMG (Net: +1.675)


eStar/WE (Net: +1.86)


Rogue Warriors/RNG (Net: +2.7825)



APK/Hanwha (Net: -5.5475)


4.08 of this loss was live. It looked like APK had turned the corner with their scaling composition before they punted it in a transition to baron buff.


KT Rolster/Sandbox (Net: +2.29)


Fnatic / MAD Lions (Net: +2.97)


Cloud 9 / Evil Geniuses (Net: +0.354)


We also binked the mini/extra titan on DK because my dumbass was busy to reserve my entry into the big boy yesterday with this pile of a lineup. We'll take those.





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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


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LPL (China)



Week 6 - Day 7


Suning Gaming -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
vs
Dominus eSports +160 (+1.5 @ -207)

Lineups:

SN:  Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
DOM: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark

Trends:

Suning are 2-3 as favorites, 1-4 ATS (one was eStar week 2)
Dominus are 2-9 as underdogs, 4-7 ATS
In weeks 5 and 6, favorites are just 20-15 straight up, 12-23 ATS

Xiye returns to Dominus' lineup while Bin stays put in the top lane.

Suning have lost 5 of their last 6 matches but it's been to OMG, TOP, JDG, Invictus, and Team WE. Their lone win was a 2-0 shellacking of, you guessed it, Victory Five. They took games off of WE, JDG, and TOP. Suning would need a miracle to make playoffs at this point but it starts with a win here if it's going to happen.

Dominus are "surging" with 3 wins in the last 6 over Victory Fiv, LNG, and Rogue Warriors. It looks like they're finally at least functional but looking at those wins it isn't exactly impressive by any means.

Thie is a classic case of overrated/underrated. I think people want to think Dominus has turned it around and combined with the crazy underdog narrative we've been experiencing over the past two weeks, it makes people think Dominus are the play here. I think the opposite. Suning have had a brutal schedule. While they've been rather poor as favorites, this team is still significantly better than their record. I think Suning stomp this matchup. They are better equipped to play in the current metagame and Bin is a weakside player built to minimize losses to Dominus' carry top laner Natural.

People seem to forget just how poor this Dominus team has looked at times even this week. Give me the favorites to sweep. I know this flies in the face of all the underdog data but the overrated/underrated angle as well as the stylistic angle I think Suning should be heavier favorites than this.

I also like the OVER kill totals in this match. Suning have the highest kills per loss in the league. Their trending numbers are obviously lower because of the high level of competition they've been facing. Their kills per win trending is 18.16. I cap this total at ~26.6 when shaded toward Suning winning this match. The LPL has really blown up in kill totals even relative to the LPL in most of the games in the past two weeks. Again, I don't know if it's fatigue or what but the league has been a complete fiesta in the past few weeks.

Taking the plus odds kill spreads as well.

Suning
Season Long AMOV: 10.54
Trending (past six): 8.17

Dominus
Season Long AMOD: 9.0
Trending AMOD: 11.0

Moneyline: Suning -182 (1.82 units)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +155 (1 unit)

Map 1: 

Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -122 (0.305 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ +103 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ +128 (0.2 units)

Map 2:

Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -123 (0.375 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -102 (0.255 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ +104 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ +128 (0.2 units)
(5Dimes)


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EDward Gaming +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -369 (-1.5 @ -113)

Lineups:

EDG: Jinoo, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

Trends:

FPX are 9-3 as favorites, 6-6 ATS
EDG are 2-2 as underdogs, 4-0 ATS

I like FPX going back to GimGoon for this specific matchup. I know they've had some issues incorporating Khan into their team dynamic and I think that it'll ultimately be good but against another carry top laner I'd rather BRING INTHE GOON! I think the Khan hate is getting a bit out of hand but.... GimGoon is a tremendous weakside player and if FPX want to neutralize Jinoo and Jiejie in their second series back this is a good idea especially given FPX and other LPL favorites' struggles recently.


I actually still like EDG to get a game here so we're going to roll out an underdog special. 


Capping the kill total here is interesting. On one hand I think with these rosters reassembled that we might see some more discipline and less of the wild games we've seen recently but the numbers support that this is a stay away spot. This is a bit of a gut capping moment but I think these will be close, tight games as both teams need the wins for various reasons. 



Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -156 (1.56 units)

Moneyline: EDG +203 (0.5 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +553 (0.1 units)

Map 1:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)

Map 2:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
(5Dimes)


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BiliBili Gaming +444 (+1.5 @ +135)
vs
Invictus Gaming -885 (-1.5 @ -193)

Lineups:

BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind

Trends:
Invictus are 9-2 as favorites, 7-4 ATS
BiliBili are 3-4 as underdogs, 6-1 ATS
BiliBili are 5-0 in their past 5 underdog appearances

BiliBili have stolen some games against better teams and have won three of their past five matches.

My gut tells me Invictus smash this matchup and they've been much better than years past about taking care of series cleanly this season but I don't think they're immune to the weird shit that's been happening in the LPL this season either. The thing that concerns me about this underdog is the pace at which Invictus plays. BiliBili are capable of playing uptempo through Meteor but they don't always do it. I want to see them draft for early game and try to tustle with IG early.

Suprise suprise, another underdog special but we're going with half weight on this one since the stylistic matchup is so heavily IG sided.

I'm also taking the OVER kill totals even though I typically like the unders when one team has low kill per loss numbers like BiliBili does. I have to think that BiliBili know they have to battle Invictus or they'll just be run over. I look at OMG as a fair comparison for BLG and those games both ended at 29. Invictus are averaging a ridiculous 32.9 kills+deaths per game. Some of the spike perforamnces are skewing that but honestly, it's not that far off even if you remove a few of them.

Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ +135 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: BiliBili +444 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +810 (0.1 units)

Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 kills @ -111 (0.555 units)

Map 2:

Kill Total: OVER 28.5 kills @ -112 (0.556 units)

(5Dimes)


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LCK (Korea)

Trends:

Favorites are just 13-10 since April 1st
Underdog Spreads (+1.5) are 16-7 in that span
6 of the 13 underdog 2-0's have occured in that span




Week 8 - Day 5


Afreeca Freecs +246 (+1.5 @ -128)
vs
DragonX -369 (-1.5 @ -113)

Trends:
DragonX are 11-2 as favorites, 6-7 ATS
Afreeca are 1-4 as underdogs, 3-2 ATS

Because of the way this is scheduled, DragonX get to play this before knowing if Gen.G have locked up the #1 seed or not. Still they'll be playing to catch T1 for #2 as well. For Afreeca this is just about do-or-die as they trail DAMWON by a match with two left to play and APK nipping at their heels.



We saw a better performance from Afreeca the last time out but it was against Griffin. The nature of this teams playstyle makes them very feast or famine which is scary to bet against but that's what I'm doing here. Until last series, Afreeca looked checked out. They dropped six in a row in spectacularly bad fashion. They don't look like they trust each other, Mystic is obviously going through a lot of personal stuff with his wife (read about it... it sucks). I do like them better with All In, I think Fly has played his last professional games based on his peformance this season. 



This is a tough one to judge because of the motivation factors. DragonX can't be caught by KT so they're comfortably in 3rd place or better but this is more or less must win for Afreeca. I'm taking the DragonX -1.5 even against the motivation factors. Afreeca only know how to play one way and they've botched a number of leads because of their sketchy drafting. Kiin seems to refuse to want to play Ornn after losing both of his two games on it this season. He wants to carry and while it's understandable given his talent, it's also predictable and good teams (and bad teams alike) can punish Afreeca for it. Of note, the economy stats are vastly in DRX's favor as well. They're just an overall superior team in every facet. DRX are actually one of the best economy teams on the planet.


Given the trending AMOV and AMOD data as well as season longs for both these squads the kill spreads are actually in range to qualify here as well.


Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -103 (1.03 units)


Map 1:

Kill Spread: DRX -6.5 kills @ -106 (0.265 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -7.5 kills @ +120 (0.15 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -8.5 kills @ +154 (0.1 units)

Map 2:

Kill Spread: DRX -6.5 kills @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -7.5 kills @ +127 (0.15 units)
Kill Spread: DRX -8.5 kills @ +162 (0.1 units)

(5Dimes)


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Gen.G -769 (-1.5 @ -167)

vs
Hanwha Life eSports +395 (+1.5 @ +118)

Trends:

Gen.G are 13-3 as favorites, 9-7 ATS
Hanwha Life are 4-8 as underdogs, 7-5 ATS

Gen.G can lock the #1 seed with any type of match win here (2-0 or 2-1). Hanwha are playing to avoid relegation. Currently they're in 8th and a win here would put them one ahead of Sandbox (9th) but not entirely out of the woods until either Sandbox lose or they win their next one. Keep in mind this team managed to take a game from APK but otherwise looked rather terrible in that series.


Don't get cute. Gen.G aren't a team that mess around. A lot of heavy favorites are but the Korean teams tend not to be. I'm aware of the numbers working against me here and that I'm going with two favorite sweeps tonight but there is a massive gap between the teams in these matchups. Enough so that it's worth going against the recent trends based on the film.

Gen.G won the first meeting in just under an hour.

This match also qualifies for some kill spreads and actually for the Gen.G over in kills which has rarely been in play this season but the books hung a low number.

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)(Nitrogen)

Map 1:

Kill Total: Gen.G OVER 13.5 kills @ -128 (1.28 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -8.5 kills @ -111 (0.333 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -9.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -10.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -11.5 kills @ +159 (0.1 units)

Map 2:

Kill Total: Gen.G OVER 14.5 kills @ -103 (1.03 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -8.5 kills @ -114 (0.342 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -9.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -10.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -11.5 kills @ +157 (0.1 units)


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LEC (Europe)



Playoffs
Losers Bracket - Round 3


Origen +329 (+1.5 @ +135, +2.5 @ -260)
vs
G2 eSports -535 (-1.5 @ -193, -2.5 @ +172)

Trends:



Will write more on this tomorrow morning but putting picks I'm on so far out there.


Spread: G2 -1.5 maps @ -169 (1.69 units)
Spread: G2 -2.5 maps @ +198 (0.5 units)

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LCS (North America)



Playoffs
Losers Bracket - Round 2

FlyQuest +160 (+1.5 @ -141, +2.5 @ -478)

vs
Team Solo Mid -234 (-1.5 @ -102, -2.5 @ +296)

Trends:


Will write more on this tomorrow morning but putting picks I'm on so far out there.


Moneyline: TSM -208 (4.16 units)
Spread: TSM -1.5 maps @ +104 (1 unit)
Spread: TSM -2.5 maps @ +304 (0.25 units)

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Other Leagues



none yet



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Parlays:

Snap back to Reality Parlay (2):

DRX -1.5 maps + Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +211 (0.5 units)

Favorites Parlay (3):
Suning ML + DRX ML + Gen.G ML @ +121 (1 unit)

Western Favorites Parlay (2):
G2 -1.5 maps + TSM -1.5 maps @ +224 (1 unit)

Round Robin:

Maps 1, 2, and 3, TSM first to 5 kills -127
Maps 1, 2, and 3, G2 first to 5 kills @ -169

9 parlays at 0.2 units each

Net investment 1.8 units to win 5.13 units

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