April 23rd Recap:
LPL: 6 - 4 (+1.25 units)
Live: 1 - 1 (-0.06 units)
Total: +1.19 units
RNG / EDG
I don't always like to say I told you so but....
Honestly EDG didn't even play in any kind of exceptional manner although I'll give credit to Aodi and Junjia who were absolute studs in this series. Good for them. Scout had an off series getting caught out multiple times for no reason. RNG just set their players up for failure and in the one game that they had a draft that I didn't hate, they didn't properly evaluate the opposing team's win conditions and played directly into them.
This isn't rocket science. I'm not some neurosurgeon. Get a damn drafting coach. I loved Mata as a player. I'd honestly call him the second best player of all time (at least there's an argument for it). He's not done a good job as a coach. Period. This situation, much like TSM, is making these players look far worse than they actually are and it's a damn shame that they're going to be crucified for this performance when it wasn't entirely their fault. Is there things they need to recognize? Absolutely but this is like 80% on the coaching staff.
I seriously feel like Captain O'Hagan in SuperTroopers
"Oh Give me the damn soap!"
--------------------------
Live: 1 - 1 (-0.06 units)
Total: +1.19 units
RNG / EDG
I don't always like to say I told you so but....
Honestly EDG didn't even play in any kind of exceptional manner although I'll give credit to Aodi and Junjia who were absolute studs in this series. Good for them. Scout had an off series getting caught out multiple times for no reason. RNG just set their players up for failure and in the one game that they had a draft that I didn't hate, they didn't properly evaluate the opposing team's win conditions and played directly into them.
This isn't rocket science. I'm not some neurosurgeon. Get a damn drafting coach. I loved Mata as a player. I'd honestly call him the second best player of all time (at least there's an argument for it). He's not done a good job as a coach. Period. This situation, much like TSM, is making these players look far worse than they actually are and it's a damn shame that they're going to be crucified for this performance when it wasn't entirely their fault. Is there things they need to recognize? Absolutely but this is like 80% on the coaching staff.
I seriously feel like Captain O'Hagan in SuperTroopers
"Oh Give me the damn soap!"
--------------------------
The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top or you can DM me on Twitter if you prefer crypto or other means.
CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
-------------------------
(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
------------------------
LPL (China)
Futures Positions:
JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units
FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
eStar to win Spring: 0.1 units to win 25.0 units
Futures Positions:
JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units
FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
Playoffs Round 2
Trends:
TOP are 8-4 as favorites, 4-8 ATS
TOP are 3-2, 1-4 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
Team WE are 6-5 as underdogs, 7-4 ATS
Team WE are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
I've been taking a very rock-paper-scissors approach to handicapping the LPL this split. One type of team tends to beat another type of team, etc. Team WE have thrived on beating up lane kingdom/resource-focused teams this season by forcing them out of their comfort zone.
After all, "What good is your superior laning if you are unable to lane." -The Matix/Gelati circa April 2020 actually maybe
Team WE have been doing this against all the different tiers of the lane kingdom teams too. They've taken games off of Invictus, LNG (ok maybe this is a bad thing cuz they lost), TOP (won 2-1), and OMG (won 2-0). They're not quite as good as FunPlus Phoenix at this but honestly they remind me a lot of that team last year.
That said, TOP just beat FPX and I think they're the original Coca Cola of this style while Team WE are more like Diet Coke. Hey, at least they aren't Diet Shasta or the store general label!
What I'm getting at is that I think TOP probably win this series but I absolutely think Team WE are going to get a game. This team is running so hot right now and this approach to the game allows them to snowball a game seemingly out of nowhere. It's tough to sweep a team that plays they way WE do, they're almost certainly going to take a game or two. TOP may have shown some adaptation to playing with tempo recently but over the course of the season they prefer to have a long laning phase. They're going to have to get outside their comfort zone in this matchup.
I'm also not ruling out the fact that TOP, while they've looked impressive at times, could just have an off day. JackeyLove just got here, the supports have been splitting time with the top trio, it's very possible they aren't quite as dialed in as other teams that have been together all split.
Another note. One of the best ways to deal with ADC's that play the way JackeyLove has historically is to just camp them and there isn't really a better way to do that than with a mid laner like Teacherma and his Aurelion Sol, Nocturne, Twisted Fate, Pantheon, etc. All of these champions are designed to punish overextension or to just straight up dive. I could see TOP being drawn to the allure of 200 years of balance experience (Aphelios) and Team WE just send JKL to the nexus 5 times in the first 15 minutes in a game. It's really not that difficult a situation for me to imagine happening especially considering TOP tend to want to prolong lane phase as much as possible.
All of this is to say that I'm going to have a very light touch here but I think Team WE will be more competitive than almost everyone thinks in this series. TOP haven't exactly been the most disciplined team either so I could see this series getting wonky way more often than the odds imply.
Even looking at the numbers, these teams aren't nearly as far apart as you'd think. Team WE's heavy reliance on kills somewhat skews their economic numbers but TOP's 1794 gold per minute isn't much further ahead. Their 31.3 cs per minute is actually extremely low for a team that plays the way they want to.
I really just think people are overexcited for TOP just a bit. It's awesome that they're looking like what thought they'd be before the season and have added a big free agent at a position of need but it feels like there's a bit too much overreaction on both sides. People want to fade WE, understandably but I also think people are overeager to back a TOP team that we have a small sample size from this iteration for. Don't crown them kings of the LPL yet is all.
It's going to be a Diet Underdog Special. TOP win but they shouldn't be favored by this much, plain and simple.
The kill total of 28.5 is about right from every measure I have. I generated more outcomes under it but not by a meaningful enough margin to make any plays. I won't be making any kill spread plays either since WE tend to lose in spectacular fashion when they do lose with an extremely high AMOD of 13.26.
Our first blood plays on the best first blood team EDG missed today even though they won the series 3-1 although to be fair, we should have hit in game two, XLB basically traded it barely getting FB before dying himself. Coincidentally and unsurprisingly Team WE are 2nd in first blood rate this season which makes a lot of sense given that they want to get shit started ASAP. We'll be playing the underdog first blood in this spot.
Spread: Team WE +2.5 maps @ -238 (2.38 units) (5Dimes)
Spread: Team WE +1.5 maps @ +147 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Team WE +331 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
Map 1:
Prop: WE first blood @ +107 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Prop: WE first blood @ +103 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Prop: WE first blood @ +107 (0.5 units)
(5Dimes)
------------------------
Team WE +331 (+1.5 @ +135, +2.5 @ -260)
vs
TOP eSports -549 (-1.5 @ -199, -2.5 @ +172)
Lineups:
WE:
TOP:
vs
TOP eSports -549 (-1.5 @ -199, -2.5 @ +172)
Lineups:
WE:
TOP:
Trends:
TOP are 8-4 as favorites, 4-8 ATS
TOP are 3-2, 1-4 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
Team WE are 6-5 as underdogs, 7-4 ATS
Team WE are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
I've been taking a very rock-paper-scissors approach to handicapping the LPL this split. One type of team tends to beat another type of team, etc. Team WE have thrived on beating up lane kingdom/resource-focused teams this season by forcing them out of their comfort zone.
After all, "What good is your superior laning if you are unable to lane." -The Matix/Gelati circa April 2020 actually maybe
Team WE have been doing this against all the different tiers of the lane kingdom teams too. They've taken games off of Invictus, LNG (ok maybe this is a bad thing cuz they lost), TOP (won 2-1), and OMG (won 2-0). They're not quite as good as FunPlus Phoenix at this but honestly they remind me a lot of that team last year.
That said, TOP just beat FPX and I think they're the original Coca Cola of this style while Team WE are more like Diet Coke. Hey, at least they aren't Diet Shasta or the store general label!
What I'm getting at is that I think TOP probably win this series but I absolutely think Team WE are going to get a game. This team is running so hot right now and this approach to the game allows them to snowball a game seemingly out of nowhere. It's tough to sweep a team that plays they way WE do, they're almost certainly going to take a game or two. TOP may have shown some adaptation to playing with tempo recently but over the course of the season they prefer to have a long laning phase. They're going to have to get outside their comfort zone in this matchup.
I'm also not ruling out the fact that TOP, while they've looked impressive at times, could just have an off day. JackeyLove just got here, the supports have been splitting time with the top trio, it's very possible they aren't quite as dialed in as other teams that have been together all split.
Another note. One of the best ways to deal with ADC's that play the way JackeyLove has historically is to just camp them and there isn't really a better way to do that than with a mid laner like Teacherma and his Aurelion Sol, Nocturne, Twisted Fate, Pantheon, etc. All of these champions are designed to punish overextension or to just straight up dive. I could see TOP being drawn to the allure of 200 years of balance experience (Aphelios) and Team WE just send JKL to the nexus 5 times in the first 15 minutes in a game. It's really not that difficult a situation for me to imagine happening especially considering TOP tend to want to prolong lane phase as much as possible.
All of this is to say that I'm going to have a very light touch here but I think Team WE will be more competitive than almost everyone thinks in this series. TOP haven't exactly been the most disciplined team either so I could see this series getting wonky way more often than the odds imply.
Even looking at the numbers, these teams aren't nearly as far apart as you'd think. Team WE's heavy reliance on kills somewhat skews their economic numbers but TOP's 1794 gold per minute isn't much further ahead. Their 31.3 cs per minute is actually extremely low for a team that plays the way they want to.
I really just think people are overexcited for TOP just a bit. It's awesome that they're looking like what thought they'd be before the season and have added a big free agent at a position of need but it feels like there's a bit too much overreaction on both sides. People want to fade WE, understandably but I also think people are overeager to back a TOP team that we have a small sample size from this iteration for. Don't crown them kings of the LPL yet is all.
It's going to be a Diet Underdog Special. TOP win but they shouldn't be favored by this much, plain and simple.
The kill total of 28.5 is about right from every measure I have. I generated more outcomes under it but not by a meaningful enough margin to make any plays. I won't be making any kill spread plays either since WE tend to lose in spectacular fashion when they do lose with an extremely high AMOD of 13.26.
Our first blood plays on the best first blood team EDG missed today even though they won the series 3-1 although to be fair, we should have hit in game two, XLB basically traded it barely getting FB before dying himself. Coincidentally and unsurprisingly Team WE are 2nd in first blood rate this season which makes a lot of sense given that they want to get shit started ASAP. We'll be playing the underdog first blood in this spot.
Spread: Team WE +2.5 maps @ -238 (2.38 units) (5Dimes)
Spread: Team WE +1.5 maps @ +147 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Team WE +331 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
Map 1:
Prop: WE first blood @ +107 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Prop: WE first blood @ +103 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Prop: WE first blood @ +107 (0.5 units)
(5Dimes)
------------------------
Other Leagues
none yet
--------------------
Parlays:
Great job, This content is very very great content, I got really good information from this content and it helps me a lot, I hope it can help many people like me.
ReplyDeletenfl odds and predictions
With SportsSwaps predict the future from a variety of future NFL propositions. Who will win the super bowl next year? Make a prediction. Make a prediction. There is no shortage of things to predict on SportsSwaps!