Tuesday, April 21, 2020

April 22nd: LCK and LPL Playoffs



April 20th Recap:


LPL: 8 - 2 (+5.149 units)

LCK: 1 - 2 (-0.5 units)


Total: 9 - 4 (+4.649 units)



SCREW POWER OUTAGES!

DragonX / DAMWON (Net: -0.5)

DragonX took a two game lead and decided that they wanted to tempt fate by not banning Nuguri's Jayce or having a better pick into it than Ornn. Ornn is considered a counter but we've seen time and time again that Nuguri has one of the few Jayce's that will play around it and make it work. After dropping game three to a hard carry performance by Nuguri DragonX should have just shut it down but they tempted fate yet again and Nuguri carried on it YET AGAIN blowing up our spread bet. This series was looking like the 3-0 or 3-1 we thought it would be but instead we had to sweat it out in a close game five.

Props to DAMWON for the good showing here though. This team showed more poise than they did all year and really elevated in the spot in both of their playoff series. They were outclassed at the end of the day but it was impressive at least compared to my expectations.

LGD / Rogue Warriors (Net: +1.24)

Meaningless game underdogs FTW

OMG / Team WE (Net: +1.5)

We cashed this but man oh man to get nearly perfect game'd by Team WE of all people is a pretty brutal way to go out. This played out almost like I expected it to with Team WE's skirmish heavy, force your hand style working wonders for them against OMG's old school, insistance on laning forever. It wasn't just that though. Really this came down to a few highlight plays that really blew these games open for each side. I thought H4cker looked lost in this series and OMG didn't really have a teamwide direction which has been a problem for them this season. They have the players they just don't have a consistent plan. They play too much like solo queue and not like a team and that bit them in the ass today as Team WE's coordination was way better around neutral objectives.

TOP / FunPlus (Net: +2.409)

Isn't it fitting to end the regular season with an underdog special outright win? Game one of this series was hilarious. Imagine two UFC fighters got into a bar fight instead of inside the octagon. 

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


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LCK (Korea)
Futures Positions:

T1 to win Spring: 2 units to win 17.6 units
DragonX to win Spring: 2 units to win 16.2 units

Sitting pretty here as I should probably be able to get Gen.G at a short favorite type of number regardless of which of these teams they face for a nice lock on profits.



Playoffs - Round 3


DragonX +178 (+1.5 @ -128, +2.5 @ -426)
vs
T1 -247 (-1.5 @ -112, -2.5 @ +271)

Trends:

Did a more detailed writeup on this one over at The Action Network

Today ended up outlandishly busy for me so gotta just stick to that for now.

Spread: DRX +1.5 maps @ -120 (2.4 units)
Moneyline: DRX +206 (1 unit)
Spread: DRX -1.5 maps @ +390 (0.5 units)

(5Dimes)

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LPL (China)


Futures Positions:

JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units

FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
eStar to win Spring: 0.1 units to win 25.0 units

Also sitting reasonably pretty in the LPL. JDG looks like a legitimate opportunity and our long shot at eStar would be a hilarious ticket to cash, probably my best odds ever. 



Playoffs Round 1


Team WE +175 (+1.5 @ -128, +2.5 @ -422)
vs
eStar Gaming -263 (-1.5 @ -112, -2.5 @ +271)


Lineups:

WE: 
eStar: 

Trends:


Team WE vs "lane kingdom" teams 2-3 (6-8)
(OMG, Invictus, TOP,  RNG, LNG)

Team WE vs other "power of friendship" teams: 3-5 (8-12)
(EDG, eStar, LGD, BiliBili, Rogue Warriors, FPX, Vici, JDG)

Team WE vs "weird" and/or bad teams: 3-0 (6-1)
(Dominus, Victory Five, Suning)

Did more detailed writeups on both of these for The Action Network

It'd be a little surprising but not outlandish to see a sweep here. If you want the extra 35 cents in case they do sweep vs the two 3-1 and 3-2 exact props then take the eStar spread, if you want to gamble for higher upside do a split stake on the two exact props. A 3-1 would net you +1.5u while a 3-2 win would net you +2.33u (assuming 1u per wager). The -1.5 maps is where I'll be.

Moneyline: eStar -244 (2.44 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ -108 (1.08 units)

Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
(5Dimes)
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Other Leagues



none yet



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Parlays:

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