April 8th Recap:
LPL: (-6.343 units)
LCK: (-4.651 units)
LCS:
Live:
Total:
Vici/Rogue Warriors (Net: -0.473)
OMG/Suning (Net: -3.87)
TOP/WE (Net: -2.0)
Griffin/DAMWON (Net: -5.521)
I went on a brief tirade about DAMWON's no show on the podcast this week... Legitimately the biggest letdown of the season and that includes Liquid's entire season. I wanted to write like a WalterFootball style piece where I just tee-off on the ineptitude of this squad but I didn't have time.... just know that I was preparing thoughts for it almost all day.
Gen.G/APK (Net: -1.13)
TSM/100 Thieves (Net: +0.75)
Overall super weird day with DAMWON being a complete no-show and Vici punting with such a poor fundamental approach at the end of game three. Really bad day for us. TSM/100 Thieves was a surprisingly entertaining series to watch.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 6 - Day 4
Trends:
RNG have dropped just four single games to teams that I'd rate as mediocre. They haven't lost a game to a bad team.
LGD have been somewhat better recently with a 2-1 over Team WE and a game taken against EDG. Their all-in sinning (tempo) style is going to allow them to steal games if Peanut can get the ball rolling but this team has also lost with leads on a number of occasions. It makes them a pretty good bet to take a game against a lot of teams.
Economically these two teams are surprisingly similar in appearance but LGD have a few outlier blowout wins that are boosting their numbers. They're still a net negative team albeit very efficient from a damage/gold perspective. LGD are also noticably bad on red side with only a single game win there this season which is bizarre in the LPL.
That said, I think the way RNG play the game, a more disciplined and controlled approach focused on minimizing losses when they happen, is a challenge for teams that tend to go all in on a snowball like LGD. RNG have also shown the ability to scrap early when they want to against teams like Invictus and eStar.
LGD have a better chance at taking a game off of Invictus, eStar, or TOP, teams that prefer to fight a lot and risk bigger losses. RNG are not that type of team.
This is a weird matchup from a totals perspective. LGD have been really bloody in losses recently but RNG prefer to play in games that have lower kill totals if they can help it, just based on their style. To me there are two ways this shakes out. RNG either try to match fire with fire and just play to combat LGD's early game or they try to weather the storm and minimize losses before choking LGD out. If you think the latter, the under is appealing, the former the over looks appealing.
LGD's game script is easy to predict but the result of that script has a wide range of possible outcomes. For this reason I'm sticking with a clean RNG 2-0 only.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -152 (1.52 units)
(5Dimes)
----
RNG -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
vs
LGD Gaming +395 (+1.5 @ +118)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
vs
LGD Gaming +395 (+1.5 @ +118)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
Trends:
RNG have dropped just four single games to teams that I'd rate as mediocre. They haven't lost a game to a bad team.
LGD have been somewhat better recently with a 2-1 over Team WE and a game taken against EDG. Their all-in sinning (tempo) style is going to allow them to steal games if Peanut can get the ball rolling but this team has also lost with leads on a number of occasions. It makes them a pretty good bet to take a game against a lot of teams.
Economically these two teams are surprisingly similar in appearance but LGD have a few outlier blowout wins that are boosting their numbers. They're still a net negative team albeit very efficient from a damage/gold perspective. LGD are also noticably bad on red side with only a single game win there this season which is bizarre in the LPL.
That said, I think the way RNG play the game, a more disciplined and controlled approach focused on minimizing losses when they happen, is a challenge for teams that tend to go all in on a snowball like LGD. RNG have also shown the ability to scrap early when they want to against teams like Invictus and eStar.
LGD have a better chance at taking a game off of Invictus, eStar, or TOP, teams that prefer to fight a lot and risk bigger losses. RNG are not that type of team.
This is a weird matchup from a totals perspective. LGD have been really bloody in losses recently but RNG prefer to play in games that have lower kill totals if they can help it, just based on their style. To me there are two ways this shakes out. RNG either try to match fire with fire and just play to combat LGD's early game or they try to weather the storm and minimize losses before choking LGD out. If you think the latter, the under is appealing, the former the over looks appealing.
LGD's game script is easy to predict but the result of that script has a wide range of possible outcomes. For this reason I'm sticking with a clean RNG 2-0 only.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -152 (1.52 units)
(5Dimes)
----
EDward Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
vs
LNG eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
Lineups:
EDG: Jinoo, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
Trends:
EDG finally assemble their projected roster coming into the season after health concerns sidelined Jiejie and forced an emergency non-domestic sub which forced Jinoo out of the lineup.
Weirdly, EDG weathered the storm quite well in their absence. On one hand, it's difficult to tell if there will be rust, on the other hand EDG wouldn't be putting them into the lineup again if they didn't think it was the right course of action as they still haven't locked up a playoff position.
I normally like to fade the sub hype in this situation but I think both are fairly massive upgrades and that this team has played together before so the chemistry shouldn't be completely lacking like with other situations similar to this. In other words I think there will be some rust but not as much as normal.
LNG have had a fairly challenging schedule with FPX, JDG, Vici, eStar, and Suning but they also lost 0-2 to Dominus and haven't taken a game since March 30th. Since the Dominus loss, Asura has been riding the bench.
It seems to me like LNG are looking forward to the Summer season and getting reps for Light. In Spring of 2019, when LNG (formerly Snake) were in a similar situation, mathematically unlikely to make playoffs, they ended up 2-2 in their final four matches. At the time that was spread over four weeks. This is mostly the same lineup.
This LNG team has a lot of issues but they're also talented on the top half of the map which is where EDG are changing things up. I think EDG likely win this series 2-0 but the combination of potential rust in the first game back and LNG having some talent where it matters make me want to do half the weight on this wager that I'd normally do.
EDG have won all but a single game by at least 5 kills this season and have one of the highest AMOV scores at 11.825. Other than the weird loss to FPX where they had a kill lead, LNG have lost all but one game by at least 6 kills and five of their last six by double digits. They have one of the highest AMOD scores at 10.26.
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +108 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: EDG -5.5 kills @ -130 (0.26 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -109 (0.218 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -7.5 kills @ +108 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +131 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: EDG -5.5 kills @ -133 (0.266 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -114 (0.228 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -7.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +126 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -9.5 kills @ +151 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
----
vs
LNG eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
Lineups:
EDG: Jinoo, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
Trends:
EDG finally assemble their projected roster coming into the season after health concerns sidelined Jiejie and forced an emergency non-domestic sub which forced Jinoo out of the lineup.
Weirdly, EDG weathered the storm quite well in their absence. On one hand, it's difficult to tell if there will be rust, on the other hand EDG wouldn't be putting them into the lineup again if they didn't think it was the right course of action as they still haven't locked up a playoff position.
I normally like to fade the sub hype in this situation but I think both are fairly massive upgrades and that this team has played together before so the chemistry shouldn't be completely lacking like with other situations similar to this. In other words I think there will be some rust but not as much as normal.
LNG have had a fairly challenging schedule with FPX, JDG, Vici, eStar, and Suning but they also lost 0-2 to Dominus and haven't taken a game since March 30th. Since the Dominus loss, Asura has been riding the bench.
It seems to me like LNG are looking forward to the Summer season and getting reps for Light. In Spring of 2019, when LNG (formerly Snake) were in a similar situation, mathematically unlikely to make playoffs, they ended up 2-2 in their final four matches. At the time that was spread over four weeks. This is mostly the same lineup.
This LNG team has a lot of issues but they're also talented on the top half of the map which is where EDG are changing things up. I think EDG likely win this series 2-0 but the combination of potential rust in the first game back and LNG having some talent where it matters make me want to do half the weight on this wager that I'd normally do.
EDG have won all but a single game by at least 5 kills this season and have one of the highest AMOV scores at 11.825. Other than the weird loss to FPX where they had a kill lead, LNG have lost all but one game by at least 6 kills and five of their last six by double digits. They have one of the highest AMOD scores at 10.26.
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +108 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: EDG -5.5 kills @ -130 (0.26 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -109 (0.218 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -7.5 kills @ +108 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +131 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: EDG -5.5 kills @ -133 (0.266 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -6.5 kills @ -114 (0.228 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -7.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -8.5 kills @ +126 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EDG -9.5 kills @ +151 (0.1 units)
----
Invictus -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
vs
JD Gaming +197 (+1.5 @ -167)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
vs
JD Gaming +197 (+1.5 @ -167)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
Trends:
This is similar to the RNG pick against Invictus the other day. JDG are also an elite team and Invictus play a high variance style despite their win-loss this season. These teams also have history against each other. Invictus are deserving favorites but not by this much.
------------------------
This is similar to the RNG pick against Invictus the other day. JDG are also an elite team and Invictus play a high variance style despite their win-loss this season. These teams also have history against each other. Invictus are deserving favorites but not by this much.
Spread: JDG +1.5 maps @ -169 (2.535 units)
Moneyline: JDG +203 (1 unit)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +458 (0.5 units)
(5Dimes)
Moneyline: JDG +203 (1 unit)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +458 (0.5 units)
(5Dimes)
------------------------
LCK (Korea)
Week 8 - Day 2
Sandbox +444 (+1.5 @ +135)
vs
T1 -885 (-1.5 @ -193)
Trends:
T1 are in a bit of a unique situation with three series remaining. Unless Gen.G drop some sloppy games to their remaining schedule of KT Rolster and Hanwha Life it will be challenging to make up the +4 game differential advantage Gen.G has to move into a tie for first. At the same time, DragonX are right on their tails. What's interesting about this is whether or not we think T1 will continue to experiement or limit test like they did in their last match against DAMWON leaving Senna up to see if they could beat it. Personally I don't think they will and that DragonX being right on their heels will make them play this out to their fullest extent.
Sandbox have looked a little bit better with Summit back in the lineup but a 2-1 victory over Hanwha Life isn't exactly highlight reel worthy. Still, Summit is one of the few top laners on the planet that can single-handedly take over a game so you can never rule that out.
This is probably a T1 2-0 but I'm going to diversify my exposure over a few markets.
My projections have this total capped at around 20.75 based on season-long rates but 20.16 trending based on recent results. I don't know if people remember the last series these two teams played but T1 had a literal 5 kill perfect game in game one where Summit's top lane Soraka got punished super hard. A similar result happened in game two. I think this most recent version of Sandbox is slightly better than that performance but T1 have also looked lights out for the most part recently.
While it's slightly juiced up to imply a total of 19.0, we're going to take the over. I have to think Sandbox put up more of a fight than they did last time and even with T1 in full business mode this should be a slightly more competitive series. Sandbox are playing to avoid relegations, they'll pull out as many stops to defeat the titans as possible. I also think that over the course of the season, the bad teams tend to improve more than people expect unless they mail it in.
Weirdly, T1 have been significantly bloodier in their second games. I don't know if it's that they loosen up a bit or that their opponents tend to get desperate but this is one of the few spots where I don't mind paying much more juice against the game two total. T1 are also closing with ridiculous speed. Most of their wins have been under the 31:00 mark.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -182 (1.82 units)
Map 1:
vs
T1 -885 (-1.5 @ -193)
Trends:
T1 are in a bit of a unique situation with three series remaining. Unless Gen.G drop some sloppy games to their remaining schedule of KT Rolster and Hanwha Life it will be challenging to make up the +4 game differential advantage Gen.G has to move into a tie for first. At the same time, DragonX are right on their tails. What's interesting about this is whether or not we think T1 will continue to experiement or limit test like they did in their last match against DAMWON leaving Senna up to see if they could beat it. Personally I don't think they will and that DragonX being right on their heels will make them play this out to their fullest extent.
Sandbox have looked a little bit better with Summit back in the lineup but a 2-1 victory over Hanwha Life isn't exactly highlight reel worthy. Still, Summit is one of the few top laners on the planet that can single-handedly take over a game so you can never rule that out.
This is probably a T1 2-0 but I'm going to diversify my exposure over a few markets.
My projections have this total capped at around 20.75 based on season-long rates but 20.16 trending based on recent results. I don't know if people remember the last series these two teams played but T1 had a literal 5 kill perfect game in game one where Summit's top lane Soraka got punished super hard. A similar result happened in game two. I think this most recent version of Sandbox is slightly better than that performance but T1 have also looked lights out for the most part recently.
While it's slightly juiced up to imply a total of 19.0, we're going to take the over. I have to think Sandbox put up more of a fight than they did last time and even with T1 in full business mode this should be a slightly more competitive series. Sandbox are playing to avoid relegations, they'll pull out as many stops to defeat the titans as possible. I also think that over the course of the season, the bad teams tend to improve more than people expect unless they mail it in.
Weirdly, T1 have been significantly bloodier in their second games. I don't know if it's that they loosen up a bit or that their opponents tend to get desperate but this is one of the few spots where I don't mind paying much more juice against the game two total. T1 are also closing with ridiculous speed. Most of their wins have been under the 31:00 mark.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -182 (1.82 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -128 (0.64 units)
Kill Total: OVER 19.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
----
Afreeca Freecs -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
Griffin -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
Trends:
This match is annoying... Somehow, both teams are playing to avoid relegations, if you told me that a few weeks ago I would have had to be admitted.
Griffin beat DAMWON this morning but I'm giving zero credit for it because DAMWON no-showed harder than anyone I've seen recently. Afreeca also look completely checked out but they also looked decent against T1 prior.
Stylistically this is the "Greatly Reluctant Fighters" vs the Afreeca "please fight me with my team comp" battle. Afreeca are going to draft for skirmishes and to snowball and Griffin will likely just allow it to happen it's just a matter of how hard we think Afreeca can snowball.
Personally, I don't like ceding objectives in the current metagame. I also think that if Griffin start Sword again that Kiin is going to lay some kind of ridiculous beatdown. Afreeca might have punted away their season and hopes at playoffs but with an actual chance at having to play in the relegation tournament looming I have to think they'll get up for this match. Perhaps that's naive or that they won't escape from this funk but if you told me you'd get Afreeca at this number against Griffin even two weeks ago I would have called you insane.
Afreeca also won the first meeting between these two and both games went to the extreme late game. If they're able to snowball I think Griffin's unwillingness to fight could be used against them. This is a poor stylistic matchup for Griffin.
Hold your nose and take Afreeca. If they want any chance at making playoffs this is a must win and they'll want to win it to avoid having to play relegations anyway.
Griffin tend to be a lower kill team as evidenced by their nickname but in losses the'yre surprisingly above league average in kills per loss. Trending recently, however that hasn't been the case as they have a 4.25 kill per loss rate in their past eight losses.
Projections put this total at a flat 19.0 but I think this match will get scrappy, particularly if Afreeca win. In Afreeca's past five wins, and they were a long time ago mind you, there was an average of 24.5 kills in the game. I could see this going well over the implied total.
-------------------------
Kill Total: OVER 19.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -128 (0.64 units)
Kill Total: OVER 19.5 @ -122(0.305 units)
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -103 (0.258 units)
(5Dimes)
Kill Total: OVER 19.5 @ -122(0.305 units)
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -103 (0.258 units)
(5Dimes)
----
Afreeca Freecs -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
Griffin -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
Trends:
This match is annoying... Somehow, both teams are playing to avoid relegations, if you told me that a few weeks ago I would have had to be admitted.
Griffin beat DAMWON this morning but I'm giving zero credit for it because DAMWON no-showed harder than anyone I've seen recently. Afreeca also look completely checked out but they also looked decent against T1 prior.
Stylistically this is the "Greatly Reluctant Fighters" vs the Afreeca "please fight me with my team comp" battle. Afreeca are going to draft for skirmishes and to snowball and Griffin will likely just allow it to happen it's just a matter of how hard we think Afreeca can snowball.
Personally, I don't like ceding objectives in the current metagame. I also think that if Griffin start Sword again that Kiin is going to lay some kind of ridiculous beatdown. Afreeca might have punted away their season and hopes at playoffs but with an actual chance at having to play in the relegation tournament looming I have to think they'll get up for this match. Perhaps that's naive or that they won't escape from this funk but if you told me you'd get Afreeca at this number against Griffin even two weeks ago I would have called you insane.
Afreeca also won the first meeting between these two and both games went to the extreme late game. If they're able to snowball I think Griffin's unwillingness to fight could be used against them. This is a poor stylistic matchup for Griffin.
Hold your nose and take Afreeca. If they want any chance at making playoffs this is a must win and they'll want to win it to avoid having to play relegations anyway.
Griffin tend to be a lower kill team as evidenced by their nickname but in losses the'yre surprisingly above league average in kills per loss. Trending recently, however that hasn't been the case as they have a 4.25 kill per loss rate in their past eight losses.
Projections put this total at a flat 19.0 but I think this match will get scrappy, particularly if Afreeca win. In Afreeca's past five wins, and they were a long time ago mind you, there was an average of 24.5 kills in the game. I could see this going well over the implied total.
Moneyline: Afreeca -127 (1.27 units)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +239 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -118 (0.295 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -3.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -4.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -123 (0.308 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ -104 (0.26 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +113 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +137 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -2.5 kills @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -3.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -4.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +239 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -118 (0.295 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -3.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -4.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -123 (0.308 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ -104 (0.26 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +113 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +137 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -2.5 kills @ +101 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -3.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: AF -4.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
Other Leagues
none yet
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