April 15th Recap:
LPL: 12 - 10 (+1.0585 units)
LCK: 13 - 15 (+1.951 units)
Parlays: 2 - 0 (+2.42 units)
Live: 2 - 1 (-1.075 units)
Total: +4.3545 units
OMG / EDG (Net: +2.125)
RNG / Dominus (Net: +0.8525)
+2.115 of this was live DOM map 2
WE / Invictus (Net: +0.196)
KT / Gen.G (Net: +0.926)
Afreeca / T1 (Net: +0.692)
Sandbox / Damwon (Net: -2.857)
I was actually net +0.333 on this one before DWG punted a huge draft win with their boneheaded, greedy decision making. DON'T TRUST DUMB TEAMS TO WIN A DRAFT!
All told not a bad day considering the RNG upset and -3.19 unit live on DWG.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 4
Trends:
It's V5....
So the fact that BiliBili is -2300 against anybody is absurd BUT... it's the one and only Victory Five we're talking about here. Honestly would hope to get better odds in this situation.
Victory Five played, in my opinion, their best series of the season against TOP in JackeyLove's return. They still kinda got smoked.
BiliBili aren't technically eliminated yet but a lot depends on the exact results of Team WE, Rogue Warriors, and OMG's match. Team WE and OMG also play on the last day of the season. What BiliBili need to happen is Team WE to lose their next two matches by at least 3 games to move their differential to -5 and then 2-0 OMG on the final day to move to a 7-9 with a -3 game differential. They need that AND Rogue Warriors AND Vici to lose in different combinations as well. So it's not impossible but... yea you get the idea.
Still I think BiliBili are going to be game for this match. They've looked a lot better recently and seem to have settled on the identity that they're an uptempo team now and playing through Meteor which is awesome and what they should have been doing the whole time. Everyone has been playing really well. I also think that because they play the first match and don't get to see any of these "needed" results before they play means they won't be pre-defeated or pre-eliminated before this match. Schedule is a blessing in disguise for them.
Victory Five have lost all but 2 of their 28 losses by at least 7 kills and they have an AMOD of 12.32 for the season (13.33 trending past six) which is absurd considering their ... *clears throat* large and exquisite sample size of losses. BLG have a slightly below average AMOV of 10.38 (9.16 trending).
BiliBili are averaging 16.72 kills per win this season (16.16 trending). Their spike performances were 27, 20, 21, 18, and 13. The other 13 of their 18 (72.2%) wins were with 17 or fewer kills. Our most recent sample size of a "bad" team for BiliBili was the surging LGD and Dominus. BLG went under 17 in three out of four of those wins. The -110 17.5 team total is a nice value in this spot.
Given BLG's combined kills+deaths per game of 23.9 and the fact that we're taking the under it's going to make the V5 kill spreads appealing. I project this series to be roughly 16-7 per game but with a high degree of variance.
The risk with all of this is that BiliBili could use this as a "style fest" in their final game of the season. A lot of teams use their match against V5 to goof off but given their playoff hopes, the fact that they're starting the full starting lineup I think they want to just take care of this quickly and cleanly.
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ -286 (2.86 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: BLG UNDER 17.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -111 (0.2775 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +11.5 kills @ -133 (0.3325 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +12.5 kills @ -159 (0.3975 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: BLG UNDER 17.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -135 (0.3375 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +11.5 kills @ -161 (0.4025 units)
(5Dimes)
----
Victory Five +790 (+1.5 @ +217)
vs
BiliBili Gaming -2381 (-1.5 @ -350)
Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, y4, clx
BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
vs
BiliBili Gaming -2381 (-1.5 @ -350)
Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, y4, clx
BLG: Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
Trends:
It's V5....
So the fact that BiliBili is -2300 against anybody is absurd BUT... it's the one and only Victory Five we're talking about here. Honestly would hope to get better odds in this situation.
Victory Five played, in my opinion, their best series of the season against TOP in JackeyLove's return. They still kinda got smoked.
BiliBili aren't technically eliminated yet but a lot depends on the exact results of Team WE, Rogue Warriors, and OMG's match. Team WE and OMG also play on the last day of the season. What BiliBili need to happen is Team WE to lose their next two matches by at least 3 games to move their differential to -5 and then 2-0 OMG on the final day to move to a 7-9 with a -3 game differential. They need that AND Rogue Warriors AND Vici to lose in different combinations as well. So it's not impossible but... yea you get the idea.
Still I think BiliBili are going to be game for this match. They've looked a lot better recently and seem to have settled on the identity that they're an uptempo team now and playing through Meteor which is awesome and what they should have been doing the whole time. Everyone has been playing really well. I also think that because they play the first match and don't get to see any of these "needed" results before they play means they won't be pre-defeated or pre-eliminated before this match. Schedule is a blessing in disguise for them.
Victory Five have lost all but 2 of their 28 losses by at least 7 kills and they have an AMOD of 12.32 for the season (13.33 trending past six) which is absurd considering their ... *clears throat* large and exquisite sample size of losses. BLG have a slightly below average AMOV of 10.38 (9.16 trending).
BiliBili are averaging 16.72 kills per win this season (16.16 trending). Their spike performances were 27, 20, 21, 18, and 13. The other 13 of their 18 (72.2%) wins were with 17 or fewer kills. Our most recent sample size of a "bad" team for BiliBili was the surging LGD and Dominus. BLG went under 17 in three out of four of those wins. The -110 17.5 team total is a nice value in this spot.
Given BLG's combined kills+deaths per game of 23.9 and the fact that we're taking the under it's going to make the V5 kill spreads appealing. I project this series to be roughly 16-7 per game but with a high degree of variance.
The risk with all of this is that BiliBili could use this as a "style fest" in their final game of the season. A lot of teams use their match against V5 to goof off but given their playoff hopes, the fact that they're starting the full starting lineup I think they want to just take care of this quickly and cleanly.
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ -286 (2.86 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: BLG UNDER 17.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -111 (0.2775 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +11.5 kills @ -133 (0.3325 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +12.5 kills @ -159 (0.3975 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: BLG UNDER 17.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -135 (0.3375 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +11.5 kills @ -161 (0.4025 units)
(5Dimes)
----
FunPlus Phoenix -556 (-1.5 @ -145)
vs
LGD Gaming +334 (+1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
Trends:
FPX are 10-3 as favorites, 6-7 ATS
FPX are 4-1, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs EDG, Vici, LNG, V5, OMG)
LGD are 4-7 as underdogs, 8-3 ATS
LGD are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
LGD have won their past three underdog appearances outright with their past two as 2-0's
(2-0's vs OMG, RNG, 2-1 vs WE)
LGD have been a spicy underdog, one of the big contributors to the last season underdog surge with their all-in early game style focused around Peanut who appears to be in 2016-18 form again which is awesome to see. That said, when he faced a good jungler in Meteor last match, and to a lesser extent Beishang even though they won, he wasn't able to get some of the leads that LGD rely heavily on. Now he gets Tian.
With three matches left to play vs eStar's two, FunPlus can win out to take their #2 or even Invictus' #1 seed to earn a bye to semifinals. They're also being tailed by the surging JDG and EDG. FPX look back in form with Gimgoon back in the lineup. All but one ATS loss for FPX (BiliBili) has been against playoff teams, more specifically top six teams. They aren't as exploitable early in games as most of the teams LGD taken upset wins against this season.
Although the AMOV and AMOD numbers don't support it I'm going with kill spreads in this spot. I think FPX utterly smash LGD. This is a stylistic nightmare for Peanut and the gang.
I was hoping to get plus odds on the LGD first blood since they're one of the best in the league while FPX are bottom half but I'll pass especially because I think fPX are going to be dialed in for this match.
More details over in my article at The Action Network.
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -161 (1.61 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: FPX -7.5 kills @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +136 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: FPX -7.5 kills @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +113 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +134 (0.2 units)
----
vs
LGD Gaming +334 (+1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
Trends:
FPX are 10-3 as favorites, 6-7 ATS
FPX are 4-1, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs EDG, Vici, LNG, V5, OMG)
LGD are 4-7 as underdogs, 8-3 ATS
LGD are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
LGD have won their past three underdog appearances outright with their past two as 2-0's
(2-0's vs OMG, RNG, 2-1 vs WE)
LGD have been a spicy underdog, one of the big contributors to the last season underdog surge with their all-in early game style focused around Peanut who appears to be in 2016-18 form again which is awesome to see. That said, when he faced a good jungler in Meteor last match, and to a lesser extent Beishang even though they won, he wasn't able to get some of the leads that LGD rely heavily on. Now he gets Tian.
With three matches left to play vs eStar's two, FunPlus can win out to take their #2 or even Invictus' #1 seed to earn a bye to semifinals. They're also being tailed by the surging JDG and EDG. FPX look back in form with Gimgoon back in the lineup. All but one ATS loss for FPX (BiliBili) has been against playoff teams, more specifically top six teams. They aren't as exploitable early in games as most of the teams LGD taken upset wins against this season.
Although the AMOV and AMOD numbers don't support it I'm going with kill spreads in this spot. I think FPX utterly smash LGD. This is a stylistic nightmare for Peanut and the gang.
I was hoping to get plus odds on the LGD first blood since they're one of the best in the league while FPX are bottom half but I'll pass especially because I think fPX are going to be dialed in for this match.
More details over in my article at The Action Network.
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -161 (1.61 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: FPX -7.5 kills @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +136 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: FPX -7.5 kills @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +113 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +134 (0.2 units)
----
eStar Gaming -130 (-1.5 @ +209)
vs
TOP eSports -105 (+1.5 @ -319)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, QiuQiu
Trends:
eStar are 7-4 as favorites, 5-6 ATS
eStar are 2-3, 2-3 ATS (same matches) in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs OMG, WE, JDG, RNG, Vici)
TOP are 1-1, 1-1 ATS in their two appearances as underdogs
(vs JDG, Invictus)
I thought JackeyLove looked ok in his return which is totally fine given how bizarre Victroy Five are with their cheese lanes. Still can't give it much weight. eStar are going to be a much more challenging test.
I've been saying that eStar have impressed me more recently than they did during their run. They're actually showing new wrinkles and strategies than their "always dive bot" trick that they did for about ten series straight. eStar play at a blistering pace that reminds me a lot of Invictus. I think their uptempo, skirmish-oriented style is a really good way to attack what TOP which is lane you to death. There's a chance we see what happened this morning in IG vs WE which is a similar stylistic matchup where IG were just able to individually outplay hard enough that they got massive leads but I'd wager that eStar prove more of a challenge than WE's relatively weak laners. As a matter of fact, speaking of wagers...
I'm on eStar here. This team is real. I don't think they're as good as the elite teams but I do think they're probably the best of the non-Invictus/JDG/FPX teams in the LPL. They're a gatekeeper to the elite teams similar to KT Rolster in the LCK. TOP have been rather two-faced and they're still incorporating JackeyLove who is going to go from playing against Victory Five to eStar who he's never seen before on the Rift. That's a pretty drastic change and could be a shock to the system.
I'm sticking to just sides in this series. TOP are so up and down in their performances that it's difficult to bet prop markets involving them. Their high kills per loss is skewed by extreme highs and lows and not a lot in between. While eStar overs have been nails this season, it's tough to know which TOP show up here and with high totals we're just going to avoid it.
I see this series playing out very similarly to the OMG series as TOP and OMG are similar stylistic teams.
Moneyline: eStar -130 (1.3 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +217 (5Dimes)
------------------------
vs
TOP eSports -105 (+1.5 @ -319)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, QiuQiu
Trends:
eStar are 7-4 as favorites, 5-6 ATS
eStar are 2-3, 2-3 ATS (same matches) in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs OMG, WE, JDG, RNG, Vici)
TOP are 1-1, 1-1 ATS in their two appearances as underdogs
(vs JDG, Invictus)
I thought JackeyLove looked ok in his return which is totally fine given how bizarre Victroy Five are with their cheese lanes. Still can't give it much weight. eStar are going to be a much more challenging test.
I've been saying that eStar have impressed me more recently than they did during their run. They're actually showing new wrinkles and strategies than their "always dive bot" trick that they did for about ten series straight. eStar play at a blistering pace that reminds me a lot of Invictus. I think their uptempo, skirmish-oriented style is a really good way to attack what TOP which is lane you to death. There's a chance we see what happened this morning in IG vs WE which is a similar stylistic matchup where IG were just able to individually outplay hard enough that they got massive leads but I'd wager that eStar prove more of a challenge than WE's relatively weak laners. As a matter of fact, speaking of wagers...
I'm on eStar here. This team is real. I don't think they're as good as the elite teams but I do think they're probably the best of the non-Invictus/JDG/FPX teams in the LPL. They're a gatekeeper to the elite teams similar to KT Rolster in the LCK. TOP have been rather two-faced and they're still incorporating JackeyLove who is going to go from playing against Victory Five to eStar who he's never seen before on the Rift. That's a pretty drastic change and could be a shock to the system.
I'm sticking to just sides in this series. TOP are so up and down in their performances that it's difficult to bet prop markets involving them. Their high kills per loss is skewed by extreme highs and lows and not a lot in between. While eStar overs have been nails this season, it's tough to know which TOP show up here and with high totals we're just going to avoid it.
I see this series playing out very similarly to the OMG series as TOP and OMG are similar stylistic teams.
Moneyline: eStar -130 (1.3 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +217 (5Dimes)
------------------------
LCK (Korea)
Week 9 - Day 2
(Final day of regular season)
Hanwha Life eSports -183 (-1.5 @ +159)
vs
Griffin +134 (+1.5 @ -246)
Trends:
Hanwha Life are 1-3 as favorites, 0-4 ATS
(vs APK twice, KT, Griffin)
Griffin are 3-13 as underdogs, 7-9 ATS
Griffin are 2-3, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
Hanwha won the last meeting 2-1
This is a challenging spot because Griffin have locked 10th place meaning they have to play in the relegation playoff to remain in the league in a couple of weeks. Contrary to popular belief, the teams in this situation don't often "quit" because they have nothing to play for. This is the best possible practice they can be getting.
Hanwha Life are actually the team with nothing to play for in this spot becasue SANDBOX confirmed 9th place with their loss to DAMWON today. The "G2 of Korea" hasn't exactly panned out although they've had their moments. I'd expect Hanwha Life to start all the subs and people they want to try out heading into Summer in this series while Griffin are going to want to be on form as much as possible in their final "stage" practice before relegations.
Griffin have actually looked better in spots at times recently including some great games against DAMWON, APK, and T1. Hanwha are fresh off of an upset win against Gen.G.
I'm actually going to be on Griffin in this spot. The motivational factors plus the potential to see a lot of substitutions instead of the normal lineup with "nothing to play for" while Griffin are going to still be in the zone.
Griffin also have one of the highest first blood rates in the LCK while Hanwha have the third least.
One underdog special please
Spread: Griffin +1.5 maps @ -238 (2.38 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Griffin +134 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +342 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
Map 1:
Prop: Griffin first blood @ -106 (0.53 units)
Map 2:
Prop: Griffin first blood @ -106 (0.53 units)
----
(Final day of regular season)
Hanwha Life eSports -183 (-1.5 @ +159)
vs
Griffin +134 (+1.5 @ -246)
Trends:
Hanwha Life are 1-3 as favorites, 0-4 ATS
(vs APK twice, KT, Griffin)
Griffin are 3-13 as underdogs, 7-9 ATS
Griffin are 2-3, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
Hanwha won the last meeting 2-1
This is a challenging spot because Griffin have locked 10th place meaning they have to play in the relegation playoff to remain in the league in a couple of weeks. Contrary to popular belief, the teams in this situation don't often "quit" because they have nothing to play for. This is the best possible practice they can be getting.
Hanwha Life are actually the team with nothing to play for in this spot becasue SANDBOX confirmed 9th place with their loss to DAMWON today. The "G2 of Korea" hasn't exactly panned out although they've had their moments. I'd expect Hanwha Life to start all the subs and people they want to try out heading into Summer in this series while Griffin are going to want to be on form as much as possible in their final "stage" practice before relegations.
Griffin have actually looked better in spots at times recently including some great games against DAMWON, APK, and T1. Hanwha are fresh off of an upset win against Gen.G.
I'm actually going to be on Griffin in this spot. The motivational factors plus the potential to see a lot of substitutions instead of the normal lineup with "nothing to play for" while Griffin are going to still be in the zone.
Griffin also have one of the highest first blood rates in the LCK while Hanwha have the third least.
One underdog special please
Spread: Griffin +1.5 maps @ -238 (2.38 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Griffin +134 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +342 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
Map 1:
Prop: Griffin first blood @ -106 (0.53 units)
Map 2:
Prop: Griffin first blood @ -106 (0.53 units)
----
DragonX -746 (-1.5 @ -180)
vs
APK Prince +400 (+1.5 @ +118)
Trends:
DragonX are 12-2 as favorites, 6-8 ATS
DRX are 5-0, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs Afreeca, DAMWON, KT, Sandbox, Griffin)
APK are 6-10 as underdogs, 9-7 ATS
APK are 4-1, 5-0 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs Hanwha, Gen.G, KT, Afreeca, Sandbox)
This is another strange motivation spot where one team has more to play for than the other. That doesn't always play out how you'd expect, as a matter of fact it's usually not as big a factor as people think but in this case, DRX could lock the #2 seed in the gauntlet-style playoff meaning they get to watch two matches first which is a huge advantage most of the time. They have to win 2-0 specifically to do that.
APK have secured a spot in LCK Summer with SANDBOX's loss today leaving them in a similar place to Hanwha Life with nothing to play for but pride here. APK have been surprisingly good this season. In a region that continued to disrespect them they were good to fight back with logical drafts and appropriate focus on neutral objectivers while teams continued to get cute against them. Hybrid has been the 2nd most efficient carry on the planet in terms of damage per gold this season on a losing team which is impressive although it makes sense given how low Cover's damage share is since he creates space for him... I digress.
I don't think DragonX will limit test or try anything weird here, they've punted too many games doing that and with the ability to steal side selection and #2 from T1 I don't think they'll be screwing around.
I did a more detailed writeup with numbers and stuff on this over at The Action Network. GIMME THEM CLICKS YO!
I'm very heavy on DRX tomorrow through this and parlays, obviously if you're tailing cater your own risk tolerance.
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -164 (2.46 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -123 (1.23 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -122 (1.22 units)
vs
APK Prince +400 (+1.5 @ +118)
Trends:
DragonX are 12-2 as favorites, 6-8 ATS
DRX are 5-0, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs Afreeca, DAMWON, KT, Sandbox, Griffin)
APK are 6-10 as underdogs, 9-7 ATS
APK are 4-1, 5-0 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs Hanwha, Gen.G, KT, Afreeca, Sandbox)
This is another strange motivation spot where one team has more to play for than the other. That doesn't always play out how you'd expect, as a matter of fact it's usually not as big a factor as people think but in this case, DRX could lock the #2 seed in the gauntlet-style playoff meaning they get to watch two matches first which is a huge advantage most of the time. They have to win 2-0 specifically to do that.
APK have secured a spot in LCK Summer with SANDBOX's loss today leaving them in a similar place to Hanwha Life with nothing to play for but pride here. APK have been surprisingly good this season. In a region that continued to disrespect them they were good to fight back with logical drafts and appropriate focus on neutral objectivers while teams continued to get cute against them. Hybrid has been the 2nd most efficient carry on the planet in terms of damage per gold this season on a losing team which is impressive although it makes sense given how low Cover's damage share is since he creates space for him... I digress.
I don't think DragonX will limit test or try anything weird here, they've punted too many games doing that and with the ability to steal side selection and #2 from T1 I don't think they'll be screwing around.
I did a more detailed writeup with numbers and stuff on this over at The Action Network. GIMME THEM CLICKS YO!
I'm very heavy on DRX tomorrow through this and parlays, obviously if you're tailing cater your own risk tolerance.
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -164 (2.46 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -123 (1.23 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -122 (1.22 units)
------------------------
Other Leagues
none yet
--------------------
Parlays:
Parlay (2): BiliBili -1.5 maps + DragonX -1.5 maps @ +117 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): DRX -1.5 maps + FPX -1.5 maps @ +161 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): DragonX ML + FunPlus ML @ -255 (2.55 units)
Parlay (2): BiliBili -1.5 maps + DragonX -1.5 maps @ +117 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): DRX -1.5 maps + FPX -1.5 maps @ +161 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): DragonX ML + FunPlus ML @ -255 (2.55 units)
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