April 5th Recap:
LCK: 22 - 2 (+7.7035 units)
LPL: 9 - 13 (+0.9045 units)
LEC: 7 - 5 (+0.515 units)
LCS: 0 - 22 (-6.354 units)
Live: 4 - 1 (+3.395 units)
Parlays: 0 - 2 (-0.975 units)
Total: 42 - 45 (+5.189 units)
LPL: 9 - 13 (+0.9045 units)
LEC: 7 - 5 (+0.515 units)
LCS: 0 - 22 (-6.354 units)
Live: 4 - 1 (+3.395 units)
Parlays: 0 - 2 (-0.975 units)
Total: 42 - 45 (+5.189 units)
T1 / DAMWON (Net: +2.416)
I thought DAMWON would be competitive but when T1 left Senna up in both games, presumably to limit test and see if they could show other teams they could beat it, I knew DAMWON had a shot in this series. Turns out we got the 2-0. People better look out, DAMWON appear to have flipped a switch. For the last year or more this team has been very stubborn, refused to adapt, and because of it they were struggling in 2020. Now the'yre suddenly playing smart, disciplined LOL and ShowMaker is returning to form AND they've picked up on how to play LOL in 2020? This team could make a run.
APK / Griffin (Net: +1.4)
We got a little lucky on this one with APK punting away an ocean soul + elder + baron lead in the first game somehow. The Greatly Reluctant Fighters waited just long enough.
Hanwha/Afreeca (Net: +4.6425)
What the hell happened to this Afreeca team? The problems are fairly obvious and they just aren't doing anything to change it.
LNG / JDG (Net: +1.4625)
Zoom had an awesome first game back repelling a three man dive on Mordekaiser but honestly LNG should know better than to do that... JDG rolled.
EDG / BiliBili (Net: +2.75)
We got bailed out big time on this one with BiliBili punting a lead in game three the save a heavy handed live bet I put down when it looked like EDG was in full control. This more or less went as I expected. I correctly didn't trust EDG to cleanly close this out but they did ultimately get the job done.
Invictus/RNG (Net: -0.668)
Was it good for you too? The pace of the games when these two play is absolutely ridiculous! It's fascinating seeing RNG completely adjust their typical playstyle to match up against Invictus and most of the time they can hang in there with them. IG got the best of them in games two and three. We just missed hitting in the green on this one but I shaded towards the outright. More risk etc.
Misfits / Rogue (Net: +0.515)
Misfits owned game one, game two was an absolute slugfest. Games three and four were in Rogue's control. Rogue didn't blow me out of the water in this series though. I expected them to win but frankly I still don't think this team is playing remotely close to their ceiling.
Cloud 9 / 100 Thieves (Net: -6.354)
Kind of bummed that 100 Thieves couldn't steal a game here. Game three was looking promising but Cloud 9 just punished sloppy, slow setups too well. The last three weeks in NA have kind of destroyed me.
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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS!
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.Every so often somebody will get them shortly before game time. Do you research.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 6 - Day 1
Suning need this win if they want any kind of shot at making playoffs but they're starting Bin in the top lane over BiuBiu which is strange to me. I'm not sure it'll matter. Suning are coming off of a very challenging part of their schedule facing TOP, JDG, and Invictus in their last three. They were able to take games off of TOP and JDG in that span but they ended up 0-4 in matches in their previous four.
This team is better than their recent performance and I'd expect them to take care of business in this spot but there's no way I'm laying -207 for the 2-0. I don't trust V5 to take any games either at least not for the number we're getting.
Victory Five have lost 20 out of 21 of their losses by at least 7 kills this season. They're also about a kill under the league average in kills per loss. V5's AMOD is 12.05
Suning have won 14 out of 16 of their wins by at least 9 kills and are averaging 10.82 AMOV.
I'd look to the time under but at 31:00 I'll pass even with V5 involved.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ -196 (0.392 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ -167 (0.334 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ -141 (0.141 units)
Kill Spread: SN -8.5 kills @ -118 (0.118 units)
Kill Spread: SN -9.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -10.5 kills @ +124 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -11.5 kills @ +147 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.364 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ -154 (0.308 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ -128 (0.128 units)
Kill Spread: SN -8.5 kills @ -109 (0.109 units)
Kill Spread: SN -9.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -10.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -11.5 kills @ +156 (0.1 units)
----
Victory Five +543 (+1.5 @ +147)
vs
Suning Gaming -1136 (-1.5 @ -207)
Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Clx, y4, Max
Suning: Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
vs
Suning Gaming -1136 (-1.5 @ -207)
Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Clx, y4, Max
Suning: Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
Suning need this win if they want any kind of shot at making playoffs but they're starting Bin in the top lane over BiuBiu which is strange to me. I'm not sure it'll matter. Suning are coming off of a very challenging part of their schedule facing TOP, JDG, and Invictus in their last three. They were able to take games off of TOP and JDG in that span but they ended up 0-4 in matches in their previous four.
This team is better than their recent performance and I'd expect them to take care of business in this spot but there's no way I'm laying -207 for the 2-0. I don't trust V5 to take any games either at least not for the number we're getting.
Victory Five have lost 20 out of 21 of their losses by at least 7 kills this season. They're also about a kill under the league average in kills per loss. V5's AMOD is 12.05
Suning have won 14 out of 16 of their wins by at least 9 kills and are averaging 10.82 AMOV.
I'd look to the time under but at 31:00 I'll pass even with V5 involved.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ -196 (0.392 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ -167 (0.334 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ -141 (0.141 units)
Kill Spread: SN -8.5 kills @ -118 (0.118 units)
Kill Spread: SN -9.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -10.5 kills @ +124 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -11.5 kills @ +147 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: SN -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.364 units)
Kill Spread: SN -6.5 kills @ -154 (0.308 units)
Kill Spread: SN -7.5 kills @ -128 (0.128 units)
Kill Spread: SN -8.5 kills @ -109 (0.109 units)
Kill Spread: SN -9.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -10.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: SN -11.5 kills @ +156 (0.1 units)
----
Vici Gaming -154 (-1.5 @ +197)
vs
OMG +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, cold
These two teams are evenly matched at worst. If anything OMG should be favored. Vici are favored only because they're on a 3 match winning streak against eStar, LNG, and LGD while OMG are on a three game losing streak but to the nightmare of Invictus, TOP, and FPX, three of the best in the league.
OMG have better economy, have been more consistent, and as a tiebreaker, superior players all all but one position in my opinion.
This is a gift. OMG should be the -154 favorite here.
In terms of other markets on this one, I was looking at the kill under as Vici have the lowest kill per win total in the LPL and OMG are well below league average as well. Both teams are also well below average in kills per loss. Combined kills+deaths these two teams together average 22.6. I like the under quite a bit in this spot even at the lower numbers.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -263 (2.63 units)
Moneyline: OMG +114 (1.5 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +277 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +0.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG -0.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG -1.5 kills @ +139 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +1.5 kills @ +109 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +0.5 kills @ +126 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG -0.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
----
vs
OMG +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
Lineups:
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, cold
These two teams are evenly matched at worst. If anything OMG should be favored. Vici are favored only because they're on a 3 match winning streak against eStar, LNG, and LGD while OMG are on a three game losing streak but to the nightmare of Invictus, TOP, and FPX, three of the best in the league.
OMG have better economy, have been more consistent, and as a tiebreaker, superior players all all but one position in my opinion.
This is a gift. OMG should be the -154 favorite here.
In terms of other markets on this one, I was looking at the kill under as Vici have the lowest kill per win total in the LPL and OMG are well below league average as well. Both teams are also well below average in kills per loss. Combined kills+deaths these two teams together average 22.6. I like the under quite a bit in this spot even at the lower numbers.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -263 (2.63 units)
Moneyline: OMG +114 (1.5 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +277 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +0.5 kills @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG -0.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG -1.5 kills @ +139 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +1.5 kills @ +109 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG +0.5 kills @ +126 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: OMG -0.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
----
Rogue Warriors +395 (+1.5 @ +118)
vs
TOP eSports -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
Lineups:
RW: Crazy, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
vs
TOP eSports -769 (-1.5 @ -167)
Lineups:
RW: Crazy, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
I like Rogue Warriors with Crazy in the lineup over Holder this season but this is a tough ask. TOP haven't brought in JackeyLove to play yet but did sign him. This could have a few different effects. Photic might feel defeated like he has nothing to play for anymore because he's inevitably going to be replaced. That or could be extremely motivated and put up a stellar performance under the pressure in hopes of keeping his job or earning one somewhere else. It's interesting.
For the most part, TOP have taken care of business against bad and mediocre teams. Only one dropped game to Suning, one dropped game to Vici, and a weird 0-2 loss to LGD this entire season. TOP have won four straight and have been rolling. I feel like that signing might further invigorate this team.
Combined these teams have a kill+deaths average of 28.95 per game but TOP have a 16.71 kill per win total. They tend to play a more controlled, surgical style and grind teams to a pulp when they play. 16.71 is well below league average. Rogue Warriors are 4th in the league in kills per loss at 10.54 but they have a 31 kill loss to Invictus (who tend to have those kinds of games) that is an outlier. If we take out that game it's only slightly above average at 8.83 kills per loss. And in the past 7 losses it's been 7.57 kills per loss. I project this total at 24.28.
I expect TOP to roll here. When TOP win it tends to be somewhat like T1 in that it's low kill, clinical dismantlings. Instead of taking the -1.5 we're going to look for some stronger odds.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: TOP -8.5 kills @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 kills @ -119 (0.714 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 kills @ +102 (0.2 units)
Kil Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ +122 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 kills @ +144 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: TOP -8.5 kills @ -106 (0.265 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 kills @ -110 (0.66 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 kills @ +107 (0.2 units)
Kil Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ +128 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 kills @ +153 (0.2 units)
For the most part, TOP have taken care of business against bad and mediocre teams. Only one dropped game to Suning, one dropped game to Vici, and a weird 0-2 loss to LGD this entire season. TOP have won four straight and have been rolling. I feel like that signing might further invigorate this team.
Combined these teams have a kill+deaths average of 28.95 per game but TOP have a 16.71 kill per win total. They tend to play a more controlled, surgical style and grind teams to a pulp when they play. 16.71 is well below league average. Rogue Warriors are 4th in the league in kills per loss at 10.54 but they have a 31 kill loss to Invictus (who tend to have those kinds of games) that is an outlier. If we take out that game it's only slightly above average at 8.83 kills per loss. And in the past 7 losses it's been 7.57 kills per loss. I project this total at 24.28.
I expect TOP to roll here. When TOP win it tends to be somewhat like T1 in that it's low kill, clinical dismantlings. Instead of taking the -1.5 we're going to look for some stronger odds.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: TOP -8.5 kills @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 kills @ -119 (0.714 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 kills @ +102 (0.2 units)
Kil Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ +122 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 kills @ +144 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: TOP -8.5 kills @ -106 (0.265 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 kills @ -110 (0.66 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 kills @ +107 (0.2 units)
Kil Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ +128 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 kills @ +153 (0.2 units)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
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