April 19th Recap:
LPL: 9 - 6 (+2.7095 units)
LEC: 4 - 7 (-1.46 units)
LCS: 3 - 0 (+1.575 units)
Live: 1 - 0 (+1.0 units)
Total: +3.8245 units
LDG / JDG (Net: +1.0)
EDG / WE (Net: -0.11)
LNG / Invictus (Net: +1.8195)
G2 / Fnatic (Net: -0.46) (+1.0 live)
Cloud 9 / FlyQuest (Net: +1.575)
First of all, happy holidays to those who celebrate (you know who I mean...). Not a bad day!
The G2 / Fnatic series showed you just how ridiculous this G2 team can be when they care and prepare. The Kogmaw/Lulu was such a brilliant solution to abuse blind picking Aphelios and Fnatic looked absolutely lost on what to do.
Cloud 9 could have lost game one but overall played to the level I expected. This is probably the most dominant team in NA history and god damn does this region need it...
I'll be keeping this post rather short since I've done a lot of watching and writing today. I wrote on the two key matchups of the day (LCK playoffs and WE vs OMG) over at The Action Network so I'd encourage you to go check that out.
We're almost to the end everyone. I've been burning the oil at both ends handicapping, researching, keeping my databases up to date the best I can, VOD reviewing, writing gigs, and still working my full-time job. It's all kind of crazy and I can't wait for a break but it's been one hell of a rollercoaster in this condensed schedule and I'm glad you all were here to encourage and join me. I hope that my content has helped in whatever capacity during this weird time!
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LEC: 4 - 7 (-1.46 units)
LCS: 3 - 0 (+1.575 units)
Live: 1 - 0 (+1.0 units)
Total: +3.8245 units
LDG / JDG (Net: +1.0)
EDG / WE (Net: -0.11)
LNG / Invictus (Net: +1.8195)
G2 / Fnatic (Net: -0.46) (+1.0 live)
Cloud 9 / FlyQuest (Net: +1.575)
First of all, happy holidays to those who celebrate (you know who I mean...). Not a bad day!
The G2 / Fnatic series showed you just how ridiculous this G2 team can be when they care and prepare. The Kogmaw/Lulu was such a brilliant solution to abuse blind picking Aphelios and Fnatic looked absolutely lost on what to do.
Cloud 9 could have lost game one but overall played to the level I expected. This is probably the most dominant team in NA history and god damn does this region need it...
I'll be keeping this post rather short since I've done a lot of watching and writing today. I wrote on the two key matchups of the day (LCK playoffs and WE vs OMG) over at The Action Network so I'd encourage you to go check that out.
We're almost to the end everyone. I've been burning the oil at both ends handicapping, researching, keeping my databases up to date the best I can, VOD reviewing, writing gigs, and still working my full-time job. It's all kind of crazy and I can't wait for a break but it's been one hell of a rollercoaster in this condensed schedule and I'm glad you all were here to encourage and join me. I hope that my content has helped in whatever capacity during this weird time!
--------------------------
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
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LCK (Korea)
Playoffs - Round 2
DAMWON +243 (+1.5 @ -111, +2.5 @ -360)
vs
DragonX -340 (-1.5 @ -135, -2.5 @ +224)
I did a more detailed write up on this one over at The Action Network
The long and short of it is that DAMWON looked good against KT Rolster but DAMWON have had a lot of trouble putting together consistent series. There is also a noticable uptick in quality when stepping up to the top tier LCK teams (T1, DragonX, and Gen.G).
cvMax has had DAWMON's number with a 5-1 career match record and 10-3 game record between DragonX and Griffin. DAMWON is mostly the same team and DragonX are spiritually very similar to Griffin even with some of the same players so I thought it was an appropriate comparison.
DAMWON also have a 1-5 match record (4-10 game record) against the top three LCK teams and their only win came against T1 that was playing Ellim and leaving Senna up for both drafts as limit-testing.
DragonX are going to smash this series.
This kill total is really odd to me. Over the course of the season these two teams have an average of 22.7 kills+deaths per game but their trending numbers of 25.0 for DRX and 20.875 for DWG tell a different story. There was 24.33 avg in the last meeting between these two and 26.0 combined over both meetings but based on trending KPW and KPL numbers as well as playoffs generally being higher pressure and lower kills I'm going to abstain.
Moneyline: DragonX -323 (3.23 units)
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -125 (1.25 units)
Spread: DragonX -2.5 maps @ +224 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
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vs
DragonX -340 (-1.5 @ -135, -2.5 @ +224)
I did a more detailed write up on this one over at The Action Network
The long and short of it is that DAMWON looked good against KT Rolster but DAMWON have had a lot of trouble putting together consistent series. There is also a noticable uptick in quality when stepping up to the top tier LCK teams (T1, DragonX, and Gen.G).
cvMax has had DAWMON's number with a 5-1 career match record and 10-3 game record between DragonX and Griffin. DAMWON is mostly the same team and DragonX are spiritually very similar to Griffin even with some of the same players so I thought it was an appropriate comparison.
DAMWON also have a 1-5 match record (4-10 game record) against the top three LCK teams and their only win came against T1 that was playing Ellim and leaving Senna up for both drafts as limit-testing.
DragonX are going to smash this series.
This kill total is really odd to me. Over the course of the season these two teams have an average of 22.7 kills+deaths per game but their trending numbers of 25.0 for DRX and 20.875 for DWG tell a different story. There was 24.33 avg in the last meeting between these two and 26.0 combined over both meetings but based on trending KPW and KPL numbers as well as playoffs generally being higher pressure and lower kills I'm going to abstain.
Moneyline: DragonX -323 (3.23 units)
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -125 (1.25 units)
Spread: DragonX -2.5 maps @ +224 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
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LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 8
Trends:
Neither of these teams have anything to play for. Both have been our fiesty underdogs this season.... give me the underdog special.
More importantly, since both of these teams have nothing to play for and tend to be fast and furiously bloody of late I absolutely LOVE the kill totals in these late season meaningless spots.
Spread: RW +1.5 maps @ -222 (2.22 units)
Moneyline: RW +142 (0.5 units)
Spread: RW -1.5 maps @ +345 (-.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)
----
LGD Gaming -185 (-1.5 @ +149)
vs
Rogue Warriors +132 (+1.5 @ -235)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
RW: Crazy, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
vs
Rogue Warriors +132 (+1.5 @ -235)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
RW: Crazy, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
Trends:
Neither of these teams have anything to play for. Both have been our fiesty underdogs this season.... give me the underdog special.
More importantly, since both of these teams have nothing to play for and tend to be fast and furiously bloody of late I absolutely LOVE the kill totals in these late season meaningless spots.
Spread: RW +1.5 maps @ -222 (2.22 units)
Moneyline: RW +142 (0.5 units)
Spread: RW -1.5 maps @ +345 (-.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)
----
OMG -142 (-1.5 @ +204)
vs
Team WE +103 (+1.5 @ -319)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
Trends:
Read my writeup on The Action Network for more on this one.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -435 (2.175 units)
Map Total: OVER 2.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
----
TOP eSports +186 (+1.5 @ -169)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -265 (-1.5 @ +110)
Lineups:
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
Trends:
This is a tough one to gauge. TOP own the tiebreaker against eStar so if they exactly 2-0 this match then they could earn a bye for the first round but FPX need to win by any amount to get a bye into semi-finals or lose it to JDG. I normally hate series like this because it's tough to tell motivation. Both teams have looked good, FPX better, of late. TOP could also completely check out if they lose the first game if their heads aren't right.
I don't particularly think either will happen as there's a lot of rivalry amongst these players and everybody wants to take down the champs.
TOP have the talent to hang with FPX but I'm not sure they have the synergy yet. This is going to be an underdog special but it wouldn't surprise me to see an FPX 2-0 either. I just think given the circumstances this line is a bit inflated.
I'm avoiding totals in this series for the previously mentioned reasons as well. It's tough to know if this will be a "we lost, check out" situation for TOP and these teams tend to play either feast or famine kill total matches.
Spread: TOP +1.5 maps @ -164 (1.64 units)
Moneyline: TOP +186 (0.5 units)
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +479 (0.1 units)
vs
Team WE +103 (+1.5 @ -319)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
Trends:
Read my writeup on The Action Network for more on this one.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -435 (2.175 units)
Map Total: OVER 2.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
----
TOP eSports +186 (+1.5 @ -169)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -265 (-1.5 @ +110)
Lineups:
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
Trends:
This is a tough one to gauge. TOP own the tiebreaker against eStar so if they exactly 2-0 this match then they could earn a bye for the first round but FPX need to win by any amount to get a bye into semi-finals or lose it to JDG. I normally hate series like this because it's tough to tell motivation. Both teams have looked good, FPX better, of late. TOP could also completely check out if they lose the first game if their heads aren't right.
I don't particularly think either will happen as there's a lot of rivalry amongst these players and everybody wants to take down the champs.
TOP have the talent to hang with FPX but I'm not sure they have the synergy yet. This is going to be an underdog special but it wouldn't surprise me to see an FPX 2-0 either. I just think given the circumstances this line is a bit inflated.
I'm avoiding totals in this series for the previously mentioned reasons as well. It's tough to know if this will be a "we lost, check out" situation for TOP and these teams tend to play either feast or famine kill total matches.
Spread: TOP +1.5 maps @ -164 (1.64 units)
Moneyline: TOP +186 (0.5 units)
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +479 (0.1 units)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
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