April 12th Recap:
LPL: (-0.5297 units)
LCK: (-1.891 units)
LEC: (+1.99 units)
LCS: (-5.41 units)
Live: (+0.85 units)
Parlays: -2.8 units
Total: -7.7907 units
Suning/Dominus (Net: -2.201)
EDG/FPX (Net: -4.27)
-4.62 on live
BiliBili/Invictus (Net: +2.831)
+1.51 live
Afreeca/DragonX (Net: -0.946)
Gen.G/Hanwha (Net: +0.055)
+1.0 live
G2/Origen (Net: +1.99)
TSM/FlyQuest (Net: -3.56)
Hedge out after game three at a bad number, made back 1.85 to cut losses. Just a disgraceful performance honestly. Abysmal drafting by TSM in every single game. FlyQuest wasn't exactly great in a few of the games either which is weird for them.... just a clown fiesta of a series, see my twitter timeline.
If I just didn't bet NA this split... jeez
--------------------------
The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top or you can DM me on Twitter if you prefer crypto or other means.
CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
-------------------------
(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 1
Trends:
eStar are 6-4 as favorites, 4-6 ATS
OMG are 3-5 as underdogs, 5-3 ATS
OMG have struggled mightily with the top teams in the LPL this split. 0-2 to IG, 0-2 to TOP, 1-2 to FPX, 1-2 to RNG, 0-2 to JDG (in week one). I think this is a challenging stylistic matchup for OMG. eStar play at a really fast pace, similar to IG or FPX. Individually I think they outclass eStar but I'm not entirely sure how much that will matter.
This is challenging. I'm fairly confident that eStar win this match even though OMG have better players but I'm not going to lay -234 on it. Instead I'm going to take an outside the box approach here. To me, this isn't going to be a slugfest. Either OMG will outclass in lanes and individually and win 2-0 or eStar's pace will be too much to handle and it'll be a swift eStar 2-0. I RARELY play the double 2-0 when two good teams are involved, it's usually reserved for the bottom of the table teams but I think this is a spot where the styles are so drastically different that it makes sense to. OMG have gone to three games in just 5 out of 13 series. eStar ahve gone to three games in just 5 out of 14.
Like I said, my gut says eStar's "screw lane phase I'm roaming" style is a poor matchup for what OMG want to do which is just lane you to death with good invidiuals but this is a unique position for the double 2-0. The UNDER 2.5 maps is at -114.
If we were to put a unit on the -114 we'd net around 0.88 units if either 2-0 happens.
If we put a unit on each of the spreads we'll either net 0.65 units OR 3.28 units.
I'm going to split wager on both with the upside of having the OMG 2-0. Underdogs have been killing it as you all know recently.
I'm avoiding kill spreads and totals in this spot because the game scripts are drastically different between these two teams. If you think OMG win the unders are good, if you think eStar win the overs are nice. Being that I could see it going either way I'll just stick to our split stake on the spreads.
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +165 (1 unit)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +428 (1 unit)
----
(from 5Dimes)
eStar -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
vs
OMG +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
vs
OMG +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
Trends:
eStar are 6-4 as favorites, 4-6 ATS
OMG are 3-5 as underdogs, 5-3 ATS
OMG have struggled mightily with the top teams in the LPL this split. 0-2 to IG, 0-2 to TOP, 1-2 to FPX, 1-2 to RNG, 0-2 to JDG (in week one). I think this is a challenging stylistic matchup for OMG. eStar play at a really fast pace, similar to IG or FPX. Individually I think they outclass eStar but I'm not entirely sure how much that will matter.
This is challenging. I'm fairly confident that eStar win this match even though OMG have better players but I'm not going to lay -234 on it. Instead I'm going to take an outside the box approach here. To me, this isn't going to be a slugfest. Either OMG will outclass in lanes and individually and win 2-0 or eStar's pace will be too much to handle and it'll be a swift eStar 2-0. I RARELY play the double 2-0 when two good teams are involved, it's usually reserved for the bottom of the table teams but I think this is a spot where the styles are so drastically different that it makes sense to. OMG have gone to three games in just 5 out of 13 series. eStar ahve gone to three games in just 5 out of 14.
Like I said, my gut says eStar's "screw lane phase I'm roaming" style is a poor matchup for what OMG want to do which is just lane you to death with good invidiuals but this is a unique position for the double 2-0. The UNDER 2.5 maps is at -114.
If we were to put a unit on the -114 we'd net around 0.88 units if either 2-0 happens.
If we put a unit on each of the spreads we'll either net 0.65 units OR 3.28 units.
I'm going to split wager on both with the upside of having the OMG 2-0. Underdogs have been killing it as you all know recently.
I'm avoiding kill spreads and totals in this spot because the game scripts are drastically different between these two teams. If you think OMG win the unders are good, if you think eStar win the overs are nice. Being that I could see it going either way I'll just stick to our split stake on the spreads.
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +165 (1 unit)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +428 (1 unit)
----
(from 5Dimes)
Royal Never Give Up -435 (-1.5 @ -115)
vs
LNG eSports +304 (+1.5 @ -110)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
LNG: Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
Trends:
RNG are 4-4 as favorites, 2-6 ATS
RNG are 0-2 as favorites in their last two
RNG are 1-4 ATS in their past five positions as favorites
LNG are 1-6 as underdogs, 3-4 ATS
Lines aren't out for this series as of 2pm Eastern Sunday. I'm expecting it to be RNG -350 or so.
Debut series for Chenlun17. I know next to nothing about this guy other than some cursory research of his time on LNG's LOL Developmental League team which was, by the way, the 25th out of 25 teams in the minor leagues... yikes. His rate statistics are actually decent for a guy on the dead last place team that won 5 games but nothing is particularly sticking out to me otherwise. With the LDL not playing this season we're completely in the dark here.
For as bad as RNG have been both straight up and against the spread, especially recently, I have to think they'll get it together for this matchup with their playoff lives on the line now. Stylistically, LNG are not a team that can punish what RNG want to do, as a matter of fact, I'd lean the other direction because of RNG's versatility.
LNG aren't mathematically eliminated but it'd be borderline impossible for them to make playoffs from the 16th spot. Meanwhile RNG absolutely need this game to keep up with a heated race for the 5th-8th slots. The battle goes all the way down to 12th place LGD realistically. RNG will be up for this game.
I'll be waiting for lines to come out on this one and updating it later.
UPDATE:
The more I thought about this over the course of the day the more I'm thinking RNG just stomp this matchup. LNG are signaling that they've more or less mailed the season in. That doesn't mean they'll be a no-show but limited practice with the new player on a team that was already rather linear and predictable against a team that's in must-win mode I just have to fade that. The numbers support it even if the trends don't.
I project this total to be about 24.1 so we're going to take the under there as well especially since, when RNG are on form, they tend to play cleaner, low kill games than most of the other teams in the LPL.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -115 (2.3 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -103 (0.515 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +117 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +142 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +113 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +137 (0.1 units)
----
vs
LNG eSports +304 (+1.5 @ -110)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
LNG: Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
Trends:
RNG are 4-4 as favorites, 2-6 ATS
RNG are 0-2 as favorites in their last two
RNG are 1-4 ATS in their past five positions as favorites
LNG are 1-6 as underdogs, 3-4 ATS
Lines aren't out for this series as of 2pm Eastern Sunday. I'm expecting it to be RNG -350 or so.
Debut series for Chenlun17. I know next to nothing about this guy other than some cursory research of his time on LNG's LOL Developmental League team which was, by the way, the 25th out of 25 teams in the minor leagues... yikes. His rate statistics are actually decent for a guy on the dead last place team that won 5 games but nothing is particularly sticking out to me otherwise. With the LDL not playing this season we're completely in the dark here.
For as bad as RNG have been both straight up and against the spread, especially recently, I have to think they'll get it together for this matchup with their playoff lives on the line now. Stylistically, LNG are not a team that can punish what RNG want to do, as a matter of fact, I'd lean the other direction because of RNG's versatility.
LNG aren't mathematically eliminated but it'd be borderline impossible for them to make playoffs from the 16th spot. Meanwhile RNG absolutely need this game to keep up with a heated race for the 5th-8th slots. The battle goes all the way down to 12th place LGD realistically. RNG will be up for this game.
I'll be waiting for lines to come out on this one and updating it later.
UPDATE:
The more I thought about this over the course of the day the more I'm thinking RNG just stomp this matchup. LNG are signaling that they've more or less mailed the season in. That doesn't mean they'll be a no-show but limited practice with the new player on a team that was already rather linear and predictable against a team that's in must-win mode I just have to fade that. The numbers support it even if the trends don't.
I project this total to be about 24.1 so we're going to take the under there as well especially since, when RNG are on form, they tend to play cleaner, low kill games than most of the other teams in the LPL.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -115 (2.3 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -103 (0.515 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +117 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +142 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +113 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +137 (0.1 units)
----
TOP eSports -3448 (-1.5 @ -422)
vs
Victory Five +790 (+1.5 @ +271)
Lineups:
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, y4, clx
Trends:
.... its V5
The return of JackeyLove. I mentioned to my colleagues that this is such a strange spot. Either this is going to look brilliant if he comes in and saves their season or it'll look moronic and desperate if he's not in "game shape" yet. TOP have been losing some games from limit testing, others straight up. They're in a weird funk. It hasn't been Photic's fault and as I've mentioned a bunch of times already, we simply do not know how JackeyLove will look outside of the context of IG. We don't know how he's going to look after time off. WE JUST DON'T KNOW. Luckily... Victory Five are just what the doctor ordered. This isn't going to be a good litmus test. DO NOT OVERREACT TO THIS RESULT... it's Victory Five.
There are very limited markets on this match. I'm just going to stay away.
UPDATE:
Markets opened up and you know who I'm on
V5 are losing by an average of 13.33 over their past six matches and that includes a 0... they're 12.23 for the season. TOP are winning by an average of 10.33 in their past six (includes a 1 and a 2) and 9.33 for the season. V5 have lost by double digit spreads in all but 7 of their 26 losses.
I'm going to take the conservative kill spread of -6.5 which V5 have only covered in 2 of their 26 losses.
Victory Five have only had 3 games go over 31:00 in their past 8 matches (16 losses).
Slightly differentiating my exposure here for a little more value than the spread but I think TOP get a clean sweep.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: TOP -6.5 kills @ -172 (1.72 units)
Time Total: UNDER 31:00 @ -135 (1.35 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: TOP -6.5 kills @ -162 (1.62 units)
Time Total: UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)
vs
Victory Five +790 (+1.5 @ +271)
Lineups:
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, y4, clx
Trends:
.... its V5
The return of JackeyLove. I mentioned to my colleagues that this is such a strange spot. Either this is going to look brilliant if he comes in and saves their season or it'll look moronic and desperate if he's not in "game shape" yet. TOP have been losing some games from limit testing, others straight up. They're in a weird funk. It hasn't been Photic's fault and as I've mentioned a bunch of times already, we simply do not know how JackeyLove will look outside of the context of IG. We don't know how he's going to look after time off. WE JUST DON'T KNOW. Luckily... Victory Five are just what the doctor ordered. This isn't going to be a good litmus test. DO NOT OVERREACT TO THIS RESULT... it's Victory Five.
There are very limited markets on this match. I'm just going to stay away.
UPDATE:
Markets opened up and you know who I'm on
V5 are losing by an average of 13.33 over their past six matches and that includes a 0... they're 12.23 for the season. TOP are winning by an average of 10.33 in their past six (includes a 1 and a 2) and 9.33 for the season. V5 have lost by double digit spreads in all but 7 of their 26 losses.
I'm going to take the conservative kill spread of -6.5 which V5 have only covered in 2 of their 26 losses.
Victory Five have only had 3 games go over 31:00 in their past 8 matches (16 losses).
Slightly differentiating my exposure here for a little more value than the spread but I think TOP get a clean sweep.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: TOP -6.5 kills @ -172 (1.72 units)
Time Total: UNDER 31:00 @ -135 (1.35 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: TOP -6.5 kills @ -162 (1.62 units)
Time Total: UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)
------------------------
Other Leagues
none yet
--------------------
Parlays:
No comments:
Post a Comment