Tuesday, April 7, 2020

April 8th: LPL, LCK, LCS




April 7th Recap:



LPL:  11 - 11 (+2.529 units)


LCS: 2 - 0 (+1.26 units)


Live: 0 - 2 (-0.5 units)

Total:  13 - 13 (+3.289 units)




BiliBili/Dominus (Net: +0.278)

We got somewhat brutalized on a few >+300 live bets that looked outstanding once BLG turned the corner in game one but then Jinjiao punted really badly when BLG were rotating for the final inhibitor getting caught. Brutal bad beat... Should have been a 2-0 series AND A huge payoff on the live picks but we still come out in the green.


JD Gaming/eStar (Net: 
+1.799)


eStar actually showed a lot of good things in this series. The ability to play through top instead of forcing bot, the ability to respond on the opposite side of the map (not bot) to plays made by the opponent, a new pick in Janna that I think might start seeing at least some play against Taric. eStar impressed me more in this loss than in some of their wins. That said... come on this was easy folks.


FunPlus/LNG (Net: +0.73)


FunPlus definitely should have lost this first game and more or less just intimidated LNG into screwing up. Perhaps it was the fear aura or perhaps... *cues X-Files theme song*...


Game two was one of the most disgusting single game performances I've ever seen. Doinb put up 21k damage in 24 minutes on Kassadin a scaling, late game carry that builds two scaling items (Rod of Ages and Archangel's Staff) to build up to the late game and is MOSTLY single target or low range AOE. This is the LOL equivalent to scoring like 50 points as one player in the first half of an NBA game. The funneling of all the tower plate gold to him (I think it was +1100?) was insane as well. I said on Twitter, when I'm actively playing a lot I'm a top 1% player in low to mid diamond range. I've played a few hundred Kassadin games over the years a lot of them in that range and I'm not entirely sure I could put up a performance like this against five new players. I can't understate enough how ridiculous this was.



FlyQuest/Golden Guardians (Net: +1.26)


FlyQuest ended up sweeping this series, most of which I missed live so I couldn't get down on it but after rewatching it I probably missed out. This team is just like a diet Origen. If you play within the textbook rules they're great and consistent but the second good teams break that mold or just have significantly better players than you they have trouble. That wasn't the case today. Golden Guardians showed they didn't really deserve to be in playoffs. Don't forget that team was 9th for most of the season...
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


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LPL (China)

LPL Trends:
Favorites are 65-32
Favorites spreads are 39-58
Underdog 2-0's: 17 out of 97


Week 6 - Day 3


Vici Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
vs
Rogue Warriors +236 (+1.5 @ -141)

Lineups:

Vici:  Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
RW: Holder, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley

Trends:

Vici are 3-2 as favorites, 1-4 ATS
RW are 3-5 as underdogs, 5-3 ATS
Vici have gone to 3 games in 8 out of 12 series

Rogue Warriors have been one of the scrappier underdogs in the league but Vici have also been steadily improving as the season has gone on while Rogue Warriors have been trending the opposite direction. If you consider BiliBili's struggles and playstyle, TOP handing game two over to RW in the draft, and the fact that this team previously lost to Dominus and Team WE (albeit match fixing scandal was WE), Rogue Warriors simply don't look like much else than "better than Victory Five." 

I do appreciate the aggression the RW play with and that they have some players to play around but I prefer them as underdogs against other fight-happy teams and super slow-paced teams. A lot of people think Vici are a slow team, they aren't. They've been much stronger in tempo-focused situations and even when they aren't they've been steadily improving at playing proactive defense. 

This is a must-win for both teams but on film Vici just look like a vastly superior team. Forge and iBoy are going to have their inconsistencies and that will sometimes lose them games but this is a bad stylistic and strategic matchup for Rogue Warriors. It's one that you have to somewhat ignore the trends and numbers for to an extent.

Trending AMOV/AMOD and KPW/KPL stats for these teams tell a much different story than their season long averages. Assuming even weighting I cap this kill total at 26.5 but if you shade toward the Vici victory it's a slightly lower total. Based on the trending AMOV/AMOD I like the plus odds Vici spreads as well even if I think RW will be throwing the kitchen sink at this series. RW have a trending AMOD of 13.33.

Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +128 (0.5 units)

Map 1: 
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -127 (0.318 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -104 (0.27 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +115 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: VG -7.5 kills @ +116 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: VG -8.5 kills @ +139 (0.2 units)

Map 2: 
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -132(0.33 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -111 (0.278 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +111 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: VG -7.5 kills @ +113 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: VG -8.5 kills @ +134 (0.2 units)

(5Dimes)

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OMG -260 (-1.5 @ +123)
vs
Suning Gaming +172 (+1.5 @ -181)

Lineups:

OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
SN: Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

Trends:

OMG are 3-0 as favorites, 3-0 ATS (vs DOM, RW, V5)
Suning are 3-4 as underdogs, 5-2 ATS

These trends make a lot of sense given how underrated OMG and Suning both were going into the season. 

This is another really interesting spot. With just five games remaining, Suning likely need at least a 4-1 finish to have a chance at the #8 seed so this is more or less must-win territory. Suning's remaining schedule isn't too hard besides RNG so it's not completely outside the realm of possibility that they make a run here.  Suning dropped four series in a row but finally broke their loss streak with, you guessed it, Victory Five, just what the doctor ordered!. They managed to take games against TOP and JDG during that streak. 

Going into the season I mentioned that I thought the LPL was 11 playoff quality teams and 6 non-playoff teams. That leaves 3 playoff quality teams missing playoffs and I think Suning and Vici fit right into that spot. 

OMG are fresh off of an "upset" win over Vici although if you were tuned in here you knew they were incorrectly priced as underdogs. While I like this team I'm not entirely sure they should be laying -260 to Suning. Their macro simply isn't clean enough yet to trust them to 2-0 reliably even if the individual talent is there. They also haven't been reliably covering kill spreads. Even with Suning trending the opposite direction in terms of margin of defeat I'm just going to stay away from kill spreads. 

Totals, however, are a different story. Suning are one of the scrappiest losers in the league at 11.13 kills per loss. Their trending number is a tad lower than that and there have been a few low-end performances of late but Suning have hit double digit kills in 9 of their 16 losses. At 29.3 combined kills+deaths per game and a 0.83 CK per minute they're one of the bloodier overall teams considering their near .500 record. I like the total to go over in this spot. While OMG are a below average kill per win team, their sometimes sloppy macro and Suning's willingness to fight out of a deficit make me think this one could get ugly. In an OMG win/SN loss combo we're looking at a 25.66 range on the total, given that I think this should be a back-and-forth series it could surpass that.

OMG are 3-0 ATS but it's against weak competition in Rogue Warriors, Dominus, and Victory Five. They've been underdogs otherwise even if they were incorrectly priced as they have been all year. I love the Suning map spread in this spot. They're 5-2 ATS and OMG still have some inconsistencies from a macro and decision-making perspective that make me question their ability to take this without losing a game. 

OMG are sweet but they might fall victim to the "underdog special" here

Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Suning +172 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +359 (0.1 units)

Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -110 (0.275 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +101 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Total OVER 28.5 @ +134 (0.1 units)

Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -110 (0.275 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +104 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Total OVER 28.5 @ +138 (0.1 units)

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TOP eSports -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
vs
Team WE +236 (+1.5 @ -141)

Lineups:

TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, Photic, QiuQiu
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

Trends:
TOP are 7-2 as favorites, 3-6 ATS
WE are 2-3 as underdogs, 2-3 ATS 
(the same wins were the covers)


This is suddenly an interesting matchup because TOP have shown that they're willing to experiement. This doesn't mean they'll continue to do so especially with eStar losing this morning and opening up a chance for TOP to move up the standings to secure a quarterfinal seed in playoffs. 

Team WE have had off since Thursday's awful 1-2 loss to LGD Gaming. The break couldn't have come at a better time. With losses to LGD and BiliBili back-to-back things could have spiraled out of control quickly.

The question here becomes how much do we think TOP will choose to experiement and how much of an impact does the few does off have for Team WE? TOP have dropped games in back-to-back series against Rogue Warriors and Suning. Conceivably they could do the same here but when you look at their previous games, three 2-0 sweeps against OMG, JDG, and Dominus, suddenly that angle looks less appealing. 

I think Team WE are one of the strangest teams to handicap in the world right now. They're simultaneously overrated and underated. Their rate statistics and economy metrics are above average for their win rate but they haven't beaten a team higher than themselves in the standings (9th). They haven't even taken a game off of those better teams which makes me think there's some noise in the numbers especially given their ridiculous, league-leading average margin of victory. When Team WE win, they do so with a ton of kills and a ton of money. I definitely lean more to the said of Team WE being a bit fraudulent than not. 

Even with the time off for WE and TOP playing Monday I'm taking TOP here. With eStar losing combined with the wake up call of dropping that game because of the goofy "bouncey castle" draft they tried I think they'll be nothing but business in this spot and demolish WE.

TOP have below average kills per win on the season but their trending number is well above average. Team WE are just below average in kills per loss on the season but their past six are way above average even if you exclude the 22 kill outlier. The books have accounted for this however with a 27.5 total in this game so I'm staying away even though the plus odds under 27.5 is tempting.

I'll take a shot at the plus odds on all the kill spreads under TOP's AMOV of 9.47 although it should be noted that TOP's AMOV numbers are very up and down.

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +101 (1 unit)

Map 1:
Kill Spread: TOP -7.5 kills @ +108 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: TOP -8.5 kills @ +126 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: TOP -9.5 kills @ +147 (0.2 units)

Map 2:
Kill Spread: TOP -7.5 kills @ +109 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: TOP -8.5 kills @ +128 (0.2 units)

(5 Dimes)

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LCK (Korea)


LCK Trends:
Favorites are 51-24
Favorite Spreads are 30-45
Underdog 2-0's: 11 out of 75


Week 8 - Day 1


Griffin +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
vs
DAMWON -535 (-1.5 @ -141)

Trends:
Griffin are 2-12 as underdogs, 8-6 ATS
DAMWON are 7-2 as favorites, 4-4 ATS
DAMWON are 5-0 as favorites of -234 or longer, 4-1 ATS

DAMWON look like they've finally stepped into the 2020 LOL year and admitted they need to play the game differently. I don't want to overreact to them defeating T1 when T1 gave them Senna back-to-back games but DAMWON have looked really good. And to beat T1 is an achievement regardless. 

Griffin continue to show flashes but have still lost every match besides their most recent one to APK who is still not good even if they draft intelligently. Griffin easily could have been 2-0'd in that series as well after that wild game one. 

Don't get cute here. The OVER on the kill total is based on a blend of trending and season long totals in kills per win/loss for both.

I did a more detailed writeup for The Action Network so head on over there to check it out when it's up

I got these earlier in the week but they're still relatively close

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -135 (1.35 units)

Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -114 (0.285 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +105 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -7.5 kills @ -103 (0.206 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -8.5 kills @ +126 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -9.5 kills @ +161 (0.2 units)

Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -112 (0.28 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +105 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -7.5 kills @ +101 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -8.5 kills @ +130 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -9.5 kills @ +166 (0.2 units)

(5Dimes)

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Gen.G -1408 (-1.5 @ -260)

vs
APK Prince +593 (+1.5 @ +172)

Trends:
Gen.G are 12-3 as favorites, 9-6 ATS
APK are 5-9 as underdogs, 7-7 ATS

I know people are getting excited about APK but this is Gen.G. There's a chance they experiement like T1 did the other day but with the ability to secure a finals berth with another win or two and T1 squandering their chance at catching up, you can bet they'll be up for this one.

Again, don't get cute. Gen.G won the first matchup between these two in just over 50 total minutes. 

Comically, APK's team total is a hilariously low 6.5 but they've gone under this total in 9 of their 19 losses so it's near bettable but unfortunately not.

We're going with the under kill totals and Gen.G first blood. While first blood % isn't necessarily always an accurate indicator, somewhat like turnovers in football, the spread of 74% (Gen.G's rate) vs the implied odds of just under 61% is a nice edge.

Map 1:
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -156 (1.56 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 20.5 @ -114 (0.285 units)

Map 2:
Prop: Gen.G first blood @ -156 (1.56 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 20.5 @ -114 (0.285 units)


(5Dimes)

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LCS (North America)


Playoffs - Losers Bracket Round 1


100 Thieves +118 (+1.5 @ -193, +2.5 @ -654)
vs
Team Solo Mid -167 (-1.5 @ +135, -2.5 @ +345)

So this line jumped like crazy up to -234 on Nitrogen, -208 or so on 5Dimes and even higher in a few other places. 


The long and short of it is that I think TSM take this series. Over the course of the season they've had a few games that, had they just been slightly cleaner from a macro standpoint, they would have easily won. Jatt and MarkZ talked about it on JLXP quite a bit (listen if you haven't it's great). I more or less agree with Jatt that TSM should probably be a 12 win team if they were just a tiny bit cleaner. With extra time to prepare as well as a film advantage from watching 100 Thieves demolished by Cloud 9, I think TSM have a very reasonable chance to completely run over 100 Thieves.

The more I'm thinking about it this bracket presents unique opportunities for those in the losers' bracket who get to see the film on their upcoming opponent. In this case it's more a matter of I think TSM are significantly better than their pricing. The market has since adjusted to a more accurate number. I wouldn't take them at the new numbers but those that were on this last night we're enjoying our nice little CLV taste (cheers!).

From a strategic standpoint this just feels awful for 100 Thieves who have benefited greatly from improved performance from Ryoma. Bjergsen and Dardoch can completely take over a game and Brokenblade is one of the few top laners that I'd trust to stand up to Ssumday, 100 Thieves' strongest asset. TSM only need minor improvements to be a significantly better team than most have them rated. I think if we see those adjustments that they're going to be a finals team.


Moneyline: TSM -152 (3.04 units)
Spread: TSM -1.5 maps @ +140 (1 unit)
Spread: TSM -2.5 maps @ +359 (0.25 units)

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Other Leagues



none yet



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Parlays:

Parlay (3): GenG -1.5 maps + DAMWON -1.5 maps + Vici ML @ +215 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (3): GenG -1.5 maps + DAMWON -1.5 maps + TOP ML @ +197 (0.5 unit)

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