Friday, April 3, 2020

April 4th: LCK, LEC, LCS



April 3rd Recap:


LPL: 13 - 7 (+2.1505 units)

LCK: 17 - 0  (+4.156 units)


LEC: 1 - 3 (-1.905 units)

Live: 0 - 2 (-5.24 units)

Parlays: 1 - 0 (+0.57 units)


Total:  32 - 12 (-0.2685 units)



Dominus/EDG (no action)

Game one was a clinic by EDG but game two probably would have gone the way of Dominus had they not completely botched a dive in the bottom lane around 14:20. Assuming that went well OR they walked away they could had maintained a good position with two drakes in tow to go for a soul win. Glad I stuck to parlaying the moneyline.

Victory 5/Invictus (Net: -0.004)

I'll tell you what, Victory Five were way more competitive in this series than I thought they'd be. It actually wasn't quite as bad a blowout as you'd think looking at the box scores. Perhaps a sign for the future to maybe take their huge kill spreads. We just barely missed being profitable in this spot but the idea was there.


RNG/eStar (Net: +2.1545)

So many plays in this match looked like RNG were reading eStar like a book. It's almost as if they're predictable as all hell .... (insert thinking emoji). There were also situations where you could see eStar's blind faith in fighting bite them in the ass. Constantly looking for more punished them. I'd just like to thank RNG and Vici to a lesser extent, for being the adults in the room and telling this eStar team to eat their vegetables before they eat dessert. It will help eStar improve and it certainly helped the bankroll.

Sandbox/Gen.G (no action)

Sandbox were surprisingly competitive in this series as well this time with the combination of Summit and Punch as the top/jungle. Noted moving forward. I really just love the way Gen.G play the game and inparticular how they draft. They never take huge risks because they never put themselves into a situation where they have to. It's always safe/solid blind picks, counters only when it fits a composition, and they're always well-rounded. They don't shy away from fights but they don't force without reason either. Super disciplined.

Damwon/Afreeca (Net: +3.146)

Game one was a bit of a clown fiesta. DAMWON still do a lot of really stupid shit that will get punished against better teams but it looks like Nuguri is finally embracing the fact that he doesn't need to be on a carry to win games of LOL. Showmaker has been much more like his 2019 self in the past few series as well. Afreeca were... well read my tirade from yesterday because it pertains to today as well.

Griffin/T1 (Net: +1.01)

This was a really out of character day for T1. They just looked off. Maybe it's burnout or something but Faker had a few plays that clearly looked like he just wasn't thinking them through. I wouldn't call it disrespect just an "off day." They still ended up taking care of business for the W and as predicted tend to win close. Anytime we can get big kill spreads vs T1 we want them.

G2 / MAD Lions (Net: -7.145u)

Well... ok so there's a lot to unpack with this one. I tweeted out a ton about it so I'd encourage you to check that out. I'll just briefly mention that most of this was two sizeable live bets, one after the game one loss and game two draft, and another after the game five draft. MAD Lions played far beyond even optimistic expectations today. Even for a team I expected to be good by this time they exceeded expectation. That said... G2 won game five and int'd (threw it away). They could have won this game before the dragon soul was an issue but the fact that they let MAD get that win condition going and didn't get at least one of the dragons with their lead is where they lost this match. Even still, they nearly won. 

I'd talk about Caps on Ziggs not using an auto attack and instead throwing a satchel charge (it doesnt work on the nexus, he should know that) but the truth of the matter is that it shouldn't have come down to that play to begin with.

This was an outstanding series and outrageously entertaining. Back and forth in the games, multiple styles, different looks, draft leverage being utilized. G2 just clowned around a little too much in game five. I'm not concerned for G2 at all although Caps was fairly weak in the series overall even exempting the Ziggs debacle. I still expect G2 to win Europe but their road will be much more difficult now.


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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS! 
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.Every so often somebody will get them shortly before game time. Do you research.

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The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top or you can DM me on Twitter if you prefer crypto or other means.

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CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!

Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


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LPL (China)


The LPL is taking the day off tomorrow for a day of mourning for COVID-19 victims. The three matches will be moved to April 20th adding one more day to the season. 



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LCK (Korea)




Week 7 - Day 3



APK Prince +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
vs
KT Rolster -478 (-1.5 @ -123)

KT Rolster are coming off of a loss to a very good DragonX team that people were underrating because of a rough start after the break. We should not hold it against KT that they were 2-0'd. APK are coming off of back to back victories that, if I'm being honest, were spoon-fed to them. Afreeca were embarassingly bad against them. APK just sort of existed on the map and took what Afreeca gave to them. Sandbox was similar.

This APK team is not good. They're a good drafting team but their execution and individual abilities are still lacking. They aren't winning many games that aren't handed directly to them. KT Rolster are a smart, savvy veteran team. that have won six of their last seven series. 

I'm going to lay the -1.5 here. KT dropped a game to last place Griffin earlier this week but it was also the single best game Griffin have played by a mile this season. It happens sometimes. KT are good and most importantly, intelligent. They aren't going to just hand you a lead you've got to take it. APK haven't really done that against anybody since before the break. 

APK haven't lost by less than 9 kills in their past 9 losses. As a matter of fact, they've lost by 9 or fewer kills in only three of their losses this season one of which was a loss with a kill lead that skews this number a tad. Without that outlier they'd have the worst AMOD in the LCK. 

KT Rolster have the highest margin of defeat (10.55) and the shortest average game time in the LCK and with a playoff race tightening up as DAMWON appears to be shaping into form, they'll want to take care of business here. Shop around because there was a lot of variance in this line but I found some juicy numbers over at 5D.

We're getting great value because KT are coming off of an 0-2 loss but it was to a good team. Systems might say it was a mediocre loss because DragonX were coming off of losses themselves but also to really good teams.

I love KT to 2-0 this in commanding fashion so we're going to take the spread and get some more exposure on other props and kill spreads. I know the time total is juiced up but I see value until the -170 range given that KT win and lose quickly. APK have a few outlier games skewing their average time total including a 54 and 43 minute game in their past six series. Almost every other game has gone under 32:00. 


Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ -101 (2.02 units)

Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -154 (0.77 units)
Kill Spread: KT Rolster -6.5 kills @ +105 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: KT Rolster -7.5 kills @ +137 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: KT Rolster -8.5 kills @ +179 (0.2 units)

Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -137 (0.685 units)
Kill Spread: KT Rolster -6.5 kills @ +106 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: KT Rolster -7.5 kills @ +137 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: KT Rolster -8.5 kills @ +178 (0.2 units)
(all at 5Dimes)

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Hanwha Life -123 (+1.5 @ -350)
vs
Sandbox -123 (-1.5 @ +236)

Hanwha are coming off of a surprisingly competitive series (at least for a couple games) against T1 last week before getting dominated by DAMWON Thursday. 

Sandbox had one of the worst performances I'd seen this season in any league against APK last week but took a game off of DRX and played a more competitive series than it looked like in the box score against Gen.G this morning. 

Sandbox have now played in three of the past four days of LCK action, albeit with a few off days on Monday and Tuesday. 

Both of these teams have shown flashes of brilliance and incompetence this season so it's tough to really get a good feel for this one. Sandbox should be a better team than they are but Hanwha Life have done absolutely nothing outside of a few spike performances. The economic metrics heavily favor Sandbox and I have to think that with Summit back in the lineup that having the best player in the series should help. 

Hanwha Life won the last meeting 2-0 prior to the break. 

Other than that god awful performance against APK, Sandbox have actually been trending slightly better even with the musical chairs in the top/jungle positions. I have them between -140 and -150 favorites in this spot as long as Summit starts. Lonely has been a net minus player even if the team overall performed decently with him in the lineup. Part of me also thinks that the benching of Summit and OnFleek had to have lit a fire under their asses. These two were a wrecking crew last season.

I like Sandbox for a small amount despite the number difference here because it's tough to trust both of these teams. Hanwha have the worst margin of defeat in the LCK dropping their past seven losses by double digit kills. Sandbox have won by 8 or more kills in 11 of their 14 wins. We'll take a stab at the plus odds kill spreads for games one and two knowing that there's a good chance this goes to three games (which we're not paying for). 

The LCK is averaging a hair under 34:00 and both of these teams much less than that I'm going to take the under 35:00 but there is some noise in these numbers since it's mostly teams blowing out these two bringing the numbers down. Still they're averaging under 35:00 if you remove the big outliers. Given those can happen and that these two teams should be fairly competitive we'll limit it to win a quarter instead of a heavier wager due to the larger range of outcomes.

Moneyline: Sandbox -120 (0.3 units)
Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +238 (0.1 units)

Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 35:00 @ -137 (0.3425 units)
Kill Spread: Sandbox -2.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Sandbox -3.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Sandbox -4.5 kills @ +144 (0.1 units)

Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 35:00 @ -133 (0.3325 units)
Kill Spread: Sandbox -2.5 kills @ +106 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Sandbox -3.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)

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Gen.G -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
vs
DragonX +197 (+1.5 @ -167)

This is just a classic underdog spot for me. Gen.G look outstanding but outside of a few weird series, DragonX have also looked excellent. This is a spot you see pretty frequently. Top tier teams where one of them is heavily favored just because they have a better record. While Gen.G are the better, more consistent team, measuring both of these teams on a spectrum I'd have both of their ceilings in similar places. 


All of that is a round-a-bout way of saying I don't think Gen.G should be favored by this much. I have these teams much closer to even money. If both are playing at their best level they're even. Gen.G have just had a higher floor meaning a smaller range of outcomes. Give me the dogs!

I like the under time again when you have two excellent teams that know how to close and snowball a lead but at a juiced 34:00 instead of 35:00 I'll pass. It probably still goes under that total just not worth the juice.


Spread: DragonX +1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: DragonX +197 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ +444 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)

Map 1: 
Kill Spread: DRX +3.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DRX +2.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DRX +1.5 kills @ +142 (0.1 units)

Map 2: 
Kill Spread: DRX +3.5 kills @ +106 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DRX +2.5 kills @ +124 (0.1 units)

Kill Spread: DRX +1.5 kills @ +145 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)

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LEC (Europe)




Playoffs Round 1


I wrote on all of these games over at The Action Network. I'd encourage you to check that article out. I'll just put my actual picks here for bookkeeping.

Fnatic vs Origen

This line has gone from -193 to -260.

Fnatic have had Origen's number and stylistically are a nightmare for them. To me there's almost no way Fnatic lose this series. 

It's why it's important to get ahead of the numbers.

I'll be reevaluating this one again tomorrow morning so check back.

Spread: Fnatic -1.5 maps @ -119 (1.19 units)

Map 1:
Kill Spread: FNC -5.5 kills @ +115 (0.2 units)


Map 2:

Kill Spread: FNC -5.5 kills @ +131 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -4.5 kills @ +104 (0.2 units)

Map 3:

Kill Spread: FNC -5.5 kills @ +131 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -4.5 kills @ +106 (0.2 units)


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LCS (North America)




Playoffs Round 1






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Other Leagues



none yet



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Parlays:

LCK "Exacta" Parlay (3):
KT -1.5 maps + SB ML + DRX ML @ +945 (0.1 units)

Saturday Morning "Exacta" Parlay (4):
 KT -1.5 maps + SB ML + DRX ML + FNC -1.5 maps @ +1823 (0.1 units)


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