Friday, April 10, 2020

April 11th: LPL, LCK, LEC, LCS




April 10th Recap:



LPL:  4 - 10 (-0.8595 units)


LCK: 3 - 6 (-2.555 units)


LEC: 6 - 3 (+2.66 units)

Live: 0 - 1 (-1.5 units)

Parlay: (+0.75 units)


Total: 13 - 20 (-1.5045 units)




V5/Dominus (Net: -1.50)


Vici/FunPlus (Net: -1.54)


BiliBili/TOP (Net: +2.1805)


DAMWON/DragonX (Net: +0.1)


T1 / KT Rolster (Net: -4.155)


Rogue/Origen (Net: +2.66)




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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)


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LPL (China)

LPL Trends:
(106 matches as of 4/10)

Favorites are 68-38 straight up (64.15%)

Underdog spreads (+1.5) are 64-42 (60.38%)
Underdog sweeps (2-0 win): 20 out of 106 matches (18.87%)

In the past two weeks (Week 5 Day 1 on March 30th through today)

32 matches
Favorites are 19-13 (59.375%)
Underdog Spreads (+1.5) are 21-11 (65.625%)
Underdog sweeps (2-0 win): 7 out of 32 matches (21.875%)

While it feels like it's been a really bizarre week, it's only slightly above the numbers for the season. Perhaps the bigger shocker is just who has been losing and how they've been losing that we're reacting to. 


I wrote more on this here I'd encourage you to check it out




Week 6 - Day 6


LGD Gaming +172 (+1.5 @ -181)
vs
OMG -260 (-1.5 @ +123)

Lineups:

LGD:  Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold

Trends:

LGD are 3-7 as underdogs, 7-3 ATS (lost 0-2 to Vici, eStar, Dominus)
OMG are 4-0 as favorites, 4-0 ATS (vs Suning, V5, Dominus, Rogue Warriors)

We can sit here and talk about the RNG no-show but as I rewatch this series bit by bit I don't think people are giving credit to LGD for doing one of the few things they do well which is get ahead early. In the current state of the game it can be extremely potent to get the ball rolling and Peanut has been excellent at it. What LGD do afterwards is anybody's guess but this team can get a lead as well as anybody. That manifests in their 7-3 ATS record. It makes sense doesn't it?

I've criticized OMG for their lack of consistent macro this season. I like this team quite a bit and their players are tremendously talented they just have consistency issues, particularly from behind in games. 


I don't think LGD are a good team but combining OMG's inconsistencies with LGD's preferred method of play makes this feel like a ripe opportunity for yet another upset. 


A lot of lapses in concentration has made otherwise clean teams distinctly not so in recent weeks and LGD are absolutely the kind of team to thrive in that environment. LGD have had double digit kills in their past three losses and are above league average at 9.6 kills per loss albeit in spikes. OMG are one of the lowest kill teams in the LPL but LGD are kind of like a diet off-label version of Invictus in that they, Peanut specifically, is going to bring you into a chaotic game whether you like it or not. Given the fatigue angle as well as LGD having nothing to lose and looking much better recently for it, I think we could see a bloody bout here.


Spread: LGD +1.5 maps @ -181 (1.81 units)(Nitrogen)

Moneyline: LGD +172 (0.5 units) (Nitrogen)
Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +420 (0.25 units) (5Dimes)

Map 1:

Kill Total: OVER 24.5 kills @ -115 (0.575 units)

Map 2:

Kill Total: OVER 24.5 kills @ -132 (0.66 units)
(5Dimes)

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eStar -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
vs
Team WE +160 (+1.5 @ -207)

Lineups:

eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

Trends:

eStar are 5-4 as favorites, 3-6 ATS
eStar have lost their past three matches as favorites (JDG, RNG, Vici)
eStar lost their past two series 0-2 as the favorite

WE are 3-3 as underdogs, 3-3 ATS (same series)

WE have won their previous two series as the underdog

Both of these teams are trending opposite directions in terms of public perception. eStar have lost three straight after their ridiculous 9-1 start to the season. I'm not sure people realize that losing to Vici, RNG, and JDG isn't a bad thing it just means maybe you're not elite as you once appeared to be as we predicted here. 


WE are coming off of an underdog victory against TOP eSports but also dropped the series prior to LGD. All season long WE have been a classic middle of the table team. Able to sometimes punch up to the big dogs and clearly better than the rest of the bottom half of the league but not immune to punting games or matches to the bad teams either. 


WE only have two victories over "good" teams, one against Vici back in early March and then this TOP win the other day. This same team also has losses to LGD and BiliBili. I think they're pretty decent but I'm not entirely buying it. 


 eStar looked pretty good in their loss to JDG and they showed me things I had not seen from them all season long. Weirdly, I have a renewed faith in eStar because my primary concern with this team was their lack of strategic depth or willingness to do anything else than they were doing. They have other tools and they're still lightning quick to the punch which is what you have to be to beat Team WE. TOP weren't. 


eStar would have been -500 favorites last week in this matchup, why the overcorrection because they lost to some good teams?


I think the first thing a lot of people thought with this series was to take the over in kill total but with the number set at 29.5 I'm just going to stay away.


Moneyline: eStar -182 (1.82 units)

Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +172 (0.5 units)

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Rogue Warriors +543 (+1.5 @ +147)
vs
RNG -1136 (-1.5 @ -207)

Lineups:

RW: Crazy, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming

Trends:
RNG are 4-3 as favorites, 2-5 ATS

Rogue Warriors are 4-5 as underdogs, 6-3 ATS

Rogue Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances as underdogs
(vs WE, BiliBili, TOP, Vici)

Did a more detailed writeup on this matchup over at The Action Network 



Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ +150 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +553 (0.25 units)
Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +819 (0.1 units)
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LCK (Korea)

LCK Trends:

(81 matches as of 4/10)

Favorites are 55-26 straight up (67.9%)

Underdog spreads (+1.5) are 49-32 (60.49%)
Underdog sweeps (2-0 win): 13 out of 81 matches (16.05%)


In the past two weeks (Week 7 Day 1 on April 1st through today)
21 matches
Favorites are 12-9 (57.14%)
Underdog Spreads (+1.5) are 15-6 (71.43%)
Underdog sweeps (2-0 win): 6 out of 21 matches (28.57%)

Obviously Korea has a smaller sample size but we can see that in Korea the dogs are, in fact, barking loudly. 

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Week 8 - Day 4


APK Prince -123 (+1.5 @ -350)
vs
Hanwha Life -123 (-1.5 @ +236)

Trends:
Hanwha are 1-2 as favorites, 0-3 ATS
Hanwha have lost 0-2 in their past two appearances as favorites (APK, KT)

APK are 5-10 as underdogs, 8-7 ATS

APK are 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances as underdogs

If you shop around you'll see Hanwha are slight favorites. This is a tricky series. Hanwha have had a few highlight spots like beating DragonX and T1 the first time and taking a game off of T1 the second time but other than that have been dreadfully bad this season with their only other wins against Griffin and Sandbox. 


APK Prince have been remarkably consistent even if the results to show it. Their intelligent drafting and disciplined in-game decision making have been surprisingly good. APK have kind of been the FlyQuest of Korea except the level of competition is significantly higher .Stud carry Hybrid is the only particularly standout player other than Ikssu's strange champion pool but generally the players on this team are ... well, they're bad. The thing is that matters a lot less in season ten than it has in other seasons. They understand how to play the game right now and that's given them some wins against significantly better team that have disrespected them.


Just eye-testing this thing is an easy APK play and I actually think this is a situation where you do exactly that. APK dominated a game and then still won a competitive second game in the first meeting between these two. Hanwha are the more talented team but are much less consistent and I'm not entirely sure why they're favored in this situation.


APK have been landing first blood and first tower at a surprisingly high clip that the books haven't adjusted for while Hanwha hover around 40% in both. We're also going to try to get some value playing the plus odds short kill spreads as well as the moneyline in this spot to try to eke out some value.


Moneyline: APK Prince -108 (0.54 units)

Spread: APK Prince -1.5 maps @ +263 (0.25 units)

Map 1:

Kill Spread: APK -1.5 kills @ +116 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: APK -2.5 kills @ +137 (0.25 units)
Prop: APK first blood @ -127 (0.635 units)
Prop: APK first tower @ -118 (0.295 units)

Map 2:

Kill Spread: APK -0.5 kills @ +107 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: APK -1.5 kills @ +126 (0.25 units)
Prop: APK first blood @ -123 (0.615 units)
Prop: APK first tower @ -122 (0.305 units)
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KT Rolster -260 (-1.5 @ +123)

vs
Sandbox +172 (+1.5 @ -181)

Trends:

KT Rolster are 3-2 as favorites, 1-4 ATS
KT are 0-2 ATS in their past two appearances as favorites (APK, Griffin)

Sandbox are 2-7 as underdogs, 4-5 ATS

Sandbox have lost 0-2 in their past two appearances as underdogs (T1, Gen.G)


Did a more detailed writeup on this matchup over at The Action Network 


Moneyline: KT Rolster -250 (2.5 units)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +129 (1 unit)
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LEC (Europe)



Playoffs
Round 2 - Winners' Bracket


Fnatic -535 (-1.5 @ -193, -2.5 @ +172)
vs
MAD Lions +329 (+1.5 @ +135, +2.5 @ -260)

Trends:

Favorites are 69-25 in the LEC (playoffs + regular season)
Favorites are 2-2 in playoffs in the LEC

MAD Lions straight up beat G2. While I think G2 were surprisingly conservative in their drafting they absolutely earned the victory but let's keep in mind that MAD were still a single auto attack on the nexus away from losing that best of five still...


Fnatic look better right now than they did going into the world championships last year where I thought they had top 4 upside. They're able to attack you from so many different angles and they've been absolutely dominant in the draft with a lot of creative solutions to common metagame problems. 


I like MAD Lions and their improvement but Fnatic outclass them across the board.


Instead of taking the FNC map spreads we're going to try to get some more value by taking kill spreads. I also think these two teams are way more likely to "throw themselves at each other" so I'll be taking the over in kill total on each of the first three maps.



Map 1: 

Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -6.5 kills @ -105 (0.525 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -7.5 kills @ +110 (0.25 units)

Map 2:

Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -6.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -7.5 kills @ +102 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -8.5 kills @ +122 (0.25 units)

Map 3:

Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -120 (0.6 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -6.5 kills @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Spread: FNC -7.5 kills @ +108 (0.25 units)

Although I'd recommend checking out my friend and guest on the podcast this week Josh Roberts @RobertsNumber49 writeup on this over at The Action Network as well


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LCS (North America)



Playoffs

Evil Geniuses +593 (+1.5 @ +246)

vs
Cloud 9 -1408 (-1.5 @ -369)

Talked at length about this one on the podcast. Josh also did a great writeup on it that I share a lot of the same sentiments on over at The Action Network as well 

The long story short is that I think Evil Geniuses can get a game here. On the show we said that AT THEIR CEILING Evil Geniuses are maybe 40-50% to take this series. Given the current metagame and Evil Geniuses steady improvement I think it's reasonable to expect them to get a game or two. The rest is value based on the odds we're given which are obscene.

C9's trending AMOV has been moving steadily downward as the season went on which is to be expected but it was rather drastic dropping to 8.16 from 10.78 season long. EG have also been rather fiesty in most of their losses so combined with the extra preparation time, trajectory of these two teams, and the tendency for these games to get really bloody, I like the OVER kill totals as well as the EG spreads. If they're bloody I think EG have a shot, if the end up more controlled and low scoring I love the kill spreads.

 Spread: EG +2.5 maps @ -108 (1.08 units)
Spread: EG +1.5 maps @ +333 (0.25 units)
Moneyline: EG +778 (0.2 units)
Spread: EG -1.5 maps @ +1001 (0.1 units)

Prop: Exact Cloud 9 3-1 @ +179 (0.2 units)

Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)
Kill Spread: EG +6.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +7.5 kills @ +105 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +8.5 kills @ -123 (0.123 units)
Kill Spread: EG +9.5 kills @ -159 (0.159 units)
Kill Spread: EG +10.5 kills @ -204 (0.204 units)

Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)
Kill Spread: EG +6.5 kills @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +7.5 kills @ +104 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +8.5 kills @ -125 (0.125 units)
Kill Spread: EG +9.5 kills @ -161 (0.161 units)
Kill Spread: EG +10.5 kills @ -204 (0.204 units)

Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
Kill Spread: EG +6.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +7.5 kills @ +102 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: EG +8.5 kills @ -128 (0.128 units)
Kill Spread: EG +9.5 kills @ -164 (0.164 units)
Kill Spread: EG +10.5 kills @ -208 (0.208 units)

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Other Leagues



none yet



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Parlays:

Parlay (2): FNC -1.5 maps + Evil Geniuses +2.5 maps @ +206 (0.5 units)

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