April 17th Recap:
LPL: 6 - 7 (-2.5275 units)
Parlays: -6.095 units
(some pending G2 tmw)
Total: -8.6225 units)
LNG / WE (Net: -0.68)
Dominus / JDG (Net: +1.955)
Invictus / EDG (Net: -3.8025)
EDG probably should have had the second game in this series. They had a lead with superior scaling before Invictus took one of the most Invictus fights ever forcing a chase down top that ended up in this weird clown fiesta of a fight. They always seem to make these things work.
This busted a bunch of our parlays too but we're still in good shape for the JDG + G2 ones for tomorrow which is good and should recoup a little less than half of these losses back.
WE laying a complete egg against LNG and Chenlun17 who actually looked really good in this series was the bigger suprise on the day. People are going to knock the Nocturne mid pick but the truth is there have been a lot of players with champion kiddie pools getting away with it this season, it's not a bad pick in that spot either it just one of those picks that looks terrible when it doesn't work (just ask DanDan). Really though, Teacherma and the stylistic evolution of Team WE are what got them here to begin with. Sometimes this style implodes. Don't overreact to it. And don't forget, Teacherma got famous and got this job by playing Nocturne mid so can you really fault them or him for going to it here?
--------------------------
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
------------------------
LCK (Korea)
Playoff Gauntlet
Round 1
#5 DAMWON Gaming +113 (+1.5 @ -287)
vs
#4 KT Rolster -150 (-1.5 @ +197)
Round 1
#5 DAMWON Gaming +113 (+1.5 @ -287)
vs
#4 KT Rolster -150 (-1.5 @ +197)
1000+ words over there, enjoy!
Save my wrists some work and support some sweet content. Not to shill but ny editor who makes me look all wonderful and professional over there Michael Leboff (@TheBigLeebowski) wrote up an AWESOME piece on Professional Darts which, by the way is one of the hypest things you'll watch I promise if you're looking for something a little different so check that out while you're reading all sorts of reaons for this selection.
Moneyline: KT Rolster -147 (2.94 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ -122 (0.915 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 20.5 @ +100 (0.25 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ -133 (0.9975 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 20.5 @ -110 (0.275 units)
(5Dimes)
LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 6
Trends:
Vici are 3-4 as favorites, 1-6 ATS
... it's V5
Ok so I'm going to keep this short and sweet since I've typed a ton already today and the strain is real.
Vici aren't mathematically eliminated but they no longer control their own fate like most of the 6-9 teams. I could see Vici putting up a lackluster performance here and V5 are weird enough that even though it's somewhat predictable at this point, I could see a draft botch or just a game getting way from them before they reel it back.
I think V5 put the final decorations on the worst season in professional history since moving to league formats. For comparison, Jin Air went 3-35 in games during Summer 2019...
I can't bring myself to bet V5... but I will take their kill spreads.
I'll also be on the OVER kill totals in this game. While these teams have a modest 26.1 season long combined kill+death total, their trending totals are significnatly higher. Considering Vici played against a somewhat bloody schedule we'll shave that down a tade and even still our 29.55 trending number is pretty nuts. I have this total a shade over 28.5 with a moderate amount of variance in outcomes. With a total set at 27.5 I'll take the overs.
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -108 (0.54 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +108 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -123 (0.3075 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -103 (0.515 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +115 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -147 (0.3675 units)
----
Victory Five +716 (+1.5 maps @ +197)
vs
Vici Gaming -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -303)
Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, y4, Clx
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
vs
Vici Gaming -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -303)
Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, Mole, y4, Clx
Vici: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
Trends:
Vici are 3-4 as favorites, 1-6 ATS
... it's V5
Ok so I'm going to keep this short and sweet since I've typed a ton already today and the strain is real.
Vici aren't mathematically eliminated but they no longer control their own fate like most of the 6-9 teams. I could see Vici putting up a lackluster performance here and V5 are weird enough that even though it's somewhat predictable at this point, I could see a draft botch or just a game getting way from them before they reel it back.
I think V5 put the final decorations on the worst season in professional history since moving to league formats. For comparison, Jin Air went 3-35 in games during Summer 2019...
I can't bring myself to bet V5... but I will take their kill spreads.
I'll also be on the OVER kill totals in this game. While these teams have a modest 26.1 season long combined kill+death total, their trending totals are significnatly higher. Considering Vici played against a somewhat bloody schedule we'll shave that down a tade and even still our 29.55 trending number is pretty nuts. I have this total a shade over 28.5 with a moderate amount of variance in outcomes. With a total set at 27.5 I'll take the overs.
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -108 (0.54 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +108 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -123 (0.3075 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -103 (0.515 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +115 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ -147 (0.3675 units)
----
Rogue Warriors +457 (+1.5 maps @ +135)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -885 (-1.5 maps @ -194)
Lineups:
RW: Crazy, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
Trends:
FPX are 11-3 as favorites, 7-7 ATS
FPX are 4-1, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
RW are 5-6 as underdogs, 7-4 ATS
RW are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
Rogue Warriors actually have one of the better shots at stealing the 8th playoff spot but it's a tall order against FPX. As much as people like this RW team because they're ATS darlings and one of the fiestier underdogs in the league, I just don't think it's happening here. Most of RW's underdog wins, similar to LGD, are against teams that aren't proactive on the map ("lane kingdom" teams). FPX aren't that, especially with GimGoon in the lineup.
FPX roll
FPX's trending KPW which is significantly higher than their under-average season rate but RW actually have a really low KPL number if you excluse the three gigantic outliers from earlier in the season. Excluding those its a measly 6.94. I have this total projected at ~26.3 but it's got a lot of upside especially since FPX seem much more willing to play more aggressively with GimGoon in the lineup. They've been a lot more comfortable. This is also Rogue Warriors' last stand so they'll be throwing the kitchen sink at this one.
FPX have won five of their past six by double digits (trending AMOV 11.66) and their season long rate is 10.6. RW's have lost four of their past six by double digits (including one by 23) for an average of 12 and a season long rate of 11.58. I'll stick to plus odds at this high numbers.
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -175 (1.75 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 kills @ -102 (0.51 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 kills @ +117 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +102 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +132 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -11.5 kills @ +159 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 kills @ -120 (0.6 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 kills @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +106 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +139 (0.2 units)
----
Royal Never Give Up -310 (-1.5 maps @ +118)
vs
Suning Gaming +222 (+1.5 maps @ -167)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
SN: Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
Trends:
RNG are 5-5 as favorites, 3-7 ATS
RNG are 2-3, 2-3 ATS with two 0-2 losses in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs DOM, LNG, RW, LGD, V5) EASY SCHEDULE!!!
Suning are 4-5 as underdogs, 6-3 ATS
Suning are 1-4, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
I wrote a bit on this one over at SGPN but the long story short is I've learned my lesson from TSM. If you put your good team and players in impossible positions in the draft this season it almost doesn't matter how good they are. Suning I've talked ad nauseum about being better than their record.
Normally I'd bet the bounce back spot for RNG here but look at the schedule of teams they've faced in their past five matches. All of those had their playoff spot on the line in fact it wasn't until WE lost this morning that their playoff spot was clinched.
Their drafts don't just show small mistakes in process, they have absolutely no idea the direction they want to take. If I see them draft Elise and they don't gank the one lane that is gankable I'm going to fly on over to China and coach them myself. (listen to this weeks podcast for my tirade on this topic...) I don't think they "just fix this" without bringing in a new coach to draft at this point. It shows me a fundamental lack of understanding for what champions do what and it's infuriating. Be more like FlyQuest. Keep it simple.
RNG should win but I don't trust them when they're drafting like idiots. You know what I do trust?
Ye Olde Underdog Special
Also, Suning aren't eliminated technically but more importantly showed signs of life in their win against Vici after losing game one. This team isn't mailing in their season!
I have this match total at 26.59 which is right about where the book has it so no plays there.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Suning +225 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +509 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
vs
FunPlus Phoenix -885 (-1.5 maps @ -194)
Lineups:
RW: Crazy, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
FPX: GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
Trends:
FPX are 11-3 as favorites, 7-7 ATS
FPX are 4-1, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
RW are 5-6 as underdogs, 7-4 ATS
RW are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
Rogue Warriors actually have one of the better shots at stealing the 8th playoff spot but it's a tall order against FPX. As much as people like this RW team because they're ATS darlings and one of the fiestier underdogs in the league, I just don't think it's happening here. Most of RW's underdog wins, similar to LGD, are against teams that aren't proactive on the map ("lane kingdom" teams). FPX aren't that, especially with GimGoon in the lineup.
FPX roll
FPX's trending KPW which is significantly higher than their under-average season rate but RW actually have a really low KPL number if you excluse the three gigantic outliers from earlier in the season. Excluding those its a measly 6.94. I have this total projected at ~26.3 but it's got a lot of upside especially since FPX seem much more willing to play more aggressively with GimGoon in the lineup. They've been a lot more comfortable. This is also Rogue Warriors' last stand so they'll be throwing the kitchen sink at this one.
FPX have won five of their past six by double digits (trending AMOV 11.66) and their season long rate is 10.6. RW's have lost four of their past six by double digits (including one by 23) for an average of 12 and a season long rate of 11.58. I'll stick to plus odds at this high numbers.
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -175 (1.75 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 kills @ -102 (0.51 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 kills @ +117 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +102 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +132 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -11.5 kills @ +159 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 kills @ -120 (0.6 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 kills @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -9.5 kills @ +106 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: FPX -10.5 kills @ +139 (0.2 units)
----
Royal Never Give Up -310 (-1.5 maps @ +118)
vs
Suning Gaming +222 (+1.5 maps @ -167)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
SN: Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
Trends:
RNG are 5-5 as favorites, 3-7 ATS
RNG are 2-3, 2-3 ATS with two 0-2 losses in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs DOM, LNG, RW, LGD, V5) EASY SCHEDULE!!!
Suning are 4-5 as underdogs, 6-3 ATS
Suning are 1-4, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
I wrote a bit on this one over at SGPN but the long story short is I've learned my lesson from TSM. If you put your good team and players in impossible positions in the draft this season it almost doesn't matter how good they are. Suning I've talked ad nauseum about being better than their record.
Normally I'd bet the bounce back spot for RNG here but look at the schedule of teams they've faced in their past five matches. All of those had their playoff spot on the line in fact it wasn't until WE lost this morning that their playoff spot was clinched.
Their drafts don't just show small mistakes in process, they have absolutely no idea the direction they want to take. If I see them draft Elise and they don't gank the one lane that is gankable I'm going to fly on over to China and coach them myself. (listen to this weeks podcast for my tirade on this topic...) I don't think they "just fix this" without bringing in a new coach to draft at this point. It shows me a fundamental lack of understanding for what champions do what and it's infuriating. Be more like FlyQuest. Keep it simple.
RNG should win but I don't trust them when they're drafting like idiots. You know what I do trust?
Ye Olde Underdog Special
Also, Suning aren't eliminated technically but more importantly showed signs of life in their win against Vici after losing game one. This team isn't mailing in their season!
I have this match total at 26.59 which is right about where the book has it so no plays there.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Suning +225 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +509 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
------------------------
LEC (Europe)
Losers' Bracket Finals
MAD Lions
vs
G2 eSports
For both the LCS and LEC today I'd point you in the direction of my colleague Josh Roberts (@RobertsNumber49) who did an outstanding writeup on both matches over at The Action Network.
I don't want to call MAD Lions fraudulent because they're not. They're a very good team but I want everyone to think back to the first time these teams met. MAD Lions played at an absolutely insane level relative to what we've seen from them. G2 were not particularly sharp. If Caps auto attacks the nexus G2 STILL would have won that series. We saw G2 completely dismantle Origen (fairly predictable) and MAD Lions up against another juggernaut in Fnatic. They were demolished.
I'm optimistic for MAD Lions in the Summer split but there's absolutely no way lightning strikes twice here. I'm heavily exposed on G2 and completely comfortable with it.
Instead of playing this straight up I'm attacking this through parlays with other plays. We saw a handful of them lose yesterday with EDG and WE but our JDG parlay is still alive. I'm going to add on Evil Geniuses as well. (see Parlay section)
Both of these teams have trending combined kill+death numbers in the high 30's (obviously aided by the series they played against each other) and are averaging near 29 between them for the entire season combined. On one hand you could think about G2 wanting to "take care of business" and the fact that the number at 32.5 is absurdly high but on the other hand G2 aren't exactly a team that "cleanly dispatches" their opposition. I could also legitimately see G2 running to score up in this series.
If we get a closer series than I'm anticipating the kill total will almost certainly be over, if G2 smash really decisively then I could see them running the score up in at least one or two of these games and G2 aren't a team that typically wins 22-4 or anything like that very frequently.
My numbers handicap this total at about 29.6 but I'm going against my numbers on this one. I'll be on the OVER,
G2 have one of the highest first blood rates of any team in the four major regions (80%+). MAD Lions had 39% during the regular season and just 50% in the playoffs. While first blood is a high variance proposition I think the number we're getting on G2 regardless of win or loss is good enough.
I won't be playing kill spreads in this matchup considering the wide range of outcomes G2 typically show but MAD Lions are probably the line of play if you're doing that. G2 play a lot of games that end with closer kill scores than the actual game lead would indicate.
Since I'm so heavily exposed to the moneyline and -1.5 in parlays I'm not going to add on to it. Instead I'll be playing this through props.
Spread: G2 -2.5 maps @ +166 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Prop: G2 first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Prop: G2 first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Prop: G2 first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)
------------------------
------------------------
MAD Lions
vs
G2 eSports
For both the LCS and LEC today I'd point you in the direction of my colleague Josh Roberts (@RobertsNumber49) who did an outstanding writeup on both matches over at The Action Network.
I don't want to call MAD Lions fraudulent because they're not. They're a very good team but I want everyone to think back to the first time these teams met. MAD Lions played at an absolutely insane level relative to what we've seen from them. G2 were not particularly sharp. If Caps auto attacks the nexus G2 STILL would have won that series. We saw G2 completely dismantle Origen (fairly predictable) and MAD Lions up against another juggernaut in Fnatic. They were demolished.
I'm optimistic for MAD Lions in the Summer split but there's absolutely no way lightning strikes twice here. I'm heavily exposed on G2 and completely comfortable with it.
Instead of playing this straight up I'm attacking this through parlays with other plays. We saw a handful of them lose yesterday with EDG and WE but our JDG parlay is still alive. I'm going to add on Evil Geniuses as well. (see Parlay section)
Both of these teams have trending combined kill+death numbers in the high 30's (obviously aided by the series they played against each other) and are averaging near 29 between them for the entire season combined. On one hand you could think about G2 wanting to "take care of business" and the fact that the number at 32.5 is absurdly high but on the other hand G2 aren't exactly a team that "cleanly dispatches" their opposition. I could also legitimately see G2 running to score up in this series.
If we get a closer series than I'm anticipating the kill total will almost certainly be over, if G2 smash really decisively then I could see them running the score up in at least one or two of these games and G2 aren't a team that typically wins 22-4 or anything like that very frequently.
My numbers handicap this total at about 29.6 but I'm going against my numbers on this one. I'll be on the OVER,
G2 have one of the highest first blood rates of any team in the four major regions (80%+). MAD Lions had 39% during the regular season and just 50% in the playoffs. While first blood is a high variance proposition I think the number we're getting on G2 regardless of win or loss is good enough.
I won't be playing kill spreads in this matchup considering the wide range of outcomes G2 typically show but MAD Lions are probably the line of play if you're doing that. G2 play a lot of games that end with closer kill scores than the actual game lead would indicate.
Since I'm so heavily exposed to the moneyline and -1.5 in parlays I'm not going to add on to it. Instead I'll be playing this through props.
Spread: G2 -2.5 maps @ +166 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Prop: G2 first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Prop: G2 first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)
Map 3:
Kill Total: OVER 32.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Prop: G2 first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)
------------------------
LCS (North America)
Losers' Bracket Finals
FlyQuest
vs
Evil Geniuses
Map 1:
Kill Spread: EG -4.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Spread: EG -5.5 kills @ +105 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: EG -4.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Spread: EG -5.5 kills @ +105 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Kill Spread: EG -4.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Spread: EG -5.5 kills @ +105 (0.5 units)
FlyQuest
vs
Evil Geniuses
Map 1:
Kill Spread: EG -4.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Spread: EG -5.5 kills @ +105 (0.5 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: EG -4.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Spread: EG -5.5 kills @ +105 (0.5 units)
Map 3:
Kill Spread: EG -4.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Spread: EG -5.5 kills @ +105 (0.5 units)
------------------------
Other Leagues
none yet
--------------------
Parlays:
(this G2+JDG one is still live from yesterday)
G2 + JDG
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -271 (2.71 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -106 (0.53 units)
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ -148 (0.74 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ +138 (0.5 units)
---
Parlay (2): G2 ML + Evil Geniuses ML @ -145 (2.9 units)
Parlay (2): G2 -1.5 maps + EG ML @ +104 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): G2 ML + EG -1.5 maps @ +124 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): G2 -1.5 maps + EG -1.5 maps @ +172 (0.5 units)
(this G2+JDG one is still live from yesterday)
G2 + JDG
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -271 (2.71 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -106 (0.53 units)
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ -148 (0.74 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ +138 (0.5 units)
---
Parlay (2): G2 ML + Evil Geniuses ML @ -145 (2.9 units)
Parlay (2): G2 -1.5 maps + EG ML @ +104 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): G2 ML + EG -1.5 maps @ +124 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): G2 -1.5 maps + EG -1.5 maps @ +172 (0.5 units)
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