April 2nd Recap:
LPL: 2 - 11 (-3.1965 units)
LCK: 2 - 7 (-1.13 units)
Parlays: 0 - 1 (-1.45 units)
Total: 4 - 19 (-5.7765 units)
LCK: 2 - 7 (-1.13 units)
Parlays: 0 - 1 (-1.45 units)
Total: 4 - 19 (-5.7765 units)
Team WE/LGD (Net: -0.965)
Team WE had a massive lead against an Olaf comp and managed to throw this game three on three separate ocassions. The separate gigantic throws... Reminded me to bring back an oldie but a goodie.
BiliBili/Rogue Warriors (Net: -2.415)
BiliBili drafted themselves into a hole in game one yet again. It's been a consistent problem this season. Game two their draft was fine, they had a lead and again just critical mistakes just like WE in game three. BiliBili seem to just get bullied around just like bad teams do. The other team can just step up threateningly and they wimp out. They have no concept of when they're ahead. It's so backwards from what this team used to be. I take back everything I said on the podcast. They're on fade alert.
TOP/Suning (Net: +0.1835)
This was a wild, bloody series. Good thing I had the under. For real though these games got out of hand. I don't know if it's just the scrim culture feel of playing competitive games from home but even for the LPL, and every other region for that matter, games have been pretty bloody across the board.
DragonX/Sandbox (Net: -2.4975)
Sandbox managed to get the ball rolling too hard and too fast early in game two and even with the overall great scaling on DRX, the lack of magic damage was just too easy to itemize against. This one is frustrating because DRX dominated the other two games. They've shown a propensity to drop a game, might need to consider that moving forward but they're still an outstanding team.
Afreeca / APK (Net: -0.9)
Afreeca are officially on dumpster fire watch. This was yet another series where APK did more or less nothing to earn the win and the enemy team just decided to give it to them. I understand that you want to put Kiin on a carry but drafting zero tank + Aphelios can't be the play Afreeca... it just can't. Also some of the decisions in this game had me literally spazzing out at home.
"What?.... WHAT?!.... WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Oh forget it I'm done..."
"What?.... WHAT?!.... WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Oh forget it I'm done..."
This was a humiliating performance for Afreeca. I know Fly has been on the decline but this series was so bad that it was grounds for benching. He should be thriving in this kind of mid game meta and he's just not because he's not a good player anymore. Kiin might run away with a game sometimes but Afreeca are a mess unless they make some drastic changes. Coaching staff and personnel both.
DAMWON/Hanwha (Net: -1.23)
DAMWON FINALLY SHOWED UP TO THE PARTY!
DragonX/KT Rolster (Net: +1.0)
As expected, these games were going to be fast stomps for whichever side won. DragonX outclassed KT today. I'm not downgrading my KT stock based on this series, DragonX are very good.
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I'm still floundering. It seems like I have the right game script a lot of the time but I've been just dead wrong on a lot in the past few weeks. Not sure if it's just the move to an online/remote play that's causing all of this chaos or if my evaluations were just wrong. Perhaps it's a bit of both. This has been an absolutely ridiculous cold run. I'm going to keep at it but the inverse confidence model is lookin' might fine right about now ;-)
New episode of The Gold Card Podcast was recorded last night too with special guest Joshua Roberts of Daily Fantasy Insider and soon The Action Network. Find him @RobertsNumber49 on Twitter
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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS!
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.Every so often somebody will get them shortly before game time. Do you research.
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The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top or you can DM me on Twitter if you prefer crypto or other means.
CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 5 - Day 5
Dominus +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
vs
EDward Gaming -535 (-1.5 @ -141)
Lineups:
Dom: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
vs
EDward Gaming -535 (-1.5 @ -141)
Lineups:
Dom: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
So have Dominus arrived? I doubt it. They've now beaten a few poor teams (yea I may have been wrong on LNG) but they still got obliterated by good teams. TOP and OMG owned them. I also think maybe the Diana pick caught people offguard a bit and it'll be on the radar moving forward.
Do we think EDG is in that ballpark? I think yes but that they're clearly a bit worse than those two.
EDG are almost definitely winning this series but they've gone to three games in their past five matches.
I'm not laying juice on either side of the map spread or the moneyline and the kill totals are right outside of range.
No wager
---Do we think EDG is in that ballpark? I think yes but that they're clearly a bit worse than those two.
EDG are almost definitely winning this series but they've gone to three games in their past five matches.
I'm not laying juice on either side of the map spread or the moneyline and the kill totals are right outside of range.
No wager
Victory Five +1087 (+1.5 @ +345)
vs
Invictus Gaming -25,000 (-1.5 @ -654)
Lineups:
V5: Aliez, Xiaohan, clx, y4, Max
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
This is the classic Invictus spot... the classic "they screwed around way too much" but Victory Five are on another tier of bad. I'm not sure they could beat a drunk Invictus. That said, Invictus have actually been awful against the kill spread this season. Only seven of their 16 wins were by double digits. The rest are very low including two wins while behind in kills. Their AMOV is 6.1875, by far the lowest in the league.
V5 have an 11.9 AMOD but that number has been creeping down recently. They've only lost by 12 or more kills in 3 of their last 11.
I'll take a shot on the Victory Five gigantic kill spreads but I wish I was getting more value on V5 to take a game.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: V5 +15.5 kills @ -179 (0.537 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +14.5 kills @ -149 (0.149 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +13.5 kills @ -123 (0.123 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +12.5 kills @ -103 (0.103 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +11.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ +126 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +9.5 kills @ +142 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: V5 +14.5 kills @ -167 (0.334 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +13.5 kills @ -135 (0.135 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +12.5 kills @ -112 (0.112 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +11.5 kills @ -101 (0.101 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +10.5 kills @ +112 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +9.5 kills @ +127 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: V5 +8.5 kills @ +144 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
---
eStar -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
Royal Never Give Up -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
Lineups:
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
So I was a match too late on the eStar loss but I actually still love this spot for RNG. They've been a pretty smart team and outside of two weird series losses have been one of the better teams in the LPL especially at game planning and having discipline in their macro. RNG have been the adults in the room. They've also been playing around bot for years regardless of who is in the lineup so if eStar don't mix things up I expect this could be a rough time for them.
Head meet brick wall.
Give me the dogs in this spot. I wanted to make this my pick of the week on the podcast before John stole it from me but I absolutely love this spot both stylistically and because RNG, on film, have been a better team to me even if the record has a few blotches on it.
I want some more exposure to this match so I'm going to take both the match moneyline, a stake in the RNG 2-0, and try for some increased odds on spreads in the first two maps instead of loading up on the +1.5 maps. RNG have won all but one of their wins by at least 7 kills this season, most of them by double digits. I wish we had more alt spreads available!
Moneyline: RNG +104 (1 unit)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +251 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: RNG -2.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -1.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: RNG -2.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -1.5 kills @ +113 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
---------------------------------------------
Week 7 - Day 3
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Head meet brick wall.
Give me the dogs in this spot. I wanted to make this my pick of the week on the podcast before John stole it from me but I absolutely love this spot both stylistically and because RNG, on film, have been a better team to me even if the record has a few blotches on it.
I want some more exposure to this match so I'm going to take both the match moneyline, a stake in the RNG 2-0, and try for some increased odds on spreads in the first two maps instead of loading up on the +1.5 maps. RNG have won all but one of their wins by at least 7 kills this season, most of them by double digits. I wish we had more alt spreads available!
Moneyline: RNG +104 (1 unit)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +251 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: RNG -2.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -1.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: RNG -2.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -1.5 kills @ +113 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
---------------------------------------------
LCK (Korea)
Week 7 - Day 3
Sandbox +692 (+1.5 @ +197)
vs
Gen.G -1961 (-1.5 @ -287)
No wagers
vs
Gen.G -1961 (-1.5 @ -287)
No wagers
----
Griffin +790 (+1.5 @ +271)
vs
T1 -3448 (-1.5 @ -422)
Griffin are capable of jumping out to a lead on people as they have a handful of times this year but just like coach H Dragon's former Jin Air Green Wings, they struggle after that point.
This number is a bit insane. It makes the kill spreads insane too. GRF, colloquially known as the "Greatly Reluctant Fighters," are understandably a graceful loser allowing only a 7.73 kill margin of defeat good for second in the league only to Gen.G. While that's been growing in recent losses, generally Griffin tend to roll over and die once they don't have a lead. Conveniently for us, T1 have been ending games in a hurry and in dominant fashion. They also have about a league average of 8.9 kills AMOV and only 13.82 kills per game, the lowest total in the league by a pretty big margin.
T1 don't style on people. They're a machine built to take care of business. I'll take the Griffin kill spreads.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: Griffin +10.5 kills @ -161 (0.483 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +9.5 kills @ -125 (0.125 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +8.5 kills @ +100 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: Griffin +10.5 kills @ -154 (0.462 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +9.5 kills @ -119 (0.119 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +8.5 kills @ +105 (0.1 units)
----
vs
T1 -3448 (-1.5 @ -422)
Griffin are capable of jumping out to a lead on people as they have a handful of times this year but just like coach H Dragon's former Jin Air Green Wings, they struggle after that point.
This number is a bit insane. It makes the kill spreads insane too. GRF, colloquially known as the "Greatly Reluctant Fighters," are understandably a graceful loser allowing only a 7.73 kill margin of defeat good for second in the league only to Gen.G. While that's been growing in recent losses, generally Griffin tend to roll over and die once they don't have a lead. Conveniently for us, T1 have been ending games in a hurry and in dominant fashion. They also have about a league average of 8.9 kills AMOV and only 13.82 kills per game, the lowest total in the league by a pretty big margin.
T1 don't style on people. They're a machine built to take care of business. I'll take the Griffin kill spreads.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: Griffin +10.5 kills @ -161 (0.483 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +9.5 kills @ -125 (0.125 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +8.5 kills @ +100 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: Griffin +10.5 kills @ -154 (0.462 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +9.5 kills @ -119 (0.119 units)
Kill Spread: Griffin +8.5 kills @ +105 (0.1 units)
----
DAMWON -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
Afreeca -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
These two teams appear to be trending in opposite directions. DAMWON finally showed up this morning and put in a good performance that looked like vintage 2019 DaMWON. Afreeca put up one of the single must infuriating performances I've seen in any league this season. I saw enough red flags in this spot that I'm fading Afreeca. DAMWON are really sloppy and make a lot of stupid decisions themselves and the Kiin vs Nuguri matchup scares me a bit but I think they'll get this done. Afreeca literally looked checked out today and they're getting to a point now where their playoff hopes might be in jeopardy.
There's a chance this was a lookahead spot for Afreeca who have to play back to back games here. Maybe they just didn't prep for APK with this matchup in mind. For that reason I'm only going light on the DAMWON spread.
Both of these teams are on the bloodier side for LCK teams. They both prefer to fight their way out of a paper bag more like an LPL team than the low-risk preferences most LCK teams have. After watching their past few series I don't think that will change in this spot. The first meeting between these two also had a 24 and 32 kill games in games two and three.
With kill totals for both trending up and the general kill totals world wide trending up since moving to an online format I like the over total in this spot as well. DAMWON are also the 2nd highest kill per win team in the LCK as an added bonus.
Moneyline: DAMWON -135 (1.35 units)
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +226 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ -133 (0.3325 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -110 (0.275 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -1.5 kills @ +100 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -2.5 kills @ +113 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -3.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -122 (0.305 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -2.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -3.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
vs
Afreeca -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
These two teams appear to be trending in opposite directions. DAMWON finally showed up this morning and put in a good performance that looked like vintage 2019 DaMWON. Afreeca put up one of the single must infuriating performances I've seen in any league this season. I saw enough red flags in this spot that I'm fading Afreeca. DAMWON are really sloppy and make a lot of stupid decisions themselves and the Kiin vs Nuguri matchup scares me a bit but I think they'll get this done. Afreeca literally looked checked out today and they're getting to a point now where their playoff hopes might be in jeopardy.
There's a chance this was a lookahead spot for Afreeca who have to play back to back games here. Maybe they just didn't prep for APK with this matchup in mind. For that reason I'm only going light on the DAMWON spread.
Both of these teams are on the bloodier side for LCK teams. They both prefer to fight their way out of a paper bag more like an LPL team than the low-risk preferences most LCK teams have. After watching their past few series I don't think that will change in this spot. The first meeting between these two also had a 24 and 32 kill games in games two and three.
With kill totals for both trending up and the general kill totals world wide trending up since moving to an online format I like the over total in this spot as well. DAMWON are also the 2nd highest kill per win team in the LCK as an added bonus.
Moneyline: DAMWON -135 (1.35 units)
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +226 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ -133 (0.3325 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -110 (0.275 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -1.5 kills @ +100 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -2.5 kills @ +113 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -3.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -122 (0.305 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -2.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG -3.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
LEC (Europe)
Playoffs Round 1
I wrote on all of these games over at The Action Network. I'd encourage you to check that article out. I'll just put my actual picks here for bookkeeping.
G2 vs MAD Lions
Value is definitely on MAD Lions but I just don't see how G2 doesn't smash this series unless they decide to lose it for themselves. Going against the numbers.Feel pretty strongly that MAD could take a game but thinking like 3 to 0.8 maps G2 win.
Spread: G2 -1.5 maps @ -357 (1.785 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: G2 eSports -8.5 kills @ -114 (0.114 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: G2 eSports -8.5 kills @ -106 (0.106 units)
Map 3:
ill Spread: G2 eSports -8.5 kills @ -106 (0.106 units)
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Other Leagues
none yet
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): EDG ML + DAMWON ML @ +114 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): EDG ML + DAMWON ML @ +114 (0.5 units)
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