April 4th Recap:
LCK: 14 - 13 (+0.3285 units)
LEC: 4 - 2 (+1.3 units)
Live: 1 - 0 (+1.0 units)
Parlays: (-0.2 units)
Total: 19 - 15 (+2.4285 units)
LEC: 4 - 2 (+1.3 units)
Live: 1 - 0 (+1.0 units)
Parlays: (-0.2 units)
Total: 19 - 15 (+2.4285 units)
KT Rolster/APK (Net: -3.49)
Incredibly disappointing result here but a reminder that the draft rules everything right now. It's quite literally the only reason APK have won games this season.
Sandbox/Hanwha (Net:-0.0165)
Tempt had a nasty 5 man Azir ult in the top river in the mid game of this but other than that Sandbox would have taken this game down if not for a creative backdoor by Hanwha. Games two and three were pretty lopsided victories for Sandbox.
Summit went berserk on this Aatrox pick in this series. It really feels like the benching lit a fire under his ass because he's been kind of crazy in the past two series. Sandbox still have a lot of issues but looked a lot better in this series albeit against HLE.
Gen.G/DragonX (Net: +3.835)
As I mentioned this series should have been closer to even money. DragonX are on the same level of T1 and Gen.G. Chovy went ballistic in this series but it was a team victory in both wins. Don't hold this one against Gen.G. DragonX is good.
Fnatic/Origen (Net: +1.3)
This played out more or less exactly as expected. Fnatic are just too good at creating draft leverage and taking advantage of teams trying to play by-the-book. Fnatic might just be better than they were last year which is impressive.
FlyQuest/Evil Geniuses (no action)
I had some EG moneyline plays but didn't write on them so they don't go in the bookkeeping. I had some stuff come up early Saturday that I had to take care of so I didn't get a chance to do a writeup. The worship for Solo by the broadcast kind of triggered me. Just because the team was there to actually make the play and he got the first blood doesn't mean he was doing everything better than Viper in this series. Had very little to do with the substitution and more to do with the team play. Kind of annoying. Not saying Viper was excellent in the first two games or anything but did he sleep with someone he shouldn't have or something? Jeez...
As I mentioned this series should have been closer to even money. DragonX are on the same level of T1 and Gen.G. Chovy went ballistic in this series but it was a team victory in both wins. Don't hold this one against Gen.G. DragonX is good.
Fnatic/Origen (Net: +1.3)
This played out more or less exactly as expected. Fnatic are just too good at creating draft leverage and taking advantage of teams trying to play by-the-book. Fnatic might just be better than they were last year which is impressive.
FlyQuest/Evil Geniuses (no action)
I had some EG moneyline plays but didn't write on them so they don't go in the bookkeeping. I had some stuff come up early Saturday that I had to take care of so I didn't get a chance to do a writeup. The worship for Solo by the broadcast kind of triggered me. Just because the team was there to actually make the play and he got the first blood doesn't mean he was doing everything better than Viper in this series. Had very little to do with the substitution and more to do with the team play. Kind of annoying. Not saying Viper was excellent in the first two games or anything but did he sleep with someone he shouldn't have or something? Jeez...
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The LCK DOES NOT RELEASE LINEUPS!
They are actively against gambling. The casters will not release lineups ahead of time. I get asked the question a million times a year. It just is what it is. Understand this when building DFS lineups.Every so often somebody will get them shortly before game time. Do you research.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 5 - Day 6
The return of Zoom and the reuniting of "The Dumpling Brothers" of Zoom and Yagao. For those that are new, these two have been playing together for years and years but JDG were trying out 705 all season long in the top lane. The timing of those move is a bit strange to me and it could have a few implications. First, JDG look at LNG as an easy win and are using their "sub" which implies that perhaps Zoom has lost a step and 705 is the starter moving forward. Second, Zoom needed time off (a la Uzi) and they want to ease him back in. Third, could be metagame or strategic considerations. Zoom might have some picks they want to play against Flandre. We'll see. I wouldn't automatically assume he's going to come back and smash everything particularly against someone that's pretty good like Flandre.
I can't stand the Light start here. I actually would have been all over LNG +1.5 maps with Asura in the lineup I'd feel a lot better about it. LNG have a bad habit of leaving their ADC out to dry in fights. They've lost so many games because of it this season and I trust Asura to defend himself or at least be used to getting no help.
The other angle to this series is that JDG had a rough stretch where they were playing worse AND caught a difficult schedule of RNG, TOP, and EDG. Before the season I had this team pegged as the #2 and I still think they're going to be an elite team. The Zoom starting is a weird situation at this point but I think JDG probably roll in this spot. They've mostly been smashing all the middle of the table or worse teams with a game loss to Vici being the only notable underperformance in those situations.
Even though they've been trending downward in overall performance of late, LNG are a good "punch up" underdog. They're scrappy and have the players to snowball a game with Flandre, Xx, and Maple as a formidable top trio to match JDG's but the huge difference in the bottom lane in terms of consistency and overall versatility is such a huge edge for JDG in this spot. I also think there's a reasonable chance that Zoom is starting because of a specific pick they have in mind to punish Flandre. Good chance Zoom has been in the kitchen cooking up something spicy.
LNG have the 6th highest AMOD in the LPL at 11.27 kills and the 4th worst kills per loss at 6.87, well below league average. JDG are also well below league average in kills per win. The LPL is averaging 26.0 kills per game but I could see this being a lower scoring affair with split push compositions or JDG just rolling over the early game. Combined, these two teams are providing 24.7 kills per game, significantly less that (22.8) if you're assuming a JDG win/LNG loss.
JDG are 6-3 as favorites but 4-5 ATS although the underdogs include RNG, TOP, EDG, and Vici. Against lower level competition WE, BiliBili and V5 they've 2-0'd.
LNG are 1-3 as underdogs but 3-1 ATS covering against Vici, eStar, and BiliBili but losing to TOP.
While JDG have a big AMOV we're avoiding kill spreads in this spot because I could see this being a low scoring win.
Moneyline: JDG -303 (1.515 units)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ -128 (0.32 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ -123 (0.3075 units)
(5Dimes)
----
Playoffs Round 1
I wrote on all of these games over at The Action Network. I'd encourage you to check that article out. I'll just put my actual picks here for bookkeeping.
Rogue -102 (+1.5 @ -234, +2.5 @ -769)
vs
Misfits -141 (-1.5 @ +160, -2.5 @ +395)
I'm going to be taking the time unders as well. If it's not abundantly clear I think Rogue win this outright. Read the TAN article for more but I generally just think we've seen mostly the bottom end of their spectrum of expectation. This team will show up for this series and I think Misfits are a lot more limited in a best of five setting. Misfits have already been trending downward in terms of being figured out.
More than half of Rogues games were over un under 32:00. 66.6% of their wins were under 32:00. I love the time unders in this series especially since I like Rogue to dominate this series.
Moneyline: Rogue +105 (1 unit)
Spread: Rogue -1.5 maps @ +225 (0.5 units)
Spread: Rogue -2.5 maps @ +553 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue +0.5 kills @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -0.5 kills @ +118 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue +0.5 kills @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -0.5 kills @ +118 (0.2 units)
Map 3:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue +0.5 kills @ +112 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -0.5 kills @ +120 (0.2 units)
LNG eSports +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
JD Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
vs
JD Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
LNG: Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
The return of Zoom and the reuniting of "The Dumpling Brothers" of Zoom and Yagao. For those that are new, these two have been playing together for years and years but JDG were trying out 705 all season long in the top lane. The timing of those move is a bit strange to me and it could have a few implications. First, JDG look at LNG as an easy win and are using their "sub" which implies that perhaps Zoom has lost a step and 705 is the starter moving forward. Second, Zoom needed time off (a la Uzi) and they want to ease him back in. Third, could be metagame or strategic considerations. Zoom might have some picks they want to play against Flandre. We'll see. I wouldn't automatically assume he's going to come back and smash everything particularly against someone that's pretty good like Flandre.
I can't stand the Light start here. I actually would have been all over LNG +1.5 maps with Asura in the lineup I'd feel a lot better about it. LNG have a bad habit of leaving their ADC out to dry in fights. They've lost so many games because of it this season and I trust Asura to defend himself or at least be used to getting no help.
The other angle to this series is that JDG had a rough stretch where they were playing worse AND caught a difficult schedule of RNG, TOP, and EDG. Before the season I had this team pegged as the #2 and I still think they're going to be an elite team. The Zoom starting is a weird situation at this point but I think JDG probably roll in this spot. They've mostly been smashing all the middle of the table or worse teams with a game loss to Vici being the only notable underperformance in those situations.
Even though they've been trending downward in overall performance of late, LNG are a good "punch up" underdog. They're scrappy and have the players to snowball a game with Flandre, Xx, and Maple as a formidable top trio to match JDG's but the huge difference in the bottom lane in terms of consistency and overall versatility is such a huge edge for JDG in this spot. I also think there's a reasonable chance that Zoom is starting because of a specific pick they have in mind to punish Flandre. Good chance Zoom has been in the kitchen cooking up something spicy.
LNG have the 6th highest AMOD in the LPL at 11.27 kills and the 4th worst kills per loss at 6.87, well below league average. JDG are also well below league average in kills per win. The LPL is averaging 26.0 kills per game but I could see this being a lower scoring affair with split push compositions or JDG just rolling over the early game. Combined, these two teams are providing 24.7 kills per game, significantly less that (22.8) if you're assuming a JDG win/LNG loss.
JDG are 6-3 as favorites but 4-5 ATS although the underdogs include RNG, TOP, EDG, and Vici. Against lower level competition WE, BiliBili and V5 they've 2-0'd.
LNG are 1-3 as underdogs but 3-1 ATS covering against Vici, eStar, and BiliBili but losing to TOP.
While JDG have a big AMOV we're avoiding kill spreads in this spot because I could see this being a low scoring win.
Moneyline: JDG -303 (1.515 units)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +104 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ -128 (0.32 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 kills @ -123 (0.3075 units)
(5Dimes)
----
EDward Gaming -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
vs
BiliBili Gaming +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
BLG: ADD, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
After getting run over in game one and then punting a huge lead in game two, BiliBili got swept by the WeiYan-less Rogue Warriors in their last match. I keep believing that this BiliBili team is going to find a way to return to form and they continue disappointing. They've won a single match since returning from the hiatus where they started off 2-0 vs RNG and Vici. Their only win was a 2-1 against the middling Team WE. BiliBili have had a lot of drafting issues which have put them on the back foot before the game begins in a lot of scenarios. I thought ADD would help that but it doesn't appear that the coaching staff are properly leveraging the advantages they could get.
As disappointing as BLG have been and how much regret I've got for making them my pick of the week on the podcast this week, I still think they'll get a game here. EDG have been good and a lot better than I thought they'd be given their roster situation, but not particularly great.
I think BiliBili probably cover in this spot. BiliBili are 2-3 as underdogs and 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season. 7 out of 10 series have gone to three games. EDG are 3-2 as favorites but just 1-4 ATS as favorites with losses dropped to LGD, RW, Suning, and Vici. Their only sweep was against Victory Five. EDG have been able to win series but have struggled to consistently cover even against weaker competition.
BiliBili have the third lowest kill per loss in the LPL, well below league average. They've averaged 5.33 kills per loss in their past 8 losses. BiliBili also have the second highest AMOD besides Invictus.
EDG are slightly below league average in kills per win, and slightly more so below average in their previous 8 wins.
Combined, these two teams are averaging 23.05 kills+deaths per game on average. Both are well below average in kills per win as well as kills per loss. I'd expect a slower, more controlled game coming out from this match by both sides. If the kill spreads were more indicative of the moneyline odds I'd have some BiliBili with the classic low total + high spread combination we know so much from football but they're lower spreads so we'll pass.
This is more a lack of faith in EDG to sweep than an endorsement of BiliBili.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -141 (1.41 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -139 (1.39 units)
(5Dimes)
----
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ +130 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ +152 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +1.5 kills @ +142 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +2.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +3.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ +130 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ +152 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +1.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +2.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +3.5 kills @ +104 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
----
vs
BiliBili Gaming +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
Lineups:
EDG: Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
BLG: ADD, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
After getting run over in game one and then punting a huge lead in game two, BiliBili got swept by the WeiYan-less Rogue Warriors in their last match. I keep believing that this BiliBili team is going to find a way to return to form and they continue disappointing. They've won a single match since returning from the hiatus where they started off 2-0 vs RNG and Vici. Their only win was a 2-1 against the middling Team WE. BiliBili have had a lot of drafting issues which have put them on the back foot before the game begins in a lot of scenarios. I thought ADD would help that but it doesn't appear that the coaching staff are properly leveraging the advantages they could get.
As disappointing as BLG have been and how much regret I've got for making them my pick of the week on the podcast this week, I still think they'll get a game here. EDG have been good and a lot better than I thought they'd be given their roster situation, but not particularly great.
I think BiliBili probably cover in this spot. BiliBili are 2-3 as underdogs and 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season. 7 out of 10 series have gone to three games. EDG are 3-2 as favorites but just 1-4 ATS as favorites with losses dropped to LGD, RW, Suning, and Vici. Their only sweep was against Victory Five. EDG have been able to win series but have struggled to consistently cover even against weaker competition.
BiliBili have the third lowest kill per loss in the LPL, well below league average. They've averaged 5.33 kills per loss in their past 8 losses. BiliBili also have the second highest AMOD besides Invictus.
EDG are slightly below league average in kills per win, and slightly more so below average in their previous 8 wins.
Combined, these two teams are averaging 23.05 kills+deaths per game on average. Both are well below average in kills per win as well as kills per loss. I'd expect a slower, more controlled game coming out from this match by both sides. If the kill spreads were more indicative of the moneyline odds I'd have some BiliBili with the classic low total + high spread combination we know so much from football but they're lower spreads so we'll pass.
This is more a lack of faith in EDG to sweep than an endorsement of BiliBili.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -141 (1.41 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -139 (1.39 units)
(5Dimes)
----
Invictus Gaming -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
vs
Royal Never Give Up +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
This line has crept down from -260/+172 because of the RNG win and deservedly so. I still think there is a ton of value in the underdog here. To me these teams are relatively evenly matched. It's two contrasting playstyle but with how RNG just handled the similarly aggressive eStar and their history/experience against Invictus it makes me like the dogs even more. RNG have looked like the best team in the LPL for large swaths of the season and getting them as a dog this big is egregious regardless of the result of this series.
Invictus are one of the bloodiest teams on the planet but not so in losses. RNG tend to be a very disciplined team that knows how to say no to an unprofitable fight as we saw against eStar. They're able to take advantage of overaggression. RNG are also below league average in kills per win. I like the RNG. Invictus also have the worst average margin of victory (7.0 kills) in the LPL despite being at the top of the table. The do have the 4th most kills per win and are well above average in that category though.
I think this is going to be a closer series than a lot of people think. If we assume RNG take one or two games like I'm doing then I'd assume those games are going to be under the total kills by a mile. I also think that because of Invictus' history this season so far that we're getting inflated numbers which make it more appealing. Given IG's lack of dominant victories from a spread perspective including 4 games where they won by 1 or fewer kills, I like the plus odds spreads for RNG too especially given that I think they take at least a game anyway. I'll also mention that RNG have a very low kill per loss number meaning that even if Invictus win I'd expect it to be lower scoring than their typical matches.
I'm going to diversify a lot of my exposure on this but generally it's under kill totals, RNG kill spreads, and RNG to take a game with a good chance to win outright.
Spread: RNG +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: RNG +166 (0.5 units)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +359 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)vs
Royal Never Give Up +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
This line has crept down from -260/+172 because of the RNG win and deservedly so. I still think there is a ton of value in the underdog here. To me these teams are relatively evenly matched. It's two contrasting playstyle but with how RNG just handled the similarly aggressive eStar and their history/experience against Invictus it makes me like the dogs even more. RNG have looked like the best team in the LPL for large swaths of the season and getting them as a dog this big is egregious regardless of the result of this series.
Invictus are one of the bloodiest teams on the planet but not so in losses. RNG tend to be a very disciplined team that knows how to say no to an unprofitable fight as we saw against eStar. They're able to take advantage of overaggression. RNG are also below league average in kills per win. I like the RNG. Invictus also have the worst average margin of victory (7.0 kills) in the LPL despite being at the top of the table. The do have the 4th most kills per win and are well above average in that category though.
I think this is going to be a closer series than a lot of people think. If we assume RNG take one or two games like I'm doing then I'd assume those games are going to be under the total kills by a mile. I also think that because of Invictus' history this season so far that we're getting inflated numbers which make it more appealing. Given IG's lack of dominant victories from a spread perspective including 4 games where they won by 1 or fewer kills, I like the plus odds spreads for RNG too especially given that I think they take at least a game anyway. I'll also mention that RNG have a very low kill per loss number meaning that even if Invictus win I'd expect it to be lower scoring than their typical matches.
I'm going to diversify a lot of my exposure on this but generally it's under kill totals, RNG kill spreads, and RNG to take a game with a good chance to win outright.
Spread: RNG +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: RNG +166 (0.5 units)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +359 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ +130 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ +152 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +1.5 kills @ +142 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +2.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +3.5 kills @ +110 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ +130 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ +152 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +1.5 kills @ +134 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +2.5 kills @ +118 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: RNG +3.5 kills @ +104 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
----
---------------------------------------------
Week 7 - Day 5
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------------------------
LCK (Korea)
Week 7 - Day 5
DAMWON Gaming +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
T1 -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
DAMWON are looking much better of late and they'll probably make the playoffs with the implosion of Afreeca but they're about to run into a buzzsaw here.
My gut tells me there's something funky with this matchup. I kind of think DAMWON are going to get a game but it's just a hunch and I don't really have a lot to go on other than current form. It's not enough to lay even -133 (best I found) on the +1.5. This is, however, another spot where I absolutely love the underdog kill spread against T1.
If you look over the course of the season at DAMWON's losing numbers they actually suggest you should take the T1 kill spreads here but I think DAMWON have looked better than they have all year so far recently. They probably lose this series but I like the kill spreads for the underdog and the added bonus of a hunch telling me they steal a game makes it even more appealing.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: DWG +8.5 kills @ -208 (0.208 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +7.5 kills @ -154 (0.154 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +6.5 kills @ -119 (0.119 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +5.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +4.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +3.5 kills @+150 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +2.5 kills @ +170 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: DWG +8.5 kills @ -238 (0.238 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +7.5 kills @ -182(0.182 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +6.5 kills @ -137 (0.137 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +5.5 kills @ -110 (0.110 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +4.5 kills @ +112 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +3.5 kills @ +142 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +2.5 kills @ +162 (0.1 units)
vs
T1 -350 (-1.5 @ -102)
DAMWON are looking much better of late and they'll probably make the playoffs with the implosion of Afreeca but they're about to run into a buzzsaw here.
My gut tells me there's something funky with this matchup. I kind of think DAMWON are going to get a game but it's just a hunch and I don't really have a lot to go on other than current form. It's not enough to lay even -133 (best I found) on the +1.5. This is, however, another spot where I absolutely love the underdog kill spread against T1.
If you look over the course of the season at DAMWON's losing numbers they actually suggest you should take the T1 kill spreads here but I think DAMWON have looked better than they have all year so far recently. They probably lose this series but I like the kill spreads for the underdog and the added bonus of a hunch telling me they steal a game makes it even more appealing.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: DWG +8.5 kills @ -208 (0.208 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +7.5 kills @ -154 (0.154 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +6.5 kills @ -119 (0.119 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +5.5 kills @ +103 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +4.5 kills @ +122 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +3.5 kills @+150 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +2.5 kills @ +170 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: DWG +8.5 kills @ -238 (0.238 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +7.5 kills @ -182(0.182 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +6.5 kills @ -137 (0.137 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +5.5 kills @ -110 (0.110 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +4.5 kills @ +112 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +3.5 kills @ +142 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: DWG +2.5 kills @ +162 (0.1 units)
APK Prince -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
vs
Griffin +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
I'm still not buying this APK team but they do get points for being intelligent and drafting well consistently which is the name of the game right now. This coaching staff has done a tremendous job.
As bad as Griffin have been, APK don't deserve to be favored by this much over anyone. To borrow a bit from the SGP guys, this is a "close your eyes special."
Griffin have been the 2nd most graceful losers with an AMOD of 7.81 kills whil APK have an AMOV of 8.08 kills. APK have the most kills per win in the LCK at 17.92 while Griffins ikills per loss is slightly above league average at 6.38.
The last time these two teams faced off it went under 22 in games 1 and 3 but blew up in game two. Together these two teams average 22.75 kills+deaths per game on average for the season but given Griffin are facing relegations without a few wins and APK are now battling for a playoff spot potentially, I could see this getting a little bit goofy but there isn't enough value in the kill totals or spreads based on my numbers.
I do like the UNDER 34:00 though. Both of these teams have shown the ability to snowball a game on dragon souls and the majority of their matches have ended uner the 32:00 mark with some big outliers on each side. Especially if one team is particularly on the money in this match, I definitely think 34:00 is way too high and is strictly based on their season averages not recent results.
Spread: Griffin +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Griffin +160 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -102 (1.02 units)
----
vs
Griffin +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
I'm still not buying this APK team but they do get points for being intelligent and drafting well consistently which is the name of the game right now. This coaching staff has done a tremendous job.
As bad as Griffin have been, APK don't deserve to be favored by this much over anyone. To borrow a bit from the SGP guys, this is a "close your eyes special."
Griffin have been the 2nd most graceful losers with an AMOD of 7.81 kills whil APK have an AMOV of 8.08 kills. APK have the most kills per win in the LCK at 17.92 while Griffins ikills per loss is slightly above league average at 6.38.
The last time these two teams faced off it went under 22 in games 1 and 3 but blew up in game two. Together these two teams average 22.75 kills+deaths per game on average for the season but given Griffin are facing relegations without a few wins and APK are now battling for a playoff spot potentially, I could see this getting a little bit goofy but there isn't enough value in the kill totals or spreads based on my numbers.
I do like the UNDER 34:00 though. Both of these teams have shown the ability to snowball a game on dragon souls and the majority of their matches have ended uner the 32:00 mark with some big outliers on each side. Especially if one team is particularly on the money in this match, I definitely think 34:00 is way too high and is strictly based on their season averages not recent results.
Spread: Griffin +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Griffin +160 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -102 (1.02 units)
----
Hanwha Life eSports +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
Afreeca Freecs -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Hanwha Life look cooked and Afreeca are coming off of a few losses and appear to be in a downward spiral. This is typically a spot where I'd love the bounce back but Afreeca look like an absolute dumpster fire at the moment besides Kiin, who looks like he's about had enough of Fly and wants to take carrying matters into his own hands. While I think Kiin is insanely good, this is a rather toxic and unbalanced approach to the game and as long as other teams are ready for him to play carries it's fairly predictable and exploitable. Afreeca keep wanting to play this uptempo style but lack the execution to be doing it right now. Until they show otherwise I'm not trusting them. Afreeca shouldn't be laying points, much less this many over anybody in their current form.
This is another close your eyes, underdog special.
These teams combine for 22.95 kills+deaths per game and bother are slightly above average in kills per loss. I'd expect this to go over, particularly with the styles of compositions Afreeca have been playing and with Hanwha Life's willingness to play experiemental stuff. One or two of these games could turn into absolute fiestas.
Hanwha have tended to lose quickly and win quickly but Afreeca have been all over the map, mostly because of the way they draft and having to introduce some shenanigans to the game a lot of the time to close things out. I'm staying away from the time totals even though the under is tempting. If Afreeca "bounce back" or "get right" they'll smash this matchup but since I don't see that happening I'll just pass on the time totals.
Spread: Hanwha Life +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Hanwha Life +160 (0.5 units) (Nitrogen)
Spread: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)
vs
Afreeca Freecs -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Hanwha Life look cooked and Afreeca are coming off of a few losses and appear to be in a downward spiral. This is typically a spot where I'd love the bounce back but Afreeca look like an absolute dumpster fire at the moment besides Kiin, who looks like he's about had enough of Fly and wants to take carrying matters into his own hands. While I think Kiin is insanely good, this is a rather toxic and unbalanced approach to the game and as long as other teams are ready for him to play carries it's fairly predictable and exploitable. Afreeca keep wanting to play this uptempo style but lack the execution to be doing it right now. Until they show otherwise I'm not trusting them. Afreeca shouldn't be laying points, much less this many over anybody in their current form.
This is another close your eyes, underdog special.
These teams combine for 22.95 kills+deaths per game and bother are slightly above average in kills per loss. I'd expect this to go over, particularly with the styles of compositions Afreeca have been playing and with Hanwha Life's willingness to play experiemental stuff. One or two of these games could turn into absolute fiestas.
Hanwha have tended to lose quickly and win quickly but Afreeca have been all over the map, mostly because of the way they draft and having to introduce some shenanigans to the game a lot of the time to close things out. I'm staying away from the time totals even though the under is tempting. If Afreeca "bounce back" or "get right" they'll smash this matchup but since I don't see that happening I'll just pass on the time totals.
Spread: Hanwha Life +1.5 maps @ -207 (2.07 units)(Nitrogen)
Moneyline: Hanwha Life +160 (0.5 units) (Nitrogen)
Spread: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)
LEC (Europe)
Playoffs Round 1
I wrote on all of these games over at The Action Network. I'd encourage you to check that article out. I'll just put my actual picks here for bookkeeping.
Rogue -102 (+1.5 @ -234, +2.5 @ -769)
vs
Misfits -141 (-1.5 @ +160, -2.5 @ +395)
I'm going to be taking the time unders as well. If it's not abundantly clear I think Rogue win this outright. Read the TAN article for more but I generally just think we've seen mostly the bottom end of their spectrum of expectation. This team will show up for this series and I think Misfits are a lot more limited in a best of five setting. Misfits have already been trending downward in terms of being figured out.
More than half of Rogues games were over un under 32:00. 66.6% of their wins were under 32:00. I love the time unders in this series especially since I like Rogue to dominate this series.
Moneyline: Rogue +105 (1 unit)
Spread: Rogue -1.5 maps @ +225 (0.5 units)
Spread: Rogue -2.5 maps @ +553 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue +0.5 kills @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -0.5 kills @ +118 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue +0.5 kills @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -0.5 kills @ +118 (0.2 units)
Map 3:
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue +0.5 kills @ +112 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -0.5 kills @ +120 (0.2 units)
------------------------
Playoffs Round 1
100 Thieves +741 (+1.5 @ +329, +2.5 @ -113)
vs
Cloud 9 -2564 (-1.5 @ -535, -2.5 @ -128)
For as good as Cloud 9 have been, I think the current state of the game makes it rather easy for inferior players to steal games and introduce variance through the draft. 100 Thieves are a decent team, not great, not terrible, but this metagame is really weird. Cloud 9 are going to do some weird stuff in this series, 100 Thieves are going to do some weird stuff in this series. Games will be lost.
Consider this a bet on the current state of League of Legends in season ten more than hating on Cloud 9. Feels like unless Victory Five is involved that nobody should be favored by this much. In the NA LCS nobody is that good, even Cloud 9. Also Cloud 9 looked like they were slowing down a bit toward the end of the year. There's a chance that because they clinched it they were easing up but I think the rest of the league caught up at least a little bit.
Particularly in game ones I like upsets to happen in a best of five. It's usually where the really off-the-wall stuff happens.
Cloud 9 only won a single game by double digits in their final six wins of the season so I like 100T kill spreads too.
Spread: 100T +2.5 maps @ -106 (2.12 units)
Spread: 100T +1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Moneyline: 100T +778 (0.25 units)
Spread: 100T -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Moneyline: Map 1 100T +304 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +9.5 kills @ -185 (0.37 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +8.5 kills @ -145 (0.290 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +7.5 kills @ -116 (0.116 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +6.5 kills @ +104 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +5.5 kills @ +127 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Moneyline: Map 1 100T +304 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +9.5 kills @ -175 (0.35 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +8.5 kills @ -141 (0.282 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +7.5 kills @ -114 (0.114 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +6.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +5.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Map 3:
Moneyline: Map 1 100T +304 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +9.5 kills @ -179 (0.358 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +8.5 kills @ -143 (0.286 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +7.5 kills @ -118 (0.118 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +6.5 kills @ +105 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +5.5 kills @ +129 (0.1 units)
LCS (North America)
Playoffs Round 1
100 Thieves +741 (+1.5 @ +329, +2.5 @ -113)
vs
Cloud 9 -2564 (-1.5 @ -535, -2.5 @ -128)
For as good as Cloud 9 have been, I think the current state of the game makes it rather easy for inferior players to steal games and introduce variance through the draft. 100 Thieves are a decent team, not great, not terrible, but this metagame is really weird. Cloud 9 are going to do some weird stuff in this series, 100 Thieves are going to do some weird stuff in this series. Games will be lost.
Consider this a bet on the current state of League of Legends in season ten more than hating on Cloud 9. Feels like unless Victory Five is involved that nobody should be favored by this much. In the NA LCS nobody is that good, even Cloud 9. Also Cloud 9 looked like they were slowing down a bit toward the end of the year. There's a chance that because they clinched it they were easing up but I think the rest of the league caught up at least a little bit.
Particularly in game ones I like upsets to happen in a best of five. It's usually where the really off-the-wall stuff happens.
Cloud 9 only won a single game by double digits in their final six wins of the season so I like 100T kill spreads too.
Spread: 100T +2.5 maps @ -106 (2.12 units)
Spread: 100T +1.5 maps @ +337 (0.25 units)
Moneyline: 100T +778 (0.25 units)
Spread: 100T -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.1 units)
Map 1:
Moneyline: Map 1 100T +304 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +9.5 kills @ -185 (0.37 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +8.5 kills @ -145 (0.290 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +7.5 kills @ -116 (0.116 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +6.5 kills @ +104 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +5.5 kills @ +127 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Moneyline: Map 1 100T +304 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +9.5 kills @ -175 (0.35 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +8.5 kills @ -141 (0.282 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +7.5 kills @ -114 (0.114 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +6.5 kills @ +107 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +5.5 kills @ +130 (0.1 units)
Map 3:
Moneyline: Map 1 100T +304 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +9.5 kills @ -179 (0.358 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +8.5 kills @ -143 (0.286 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +7.5 kills @ -118 (0.118 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +6.5 kills @ +105 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: 100T +5.5 kills @ +129 (0.1 units)
------------------------
Other Leagues
none yet
--------------------
Parlays:
Parlay (2): T1 ML + JDG ML @ -145 (0.725 units)
Parlay (2): Rogue ML + 100T +2.5 maps @ +298 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): T1 ML + JDG ML @ -145 (0.725 units)
Parlay (2): Rogue ML + 100T +2.5 maps @ +298 (0.25 units)
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