April 14th Recap:
LPL: 30 - 25 (+5.938 units)
Total: +4.4095 units
JDG / Rogue Warriors (Net: +0.9745)
Suning / Vici (Net: +1.8585)
BiliBili / LGD (Net: +3.105)
Solid day both here and in DFS. I was a mere SwordArt instead of LvMao away from splitting some massive prize pools but hey, we'll take those.
I wrote on some of these games in more detail over at The Action Network today so I'd encourage you to check that out!
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 3
Trends:
EDG are 6-2 as favorites, 3-5 ATS
EDG are 5-0 , 2-3 ATS in their past 5 appearances as favorites
OMG are 6-3 as underdogs, 5-4 ATS
OMG are 1-4, 2-3 ATS in their past 5 appearances as underdogs
OMG are 0-7 in matches, 2-14 in games against top eight (playoff) teams
I did a longer, more detailed writeup of this over on The Action Network. Check out me being professional and all that! No seriously all the good good is in that post so go give it a few clicks or subscribe if you haven't TAN is awesome!
OMG haven't beaten a really good team and EDG are rounding into form with the full squad ready to roll. Also, EDG still need this win to lock playoffs and if I was them I'd want to eliminate OMG since they're actually the 8th best team in the LPL. It's also a stylistic mismatch for OMG who rely heavily on individually outlaning their opponents similar to Origen in Europe. They're always going to struggle with actual good teams but always be way better than the rest just by design.
Big gap in first blood percentage between these two and, again, stylistically I'd assume EDG get on the right foot earlier in this game anyway.
Moneyline: EDG -270 (2.7 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +130 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -143 (0.3575 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -143 (0.3575 units)
----
OMG +197 (+1.5 @ -167)
vs
EDward Gaming -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
EDG: Jinoo, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
vs
EDward Gaming -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
Lineups:
OMG: Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
EDG: Jinoo, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Trends:
EDG are 6-2 as favorites, 3-5 ATS
EDG are 5-0 , 2-3 ATS in their past 5 appearances as favorites
OMG are 6-3 as underdogs, 5-4 ATS
OMG are 1-4, 2-3 ATS in their past 5 appearances as underdogs
OMG are 0-7 in matches, 2-14 in games against top eight (playoff) teams
I did a longer, more detailed writeup of this over on The Action Network. Check out me being professional and all that! No seriously all the good good is in that post so go give it a few clicks or subscribe if you haven't TAN is awesome!
OMG haven't beaten a really good team and EDG are rounding into form with the full squad ready to roll. Also, EDG still need this win to lock playoffs and if I was them I'd want to eliminate OMG since they're actually the 8th best team in the LPL. It's also a stylistic mismatch for OMG who rely heavily on individually outlaning their opponents similar to Origen in Europe. They're always going to struggle with actual good teams but always be way better than the rest just by design.
Big gap in first blood percentage between these two and, again, stylistically I'd assume EDG get on the right foot earlier in this game anyway.
Moneyline: EDG -270 (2.7 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +130 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -143 (0.3575 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)
Prop: EDG first blood @ -143 (0.3575 units)
----
Royal Never Give Up -535 (-1.5 @ -141)
vs
Dominus eSports +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
Dom: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
Trends:
V
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -119 (1.785 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ +104 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -8.5 kills @ +113 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -9.5 kills @ +143 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ +105 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -7.5 kills @ +100 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -8.5 kills @ +124 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -9.5 kills @ +155 (0.2 units)
----
vs
Dominus eSports +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
RNG: Langx, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
Dom: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
Trends:
V
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -119 (1.785 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ +104 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -8.5 kills @ +113 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -9.5 kills @ +143 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ +105 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -7.5 kills @ +100 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -8.5 kills @ +124 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: RNG -9.5 kills @ +155 (0.2 units)
----
Team WE +296 (+1.5 @ -123)
vs
Invictus Gaming -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
Trends:
Invictus are 10-2 as favorites, 7-5 ATS
Invictus are 4-1, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs BLG, JDG, RNG, V5, OMG)
Team WE are 3-4 as underdogs, 3-4 ATS
Team WE are 3-2, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
The kill total for this series is an obscene 30.5... and it'll probably go over. WE are the least graceful losers in the LPL (trending) in their past six with the highest kill per loss while IG have one of the highest kill per wins in any region. WE also have a high kill per win and IG also have a high kill per loss. No matter how you slice it this one is going to be a blood bath.
Invictus have a reputation for punting "when it matters" or seemingly for no reason. Their style of play is also asking for upsets to happen. They really haven't looked sharp recently. Usually when they're clowning around they still dominate but that hasn't always been the case this season... and they're still 22-9!
I'm going to play the plus odds kill spreads and that's it on this matchup. I could see WE taking a game but I was hoping to get better odds on it as these don't meet the threshold for me. I know IG haven't been a strong AMOV team this season but these games are likely going to be high kill blowouts one direction of the other. Probably like a 27-14 and a 24-10 or something like that.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: IG -8.5 kills @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -9.5 kills @ +133 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -10.5 kills @ +158 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: IG -8.5 kills @ +107 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -9.5 kills @ +132 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -10.5 kills @ +158 (0.2 units)
------------------------
Favorites are 57-28, 33-52 ATS
Underdogs have 2-0'd 13 out of 85 matches
39 out of 85 (45.88%) matches have gone to a third game
Trending (since April 1st)
Favorites are 14-11, 7-18 ATS
Underdogs have 2-0'd 6 out of 25 matches (that's almost half the season total)
12 out of 25 (48%) matches have gone to a third game
Warning: With these trends in mind, this slate is VERY chalky to me and we need to factor in motivation heavily in some of these spots so we'll be going against the numbers and "gut" capping quite a bit in these last two days based on my experience. There is going to be a lot fewer numbers for the LCK since a lot of them won't matter in some spots.
vs
Invictus Gaming -478 (-1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
Trends:
Invictus are 10-2 as favorites, 7-5 ATS
Invictus are 4-1, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs BLG, JDG, RNG, V5, OMG)
Team WE are 3-4 as underdogs, 3-4 ATS
Team WE are 3-2, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
The kill total for this series is an obscene 30.5... and it'll probably go over. WE are the least graceful losers in the LPL (trending) in their past six with the highest kill per loss while IG have one of the highest kill per wins in any region. WE also have a high kill per win and IG also have a high kill per loss. No matter how you slice it this one is going to be a blood bath.
Invictus have a reputation for punting "when it matters" or seemingly for no reason. Their style of play is also asking for upsets to happen. They really haven't looked sharp recently. Usually when they're clowning around they still dominate but that hasn't always been the case this season... and they're still 22-9!
I'm going to play the plus odds kill spreads and that's it on this matchup. I could see WE taking a game but I was hoping to get better odds on it as these don't meet the threshold for me. I know IG haven't been a strong AMOV team this season but these games are likely going to be high kill blowouts one direction of the other. Probably like a 27-14 and a 24-10 or something like that.
Map 1:
Kill Spread: IG -8.5 kills @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -9.5 kills @ +133 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -10.5 kills @ +158 (0.2 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: IG -8.5 kills @ +107 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -9.5 kills @ +132 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: IG -10.5 kills @ +158 (0.2 units)
------------------------
LCK (Korea)
LCK Trends:Favorites are 57-28, 33-52 ATS
Underdogs have 2-0'd 13 out of 85 matches
39 out of 85 (45.88%) matches have gone to a third game
Trending (since April 1st)
Favorites are 14-11, 7-18 ATS
Underdogs have 2-0'd 6 out of 25 matches (that's almost half the season total)
12 out of 25 (48%) matches have gone to a third game
Warning: With these trends in mind, this slate is VERY chalky to me and we need to factor in motivation heavily in some of these spots so we'll be going against the numbers and "gut" capping quite a bit in these last two days based on my experience. There is going to be a lot fewer numbers for the LCK since a lot of them won't matter in some spots.
Week 9 - Day 1
KT Rolster +162 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
Gen.G -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Trends:
Gen.G are 13-4 as favorites, 9-8 ATS
Gen.G are 2-3, 1-4 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
KT Rolster are 6-5 as underdogs, 8-3 ATS
KT Rolster are 4-1, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs. T1, DRX, AF, DWG, HLE)
This is a weird match because KT don't really have anything to play for as they're locked into the #4 seed regardless of result but everyone wants to take down the top dog and this is a crew of veterans. KT might also mix it up and do something wild here just to throw teams off for playoffs while Gen.G are still battling to retain their #1 spot after punting it in an outright loss to Hanwha Life.
I'm going to lay the money on Gen.G here. Something tells me that wake-up call will make them take this seriously. Keep in mind that KT Rolster, while our underdog darlings of the LCK this split, are still not in the same echelon as the elite three even if they're the best of the rest.
The numbers suggest that this total is about right but I have a feeling this could end up a bit more competitive than it might look so I'm going to go half weight on the OVER totals particularly if KT try something weird. It's really not hard for one strange fight to happen even when two good teams are involved and with a total this low that's all it takes to hit an over. 19.5 kills is like the LOL equivalent to an NFL total of 36.5 or something extremely low. This is a hunch/gut handicap. Tail at your own discretion.
Moneyline: Gen.G -222 (2.22 units)
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +152 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +144 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +170 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ +105 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ +128 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +147 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +167 (0.1 units)
----
KT Rolster +162 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
Gen.G -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Trends:
Gen.G are 13-4 as favorites, 9-8 ATS
Gen.G are 2-3, 1-4 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
KT Rolster are 6-5 as underdogs, 8-3 ATS
KT Rolster are 4-1, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs. T1, DRX, AF, DWG, HLE)
This is a weird match because KT don't really have anything to play for as they're locked into the #4 seed regardless of result but everyone wants to take down the top dog and this is a crew of veterans. KT might also mix it up and do something wild here just to throw teams off for playoffs while Gen.G are still battling to retain their #1 spot after punting it in an outright loss to Hanwha Life.
I'm going to lay the money on Gen.G here. Something tells me that wake-up call will make them take this seriously. Keep in mind that KT Rolster, while our underdog darlings of the LCK this split, are still not in the same echelon as the elite three even if they're the best of the rest.
The numbers suggest that this total is about right but I have a feeling this could end up a bit more competitive than it might look so I'm going to go half weight on the OVER totals particularly if KT try something weird. It's really not hard for one strange fight to happen even when two good teams are involved and with a total this low that's all it takes to hit an over. 19.5 kills is like the LOL equivalent to an NFL total of 36.5 or something extremely low. This is a hunch/gut handicap. Tail at your own discretion.
Moneyline: Gen.G -222 (2.22 units)
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +152 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ +115 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +144 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +170 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ +105 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ +128 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +147 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +167 (0.1 units)
----
Afreeca Freecs +299 (+1.5 @ -123)
vs
T1 -469 (-1.5 @ -123)
Trends:
T1 are 10-4 as favorites, 8-6 AATS
T1 are 3-2, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
Afreeca are 1-5 as underdogs, 4-2 ATS
Afreeca are 1-4, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs DRX, DWG, GEG, T1, GEG
Remember when Afreeca was the 4th place team and they were spicy and awesome? This team has exactly the same trajectory as an NFL team that had a quarterback that had one or two good games and then started sucking and the team just quit on them but now the backup is in and they're a bit reinvigorated. That's been the case with Fly vs All-In. The thing is, Afreeca are done for this season. They can no longer make playoffs OR be relegated so they've got nothing to play for but jobs and pride.
Again, everyone wants to take down the kings but after T1 and some of the other elite teams have had some upsets recently I'd think that they sharpen up before playoffs. T1, DragonX, and Gen.G are all capable of landing anywhere from #1 to #3 so I'd expect them all to be competing.
It's tough to gauge "value" in spots like this. Everyone wants to beat the top dogs and there's plenty of rivalry here. Sometimes a team with nothing to lose can be a dangerous thing but T1 are just so disciplined and machine-like that I honestly expect them to come in here and utterly destroy Afreeca. Afreeca have looked better but this team just has a weird "ehh whatever this shit's over" vibe to them.
When I look at this series the first thing that comes to mind is that T1 destroying Afreeca in like 50 minutes even with subs in would be the most T1 thing I could imagine. This team doesn't screw around. It's what's made them good through every iteration over the years.
I'm going with the kill spreads and UNDER as well. For the sake of my own wrists I'll spare you the numbers but spreads are good up to 9.5 and regardless of who wins these games both of these teams WANT to be winning quickly for the most part this season. Most of Afreeca's long games have been leads gone wrong. I don't even think they get a lead but if they do I'd expect it to close quickly given the comps they like. 33:00 is too high.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -112 (1.12 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -106 (0.318 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +124 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +167 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -114 (0.342 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +160 (0.1 units)
----
Sandbox Gaming +237 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
DAMWON Gaming -342 (-1.5 @ -102)
Trends:
DAMWON are 7-3 as favorites, 5-5 ATS
DAMWON are 3-2, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites (same matches)
Sandbox are 2-8 as underdogs, 5-5 ATS
Sandbox are 1-4, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs KT, T1, GEG, DRX, AF)
SANDBOX actually have the motivation edge in this spot since they're playing to avoid the last relegation spot (9th place) against Hanwha and APK. DAMWON are also locked into the 5th playoff seed regardless of this result. DAMWON have been a wildly inconsistent team this season and while it might be right to assume a "get on the right track" spot to prepare for playoffs, this team has rarely done what we've expected them to this season.
Again, I said these last two days would be a lot of "gut" handicapping since the trends don't matter nearly as much once motivation comes into question. I'm almost positive SANDBOX take a game here but it should be noted that there is a bit of a rivalry between these two as well.
The "first thought that popped into my mind" handicap of this game is SANDBOX demolish game one, and are ahead in game two but somehow lose the series which will leave us all thinking "what in the actual hell DAMWON how are you a playoff team" and then they'll find a way to completely smash KT Rolster because everything that team does makes zero sense this year.
Seriously though I think SANDBOX take a game and that these games could get scrappy. I'm taking the plus money totals OVER and an "underdog special."
Spread: SANDBOX +1.5 maps @ -179 (1.79 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: SANDBOX +237 (0.5 units) (Nitrogen)
Spread: SANDBOX -1.5 maps @ +494 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +117 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +139 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +162 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +100 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +120 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +143 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
vs
T1 -469 (-1.5 @ -123)
Trends:
T1 are 10-4 as favorites, 8-6 AATS
T1 are 3-2, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
Afreeca are 1-5 as underdogs, 4-2 ATS
Afreeca are 1-4, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs DRX, DWG, GEG, T1, GEG
Remember when Afreeca was the 4th place team and they were spicy and awesome? This team has exactly the same trajectory as an NFL team that had a quarterback that had one or two good games and then started sucking and the team just quit on them but now the backup is in and they're a bit reinvigorated. That's been the case with Fly vs All-In. The thing is, Afreeca are done for this season. They can no longer make playoffs OR be relegated so they've got nothing to play for but jobs and pride.
Again, everyone wants to take down the kings but after T1 and some of the other elite teams have had some upsets recently I'd think that they sharpen up before playoffs. T1, DragonX, and Gen.G are all capable of landing anywhere from #1 to #3 so I'd expect them all to be competing.
It's tough to gauge "value" in spots like this. Everyone wants to beat the top dogs and there's plenty of rivalry here. Sometimes a team with nothing to lose can be a dangerous thing but T1 are just so disciplined and machine-like that I honestly expect them to come in here and utterly destroy Afreeca. Afreeca have looked better but this team just has a weird "ehh whatever this shit's over" vibe to them.
When I look at this series the first thing that comes to mind is that T1 destroying Afreeca in like 50 minutes even with subs in would be the most T1 thing I could imagine. This team doesn't screw around. It's what's made them good through every iteration over the years.
I'm going with the kill spreads and UNDER as well. For the sake of my own wrists I'll spare you the numbers but spreads are good up to 9.5 and regardless of who wins these games both of these teams WANT to be winning quickly for the most part this season. Most of Afreeca's long games have been leads gone wrong. I don't even think they get a lead but if they do I'd expect it to close quickly given the comps they like. 33:00 is too high.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -112 (1.12 units)
Map 1:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -106 (0.318 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +124 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +167 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -7.5 kills @ -114 (0.342 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -8.5 kills @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: T1 -9.5 kills @ +160 (0.1 units)
----
Sandbox Gaming +237 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
DAMWON Gaming -342 (-1.5 @ -102)
Trends:
DAMWON are 7-3 as favorites, 5-5 ATS
DAMWON are 3-2, 3-2 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites (same matches)
Sandbox are 2-8 as underdogs, 5-5 ATS
Sandbox are 1-4, 2-3 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs KT, T1, GEG, DRX, AF)
SANDBOX actually have the motivation edge in this spot since they're playing to avoid the last relegation spot (9th place) against Hanwha and APK. DAMWON are also locked into the 5th playoff seed regardless of this result. DAMWON have been a wildly inconsistent team this season and while it might be right to assume a "get on the right track" spot to prepare for playoffs, this team has rarely done what we've expected them to this season.
Again, I said these last two days would be a lot of "gut" handicapping since the trends don't matter nearly as much once motivation comes into question. I'm almost positive SANDBOX take a game here but it should be noted that there is a bit of a rivalry between these two as well.
The "first thought that popped into my mind" handicap of this game is SANDBOX demolish game one, and are ahead in game two but somehow lose the series which will leave us all thinking "what in the actual hell DAMWON how are you a playoff team" and then they'll find a way to completely smash KT Rolster because everything that team does makes zero sense this year.
Seriously though I think SANDBOX take a game and that these games could get scrappy. I'm taking the plus money totals OVER and an "underdog special."
Spread: SANDBOX +1.5 maps @ -179 (1.79 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: SANDBOX +237 (0.5 units) (Nitrogen)
Spread: SANDBOX -1.5 maps @ +494 (0.25 units)(Nitrogen)
Map 1:
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +117 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +139 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +162 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +100 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +120 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +143 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
------------------------
Other Leagues
none yet
--------------------
Parlays:
Parlay (2): Gen.G ML + T1 ML @ -130 (1.3 units)
Parlay (3): Gen.G ML + T1 ML + EDG ML @ +142 (1 unit)
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