Betting: March 31st (LCK, LPL, NA LCS)

LCK Spring 2019 - W10D4:

You could make an argument for taking Jin Air here because Griffin has nothing to play for but Jin Air are locked into the #10 seed so the only inpsiration for them is bench players battling for jobs. The problem is they're bench players against Griffin. There isn't any value here unless you think Jin Air steal a game. I'm not touching this one.

No wager

I desperately want to like KT Rolster here but they got utterly smoked by a Hanwha team that had nothing to play for while they were battling to avoid relegation so it's really hard for me to trust them not just to show up for this, but to actually do well enough if they show up. It's seriously sad that this team is this bad and it's frustrating. They remind me a lot of the Jacksonville Jaguars. A great roster that basically just quits on their season a couple games in when they realize their quarterback isn't worth putting your body on the line for. Except the Blake Bortles in this situation is the two ADC's. Let's see KT Forg1ven or something or ZWuji next season! I'm not going to touch this game. I really want to bet KT but my brain is telling me DAMWON are going to do exactly what they did to Gen.G and smash. This is one of the benefits to having subs that are playing for a job. Just like we saw against Gen.G they have a lot to prove for next split. DAMWON don't want to finish on a bad note especially as a new team to the LCK and just like the Sandbox discussion we had yesterday newer teams tend to not coast into playoffs in the years they do that, in every region.

"Gut": KT Rolster ML (light)(initial)

Confidence: 1.5/5 (handicap), 1.0/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 1.5/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: DAMWON -1.5 @ +123 (2 units)

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LPL Spring 2019 - W10D6:

This one is really tough. Two teams that have been colossal disappointments and before this morning one was going to be a MUST WIN situation... but SinoDragon have locked their playoff spot with a BiliBili loss this morning so it's really really difficult to get a feel for this one. My instinct tells me that Suning are going to want to end this incredibly disappointing split on a good note if for no other reason than their psychology going into summer. I think these teams are kind of even as it is and in a similar tier. I've had them both in the same spot all season. I'm actually going to take a one unit flier on Suning here. SinoDragon are going to want to avoid showing anything while Suning have nothing to lose. I know SinoDragon are going to want to go into playoffs on a good note but there's a certain amount of taking your foot off the gas when you don't need to win a series and almost everyone is guilty of it. This should be even money so we'll take the couple points of value we're getting on the dog.

Gut": Suning ML (light)

Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 3/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Suning Gaming +103 (1 unit)

The toilet bowl... I mean jeez it's a good thing DAMWON and KT will be on because there's no way I'd stay awake for this one. The correct move here is probably to just take Vici because I don't think OMG are -154 better than anybody but this could also be a spot for the patented "bet both 2-0's" because it's arguably the two worst teams in the LPL. 

On second thought I think I've been too timid with betting bad team games this season and it's something I was profitable at last season. I should probably put a couple units on Vici here. The more I look at this Vici actually have better metrics almost entirely across the board in vision, damage, gold, and they've had a slightly more steady roster than OMG. I think OMG have the best player in the series in Icon which is often my tiebreaker in situations like this but honestly OMG shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone. I'm going to do a really weird bet here and take the Vici ML for two units. Never in a million years did I think I'd do that but the value is right, they get selection, and honestly is OMG this much better? The answer is no.

Gut": Vici ML (light)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 3/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap),  1.0/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Vici Gaming +115 (2 units)

JD can't catch Royal for the #4 seed and a bye past the first round and neither can WE so there really isn't a whole lot to play for here unless you want to come up with some narrative about avoiding EDG (I honestly kinda think there is something to that, EDG is so much better than these first round teams). This is a tough game to pin down. We don't know who is going to care, who is going to mail it in and honestly even if these teams had everything to play for this would be a close series. The correct play is probably to take the underdog in this situation because given nothing really matters, unless you think avoiding EDG matters which is maybe a thing, you should just take the plus money. I'm going to put a unit on WE here mostly just because I feel it's stupid for this not to be even money. JDG might be an ever so slightly better team but with side selection and both teams in the exact same situation there's no reason they should be favored by this much.

Gut": Team WE ML (light)

Confidence: 3.0/5 (handicap), 2.5/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap),  0.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Team WE +110 (1 unit)

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NA LCS Playoffs Round 1 Day 2:

This was our unified bonus pick of the week on the podcast so you can go listen for more details but the long nad short of it is that we think TSM are clearly the #3 team and a full tier above the rest of the pack but a full tier below Team Liquid and Cloud 9. John had Echo Fox as the worst team in the league and while I wasn't quite that low on them I sincerely expected this team to finish 9th before this weird run they had to end the season. On one hand you could argue that the momentum is in favor of Echo Fox here but on the other you need to just look at what's being handed to you. I think you bet the 3-0 and if you're a pessimist you bet the 3-1 TSM win. There's a case to be made for a game being dropped by TSM as they "test the waters" in a five game series trying something out but they aren't the type of team to do that. I actually feel really strongly that TSM 3-0 this and as John said, "I think TSM would win every game in a best of ten." TSM are so much better than this team and I'm willing to risk the Echo Fox chaos for plus odds on this.

Gut": TSM -2.5 (moderate)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0 /1.5 (handicap),  0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: TSM -2.5 maps @ +132 (4 units)